第24届毕马威全球汽车高管调研（英）

24thAnnualGlobalAutomotiveExecutiveSurvey

GettingrealabouttheEVtransition

It’sstillanexciting—andrewarding—journey,butitmaytakelongerandtheridewon’tbesmooth.

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

/automotive

Contents

Foreword

03

Mainfindings

04

Theglobaloutlook

06

Powertrains

09

Digitalconsumers

15

Supplychains

19

Technology

23

Whattodonow

30

HowKPMGcanhelp

31

Respondentprofile

32

Abouttheauthor

34

KPMGcontacts

35

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2

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Foreword

Our24thAnnualKPMGGlobalAutomotiveExecutiveSurveycomesatapivotalmomentforautomakers.Thebusinessopportunitieshaveneverseemedgreater,drivenbyadvancesinelectricpowertrains,self-drivingtechnology,andthepromiseofamoremagicalcustomerexperienceinthevehicle.Inthefactory,theshowroom,andone-commercesites,AIandothertechnologiesarechanginghowcarsaremade,sold,andserviced.

Threeyearsago,whenwepublished“Placeyourbillion-dollarbetswisely:Powertrainstrategiesfor

thepost-ICEautomotiveindustry,”welaidoutthechallengesandopportunitiesinthedevelopmentofthemarketforelectricvehicles.Then,evenpredictionsofanalystsdivergedonhowrapidlyEVswouldpenetrateglobalmarkets.1LastyeartherewasstillwidevariationinexpectationsaboutEVuptakeamongexecutivesinourannualsurvey.2

Butourlatestsurveyofmorethan1,000executivesin30countriesandterritories,showsthattheindustryisbecomingmoresoberaboutmarketprospects.HavingcommittedmorethanhalfatrilliondollarstotheEVtransition,theindustryisaskingwhencompanieswillseeareturnontheinvestment.

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Our24thannualsurveyexaminesindetailhowexecutivesentimentischangingandtheconcernsandchallengesthatmakeglobalautomotiveleadersmorecautious.Theupshot:tohelpensurecompaniesend

upaswinners,notlosers,executivesshouldrethinktheirstrategiesandaskthemselvessomeimportantquestions:

IsthecurrentslowdowninthegrowthrateofEVsalesmerelyapauseorasignofamoreprolongedreassessmentbyconsumers?Willtheirenthusiasmberekindledbythenewmodelsabouttohitthemarket?

Howlongwillittaketoturnaprofitonbattery-electricvehicles(BEVs)andwillmanufacturershaveenoughcashtoseethemthrough?

WillgovernmentscontinuetobeabletoaffordtosubsidizethepurchaseofBEVs?

Whatrolewillotherpowertrainchoicessuchashybridsandhydrogenfuelcellsplayinthemarket?

Whatarethestrategicchoicesforsuppliersthatarebeingsqueezedbymarketchanges,newcompetition,andrisingdemandsoforiginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)?Howcantheythrive,notmerelysurvive,inthisnewmarket?

Howmuchshouldautomotivefirmsverticallyintegrate—incaroperatingsystems,batterysupplychains,andcomputerchips?

Findingtherightanswerstotheseandotherstrategicquestionswillhelpdeterminehowcompaniessucceedinthecomingyears.Webelievethatadazzlingfuturefortheautomotivebusiness—withamazingproducts,moredelightedconsumers,andapositiveimpact

ontheplanet—isstillinview.Butgettingtherewillrequireovercomingnear-termchallenges.

GarySilberg

GlobalHeadofAutomotiveKPMGInternational

KPMGInternational,“Placeyourbillion-dollarbetswisely:Powertrainstrategiesforthepost-ICEautomotiveindustry”(December2022)

KPMGInternational,“23rdAnnualGlobalAutomotiveExecutiveSurvey”(July2021)

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Mainfindings

Theglobaloutlook

Lessconfidenceinprofitablegrowth

Slowergrowth,highercosts.Aroundtheworld,autoexecutivesarelessconfidentthattheindustrywillachievemoreprofitablegrowthoverthenextfiveyearsduelargelytoconcernsovertheglobaleconomyandrisingcosts.TheshareofJapaneseexecutivessurveyedwhoareextremelyconfidentdroppedfrom32percentto10percent.Extremelyconfidentrespondentsdroppedfrom31percentto24percentinWesternEuropeandfellfrom48percentto43percentintheUS.OnlyinChinadidextremeconfidencerise,movingfrom28percent

to36percent.Extremeconfidenceamongsuppliersfellfrom56percentto23percent.

Automakersthinktheycanraisepricesin2024.Canthey?MorethantwothirdsofOEMsanticipatea5to10percentpriceincreasein

2024.Independentdealersareevenmorelikelytoanticipatesuchpriceincreases.However,givenrecentpricedeclinesandthehighnumberofnewmodels,webelievethesepriceincreasesmightbemoredifficulttoachievethananticipated.

Powertrains

ExecutiveshaveamorematureviewoftheEVtransition

Gettingrealaboutmarketdevelopment.Threeyearsago,whenweaskedhowmuchshare

ofannualsalesEVsmightcapturein2030,theanswersrangedfrom20percentto80percent.Evenamonganalysts,therewasa1.6Xdifferencebetweenthelowestandhighestestimates.3Nowtherangeofestimateshasnarrowed,asignofgreaterrealism.

Evenso,themeanestimatesforpenetrationroseinthelatestsurvey.InWesternEurope,forexample,respondentslastyearestimatedthatbattery-electricvehicleswouldaccountfor24percentofsalesin2030;thisyeartheconsensusestimatewas30percent.IntheUS,theestimatewentfrom29percentto33percentandinChinatheestimatejumpedfrom24percentto36percent.

Teslaontop.Despitetheflurryofnewmodelsbyestablishedbrands,oursurveyrespondents

stillexpectTeslatoremainontop.TheopeningoftheTeslaGigafactorynearBerlininMarch2022ishelpingTeslagainshareandheighteningawarenessabouttheglobalcompetitionamongEuropeanexecutives.Inoursurvey,moreEuropeanexecutivespredictedthatTeslawouldstayontopthrough2030andfewerpredictedthatBMWandAudiwoulddominate.

Paritystillfaroff.ExecutivesarelessoptimisticthisyearthanlastabouthowsoonEVscanreachcostparitywithconventionalcars(notcountingsubsidies).Inthepreviousyear’ssurvey,70percentofexecutivessaidtheyexpectedparityby2030;inthelatestsurvey,66percentsaidthatwaslikely.However,87percentofChineseOEMexecutivesexpectparityby2030.Thatcompareswith71percentlastyear.

KPMGInternational,“Placeyourbillion-dollarbetswisely:Powertrainstrategiesforthepost-ICEautomotiveindustry”(July2021)

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4

Digitalconsumers

Customerexperienceisakeydifferentiator

Seamlessandhassle-free.Whileperformanceremainsthemostimportantsellingpoint,aseamlessandhassle-freecustomerexperiencehasmoveduptosecondplace.Theemphasisonasmoothcustomerexperienceextendsfrombuyingthecartohavingseamlessoperatingsoftwareinit,butthelatterisachallengeformanufacturers.Thecar’shardwareisusuallyreliable,thesoftwarelessso.

In-carexperience:thisstuffhastowork.Thesoftware-definedvehicleprovidesanopportunitytosupplyallsortsofdriverapplications.Butconsumers

arenotlikelytosignupforsoftwaresubscriptionsiftheproductsaren’tcompelling.Inthisyear’ssurvey,OEMexecutivesinparticulararelessconfidentthaninpreviousyearsthattheycangeneratesubscriptionrevenue.

Howgoodiscybersecurity?Widelypublicizedbreacheshaveraisedconcernsaboutautomotivecybersecurity.Inoursurvey,executivesarestillconfidentthatautomakersprovideadequatecybersecurityandcustomerdataprotection,buttheymaybeover-confident.

Supplychains

Justincaseisovertakingjustintime

Ongoingsupplyconcerns.Afterthedisruptionsofthepastfewyearsthenewnorminsupplychainmanagementisbecoming“justincase,”ratherthan“justintime.”Companiesarepursuingawiderangeofstrategiestobuildresilienceandthingsarefarbetterthantwoyearsago.Still,thereisahighlevelofconcernaboutthecontinuityofsupplyformanycommoditiesandcomponentsoverthenextfiveyears.

ButnotinChina.Aswesawacrossthesurvey,

inmanyimportantareas,Chinaisdifferent.Thiswasparticularlytrueinsupplychain.Chineseexecutivesareconsiderablylessworriedaboutcontinuityofsupply,likelybecausethecountryhasbeensettingmuchofthesupplyofkeycommodities,particularlyrawmaterialsforEVbatteriesandEVcomponents.

Technology

Thetechnologychallengesgrowmorecomplex

Lessconfidenceinkeepingup.Inthelatestsurvey,automakersindicatedthattheyfeellesspreparedthanthepreviousyearforadvancedtechnologies,suchasartificialintelligence,digitaltwins,andadvancedrobotics.Only12percentofautoexecutivessaidtheyfeltextremelywellprepared,downfrom22percenttheyearbefore.

Thechangeislikelyassociatedwiththerapidadvancesinartificialintelligence,particularlygenerativeAI,whichisexpectedtobringautomationtowhite-collarjobs.AutomakersaregoingtohavetotrainmoreworkerstotakeadvantageofAIinallitsforms.Indeed,automakerswillbecompetingwitheachotherandwithcompaniesacrossindustriesfortalentwithAIskills.AsnotedintherecentKPMGreport,“Futureofwork,”companiesthatmaster

AIquickestwilllikelyhaveasignificantcompetitiveadvantage.4

Hedgingpowertrainbets.Whenitcomestopowertraintechnology,thisyearmorecompaniesseemtobehedgingtheirbets.Hybridtechnologieshavejumpedfromfourthtosecondplaceoverallintechnologyinvestments.

Partners—and“frenemies”?Choosingtherighttechnologypartnerstoacceleratedevelopmentandsharerisksremainsfundamentaltoautomotivestrategy.Atthesametime,automakersexpecttechgiantstojumpintotheautomarket.Appleisthenumberonepotentialcompetitor,butthelistislong,includingGoogle,Samsung,Baidu,andothers.

KPMGInternational,“Futureofwork”(November2023)

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5

Theglobaloutlook

Executivesworldwidearelessconfidentthanbeforethattheindustrywillachievemoreprofitablegrowthoverthenextfiveyears.Overall,just34percentofexecutivessaidtheyareextremelyconfidentthattheycanachieveprofitablegrowthinthenextfiveyearsversus41percentinthepreviousyear.AmongJapaneseexecutives,thesharewhowere“extremelyconfident”fell22points,from

32percentto10percent.Confidencealsofell(butlesssharply)intheUSandWesternEurope.

Supplierswerethemostdownbeatgroup.Theshareofrespondentsfromsupplierfirmswhosaidtheyareextremelyconfidentaboutachievingprofitablegrowthtumbledfrom55percentto23percent.

Expectationsforprofitablegrowthareweakening(exceptinChina)

Howconfidentorconcernedareyouthattheindustrywillachievemoreprofitablegrowthoverthenextfiveyears?

Industryconfidenceinprofitablegrowth:Breakdownforrespondentsratingextremelyconfident

Japan

WesternEurope

Extremelyconfident

Extremelyconfident

32%

31%

10%

24%

US

China

Extremelyconfident

Extremelyconfident

48%

28%

36%

43%

2022

2023

Thischangeinsentimentisremarkable.Justayearago,executiveswereexcitedabouttheprospectsfortransformingtheindustrywithnewkindsofcars.Now,theyremainoptimistic,buttheyaremoresoberabouthowdifficultitwillbetomanagethetransitionandpreserveorincreaseprofits.

Thereasonsforconcernareclear.Companieshavemadehugebetsonelectricpropulsionandareincreasinglyconcernedaboutnear-termheadwindsthatcouldpostponethepayoff.WhileafloodofnewEVmodelsiscomingto

market,demandhasweakenedandsomeplayersmaycomeunderextremepressureascompetitionintensifies.

Thisyear,executivesseemlessconcernedabouttheeconomythanlastyear.TheshareofUSrespondentswhosaidthattheyareextremelyconcernedabouttheimpactofhighinterestrates,energyprices,andinflationfellfrom35percentin2022to27percentin2023.AmongGermanexecutivestheshareofextremelyconcernedrespondentsfellfrom30percentto16percent.

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ThepictureisdifferentinChina.Theshareofautoexecutiveswhoareextremelyconcernedabouttheeconomyrosefrom10percentto14percent.

Yet,whileChineseexecutivesaremoreconcerned

Achievingprofitabilityinahighlycompetitiveandrapidlyevolvingmarketwillrequire

carmakerstoremainagileandinnovative.Besidesshapingbrandrecognition,manufacturersneedtoinvestincostoptimizationstrategies,includingsupplychainefficiency,AI-infusedmanufacturing,andthereductionofbatteryproductioncosts,toensurehealthyrevenuestreams.Ultimately,thecompaniesthatcandeliverhigh-qualityBEVsatanaffordableprice,whilemaintainingahealthybrandvalue,canemergeasthemarginwinnersinthemarket.

Dr.AndreasRies

GlobalLeadPartner,Consulting

KPMGinGermany

abouttheimpactofhighinterestrates,energycosts,andinflation,theshareofChineseexecutiveswhoareextremelyconfidentthatprofitswillgrowoverthenextfiveyearshasrisen.

Inmostregions,economicconcernsaremoderating

Howconcernedareyouthathigherenergyprices,highinterestrates,andinflationwilladverselyimpactyourbusinessin2024?

Outlookoneconomicpressuresimpactingautomotivebusinessesin2024

2023Sentiment,allrespondents

Netsentimentchangebyregionfrom2022to2023

Extremelyconcerned

China

23%

-26%

RestofWorld

Somewhatconcerned

-62%

51%

-68%

WesternEurope

Neutral

NorthAmerica

-68%

12%

Japan/SouthKorea

-69%

Nottooconcerned

-69%

EasternEurope

11%

-73%

IndiaandASEAN

Notconcernedatall

3%

SouthAmerica

-79%

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Despiteeconomicuncertainty,manyexecutivesstillexpectcarpricestocontinuetorise.Two-thirdsofautomakersanticipatepriceincreasesof5to10percentin2024.Butautomakersshouldconsidercarefullywhether

theseexpectationsarerealistic.Withrisingcompetitionanddeclininginflationarypressure,theirabilitytochargemorefortheircarsin2024maybelimited.

Automakersareconfidentthattheycanraisepricesin2024

Ayearfromnow,wheredoyouseepricesgoingonaverage?

Automotivesectorpriceoutlook2024

Upmorethan10%

13%

Up5%–10%

64%

Similartotoday

18%

Down5%–10%

4%

Downmorethan10%

<1%

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Powertrains

Twoyearsago,whenweaskedwhatpercentageofnewcarsaleswouldbeEVsin2030,wegotahugerangeofresponses,fromaslowas20percenttoasmuchas80percent.Thisyear,therangeofestimateshasnarrowedconsiderably,indicatingthatexecutiveshavedevelopedamoremature—andrealistic—viewofhowquicklyEVpenetrationwilloccur.EVmarketsharegainsarealsoafunctionofslowergrowthinoverallautosales—EVsalesaregrowingrapidly,buttotalsalesareplateauing.5

Accordingtooursurvey,ChinaisexpectedtohavethehighestpenetrationofEVsin2030—36percentofnewcarsales.RespondentsexpectpenetrationintheUS,Japan,andWesternEuropetoreach30to33percent.PenetrationisexpectedtobeslowerinIndiaandBrazil,withsaleslimitedbypoorelectricityinfrastructureandlowerincomes.TheestimateofEVpenetrationbyexecutivesinoursurveyarefarbelowthoseofcleanenergyadvocates.TheRockyMountainInstituteinlate2023predictedthatEVswouldaccountformorethantwo-thirdsofglobalautosalesby2030.6

TheEVpenetrationoutlookismaturing—withlessvariationinestimatesmarketsharefor2030

By2030,whatpercentageofnewvehiclessalesdoyoubelievewillbebattery-powered(excludinghybrids)withineachmarket?

EstimatedEVmarketsharein2030

MeanestimateofEVpenetrationbymarket

China

36%

USA

33%

Japan

32%

WesternEurope

30%

India

20%

Brazil

19%

Distributionbymarket:Mean,median,andrange

100

ofresponses

80

60

%

40

20

0

Brazil

China

India

Japan

USA

Western

Europe

Meanvalue

Medianvalue

Rangevalue

Whenaskedwhichcompaniestheyexpecttodominatethemarketforbattery-electricvehiclesin2030,Teslacameoutontop,stretchingitsleadconsiderablyastheperceivednumberone.BMWisadistantsecond,andAudiisthird.Mercedes-Benzisfifth,followedbyBYD.Toyotahasmoveduptoseventhplace.

TheshiftinperceptionisparticularlymarkedinWesternEurope,where148executivesnowexpectTeslatorankfirstorsecondin2030,comparedwithonly66and57respectivelyforBMWandAudi.EuropeancompaniesusedtobeskepticalofTesla’smarketpower,butthatchangedafter

thecompany’sassemblyplantopenedinBerlininMarch2022.In2023,Tesla’sModelYwassettobethebiggestsellingmodelinEurope—ofallpowertraintypes.InJapan,Toyotaismakingrapidheadway,whileChina’sBYDisnowaforcetobereckonedwithoutsideitsdomesticmarket.

Therestillseemstobeagooddealoffearanduncertaintyaboutwhocanmakeitintothetopten—andwhocansecureaprofitableshareofmarket.Apple,whichhasnotevenconfirmedthatitwillenterthemarket,isnowexpectedtobeinfourthplaceby2030(upfromeighthinthepreviousyear’ssurvey).

KPMGInternational,“Automotive:Inthemidstofglobaltransformation”(August2023)

GreenCarReports,StephenEdelstein(September22,2023)

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9

TeslastillreinforcingdominanceinelectricvehiclesinWesternEurope

Lookingoutto2030,whichofthefollowingcompaniesdoyouthinkwillbethemarketleadersinbatteryelectricvehicles?

Respondentpredictions:Futuremarketleadersinbatteryelectricvehiclesby2030

2023

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

148

66

57

35

35

34

31

24

19

11

9

6

5

0

Tesla

2022

61

Tesla

Ranking:1

BMW

Audi

Apple

-

BYD

Toyota

Volkswagen

Ford

Nissan

Honda

-Kia

Porsche

Benz

Hyundai

59

Mercedes

54

39

25

23

20

19

19

17

15

12

10

10

8

6

-Kia

BYDHonda

Baidu

-

Fisker

Rivian

Tata

Toyota

GMChangan

BMW

Audi

Ford

BenzApple

2

Hyundai

Mercedes

Globally,Teslawasbyfarnumberonewith464executivesrespondinginfirstorsecondplacefollowedinnextplacebyBMWwith236executives.

OEMexecutivesandsuppliersaregenerallymuchlessoptimisticthisyearthanlastaboutwhenBEVs,withoutsubsidies,willreachcostparitywithinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles.ThenumberofOEMsthatsaythispointwillbereachedby2030hasgainedtenpercentagepoints.Chinesecompaniesarealreadythemostefficient

EVmanufacturersand87percentofChineseexecutivesinoursurveyexpectcostparityatorbefore2030.TheRockyMountainInstitutepredictsthatlargeEVssoldintheUSwillachievepriceparityin2026andsmallervehiclesin2029;itpredictsparityinChinaby2025.7

EstimateddateofcostparitybetweenEVsandICEvehiclesismovingfurtherout

Whendoyoubelievebatteryelectricvehicleswillreachcost/affordabilityparitywithICEwithoutanysubsidies?

AnticipateddatesforEVandICEcostparity

Theyalreadyhave

17%

3%

By2025

19%

13%

By2030

36%

By2035

23%

20%

After2035

5%

13%

Never

4%

Don’tknow

2%

2022

2023

GreenCarReports,StephenEdelstein(September22,2023)

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46%

10

Thisyearwesawstrongersupportforsubsidiesandincentivesamongexecutives.Theshareofrespondentsfavoringdirectsubsidiesgrewfrom75percentinthepreviousyear’ssurveyto84percentinthecurrentedition.TheincreaseismostmarkedinWesternEurope,whereautomakersfeeltheheatofcompetitionfromChinaandindustryleadersarecallingforsubsidiestomatchtheonesintheUS.TheshareofEuropeanexecutivesfavoringsubsidiesrosefrom65percentinthepriorsurveyto84percentinthelatestedition.

Supportforsubsidiesisstronger,especiallyinEurope

Somegovernmentsareprovidingdirectconsumersubsidiesforelectricvehicles.Doyouagreewiththispolicy?

SupportforEVsubsidiesintheautomotiveindustryYes

75%

84%

No

21%

12%

Don’tknow

4%

4%

2022

2023

Morerespondentsalsosaidthatincentivesshouldbeofferedatallpricepoints,includingonluxurymodels.Theshareofrespondentswhosaidallbattery-electricvehiclesshouldbesubsidizedjumpedfrom21percentto30percent.However,moregenerousandwidespreadsubsidiesmightnotbeachievableatatimewhengovernmentsareunderpressuretoreducedeficits.

Thereisstillsupportforsubsidyphase-outsonluxuryEVs

Shouldthesubsidiesbephasedoutforvehiclesaboveacertainvehicleprice?

SupportforphasingoutEVsubsidiesintheautomotiveindustry

No,allbatteryelectricvehiclesshouldbesubsidized

30%

Yes,subsidiesshouldphasedoutabove$70,000

31%

Yes,subsidiesshouldphasedoutabove$50,000

27%

Yes,subsidiesshouldphasedoutabove$30,000

10%

Don’tknow

2%

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AnotherperennialconcernaboutEVuptakeisthestateofthecharginginfrastructure.Thewho,how,andwhenofinfrastructurebuildoutstillseemtobeunresolvedquestions.Forexample,whenweaskedwhoisbest

positionedtoownandoperateEVchargingstations,theanswerswerenearlyevenlyspitbetweendedicatedcharging-networkplayers,electricutilities,followedbyTeslaandoilcompanies.

Thechargingmarketisupforgrabs,butTeslahasastrongposition

Whoisbestpositionedtoownandoperateelectricvehiclechargingstations?

PotentialleadersinEVchargingstations

Distributionofresponses:Percentagemean

Chargingnetworks

19%

Electricutilities

19%

Teslasuperchargingnetwork

17%

Existingoilcompanies/existingindependentfuelstations

17%

IndividualOEM/OEMconsortium

14%

Dealers

14%

Other

<1%

Distributionofresponses:Mean,median,andrangeofresponses100

%ofcharging

80

40

60

20

0

ChargingDealers

Electric

Existing

Individual

Other

Tesla

networks

utilities

oil

OEM

supercharging

companies

network

Meanvalue

Medianvalue

Distributionofresponses

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45minutes

60minutes

20minutes

10minutes

Intoday’smarket,Teslaisthechargingleader,withitsownnetworkofsuperchargersinprimelocations.ThenetworkissoeffectivethatotherEVmakershavemadedealstouseTesla’schargingstations.

Thisisanotherexampleofthechangesthatautomakerscontinuetowrestlewith.It’snotenoughtobuildprofitablecars—EVcompetitorsmustalsomakesuretheircustomershaveaccesstocharginginfrastructure.Tesla’s

chargingstationsarefast,convenientandtendtobeinsafeareas.

Pressuretobuildaneffectivechargingnetworkwillonlygrow,becausecarownersarebecomingincreasinglydemandingaboutchargetimesinsecurelocations.Forexample,83percentofUSsurveyrespondentssaythatconsumerswantan80percentchargeinnomorethan30minutes,upfrom65percentinthepreviousyear.

Moreconsumersdemandquickchargetimes,executivessay

Whiletravelingandrunninglowonbatterycharge,howlongwillthetypicalconsumerbewillingtowaitforan80percentageorgreaterrecharge?

Automotiveexecutiveinsightsonconsumerexpectations:EVrechargewaittimes(≥80%)

6%

10%

17%

30%

30minutes43%

42%

26%

11%

8%

6%

2022

2023

Consumersaredemandingfaster

rechargingtimesandamore

reliableelectricinfrastructure

tosupporttheirneeds.Through

strategicpartnershipsand

innovation,automakerscan

cultivateanecosystemofcharging

optionsthatservetheneeds

ofconsumers,drivecustomer

loyalty,andpositionthemselvesfor

successintheyearstocome.

LaurentDesPlaces

Partner,HeadofAutomotive

KPMGinFrance

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Astowherechargingstationswillbelocated,thiswilllargelydependonwherecarownerslive.Iftheyhaveahouseandagarage,theywillchargetheirEVsathome.

However,indenselypopulatedareas—where