农林牧渔行业动态点评：稻麦供需仍偏紧玉米大豆维持宽松

图表4：全球大豆主要产地产量明细数据，主要地区巴西大豆2023/24年度产量预期下修2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24环比2023/24同比巴西大豆产量百万吨114.6122.0119.7128.5139.5130.5162.0156.0155.0-0.6%-4.3%美国大豆产量百万吨116.9120.1120.596.7114.8121.5116.2113.3113.30.0%-2.5%阿根廷大豆产量百万吨55.037.855.348.846.243.925.050.050.00.0%100.0%中国大豆产量百万吨13.615.316.018.119.616.420.320.820.80.0%2.8%巴拉圭大豆产量百万吨0.010.58.510.39.64.210.110.310.30.0%2.5%全球大豆产量百万吨349.3342.1361.0339.0367.8360.4378.1398.2396.9-0.3%5.0%资料来源：USDA、3USDA对美国大豆供需形势预测与上月保持一致。同比来看，2023/24年度美豆期末19.2%2022/231.5pct。美国大豆期末库销比处近1070%的分位数，供应格局或保持宽松。图表5：美国大豆供需平衡表2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24环比2023/24同比美国大豆期初库存百万吨5.48.211.924.714.37.07.57.27.20.0%-3.7%美国大豆产量百万吨116.9120.1120.596.7114.8121.5116.2113.3113.30.0%-2.5%进口百万吨0.60.60.40.40.50.40.70.80.80.0%22.4%美国大豆总供给百万吨122.9128.9132.8121.8129.6128.9124.4121.4121.40.0%-2.4%国内消费百万吨55.758.960.461.960.962.963.066.066.00.0%4.8%压榨量百万吨51.755.956.958.958.360.060.262.662.60.0%4.0%出口百万吨59.058.147.745.761.758.654.246.846.80.0%-13.7%美国大豆总消费百万吨114.7116.9108.1107.6122.6121.5117.2112.8112.80.0%-3.7%美国大豆期末库存百万吨8.211.924.714.37.07.57.28.68.570.0%19.2%美国大豆库销比7.2%10.2%22.9%13.3%5.7%6.2%6.1%7.6%7.6%0.0%1.5%资料来源：USDA、32023/243月农村2023/24年度中国大豆供需形势预测与上月保持一致。2023/24年度中国大豆期80.2%，中国大豆供需格局趋紧形势或不改。图表62016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24环比2023/24同比播种面积亿亩1.11.21.31.41.51.31.51.61.60.0%2.2%收获面积亿亩1.11.21.31.41.51.31.51.61.60.0%2.2%单产公斤/亩119.7123.5127.0129.0132.2130.1132.0132.7132.70.0%0.6%产量百万吨12.915.316.018.119.616.420.320.820.80.0%2.8%进口百万吨93.594.182.698.599.890.398.797.397.30.0%-1.5%消费百万吨108.1107.1102.9108.6113.3108.0114.2117.0117.00.0%2.5%压榨消费百万吨92.90.086.791.095.090.595.997.897.80.0%1.9%食用消费百万吨11.20.012.513.814.213.614.315.015.00.0%4.7%种子用量百万吨0.70.00.80.80.80.90.90.90.90.0%2.2%损耗及其他百万吨3.40.02.93.03.33.03.03.33.30.0%10.0%出口百万吨0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.0%66.7%结余变化百万吨-1.82.2-4.47.96.1-1.44.70.90.90.0%-80.2%资料来源：农业农村部、玉米：产量预期小幅下修，供应格局仍较宽松南非等地产量预期下修，期末库销比下调。3月，USDA2023/24年度全球玉米产23312.3下修影响。其中南非玉米减产主要因其单产预期降低；墨西哥玉米产量预期因其冬季玉米100万吨；从最新的收成报告考虑，3USDA100万吨。阿根廷341.9014812.11452.022023/242433.200.2pct22.6%1060%分位数，全球玉米供需格局仍较宽松。同比来看，2023/246.0%、期末库销2022/230.2pct。图表7：全球玉米供需平衡表2023/242023/24二月三月2023/242023/242016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23预测预测环比同比百万吨292.9百万吨292.9310.7300.3301.60.5%-2.9%期初库存全球玉米产量百万吨 1123.41080.11124.91120.11129.41218.71157.51232.61230.2-0.2%6.3%进口百万吨 135.6149.9164.4167.7184.9184.4172.6189.8189.5-0.2%9.8%全球玉米总供给百万吨 1570.51582.01630.31610.21621.71696.01640.81722.61721.3-0.1%4.9%饲料消费百万吨 656.1672.4703.9716.0723.9745.2729.6761.8761.60.0%4.4%国内消费百万吨 1084.11090.51144.81136.21144.01201.11166.61210.81212.20.1%3.9%出口百万吨 160.1148.2181.7172.3182.7206.6180.2200.8202.30.7%12.3%全球玉米总消费百万吨 1244.21238.71326.51308.41326.71407.71346.81411.61414.50.2%5.0%全球玉米 350.8 341.6321.1306.4292.8百万吨310.5301.6322.1319.6-0.8%6.0%期末库存全球玉米库销比 28.2% 27.6%24.2%23.4%22.1%22.1%22.4%22.8%22.6%-0.2pct0.2pct

311.5 352.0 341.0 322.4 307.4资料来源：USDA、图表8：阿根廷玉米产量预测及环比 图表9：墨西哥玉米产量预测及环比(百万吨) 阿根廷玉米产量预测 环比575656555554542023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/1532023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/1

2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%2024/30.0%2024/3

(百万吨) 墨西哥玉米产量预测 环比2827262524232023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/2222023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/2

0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%-3.5%-4.0%2024/3-4.5%2024/3资料来源：USDA、 资料来源：USDA、美国玉米供给需求端预测较上月一致，供需格局持续宽松。3月，USDA2023/24年3.903.1614.9%，所有指标较上月均未调整，美国玉米供需格局或仍宽松。图表10：美国玉米供需平衡表2023/242023/24二月三月2023/242023/242016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23预测预测环比同比百万吨期初库存百万吨期初库存44.158.354.456.448.831.435.034.5534.550.0%-1.2%美国玉米产量 百万吨384.8371.1364.3346.0358.5382.9346.7389.69389.690.0%12.4%进口 百万吨1.50.90.71.10.60.61.00.640.640.0%-34.7%美国玉米总供给 百万吨430.4430.3419.3403.4407.8414.9382.7424.88424.880.0%11.0%饲料消费 百万吨138.9134.7137.9149.9142.4145.3139.4144.15144.150.0%3.4%国内消费 百万吨313.8314.0310.5309.6306.7317.1306.0316.37316.37-0.1%3.4%出口 百万吨58.361.952.545.169.862.842.253.3453.340.0%26.4%美国玉米总消费 百万吨372.1375.9362.9354.7376.5379.9348.2369.71369.71-0.1%6.2%美国玉米期百万吨58.354.456.448.831.435.034.655.1755.170.5%59.7%末库存美国玉米库销比15.7%14.5%15.5%13.7%8.3%9.2%9.9%14.9%14.9%0.1pct5.0pct资料来源：USDA、32023/24年度中国玉米供需形势预测与上月保持一致，产需缺口收窄趋32023/24年度中国玉米供需形势预测与上月保持一致。2023/242022/23715万吨；玉米期末结余同比增加110%，2023/24年度国内玉米产需缺口收窄趋势或不改。图表11：中国玉米供需平衡表2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24环比2023/24同比播种面积亿亩6.66.46.36.26.26.56.56.66.60.0%2.7%收获面积亿亩6.66.46.36.26.26.56.56.66.60.0%2.7%单产公斤/亩397.8407.3406.9421.1421.1419.4429.1435.5435.50.0%1.5%产量百万吨263.6259.1257.2260.8260.7272.6277.2288.8288.80.0%4.2%进口百万吨2.53.54.57.629.621.918.717.517.50.0%-6.5%消费百万吨258.8270.3279.8278.3282.2287.7290.5295.0295.00.0%1.5%食用消费百万吨9.39.49.49.49.69.79.89.99.90.0%1.1%饲用消费百万吨169.0172.0176.0174.0180.0186.0188.0191.0191.00.0%1.6%工业消费百万吨66.075.081.082.080.080.081.082.482.40.0%1.7%种子用量百万吨1.91.91.91.91.92.01.91.91.90.0%1.0%损耗及其他百万吨12.612.011.511.010.710.19.89.89.80.0%-0.2%出口百万吨0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%结余变化百万吨7.2-7.7-18.2-9.98.16.75.411.311.30.0%110.2%产需缺口百万吨4.8-11.2-22.6-17.5-21.5-15.2-13.3-6.2-6.20.0%53.7%资料来源：农村农业部、小麦：期末库销比下修，供需格局或趋紧总供给量及总消费量预期齐上调，期末库销比小幅下修，供需格局趋紧或不改。3月，受967.87亿USDA1467.99USDA1442.12总消费增加的幅度，2023/24612.59亿吨，为自2016/17年度以来的最低水平，期末库销比下修0.1pct至25.6%、供需紧张趋势或不改。图表12：全球小麦供需平衡表2023/242023/24二月三月2023/242023/242016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23预测预测环比同比全球小麦245.0262.8287.2281.2298.2284.1272.