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WillChineseStockMarketsMirrortheBehaviouroftheNASDAQ?-Whereisthesolution?ChristopherPollChairman,GreaterChinaConsultancyLtd.,WillChineseStockMarketsMir13QUESTIONSRAISEDHOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?3QUESTIONSRAISEDHOWTODEFIN2HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?

HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATE3

4TheFinancialMarketsareDynamicBusinessis“Proactive”ButRegulatorsare“Reactive”not“ProactiveTheSystemofRegulationandEnforcementcanneverbecompletelyFlexibleandDynamicImportanceofFiduciaryResponsibilityTheFinancialMarketsareDyna5FinancialInfrastructureMAINFACTORSFORFUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutionalManagersCentredaroundPublicInvestorsFinancialInfrastructureGover6【管理类】证券投资学7PRIVATESECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflictofInterest?PRIVATESECTORLawyersAccountan8ConflictofInterestWhoistheclient?WhoaretheFinancialPolicemanResponsibleto?CanRegulationbeProtectwithFinancialPolicemenbeingProactive?ConflictofInterestWhoisthe9INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutualFundsINVESTORSInstitutionalPrivateP10Investors’Confidence

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Investors’EducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestors’Confidence

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Inves11InvestorProtection/Confidence

InvestorProtection/Confidence12Easierandmoreeffectiveenforcement.Increasedefficiencyreducescosts.Improvedflexibilityoftheinfrastructuretorespondeffectivelyandcompetitively.EfficientInfrastructure

Transparency

AccountabilityLeadsto:Easierandmoreeffectiveenfo13AChineseTailorMadeSolutionfortheChineseFundIndustryInvestors’behaviourStockInvestorsFundInvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBCAChineseTailorMadeSolution14

WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?

WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNIN15ChineseQuotedStocksCorporateProfits???NASDAQCorporateProfits???Confidence$$$1995-2000ChineseQuotedNASDAQConfidence16C$IFCONFIDENCEISLOWTHENMONEYFLOWISMINUTEC$IFCONFIDENCEISLOWTHENMON17CONFIDENCE$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$IFCONFIDENCEISHIGHTHENMONEYFLOWISLARGECONFIDENCE$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$IF18WhatistheCriteriaForInvesting?WhatistheCriteriaForInves191.Whatdoyouthinkisthemostimportantinfluenceonthestockmarketin

Chinatoday?Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofitandlossaccountsofthequotedcompanies-6Thefutureprospectsforcorporateearnings-10Governmentpolicy-62Govt.investigationintomalpractices15TheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheChineseeconomy-27China'sentryintotheWTO-81.Whatdoyouthinkisthemo202.Howdoyouasaninvestoranalysethefairvalueofthecompaniesyoubuy&sell?Bypriceearningsratio-35Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5Bythelatestrumour-58Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin-21Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-92.Howdoyouasaninvestora213.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratiofornon-technologystocks?under15times-015to25times-18

above25-1103.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbe224.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratio?under15times-015to25times-125to50-16over50-1114.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbe235.Howdoyoumeasureinvestmentrisk?Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock-31Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket-42Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13Bycomparingwithandadjustingfora"riskfree"measuresuchasadepositrate-85.Howdoyoumeasureinvestme24AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiAsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?mostthinkitwillbeabove2500Todayitis2140Atwhatleveldoyouthinkthe25AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiBsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?mostthinkitwillbeabove200Todayitis183Atwhatleveldoyouthinkthe26IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREAS27FactorsEffectingInvestmentTimeHorizonsConfidenceinLongTermTrendsConfidenceinInformationDisclosureVolatilityofMarketsLiquidityofMarketsProfitForecastPublicScrutinyofPerformanceFactorsEffectingInvestmentT28EACM100:EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlideEACM100:EqualWeighted(Reba29【管理类】证券投资学30ChinaversusWesternMarketsLimitedsenseofAccountabilityLittleUnderstandingofRiskChineseBusinessPhilosophyReluctancetoIncentiviseExecutiveManagersEntrepreneursUnderstandCause&ConsequenceRiskisFullyUnderstoodShareholderAccou

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