美联储褐皮书：当前经济状况评论（2023年1月）-英

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Wednesday

January18,2023

TheBeigeBook

SummaryofCommentaryonCurrentEconomicConditions

ByFederalReserveDistrict

January2023

FederalReserveDistricts

Minneapolis

Boston

NewYork

ChicagoCleveland

SanFrancisco

Philadelphia

St.Louis

KansasCity

Richmond

Atlanta

Dallas

AlaskaandHawaii

arepartofthe

SanFranciscoDistrict.

TheSystemservescommonwealthsandterritoriesasfollows:theNewYorkBankservestheCommonwealthofPuertoRicoandtheU.S.VirginIslands;theSanFranciscoBankservesAmericanSamoa,Guam,andtheCommonwealthoftheNorthernMarianaIslands.

ThisreportwaspreparedattheFederalReserveBankofClevelandbasedoninformationcollectedon

orbeforeJanuary9,2023.Thisdocumentsummarizescommentsreceivedfromcontactsoutsidethe

FederalReserveSystemandisnotacommentaryontheviewsofFederalReserveofficials.

NationalSummary

Boston

FirstDistrict

NewYork

SecondDistrict

Philadelphia

ThirdDistrict

Cleveland

FourthDistrict

Richmond

FifthDistrict

Atlanta

SixthDistrict

Chicago

SeventhDistrict

St.Louis

EighthDistrict

Minneapolis

NinthDistrict

KansasCity

TenthDistrict

Dallas

EleventhDistrict

SanFrancisco

TwelfthDistrict

1

A-1

B-1

C-1

D-1

E-1

F-1

G-1

H-1

I-1

J-1

K-1

L-1

WhatistheBeigeBook?

TheBeigeBookisaFederalReserveSystempublicationaboutcurrenteconomicconditionsacrossthe12FederalReserveDistricts.Itcharac-terizesregionaleconomicconditionsandprospectsbasedonavarietyofmostlyqualitativeinformation,gathereddirectlyfromeachDistrict’ssources.Reportsarepublishedeighttimesperyear.

WhatisthepurposeoftheBeigeBook?

TheBeigeBookisintendedtocharacterizethechangeineconomic

conditionssincethelastreport.OutreachfortheBeigeBookisoneofmanywaystheFederalReserveSystemengageswithbusinessesandotherorganizationsabouteconomicdevelopmentsintheircommuni-

ties.Becausethisinformationiscollectedfromawiderangeofcon-

tactsthroughavarietyofformalandinformalmethods,theBeigeBookcancomplementotherformsofregionalinformationgathering.The

BeigeBookisnotacommentaryontheviewsofFederalReserveofficials.

Howistheinformationcollected?

EachFederalReserveBankgathersinformationoncurrenteconomicconditionsinitsDistrictthroughreportsfromBankandBranchdirec-

tors,plusinterviewsandonlinequestionnairescompletedbybusiness-es,communityorganizations,economists,marketexperts,andother

sources.Contactsarenotselectedatrandom;rather,Banksstrivetocurateadiversesetofsourcesthatcanprovideaccurateandobjectiveinformationaboutabroadrangeofeconomicactivities.TheBeige

Bookservesasaregularsummaryofthisinformationforthepublic.

Howistheinformationused?

TheinformationfromcontactssupplementsthedataandanalysisusedbyFederalReserveeconomistsandstafftoassesseconomiccondi-

tionsintheFederalReserveDistricts.Thequalitativenatureofthe

BeigeBookcreatesanopportunitytocharacterizedynamicsandidenti-fyemergingtrendsintheeconomythatmaynotbereadilyapparentintheavailableeconomicdata.Thisinformationenablescomparisonof

economicconditionsindifferentpartsofthecountry,whichcanbehelpfulforassessingtheoutlookforthenationaleconomy.

TheBeigeBookdoesnothavethetypeofinformationI’mlookingfor.Whatotherinformationisavailable?

TheFederalReserveSystemconductsawidearrayofrecurringsur-

veysofbusinesses,households,andcommunityorganizations.AlistofstatisticalreleasescompiledbytheFederalReserveBoardisavailable

here,

linkstoeachoftheFederalReserveBanksareavailable

here,

andasummaryoftheSystem’scommunityoutreachisavailable

here.

Inaddition,

FedListens

eventshavebeenheldaroundthecountryto

hearabouthowmonetarypolicyaffectspeoples’dailylivesandliveli-

hoods.TheSystemalsoreliesonavarietyof

advisorycouncils—

whosemembersaredrawnfromawidearrayofbusinesses,non-profitorganizations,andcommunitygroups—toheardiverseperspectivesontheeconomyincarryingoutitsresponsibilities.

1

NationalSummary

TheBeigeBook■January2023

OverallEconomicActivity

Overalleconomicactivitywasrelativelyunchangedsincethepreviousreport.FiveDistrictsreportedslightormodest

increasesinoverallactivity,sixnotednochangeorslightdeclines,andonecitedasignificantdecline.Onbalance,

contactsgenerallyexpectedlittlegrowthinthemonthsahead.Consumerspendingincreasedslightly,withsomeretail-ersreportingmorerobustsalesovertheholidays.Otherretailersnotedthathighinflationcontinuedtoreduceconsum-ers’purchasingpower,particularlyamonglow-andmoderate-incomehouseholds.Autosaleswereflatonaverage,butsomedealersnotedthatincreasedvehicleavailabilityhadboostedsales.Tourismcontactsreportedmoderatetoro-

bustactivityaugmentedbystrongholidaytravel.Manufacturersindicatedthatactivitydeclinedmodestlyonaverage,

and,inmanyDistricts,reportedthatsupplychaindisruptionshadeased.Housingmarketscontinuedtoweaken,with

salesandconstructiondecliningacrossDistricts.Commercialrealestateactivityslowedslightly,onaverage,withmorenotableweakeningintheofficemarket.Nonfinancialservicesfirmsexperiencedstabledemandonbalance.Mostbank-ersreportedthatresidentialmortgagedemandremainedweak,andsomesaidhigherborrowingcostshadbegunto

dampencommerciallending.Energyactivitycontinuedtoincreasemoderately,andagricultureconditionsweregener-allyunchangedorimproving.

LaborMarkets

EmploymentcontinuedtogrowatamodesttomoderatepaceformostDistricts.OnlyoneDistrictreportedaslight

declineinemployment,andoneotherreportednochangeinemploymentlevels.WhilesomeDistrictsnotedthatlaboravailabilityhadincreased,firmscontinuedtoreportdifficultyinfillingopenpositions.Manyfirmshesitatedtolayoff

employeesevenasdemandfortheirgoodsandservicesslowedandplannedtoreduceheadcountthroughattritionif

needed.Withpersistentlytightlabormarkets,wagepressuresremainedelevatedacrossDistricts,thoughfiveReserveBanksreportedthatthesepressureshadeasedsomewhat.Someemployersnotedtheyhavecontinuedtoofferbonus-esandenhancedbenefitstoattractandretainworkers.

Prices

SellingpricesincreasedatamodestormoderatepaceinmostDistricts,thoughmanysaidthatthepaceofincreaseshadslowedfromthatofrecentreportingperiods.ManufacturersinmanyDistrictsreportedcontinuedeasinginfreightcostsandpricesforcommodities,includingsteelandlumber,thoughsomesaidinputcostsremainedelevated.Manyretailersnotedincreaseddifficultyinpassingthroughcostincreases,suggestinggreaterpricesensitivityonthepartofconsumers.Inaddition,someretailersofferedmorediscountsandpromotionsthantheyhadayearagoinorderto

movemerchandiseandclearoutexcessinventories.Onbalance,contactsacrossDistrictssaidtheyexpectedfuturepricegrowthtomoderatefurtherintheyearahead.

HighlightsbyFederalReserveDistrict

Boston

Businessactivitywasroughlyflat,andemployment

increasedmoderatelyamidseasonalhiring.Pricesin-creasedmodestlyasnonlaborcostpressureseased.Wagegrowthwasaboveaveragedespiteeasierhiringconditions.Tourismactivitypostedstronggains,whilehomesalescontinuedtofall.Theoutlookwasmostlystablebutworsenedslightlyamidrealestatecontacts.

NewYork

Economicactivitycontracted,ledbyanespeciallysharpdeclineinthemanufacturingsector.Jobgrowthslowedandlaborshortageseasedsomewhat,buthiringplansremainedfairlysolid.Wagegrowthremainedmodest,

whilethepaceofinputandsellingpriceincreases

slowed.Housingmarketscontinuedtocool,andloan

demandfell.

2

NationalSummary

Philadelphia

BusinessactivityappearedtodeclineslightlyduringthecurrentBeigeBookperiodafterholdingsteadyforsix

months.Wageandpriceinflationcontinuedtosubside

butstillgrewatamoderatepace.Employmentcontinuedtoriseslightly,althoughhiringplansgrewmorecautious.Currentsentimentfell,butexpectationsimproved.

Cleveland

TheDistrict’seconomyslowedslightlyas2022drewtoacloseamidhighinterestratesandelevatedcostsand

sellingprices.However,theshareofcontactsreportinghighercostsorsellingpricesdeclinednoticeablyfrom

themiddleof2022.Lookingahead,firmsexpectsofterconditionstopersistintheneartermbutstillplantoaddworkerstomeetexistingandexpecteddemandfortheirgoodsandservices.

Richmond

Theregionaleconomycontinuedtogrowataslight

pace,dueinlargeparttomoderategrowthinconsumerspendingasmanufacturing,transportation,realestate,andlendingactivityslowed.Employmentrosemore

modestlythisperiodcomparedtorecentmonthsand

somefirmsnotedhittinglimitsonwageincreases.Pricegrowthremainedelevatedinrecentweeks.

Atlanta

Economicactivitygrewatagradualpace.Labormarkettightnesseased,butwagepressurespersisted.Most

nonlaborcostsmoderated.Retailersreportedhealthy

holidaysales.Autosalesrose.Leisuretravelwasrobust.

Housingdemandfell.Transportationconditionsweak-ened.Overallloangrowthwassteady,butdeposit

growthslowed.Agricultureremainedmixed.

Chicago

Economicactivitydecreasedslightly.Employmentin-

creasedmoderately;consumerandbusinessspending

wereunchanged;nonbusinesscontactssawlittlechangeinactivity;manufacturingdecreasedmodestly;and

constructionandrealestatedecreasedmoderately.

Pricesandwagesrosemoderately,whilefinancialcondi-tionstightenedsome.Agricultureincomeswerestrongin2022.

St.Louis

Economicconditionshaveremainedunchangedsince

ourpreviousreport.Laborshortagesremainedakey

issue,thoughmorecontactsreportedaslightlyeasier

timehiringandretainingworkers.Therateofinputpriceincreasesslowed,andcontactsreportedimprovementsinshippingcostsanddeliverytimes.Consumerspendingandtravelwerebothmixedduringtheholidayseason.

Minneapolis

Economicactivityintheregionexpandedslightlyin

recentweeks.Employmentgrewmodestly,withlabor

demandsofteningbutstillhealthy.Wageandpricepres-suresremainedhighbutlessenedslightly.Holidayshop-pingwasgoodoverallbutstymiedsomewhatbyseverewinterweather.Constructionandrealestatesectors

continuedtostruggle.Inflationandhighlaborcostswerehurtingminority-andwomen-ownedfirms.

KansasCity

EconomicactivityintheTenthDistrictcontinuedtode-clineslightlythroughtheendof2022.Thoughlabordemandcooledfurther,contactsreportedongoingtight-nessandpersistentwagepressures.Consumerspend-ingdeclinedrecently,particularlyforretailersandrestau-rants.Acrossgoodsandservices,pricegrowthslowedtoamoderate,yetstill-brisk,pace.Energyactivityslowedmodestly,facingheadwindsfromfallingoilandgasprices.

Dallas

Modesteconomicgrowthcontinued,withanaccelerationinthemanufacturingsectorbutanabatementintheservicesector.Retailsalesandhomesalesfellfurther,whileoilandgasactivityexpanded.Employmentgrowthcontinuedandwageandpricegrowthstayedelevated.Outlooksweremostlypessimisticexceptfortheenergysector,andmanycontactsvoicedconcernaboutweak-eneddemand,apotentialrecession,andinflation.

SanFrancisco

Economicactivityexpandedmodestly.Employment

levelsgrewatamodestpaceaslaborsupplyimproved.Wagesandpricesremainedelevatedbutroseataslow-erpacerelativetothepreviousreportingperiod.De-

mandforretailgoodsandserviceswasstable.Manufac-turingactivitywasmixed,whileconditionsintheagricul-turesectorremainedweak.Residentialrealestateactivi-tyweakened,andlendingactivityroseslightly.

A-1

FederalReserveBankofBoston

TheBeigeBook.January2023

SummaryofEconomicActivity

BusinessactivityintheFirstDistrictwasroughlyflatonbalance,withcontinuedstrengthintourismandfurtherdeclinesinhomesales.Pricesincreasedmodestly,andmanycontactsreportedthatnonlaborcostpressureshadeasedconsid-erably.Employmentrosemoderately,spurredbyseasonalhiringinretailandhospitality.Wagepressuresremained

substantial.Somefirmssoughtwaystoboostproductivityandprofitability.Homesalesfellsharply,andcommercialleasingandinvestmentactivitywereflat.SoftwareandITservicesfirmsenjoyedmostlystrongandstabledemand.

Outsideofrealestatemarkets,wheretheoutlookweakenedslightly,mostcontactsremainedoptimisticfortheirownprospects,eventhoughsomedeemedarecessionaslikelyfor2023.Nofirmsplannedtomakesignificantlayoffsandmostexpectedpriceincreasestomoderatemovingforward.

LaborMarkets

Employmentincreasedmoderatelyonbalance,spurredbyaseasonaluptickindemandandeasierhiringcondi-tions.Wagegrowthproceededatanabove-average

pace.Aclothingretailerfounditeasierthanexpectedtohireseasonalworkers,especiallypositionsinvolving

remotework,buthadtoofferhiringbonusestoattract

warehouseworkers.Robustconventionactivityand

holidaypartiesgaveamoderateboosttofoodandbev-eragestaffingatBoston-areahotels.Incontrast,airlineindustrycontactsfounditveryhardtofillpositionsandsomerestaurantscuthoursinresponsetopersistent

staffingshortages.Firmsindiversesectorscommentedthatwagegrowthwasaboveaverage(ifmostlystable)andthatemploymentcostscontinuedtoeatintoprofit

margins.Manycontactsplannedtofocusincreasinglyonraisinglaborproductivityandcuttingcosts.Nofirms

plannedtoundertakesignificantstaffingreductions,noteventhosethathadexperiencedweakresultsrecently.

Prices

Pricesincreasedmodestlyonbalance.Mostcontacts

saidthattheiroutputpriceswereflatsincethepreviousreportandthatnonlaborcostpressureshadretreated

substantially.However,hotelroomratesintheGreaterBostonareaincreasedsharplysincethesummer,inpartforseasonalreasons,andlandedwellabovetheiryear-earlierlevels.CapeCodlodgingpricespostedamodestseasonaldecline,buteasilyexceededtheircomparable2019levels.Aclothingretailerpostedhighsingle-digit

markupsearlierthisfallbutofferedpromotionaldis-

countsduringtheholidayshoppingseason.Retailers

andmanufacturersalikecommentedthatnonlaborcostpressureshadeasedconsiderablyinrecentmonths,asthepriceofcontainershipmentsinparticularfellsharplyandsupplychainsimproved.PricesatsoftwareandITfirmswereupmodestlyonaverage,althoughonecon-tactenacted“moreaggressive”priceincreasesinthesecondhalfof2022.Movingforward,somecontacts

expectedtoholdpricesfirmoreventoofferpromotionstoretainbusiness,andothersexpectedtofaceongoingcostpressures—linkedlargelytoemployment—that

couldnecessitatefurtherpricehikes.Onbalance,priceincreaseswereexpectedtomoderate,however.

RetailandTourism

FirstDistrictretailcontactsreportedmixedsales,while

tourismcontactssawstrongincreasesinactivity.A

clothingretailerexperiencedsofterdemandthroughoutmostofthefall,butsalesreboundedduringtheholidayseason,surpassingexpectationsforthatperiod.Cape

Codretailersexperiencedstrongfourthquartersales,

whichacontactattributedtothefactthatremotework

arrangementshaveboostedthenumberofvisitorstotheCapeduringthepost-summermonths.Accordingly,

hospitalitycontactsontheCapeenjoyedarecord-settingfourthquarterforoccupancyandroomrates.Airline

passengertrafficthroughBostonincreasedsteadilyinrecentmonths,reaching93percentofpre-pandemic

A-2

FederalReserveBankofBoston

levels,andcruiseshipactivitythroughBostonandinto

Maineacceleratedduringthesameperiod.TheGreaterBostonhoteloccupancyrateincreasedfurther,returningtopre-pandemiclevels.Conventionactivityalsoin-

creasedsharply,andbookingsinto2023areinlineto

exceed2019levels.Threetourismcontactsexpressed

concernsthatinflationcouldcrimpleisurespendingin

2023,butnonehadseenanyactualsignsofaslowdownyet.

ManufacturingandRelatedServices

RecentresultsweremixedacrossFirstDistrictmanufac-turingcontacts.Atoymanufacturerreportedasharp

declineinrevenuesinthethirdquarter,citinginflation’simpactonlower-incomeconsumersasonecause.A

chemicalmanufacturerfacedweakerdemandfrom

clientsintheconstructionandautomobileindustries,andascompetitorfirmssoughttoshedexcessinventories.Twoconsumergoodsmanufacturershadflatandmoder-atelystrongersalesinDecember,respectively,after

eachhadseenslumpingsalesearlierinthefall;recentsalesbeatseasonalexpectationsinbothcases.Afrozenfoodproducerexperiencedsteadydemanddespitethefactthatithadpostedthreelargepriceincreasesinthelast18months.Onecontactmadeasignificantdown-

wardrevisiontoitscapitalspendingplans,andothersheldplanssteady.Mostcontactsweremoreoptimisticfor2023thantheyhadbeenearlierintheyear.Thetoymanufacturer,however,expectedarecessionin2023andaccordinglyweakersales.

ITandSoftwareServices

Demandwasstrongandstableinthefourthquarter

amongmostcontacts.However,onefirmexperiencedamoderatedeclineinbookingsthatwasnotunexpected,

andthatwasattributedtoaweakeningmacroeconomicenvironment.Contactsreportedyear-over-yearrevenueincreasesthatrangedfrommoderatetoverylarge.

Whererecentdemandwasstrong,contactsattributed

theirresultstothepost-pandemicreboundofclientfirmsandtotheessentialnatureofcertainITservices.Two

firmssaidthathigheremployee-relatedexpenditureshadpinchedtheirprofitmarginssomewhat.Capitaland

technologyspendingwasflator,inonecase,experi-

encedamodestdeclinethatwasattributedtotheriseofcloud-basedcomputing.Contactsexpectedtosee

steadyorslightlysofterdemandinthenearterm,but

citedavarietyofdownsideriskstoactivity,suchasa

seasonalspikeinrespiratoryillnesses,ongoinginflation,andstockmarketvolatility.Nonetheless,contactsex-

pressedahighdegreeofconfidenceintheirfirms’pro-spectsforlonger-termsuccess.

CommercialRealEstate

TheFirstDistrict’scommercialrealestatemarketwas

relativelyunchangedinrecentweeks.Theindustrial

marketsoftenedslightly,asrentgrowthslowedabitbutvacancyratesremainedverylow.Theofficesector

continuedtoexperiencehighvacancyratesandflat

rents.Conditionswerestableintheretailpropertymar-

ket,withfoodandbeverageestablishmentsexperiencingthestrongestdemand.Nosignificantacquisitionswerereportedforanypropertyclass,andnewdealsweresaidtobeonholduntillateinthefirstquarterof2023.Highinterestratescontinuedtocurtailborrowingactivity,andrefinancingoccurredonlyoutofabsolutenecessity.

Concerningtheoutlook,contactsexpectedactivitytobeflatortoslowslightlyonbalance,butexpectationsdif-feredbypropertytype.Whiletheindustrialmarketwasexpectedtocontinuetoperformrelativelywell,thepro-spectsfortheofficemarketweakenedfurther,assomecontactsfearedthatpendingleasematurationswouldresultinaddedvacancies.Theoutlookfortheretail

marketwasuncertain,asitwasseentodependheavilyontheextentofanyeconomicslowdownin2023.

ResidentialRealEstate

HomesalespostedsubstantialfurtherdeclinesinNo-

vember,andclosedsalesweredownby20to30per-

centonayear-over-yearbasis.Forsingle-familyhomes,recentresultsrepresentedasharpslowdowninsales

fromthepreviousreport,whereasforcondostherecentsalesdeclineswereslight-to-moderate.ABostoncontactattributedweakdemandforhomesasaresponseto

persistentinflationandhighermortgagerates.Thesamecontactaddedthatsomewould-bebuyershaveleftthemarketentirelyandthatthebuyerswhoremainare

searchingforhomesatamorecarefulpace,asthe

biddingwarsandwaivedinspectionsthatcharacterizedthemarketinrecentyearshavebecomequiterare.

Inventoriesremaineddownonanover-the-yearbasisinRhodeIsland,Massachusetts,andVermont,butbya

muchsmallermarginthaninthepreviousreport.Inothermarkets,inventorygrowthacceleratedsubstantiallyfromthepreviousreport.Pricesincreasedslightlyover-the-

year,ataboutthesamepaceasreportedlasttime.

Contactsexpectedhomepricestocontinuetoleveloffinthenearterm,andstressedthat,despitecoolingde-

mand,furtherinventorygrowthwasstillneededinordertoachieveamorebalancedmarket..

FormoreinformationaboutDistricteconomicconditionsvisit:

/in-the-region.aspx

B-1

FederalReserveBankofNewYork

TheBeigeBook.January2023

SummaryofEconomicActivity

EconomicactivityintheSecondDistrictdeclinedsignificantlyinthelatestreportingperiodandmostbusinesscontactsdonotexpectactivitytoincreaseinthecomingmonths.Inputpricescontinuedtoincreasebuthavedeceleratednotice-ably,andsellingpriceincreaseshavemoderatedsomewhat.Hiringhasslowed,wagegrowthhasremainedmodest,

andbusinessesreportedthattheyplantoaddstaff,onbalance,inthemonthsahead.Manufacturingactivityweakenedsubstantiallyinthefinalweeksof2022.Consumerspendingwasmixedbutsomewhatweakeroverall,whiletourismhasremainedstrong.Thehomesalesandrentalmarketsshowedfurthersignsofcooling,thoughconcernsabouthousingaffordabilityremainwidespread.Commercialrealestatemarketsstabilized,andconstructionactivityhasremained

sluggish.Conditionsinthebroadfinancesectorweregenerallysteady,butregionalbanksreportedwidespreaddeclinesinloandemand,ongoingtighteningincredit,andrisingdelinquencyrates.

LaborMarkets

Employmentcontinuedtoexpand,thoughatamore

subduedpacethaninrecentmonths.Anumberofbusi-nesscontactsreportedthatithasbecomesomewhat

easiertoattractandretainworkers.AlargeupstateNewYorkemployernotedthatturnoverhasslowednoticeablyinrecentweeksandthatattritionrateshavenowfallen

belowpre-pandemiclevels.Still,therecontinuestobe

strongdemandforskilledworkers—particularlyinIT,

finance,andsalesoccupations.ANewYorkCityemploy-mentagencyremarkedthat,despiterecentlayoffan-

nouncements,layoffsdonotseemunusuallyhighandjobpostingsremainplentiful.Hiringplansforthefirsthalfof2023remainedsolid.

Businesscontactsreportedsteadyandmodestwage

growth,thoughoneupstateemploymentagencynotedsomeslowing.Thesteepestwagegrowthoverthepastmonthwasreportedfromfinancialservicesfirms.Busi-nessesacrossallmajorindustrysectorsplantoraise

wagesinthemonthsahead—particularlyinwholesaletrade,transportation,andleisure&hospitality.

Prices

Pricepressures,bothcurrentandprojected,haveeasednoticeably.Businesscontactsreportedthattheprices

theypayhavecontinuedtoincreasebuttoamuchlesserdegreethaninrecentmonths.Pricepressureshave

abatedmostsignificantlyinthetrade,transportation,andmanufacturingsectors.Lookingahead,fewercontactsforeseefutureescalationinpricespaidthanatanypointsinceearly2021.

Sellingpriceincreaseswerereportedtobesomewhat

lesswidespreadthaninthelastreport.Notably,retailersreportedmodestlydecliningprices,andtransportation

firmsindicatedthattheirpriceswereflat.Retailersandwholesalersindicatedthattheyplannedtokeeppricesmostlysteadyinthemonthsahead,whilebusinessesinmostothersectorsanticipatemoderatepricehikes.

ConsumerSpending

Consumerspendinghasbeenlittlechangedinrecent

weeks.Nonautoretailersreportedthatbusinesswas

relativelysluggishovertheholidayseason,withsomeoftheweaknessattributedtodifficultiesinprocuringsup-pliesandstaff.AutodealersinupstateNewYorkreport-edthatsalesofnewvehiclesweresteadytomodestlyhigher,helpedbyimprovementinthesupplychain.

However,salesofusedvehicleshavesoftenedfurther.ConsumerconfidenceacrossNewYorkStatesurgedtoitshighestlevelinmorethanthreeyearsinDecember.

ManufacturingandDistribution

Manufacturerswoundup2022onableaknote,reportingthemostwidespreaddeclineinactivitysinceearlyinthe

B-2

FederalReserveBankofNewYork

pandemic.Contactsinthetransportation&warehousingsectoralsonoteddecliningactivity,whilewholesale

distributorsindicatedflatactivity.Onapositivenote,anumberofbusinessesindicatedthatsupplydisruptionshadeased.Lookingahead,manufacturersdonotexpectmuchimprovement,whiletransportation,warehousing,andwholesaletradefirmsweremoreoptimistic.

Services

Servicesectoractivitycontinuedtoweakeninthelatestreportingperiod.Providersofprofessional&business

servicesandeducation&healthservicesreportedongo-ingdeclinesinactivity,whileinformationfirmsnoteda

pickupinbusiness.Contactsintheleisure&hospitalitysectorindicatedsomelevelingoffinactivity,following

weakeninginthepriorreport.Lookingahead,infor-

mationsectorbusinessesexpressedincreasedoptimismabouttheoutlook,butcontactsinotherserviceindustriesanticipatedflattomodestlydecliningactivity.

TourismactivityinNewYorkCitystrengthenedfurtherinDecember.Hoteloccupancyratesclimbedabove80

percent,versus60percentayearearlier,andaverageroomtariffswereuproughly20percentovertheyear.Moreover,visitstomajortouristattractions,suchastheStatueofLiberty,havereboundedtopre-pandemic

levels.WhileattendanceatBroadwayshowshasbeenmixed,high-profilemusicalstargetedtowardsvisitors

havereportedlyfaredquitewell.Despiteadearthof

visitorsfromAsia—especiallyChina—theoverallflowofinternationalvisitorshasbeenfairlystrong,thoughvisi-torsarespendingless,onaverage,dueinparttothe

strongdollar.

RealEstateandConstruction

Theresidentialsalesandrentalmarketsshowedfurthersignsofcoolinginlate2022.Realestatecontactsin