特斯拉-TSLA.US-Cybertruck开启北美交付外观性能突破传统边际引领电动汽车行业变革

4Dec2023Cybertruck开启北美交付，外观性能突破传统边际引领电动汽车行业变革CybertruckInitiatesNorthAmericanDeliveries,RedefiningAestheticsandPerformancetoLeadNEVIndustryTransformation■热点速评FlashAnalysis(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)2023年11月30日，特斯拉Cybertruck在美国得克萨斯州的超级工厂正式开启北美地区交付，特斯拉CEOElonMusk亲自于现场将10辆Cybertruck交予车主。Cybertruck共有三个版本，售价分别为后驱版4.99万美元，四驱版6.89万美元，性能版（Cyberbeast）9.64万美元。创新车身设计及架构突破传统打造超高安全性，自研电池上车实现超高续航里程。Cybertruck的银色车身没有一条曲线，并且拥有光滑表面，由超高硬度冷轧30X不锈钢制造，这种不锈钢超合金同样用于SpaceX火箭的外部材质开发，拥有极高的硬度、耐用性以及防弹能力；车窗使用无腐蚀可批量制造的装甲玻璃，可抵御时速112公里/小时的棒球或四级冰雹的冲击。此外，Cybertruck采用了称为“ExoSkeleton”的骨架车身，即车辆无须内部结构（车架）的支撑，仅靠一层“外壳”就能保证车身强度和安全性。同时Cybertruck拥有17英寸离地间隙，重心较低可以防止发生事故时侧翻，大幅提升了整车的安全性。Cybertruck货箱尺寸为6*4英尺（约183*122cm），货箱可运载4*8英尺（约122*244cm）的建筑材料；可封闭上锁的载货空间为1897升。前备箱、车顶上方和隐藏式工具箱也可用于载物。空间尺寸富裕。特斯拉Cybertruck配备了特斯拉自家的4680电池，在使用里程拓展包的情况下，全轮驱动版能够实现超过755公里的续航里程。特斯拉独特的设计及生产方式为电池集成一体化到汽车底盘上（CTC）提供了可能，省去了电池包结构，既增加了车身刚性，又扩大了电芯能占据的体积，从而最大程度地提升了电池容量，同时可选装的太阳能电池板配件可以通过在户外停放一天增加约24km的续航里程。性能实用两开花，技术革新赋能多个驾驶场景，纯视觉自动驾驶方案实现跃进。Cybertruck整备重量6850磅，25000磅有效载荷，车辆拖拽能力可达4990千克，超越目前大部分量产皮卡。性能方面，后驱版可达250英里续航（402km），百公里加速6.5s；四驱版可达340英里续航（547km），百公里加速4.1s，最高时速180km/h，600马力，7435英尺磅扭矩，11000磅牵引力；性能版（Cyberbeast）续航可达320英里（515km），百公里加速2.6s，可在拖拽一辆保时捷911时加速能力超过保时捷911，最高时速209km/h，有845马力，10296英尺磅扭矩及11000磅牵引力。Cybertruck技术革新亮点包括一体化压铸车身、48V分布式电源架构、电机。智能驾驶方面引入FSDV12（特斯拉完全自动驾驶V12版本是有史以来第一个端到端AI自动驾驶系统，不通过编程识别道路、行人等概念，学习过程全部交给神经网络。四角自适应空气悬架、四轮驱动、可锁止差速器、可以根据车轮转速调整方向盘转向力度等技术使Cybertruck的使用轻松覆盖日常及越野场景。此外，驾驶舱和货箱配有120V和240V插座，可为电动工具或其他电动汽车充电。公共电网断电期间还可直接为家庭提供高达11.5千瓦的电量以维持照明系统，座舱内的65WUSB-C接口以及120V/240V插座可以为移动设备提供快速充电。这些技术革新在Cybertruck上的应用及大可能在未来成为电动汽车行业的主流。Cybertruck产能挑战待解，现象级产品引领产品阵容不断完善。特斯拉Cybertruck于2019年11月已首度亮相，最初计划2021年底投产，但随后经历了三次延期，直到此次仪式才实现了交付10辆Cybertruck，四驱版和性能版（Cyberbeast）预计24年交付，而后驱版直到25年才有望交付。公司曾于3Q23财报会上表示，Cybertruck产能爬坡可能会很困难，最快在25年某个时间点才能实现25万辆的稳态年产量。截至2023年9月Cybertruck订单已突破200万，如今下单可能需等待8年才可提车。尽管延期4年所有版本售价还较预售价上涨3万美元，预订金250美元也随时可退，实际交付量会有所下降，但我们依然认为Cybertruck具备现象级的市场关注度，待产能问题缓解后，巨大的在手订单量有望快速转化为巨额利润。另外，诸多Cybertruck首秀的黑科技都有望下放在特斯拉其他主销车型上，促进旗下车型矩阵不断完善，产品力继续领跑市场。产能爬坡不及预期，市场竞争加剧，FSD在华落地不及预期。4Dec202324Dec20233-55--基础-----4Dec20234APPENDIX1SummaryEventOnNovember30,2023,Tesla'sCybertruckofficiallybegandeliveriesinNorthAmericaattheGigafactoryinTexas,USA.TeslaCEOElonMuskpersonallyhandedover10Cybertruckstotheirowners.TheCybertruckisavailableinthreeversions,pricedatUS$49,900fortherear-wheeldrive,$68,900fortheall-wheeldrive,and$96,400fortheperformanceversion(Cyberbeast).CommentsInnovativebodydesignandstructurebreaktraditionalnormstoachievehighsafety.TheCybertruck'ssilverbodylackscurvesandfeaturesasmoothsurface,madeofultra-hardcold-rolled30Xstainlesssteel,alsousedinSpaceXrocketexteriors,offeringhighhardness,durability,andbulletresistance.Thewindowsusecorrosion-resistant,mass-produciblearmoredglass,capableofwithstandingimpactsfrombaseballsat112km/horlevel4hail.Additionally,Cybertruckemploysan"ExoSkeleton"framelessbody,relyingsolelyonanoutershellforstrengthandsafety.Ithasa17-inchgroundclearanceandalowcenterofgravitytopreventrollovers,significantlyenhancingoverallsafety.TheCybertruck'sbedmeasures6x4feet(about183x122cm),capableofcarrying4x8feet(about122x244cm)ofbuildingmaterials,withalockablecargospaceof1897liters.Thefronttrunk,roof,andhiddentoolboxofferadditionalstorage.Tesla'sCybertruckisequippedwithTesla'sown4680battery,achievingover755kmofrangewiththerangeextensionpackfortheall-wheel-driveversion.Tesla'suniquedesignandproductionapproachallowforbatteryintegrationdirectlyintothevehiclechassis(CTC),eliminatingtheneedforaseparatebatterypackstructure,increasingbodyrigidity,maximizingbatteryvolume,andthusenhancingbatterycapacity.Optionalsolarpanelscanaddabout24kmofrangeperdaywhenparkedoutdoors.Performanceandutilityexcel,withtechnologicalinnovationsenablingvariousdrivingscenarios,andapurevision-basedautonomousdrivingsolutionmakingaleap.TheCybertruck,weighing6850poundswithapayloadcapacityof25,000pounds,hasatowingcapacityof4990kg,surpassingmostproductionpickups.Performance-wise,therear-wheel-driveversionoffers250miles(402km)ofrange,0-100km/haccelerationin6.5s;theall-wheel-driveversionoffers340miles(547km)ofrange,0-100km/hin4.1s,atopspeedof180km/h,600horsepower,7435foot-poundsoftorque,and11,000poundsoftowingcapacity;theperformanceversion(Cyberbeast)offers320miles(515km)ofrange,0-100km/hin2.6s,outperformingaPorsche911intowingacceleration,atopspeedof209km/h,845horsepower,10296foot-poundsoftorque,and11,000poundsoftowingcapacity.Cybertruck'stechnologicalinnovationsincludeanintegrateddie-castbody,48Vdistributedpowerarchitecture,andmotors.ItintroducesFSDV12(TeslaFullSelf-Driving),thefirstend-to-endAIautonomousdrivingsysteminhistory,learningroadandpedestrianconceptsentirelythroughneuralnetworkswithoutprogramming.Four-corneradaptiveairsuspension,all-wheeldrive,lockabledifferentials,andsteeringforceadjustmentbasedonwheelspeedmakeCybertruckversatilefordailyandoff-roaduse.Additionally,thecabinandbedfeature120Vand240Voutletsforpoweringelectrictoolsorotherelectricvehicles.Duringpoweroutages,itcanprovideupto11.5kWtomaintainhomelighting,with65WUSB-Cportsand120V/240Voutletsforfastchargingmobiledevices.TheseinnovationsinCybertruckmaybecomemainstreamintheelectricvehicleindustry.Cybertruck'sproductionchallengesawaitresolution,withitsphenomenalproductleadingtoacontinuouslyimprovingproductlineup.Tesla'sCybertruckfirstappearedinNovember2019,initiallyplannedforproductionbytheendof2021butwasdelayedthreetimesuntilthisceremony,delivering10Cybertrucks.Theall-wheel-driveandperformanceversions(Cyberbeast)areexpectedtobedeliveredin2024,andtherear-wheel-driveversionin2025.Thecompanystatedinits3Q23earningscallthatrampingupCybertruckproductioncouldbechallenging,withasteadyannualproductionof250,000vehiclespossiblyachievablebysomepointin2025.AsofSeptember2023,Cybertruckordersexceeded2million,withcurrentorderspotentiallyrequiringan8-yearwait.Despitea$30,000priceincreasefromthepre-salepriceaftera4-yeardelay,the$250reservationfeeisrefundable,andactualdeliveriesmaydecrease.However,westillbelieveCybertruckmaintainsphenomenalmarketattention.Onceproductioncapacityissuesareresolved,themassivebacklogofordersisexpectedtorapidlyconvertintosubstantialprofits.Additionally,manyofCybertruck'sdebuttechnologiesarelikelytobeadoptedinTesla'sotherbest-sellingmodels,promotingcontinuousimprovementinitsvehiclelineupandmaintainingleadershipinproductstrength.RisksProductionramp-upfallsshortofexpectations;intensifiedmarketcompetition;FSD'simplementationinChinaisslowerthanexpected.5下下67 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