中国到西班牙：世界最长铁路的“使用说明”

义新欧铁路是全球最长的铁路线。2月初，一列来自中国的货运火车首次抵达西班牙。这条21世纪丝绸之路，听起来非常浪漫，但它能否带来丝绸之路那样巨大的经济效益？中国到西班牙：世界最长铁路的“使用说明”WhenthecargotrainfromtheChinesemanufacturinghubofYiwuarrivedinMadridonDecember9,itwaswelcomedwithacelebrationofsuperlatives.This"21st-centurySilkRoad"wasthe"Iongestraillinkintheworld,"IongerthantheTrans-SiberianrailwayandtheOrientExpresscombined.Andafterspending21dayscoveringmorethan8,000milesthroughChina,Kazakhstan,Russia,Belarus,Poland,Germany,FraneeandSpain,itdidsetadistaneerecord.Thequestionis,doesacommercialcargoservicefromChinatoSpain-especiallyonewhosemaidenvoyagetoMadridineludedacontainerfilledwithkids'spinningtops一makeeconomicsense?Whileitmayseemlikeafancifuladventure,extremelongdistancerailserviceisanimportantpieceoftheinternationalshippingarsenal.Useoftheso-calledEurasianLandBridgebetweenChinaandEuropeiswellestablishedatleastasfarasGermany,whichreceivessomefivetrainsaweek.Therecentlyarrived30-containertrainofcutlery,toys,andotherconsumergoodswillreturntoChinaafterChristmasloadedwithwine,ham,andoliveoil.Inthefirsthalfof2014,internationalcontainertrafficontheTrans-Siberianraillinerose8%,to865,600teu(20-footequivalentunits).Longdistancerailcargosplitsthedifferencebetweenairplaneandboatdeliveryintermsofpriceandspeed.AccordingtoMiklosKopp,directoroffreightattheInternationalUnionofRailways,sendinga10-ton40-footcontainerfromChengdu,China,toLodz,Poland,takes12to14daysbytrain,comparedtoseveraldaysbyplane(ifyouincludecustomsanddeliveryoneachend)andsomesixweeksorlongerbyboat.Thepricetagcomestosome$40,000byair,comparedto$10,000bytrain,andaslowas$5,000byboat,Koppsays.“IfyougofromthecenterofChinatothecenterofEurope,it's[railtravel]agooddecision,thoughnotascheapasbysea,”saysKopp.Still,carryingrailfreightacrosstheEurasianLandBridgecomeswithmanyproblems,saysJean-PaulRodrigue,aprofessorofglobalstudiesandgeographyatHofstraUniversityandleadauthorofthetextbookTheGeographyofTransportSystems.Forone,freighttrainsinEuropecarrylessthanhalfthecargoofsuchtrainsintheU.S.becauselowbridges,tunnels,andotherinfrastructureproblemsprohibittheuseofdouble-stackcontainers.Anotherproblem,Rodriguesays,isthatthetripfromGermanytoSpainaddsanotherweektothejourney,cuttingoutsomeofrail'sspeedandcostadvantages.“SpainistheworstplaceinEuropetodoatraintrip.It'sasfarasyoucangetincontinentalEuropefromAsia,”hesays.“Ithinkit'sabitforshow,todemonstratethetechnologyandcapabilitytoputontheseservices.ButIhavesomedoubtsthattheseservicesarecommerciallyfeasible.”Addedtotheseproblems,notesJoanJan©,alecturerinproduction,technologyandoperationsatBarcelona'sIESEBusinessSchool,isthattheaveragewinterhightemperatureinKazakhstanis20degreesFahrenheit.Suchcoldtemperaturesrequirespecialcontainersforsensitiveelectronicgoods,nottomentionSpain'sbigexports.“Thetraincanspendsixtoeightdaysinplaceswithverylowtemperatures,”hesays.“Andyoucan'thavefrozenwineorham.”ThethreeoperatorsoftheSpaintrain一InterRail,DBSchenkerRail,andTransfesa一arestilldecidingwhethertoaddtwicemonthlyChina-to-Spainserviceinspring2015.Iftheydo,theservicewilllikelyhavetotakeadifferentformtobeprofitable.Highertravelcostsmeanthatthiskindoftrainservicewillbebestforhigh-valuegoodslikeelectronicsandmedicines,notcheaptoys,saysLiborLochman,executivedirectoroftheCommunityofEuropeanRailwayandInfrastructureCompanies(CER)tradeassociation.TheservicecouldalsooffermorecompetitivepricesifitwereregularanddirecttoSpain(insteadofdroppingoffandpickingupgoodsalongtheway),saysJan©ofIESE.And,headds,operatorscouldfurtherlowercostsbyfindinghigh-valuegoodstosellbacktoChina,makingsurecontainersdonotreturnempty.Thatwillbedifficult,asSpainrana€13billiontradedeficitwithChinain2013.(Rightnow,manycontainersaresentbackfromEuropeempty;othersarefilledwithcars,carparts,andmanufacturingequipment.)Despitethehurdles,China-Europerailtradewillmostlikelygrowinthecomingyears.TheCER'sLochmannotesthat,inthefuture,anewtunnelopenedfromtheAsiantotheEuropeansidesofIstanbulcouldbeusedforanewEurasianLandBridge.And,hesays,whileitwillcontinuetobeimpossibletodoublestackcontainers,Europeanrailfreightauthoritiesaretryingtomakerailmorecompetitivebyupgradinginfrastructuretoallowforlonger,1,000-to1,500-metertrains,comparedtothe600-metertrainsusedtoday.Still,whiletraversingagaggleofcountriesonthe21st-CenturySilkRoadmayseemromantic(andperhapsevenprofitable),themethodcomeswithgeopoliticalproblemsthatplanesandboatsdon'thavetocontendwith,saysRodrigueofHoftra.“Youhavealotofborderissues,”hesays.“YouhavetothinkenteringRussiawiththeembargo,that'sgoingtobealotoffun.”12月9日，当一列来自中国制造业重镇义乌的货运火车抵达马德里时，它受到了最高级别的庆祝和欢迎。这条“21世纪的丝绸之路”是“全球最长的铁路”，比西伯利亚大铁路(Trans-Siberianrailway)和东方快车(OrientExpress)的线路加起来还要长。在21天的行程中，这列火车穿越中国、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、波兰、德国、法国和西班牙，总行驶路程超过8,000英里，创造了一项新纪录。问题在于，这项从中国到西班牙的商业货运服务——尤其是考虑到这趟前往马德里的处子秀包括一个装满儿童陀螺玩具的集装箱——真的能产生经济效益吗？尽管它听起来像是一种充满幻想色彩的大冒险，但超长距离的铁路运输的确是国际运输中重要的组成部分。在连接中国和欧洲的所谓欧亚大陆桥(EurasianLandBridge)上，至少远至德国的运输线路早已颇具规模。每周都有大约五列火车抵达德国。最近抵达西班牙的火车包含30节集装箱，装有餐具、玩具和其他日用消费品。在圣诞节后，这列火车将载满葡萄酒、火腿和橄榄油返程。在2014年上半年，西伯利亚大铁路的集装箱运输量提高了8%，增长至86.56万标准箱(即20英尺长的集装箱)。长距离铁路运输与空运和海运的区别在于成本和速度。据国际铁路联盟(InternationalUnionofRailways)货运部主任米克洛斯•科普介绍，把一个10顿重，40英尺长的集装箱从中国成都运到波兰罗兹，经火车需要12至14天，经飞机只要几天(加上通过两国的海关和交货所需的时间)，而走海路则需要6周甚至更长。科普表示，在价格方面，空运该箱子大约需要4万美元，铁路运输需要1万美元，而海运只需5,000美元。科普说：“如果你要从中国中部运货到欧洲中部，(采用火车)是一个不错的选择，尽管它没有走海路那么便宜。”然而，霍夫斯特拉大学(HofstraUniversity)全球学和地理学教授、教科书《交通系统地理学》(TheGeographyofTransportSystems)的主要作者让-保罗•罗德里格表示，通过欧亚大陆桥进行铁路运输也存在许多问题。比如说，由于桥和隧道建得较低，其他基础设施也有不足，欧洲铁路运输无法采用双层集装箱列车，装载的货物还不足美国同类火车的一半。罗德里格说，另一个问题是从德国到西班牙还需要一个星期，这削弱了铁路运输的速度和成本优势。罗德里格表示：“西班牙是欧洲最糟糕的铁路运输终点站。它到欧洲中部的距离和亚洲到欧洲中部的距离一样远。我认为这有点做秀的成分，是为了展现这项铁路运输服务的技术和能力。但我怀疑该服务在商业上是否可行。”此外，巴塞罗那IESE商学院（Barcelona'sIESEBusinessSchool）生产、技术和经营课程的讲师琼•简还指出，哈萨克斯坦冬季的平均最高温度是20华氏度。灵敏的电子产品需要用特制集装箱来防护这样的低温，更不用说西班牙的大量出口商品了。琼•简表示：“火车在低温地区要待上六到八天，你不能让葡萄酒和火腿被冻着。”西班牙铁路的三大运营商InterRail、DBSchenkerRail和Transfesa仍在