分布式风电市场报告

U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOfficeofENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGYDistributedWindMarketReport:2022EditionSummaryAliceOrrell,LindsaySheridan,KamilaKazimierczukPacificNorthwestNationalLaboratoryAugust20221&RENEWABLEEDistributedWindMarketReport:2022EditionPurpose,Scope,andData—SummarizespubliclyavailableU.S.distributedwindannualdatathroughtheendof2021—Analyzesdistributedwindprojectsofallsizes—Providesdataandanalysisthatareseparatefromland-basedandoffshorewind—Includesdatafromturbinemanufacturers,projectinstallers,stateagencies,AmericanCleanPowerAssociation,U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,FederalAviationAdministration,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,U.S.Treasury,U.S.WindTurbineDatabase,andothers.ReportAuthors—PrimaryAuthor:AliceOrrell;PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory(PNNL)—ContributingAuthors:LindsaySheridan,KamilaKazimierczuk;PNNLFundedby—U.S.DOEWindEnergyTechnologiesOfficeProductsandAvailability—Thissummaryiscomplementedwithanunderlyingreportanddatafile—Allproductsavailableat:/windreportU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY2KeyFindings•15statesadded11.7MWofnewdistributedwindcapacityin2021

from1,751turbineunitsrepresentinga$41millioninvestment.CumulativeU.S.distributedwindinstalledcapacitynowstandsat1,075MW.•Ofthe11.7MWinstalledin2021,8.7MWcamefromdistributedwindprojectsusinglarge-scaleturbines(greaterthan1MWinsize),1.2MWcamefromprojectsusingmid-sizeturbines(101kilowatts[kW]to1MWinsize),and1.8MWcamefromprojectsusingsmallwindturbines(upthrough100kWinsize).•RhodeIsland,Kansas,andMinnesotaledtheUnitedStatesin2021capacityadditions

asaresultofoneprojectineachstatewhichcombined,represent75%oftheannualdistributedwindcapacityinstalledin2021.•Refurbishedturbinescontinuetoaccountformostofthemid-sizemarketandsmallwindretrofitprojectscontinuetoaccountforasignificantportionofnewsmallwindcapacity.

Ofthesixprojectsusingmid-sizeturbinesin2019,2020,and2021,atleastfourarerefurbishedmodels.In2021,smallwindretrofitsrepresented42%oftotalinstalledsmallwindcapacity.•In2021,utilitycustomersaccountedforthemajorityofthetotaldistributedwindcapacity

(56%),whileagriculturalcustomersaccountedforthegreatestnumberofprojectsinstalled

(55%).•Theaveragecapacity-weightedinstalledcostforasampleofnewsmallwindprojectsin2021was$5,120/kW.Theaveragecapacity-weightedinstalledcostforasampleofsmallwindretrofitprojectsin2021wasapproximately$3,400/kW.Theaveragecapacity-weightedinstalledcostforasampleofprojectsusingturbinesgreaterthan100kWin2021wasapproximately$2,900/kW.•Theaveragecapacityfactorin2021forasampleofsmallwindprojectswas13%.Theaveragecapacityfactorin2021forasampleofdistributedwindprojectsusingturbinesgreaterthan100kWwas22%.U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY3ContentsU.S.DistributedWindDeploymentU.S.DistributedWindProjectsandSalesSmallWindCertificationPolicies,Incentives,andMarketInsightsDistributedWindCostTrendsDistributedWindPerformanceDistributedWindMarketsFutureOutlookandConclusionU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGYU.S.DistributedWindDeploymentU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY5■■IAnnualCapacityforSmallWindTurbinesAnnualCapacityforMid-SizeWindTurbinesAnnualCapacityforLarge-ScaleWindTurbinesCumulativeCapacityU.S.distributedwindcapacityCumulativedistributedwindcapacityreached1,075MWin2021fromover89,000windturbinesacrossall50states,theDistrictofColumbia,PuertoRico,theU.S.VirginIslands,andGuam.11.7MWofdistributedwindcapacitywasdeployedintheUnitedStatesin2021U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY6ThreestatesledtheUnitedStatesinnewdistributedwindcapacity:RhodeIsland,Kansas,andMinnesota•In2021,newdistributedwindprojectsweredocumentedin15states.CaliforniaColoradoIllinoisIowaKansasMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNebraskaNewYorkOhioRhodeIslandUtahVermontWisconsin1.1MW-5MWCapacityisshowninmegawatts(MW).101kW-1MWUpto100kWCumulativeCapacity(MW)[NewCapacity2021]■Over100MW■10.1MW-100MWQ5.1MW-10MW205.9U.S.cumulative(2003-2021)capacityand2021capacityadditionsfordistributedwindbystateU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY7IowaMinnesotaMassachusettsCaliforniaTexasOhioRhodeIslandNewMexicoNebraskaIllinoisAlaskaColoradoKansas■2003-2018B2019B20202021Stateswithdistributedwindcapacitygreaterthan20MW,2003-2021•IowaandMinnesotahavestrongwindresources,activeprojectdevelopers,andhavehistoricallyreceivedasignificantnumberofU.S.DepartmentofAgricultureRuralEnergyforAmericaProgramwindgrants.IowaandMinnesotaarethetopstatesforcumulativedistributedwindcapacitysowsU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY8IowaNevadaAlaskaNewYorkMinnesotaCaliforniaOhio0246810SmallWindCapacity(MW)•Minnesotahadthemostsmallwindcapacityadditionsin2021becauseofafocusbymanufacturerEocycleontheagriculturalmarketthere.•NewYorkledinannualsmallwindcapacityadditionsfrom2017through2020,butinstallationshavedeclinedtherefollowingthediscontinuationoftheNewYorkStateEnergyandResearchDevelopmentAuthoritySmallWindTurbineIncentiveProgram.■2003-201812019・20202021Stateswithsmallwindcapacitygreaterthan2MW,2003-2021Iowa,Nevada,andAlaskaarethetopthreestatesforcumulativesmallwindcapacityS2SU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY9U.S.DistributedWindProjectsandSalesU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY10Sixdevelopershaveaccountedfor40+%ofdistributedwindcapacityfromprojectsusing100+kWturbinessince2015TotalMWperYear■OtherYearProjectdevelopersusingturbinesgreaterthan100kW,2012-202111U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY■BluestemEnergySolutions■FoundationWindpower■GreenDevelopment■JuhlEnergy■OneEnergyEnterprisesLLCOptimumRenewables(eSEPUdM—oAeedEo一501JO&5ua)u』adTotalMWperYearYearEWTAmericas■Gamesa■GERenewableEnergy■Goidwind■PowerWind■VensysVergnet■Vestas■OtherWindturbinemanufacturersofturbinesgreaterthan100kWwithaU.S.salespresence,2012-2021•GEEnergyhasbeentheonlyconsistentU.S.-basedlarge-scaleturbinemanufacturerusedindistributedwindprojectsoverthepasttenyears.Distributedwindmanufacturerrepresentationwasgreaterin2021thanin2019and2020(％)_so.uooBsu8」adU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY12SmallwindsalesfrombothU.S.-basedandnon-U.S.manufacturersincreasedslightlyin2021U.S.smallwindturbinesales,2012-2021•U.S.-basedmanufacturersofnewsmallwindturbinesaccountedfor65%ofthesmallwindsalescapacityin2021.(Mscwppv言radeoU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY13SmallWindCertificationU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY14SevensmallwindturbinesarecertifiedtoAmericanWindEnergyAssociation9.1.2009orIEC61400-1,-2,-11standardsCertifiedSmallWindTurbines(asofJuly31st,2022)ApplicantTurbineModelDateofInitialCertificationCertifiedPowerRating@11m/s(kW)CertificationStandardBergeyWindPowerExcel1011/16/20118.9AWEA9.1BergeyWindPowerExcel152/5/202115.6AWEA9.1EvereadyDiversifiedProducts(Pty)Ltd.Kestrele400nb2/14/20132.5AWEA9.1EocycleTechnologies,Inc.EO20/E0253/21/201722.5/28.9AWEA9.1HI-VAWTTechnologyCorporation/ColiteTechnologiesDS30005/10/20191.4AWEA9.1PrimusWindPowerAIR30/AIRX1/25/20190.16IEC61400PrimusWindPowerAIR40/AirBreeze2/20/20180.16IEC61400•TheAmericanCleanPowerAssociation(ACP)hasdevelopedanewstandardtofacilitateeasiercertificationcompliance.TheforthcomingACP101-1standarddefinessmallwindturbinesashavingapeakpowerof150kWorlessandmicroturbinesashavingapeakpowerupto1kW.Theindustryexpectsthatnewturbinemodelswillbecertifiedtothisstandardinthefuture.U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY15Policies,Incentives,andMarketInsightsU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY1625,000,000■USDAREAPYearU.S.distributedwindincentiveawards,2013-2021•TheeightstateswereIowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota,Nebraska,NewMexico,NewYork,andVermont.Thecombinedvalueofincentivesgiventodistributedwindprojectsin2021was$5.2millionacrosseightstates(s)sEeMVJOanraA一挡12U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY17In2021,atotalof$696,964inUSDAREAPgrantswasawardedto22windprojects•Since2003,USDAhasawardedover$73millioninREAPwindgrants.Thesewindgrantshavedecreasedsignificantlysince2012,whileawardstosolarPVprojectshaveincreased.U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY18TherehavebeenjusttwoUSDAREAPwindloansinthepast10yearsin2012and2018,whilesolarloanshaveincreased500,000,000■SolarWindYearUSDAREAPloansbytechnology,2012-2021Technology■EnergyEfficiency</>U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY19U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY20Theaveragecapacity-weightedinstalledcostfornewsmallwindprojectsin2021was$5,120/kWYearAverageandproject-specificU.S.newandretrofitsmallwindinstalledprojectcosts,2012-2021•Theaveragecapacity-weightedinstalledcostforsmallwindretrofitprojectsin2021wasapproximately$3,400/kW.Retrofitprojectsusingrefurbishedturbinesrepresentthelow-endoftheretrofitinstalledcostrange.21U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY(MmsIZOZ)MX』adtsoopa=ssu_9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0002012201320142015201620172018201920202021YearAverageannualandproject-specificinstalledcostsforprojectsusingturbinesgreaterthan100kW,2012-2021Project-SpecificInstalledCostperkW♦AverageCapacity-WeightedInstalledCostperkWDarkercirclesrepresenttwoormoreprojectswiththesameprojectdata.Theaveragecapacity-weightedinstalledcostforprojectsusingturbinesgreaterthan100kWin2021was$2,900/kW(M<STZ0z)M工lsoopa>=ESU一U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY22U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY23Thesmallwindaveragecapacityfactorfromasampleofprojectsthatgeneratedenergyin2021was13%Smallwindcapacityfactors24SouthernPlainsU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGYxAverageCapacityFactoroProjectCapacityFactor(％)』23£2?言radeoHOZ3,000•West•MidwestSouthernPlains•Northeast05001,0001,5002,0002,500TurbineNominalCapacity(kW)Capacityfactorsforprojectsusingturbinesgreaterthan100kWTheaveragecapacityfactorforasampleofdistributedwindprojectsusingturbinesgreaterthan100kWin2021was22%U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY25Forasampleofsmallwindprojects,actualenergyproductionin2021waslessthaninitialestimatesprovidedtocustomersNormalized2021WindSpeed•MidwestSouthernPlains•Northeast•SoutheastActualandestimatedperformanceforselectsmallwindprojects•Historicaldataindicatesthat2021wasabelowaveragewindresourceyearformostprojects(asindicatedbythe2021normalizedwindspeed)andthatisonecontributingfactortothelowturbineperformancerecordedin2021relativetoexpectations.26U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGYU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY27NumberofProjectsDistributedwindend-usecustomertypesbynumberofprojects,2014-202128U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&

RENEWABLEENERGYAgriculturalcustomershad55%ofthenumberofallprojectsinstalledin2021,followedbyresidentialcustomersat16%(洪)saa>o』dw—0RqEnNasJJOexsuaewdCapacityofProjects(MW)20142015201620172018Year201920202021Agricultural■Residential■Commercial■Industrial■Institutional■Government■UtilityDistributedwindend-usecustomertypesbycapacityofprojects,2014-2021Utilitycustomers,whotypicallyuselarge-scaleturbines,had56%ofthetotaldistributedwindcapacityinstalledin20211,(％)sts.2»0』djoX4oede3一sojjossuaeedU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY29From2012through2021,90%ofalldistributedwindprojects,onaverage,wereinterconnectedforon-siteuseNumberofProjectsDistributedwindforon-siteuseandlocalloadsbynumberofprojects,2012-202130U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY(eSEedJ。」oqEnNwloto曾EwadCapacityofProjects(MW)Year■LocalUse■On-siteUseDistributedwindforon-siteuseandlocalloadsbycapacityofprojects,2012-2021From2012through2021,55%oftotaldistributedwindcapacityservedlocalloads,while45%wasforon-siteuse8070605040100%001(％)AQedeots.aold耳ojjo島U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY31In2021,theaveragecapacityofturbinesgreaterthan100kWindistributedwindprojectswas1.1MWAveragesizeofturbinesgreaterthan100kWindistributedwindprojectsandaveragesizeofthoseprojects,2003-2021•Theaverageturbinecapacitywas2MWin2020.Similardropsinaverageturbinesize(andaverageprojectsize)canalsobeobservedinyears2008,2010,and2015whenmid-sizeturbinesaccountedformorethan40%oftheprojectsinthoseyears.U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY32Newturbinesinthesizesegmentof11-100kWcomprisedthemajoritythesmallwindsalescapacityin2021YearU.S.smallwindsalescapacitybyturbinesize,2012-202133U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY(MMI)u.2MPP<Aes.CQoThemarketsharefornewturbines1-100kWincreased,whilerefurbished11-100kWandless-than-1-kWdecreased■RefurbishedTurbinesRated11*100kW■NewTurbinesRated11-100kWNewTurbinesRated1*10kW■NewTurbinesRated0.1-0.9kWYearU.S.smallwindsalespercentageofcapacitybyturbinesize,2012-202134U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY(％)uoMPPVAoede3jo會FutureOutlook,MarketPotential,andConclusionsU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY35FutureOutlookandMarketPotential•The

DistributedEnergyFuturesStudy

determinedthereiseconomicpotentialfor919GWofbehind-the-meterinstallationsand474GWoffront-of-the-meterinstallationsina2022baselinescenario.oEconomicpotentialisdefinedashavingapositiverateofreturnoTheprojectionsincreasesubstantiallyina2035scenariothatincludesmorepolicysupport,namelytheextensionofthefederalInvestmentTaxCreditandrelaxedsitingcond