上海出口集装箱运输市场（欧洲航线）周报：上市首日即涨停 后市存回调风险

上海出口集装箱运输市场(欧洲航线)周报WeeklyReportonShanghaiExporttoEuropeContainerShippingIndustry后重要事项作者：宏观与大类资产研究中心陈臻投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号方正中期官方微信上市首日即涨停后市存回调风险跌空欧航线有长期外于低位震荡的风险。会出现分化。落 1(一)本周期货市场回顾 1(二)本周现货市场回顾 1减弱供应链压力回升 2(一)运力总规模 2(二)航线运营情况 3(三)班轮公司运力规模 5(四)全球供应链压力回升 6(五)港口运营方面 7、需求端：中国货运市场有所复苏亚欧航线增量源于中俄 7(一)全球运量回落亚欧航线反弹 7(二)出口国/起运港：中国货运市场有所复苏 8(三)进口国/目的港：欧洲经济边际复苏但整体依然处于磨底中 10 (一)航次成本：燃料油价格下挫 12(二)资金成本：二手船价格持续下挫 12 13 (一)本周期货市场回顾EC涨情绪共同带动所致。表1-1上市首日上海出口集运期货(欧洲航线)交易情况EC04EC06EC08EC10EC12(二)本周现货市场回顾表1-2最新一期各大集装箱运价指数(中国→欧洲航线)运价周环比WCINCFI-4.5%-0.7%-6.7% SCFI(上海→欧洲)季节性趋势图 9000800070006000500040003000000100001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月交易所、方正中期期货研究院整理(点)4月月月(点)4月月月0S所、方正中期期货研究院整理二、供给端：停航力度减弱供应链压力回升(一)运力总规模亚欧航线集装箱舱位量跨太平洋航线集装箱舱位量25,000,00020,000,0025,000,00020,000,00015,000,00030,000,00010,000,0005,000,00002014-05-262015-05-262016-05-262017-05-262018-05-262019-05-262020-05-262021-05-262022-05-262023-05-26(二)航线运营情况跨大西洋航线集装箱舱位量再看班轮公司对于中国→欧美航线的运力投放力度(以该周开航的船舶作为统计口径)。洲航线的投放情况、方正中期期货研究院整理(三)班轮公司运力规模排名班轮公司运力规模(TEU)全球占比1地中海航运5,209,7662马士基航运4,146,1463达飞轮船3,515,7334运2,950,7175赫伯罗特1,881,6036.8%6长荣海运1,673,6006.1%7海洋网联1,681,8976.1%8韩新航运790,3422.9%9阳明航运705,6142.6%579,7972.1%合计2313521583.8%班轮公司新船订单规模(TEU)总艘数(艘)1地中海航运1,551,4642达飞轮船1,206,5913运910,2944长荣海运840,6505海洋网联469,7686马士基404,8007赫伯罗特288,6408306,1849韩新航运265,027阳明海运77,5005合计6243418(四)全球供应链压力回升方正中期期货研究院整理(五)港口运营方面方正中期期货研究院整理航线反弹别下降排名单位:TEU2023年6月环比总量CTS全球集装箱总0%-1.5%-1.0%1Asia-Asia420200027.8%-2.1%-2.6%2Asia-NorthAmerica180150011.9%-12.7%2.7%3Asia-Europe14912009.9%11.9%3.1%4Asia-IndianSubCont.&MiddleEast7767005.1%17.1%1.3%5Europe-Europe6597004.4%-3.1%-0.2%6Europe-Asia5279003.5%0.2%0.8%7NorthAmerica-Asia4731003.1%-4.0%-10.0%8Asia-South&CentralAmerica4433002.9%18.1%5.1%9Europe-NorthAmerica4253002.8%-13.2%1.1%Asia-SubSaharanAfrica3218002.1%13.5%-3.6%亿美元总出口欧盟美国东盟英国总出口同比欧盟同比美国同比东盟同比英国同比总出口环比欧盟环比美国环比东盟环比英国环比2023-072817.60423.80423.13417.7470.77-14.5%-20.6%-23.1%-21.4%-6.8%-1.2%-3.6%-0.9%-3.5%11.51%2023-062853.22439.55426.94433.0363.46-12.4%-12.9%-23.7%-16.9%-10.2%0.5%-1.5%0.5%4.4%-8.6%2023-052838.35446.29424.78414.9069.45-7.1%-7.0%-18.2%-15.9%3.7%-2.7%-0.3%-1.3%-10.2%8.4%2023-042916.66447.42430.23461.9664.077.3%3.9%-6.5%4.5%10.8%-4.4%-2.5%-1.5%-18.1%-3.3%2023-033050.38458.94436.78564.0066.2811.4%3.4%-7.7%35.4%7.3%45.0%40.4%60.8%48.3%50.6%2023-022103.34326.85271.59380.3144.00-2.7%-16.1%-31.8%33.7%-17.3%-26.8%-31.1%-38.8%-14.8%-35.1%2023-012872.35474.14444.11446.4567.76-11.6%-9.5%-14.2%-6.7%-12.7%-4.5%8.7%-2.1%-16.5%2.4%2022-123008.56435.99453.71534.8266.14-11.4%-17.5%-19.5%7.5%-20.2%2.7%-2.7%11.2%6.3%0.0%2022-112929.12447.88408.06502.8966.11-9.7%-10.6%-25.4%5.2%-16.5%-1.1%1.5%-13.2%2.9%-5.1%2022-102962.75441.24470.18488.5569.66-1.0%-9.0%-12.6%20.3%-14.5%-7.3%-6.0%-7.4%-6.5%-1.53%2022-093196.27469.62507.60522.6470.744.9%5.6%-11.6%29.5%-11.8%2.3%-8.5%2.0%5.8%-10.9%2022-083123.00513.47497.75494.1679.356.5%11.1%-3.8%25.1%2.7%-5.2%-3.8%-9.6%-7.1%4.5%2022-073295.45533.87550.35531.6475.9017.2%23.2%11.0%33.5%3.9%1.2%5.8%-1.7%2.1%7.4%2022-063257.61504.75559.79520.8770.6816.2%17.1%19.3%29.0%-0.4%6.7%5.1%7.7%5.6%5.6%2022-053054.10480.05519.53493.4466.9616.0%20.3%15.7%25.9%-5.9%12.4%11.4%12.9%11.6%15.8%2022-042717.70430.77460.13442.1357.803.3%7.9%9.4%7.6%-15.4%-0.8%-3.0%-2.7%6.2%-6.4%2022-032738.81443.95473.11416.4661.7813.9%21.4%22.4%10.4%-3.5%26.7%13.9%18.9%46.4%16.1%2022-022161.24389.72397.96284.4853.205.7%15.4%9.7%5.9%-10.2%-33.5%-25.6%-23.1%-40.6%-31.5%2022-013249.32524.07517.48478.7477.6323.4%31.2%16.9%18.2%22.4%-4.3%-0.8%-8.2%-3.8%-6.3%(二)出口国/起运港：中国货运市场有所复苏U中国港口周度集装箱吞吐量(万TEU)600580560540520500480460440420400方正中期期货研究院整理112013-05112014-05112015-05112016-05112017-05112018-051122019-05112020-05112021-05112022-05112023-05经济边际复苏但整体依然处于磨底中8ZEW欧元区经济现状&景气指数0-100ZEWZEW欧元区经济景气指数(点)欧洲季调零售指数50欧元区德国法国意大利西班牙9876543210(点)(点)40价格均下挫(一)航次成本：燃料油价格下挫(美元/吨)1,2001,00080060040020004020008004000(美元/桶)新加坡重油IFO380新加坡轻油MDO新加坡低硫燃料油新加坡高硫380OPCE一揽子原油价格(右轴)(二)资金成本：二手船价格持续下挫2023/8/12023/8/8周环比国际集装箱船舶价格指数8863.78777.96-0.97%PostPanamax新船($)8281000081960000-1.03%10年期船龄Panamax($)5137000050850000-1.01%Panamax新船($)4890000048460000-0.90%10年期船龄Panamax($)3102000030740000-0.90%Handy新船($)2930000028910000-1.33%10年期船龄Handy($)670000440000-1.23%19/3/1919/5/1919/7/1919/9/1919/11/1920/1/1920/3/1920/5/1920/7/1920/9/1920/11/1921/1/1921/3/1919/3