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Migration,Searchand

SkillHeterogeneity

MyrtoOikonomou

WP/23/136

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2023

JUN

*TheauthorwouldliketothankAndreaFerrero,HarrisDellasandFrancescoZanettifortheirinsightfulcommentsandguidance.ThispaperhasbenefitedgreatlyfromcommentsfromPetrSedlacekMichaelMcMahon,RomainDuval,EvgeniaVella,DanielaHauser,FilipposPetroulakis,RobertZymekandtheIMFAFRDepartment’sResearchAdvisoryGroup.IthasalsobenefitedfromthewarmhospitalityandconversationswitheconomistsattheDanishNationalBank,theFederalReserveBankofSaintLouisandtheIMFRESStructuralandClimatePoliciesworkshop.

©2023InternationalMonetaryFund

WP/23/136

IMFWorkingPaper

AfricanDepartment

Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity

PreparedbyMyrtoOikonomou*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyMercedesVeraMartin

June2023

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Cross-bordermigrationcanactasanimportantadjustmentmechanismtocountry-specificshocks.Yet,dependingonwhomoves,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesforbusinesscyclestability.Thispaperarguesthattheskillcompositionofmigrationplaysacriticalrole.Whenmigrationflowsbecomemoreconcentratedinskilledlaboranimportanttrade-offarises.Ontheonehand,migrationreleasesunemploymentpressuresfortheorigincountries.Ontheotherhand,itgeneratesnegativecompositionaleffects(theso-called“braindrain”effects)andskillimbalances,whichreducesupplycapacityinorigincountries.Thispaperanalysesquantitativelytheimpactofcyclicalmigrationinanopen-economyDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)modelwithendogenousmigrationflows,tradelinkages,searchandmatchingfrictions,andskillheterogeneity.IapplythisframeworktothecaseoftheGreekemigrationwavefollowingtheEuropeanDebtCrisis.WhatIfindisthatemigrationflowsimpliedstrongnegativeeffectsforcapitalformation,leadingtomorethana15percentagepointdropininvestment.RatherthanstabilizingtheGreekbusinesscycle,labormobilityledtoadeeperandmoreprotractedrecession.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:MyrtoOikonomou,2023,Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity,IMFWorkingPaperWP/23/136

JELClassificationNumbers:E22,E32,F41,J24

Keywords:Migration;MatchingFrictions;SkillHeterogeneity

Author’sE-MailAddress:moikonomou@

Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity

MyrtoOikonomou*

June1,2023

Abstract

Cross-bordermigrationcanactasanimportantadjustmentmechanismtocountry-specificshocks.Yet,dependingonwhomoves,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesforbusinesscyclestability.Thispaperarguesthattheskillcompositionofmigrationplaysacriticalrole.Whenmigrationflowsbecomemoreconcentratedinskilledlaboranimportanttrade-offarises.Ontheonehand,migrationreleasesunemploymentpres-suresfortheorigincountries.Ontheotherhand,itgeneratesnegativecompositionaleffects(theso-called“braindrain”effects)andskillimbalances,whichreducesupplycapacityinorigincountries.Thispaperanalysesquantitativelytheimpactofcycli-calmigrationinanopen-economyDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)modelwithendogenousmigrationflows,tradelinkages,searchandmatchingfrictions,andskillheterogeneity.IapplythisframeworktothecaseoftheGreekemigrationwavefollowingtheEuropeanDebtCrisis.WhatIfindisthatemigrationflowsimpliedstrongnegativeeffectsforcapitalformation,leadingtomorethana15percentagepointdropininvestment.RatherthanstabilizingtheGreekbusinesscycle,labormobilityledtoadeeperandmoreprotractedrecession.

JELCodes:E22,E32,F41,J24

Keywords:Migration,MatchingFrictions,SkillHeterogeneity

*Email:moikonomou@.TheauthorwouldliketothankAndreaFerrero,HarrisDellasandFrancescoZanettifortheirinsightfulcommentsandguidance.ThispaperhasbenefitedgreatlyfromcommentsfromPetrSedlacekMichaelMcMahon,RomainDuval,EvgeniaVella,DanielaHauser,Filip-posPetroulakis,RobertZymekandtheIMFAFRDepartment’sResearchAdvisoryGroup.IthasalsobenefitedfromthewarmhospitalityandconversationswitheconomistsattheDanishNationalBank,theFederalReserveBankofSaintLouisandtheIMFRESStructuralandClimatePoliciesworkshop.

1

Contents

1Introduction

3

2RelatedLiterature

6

3TheModel

8

3.1ModelOverview

8

3.2laborMarkets

9

3.3Households

11

3.4Production

14

3.4.1FinalGoodFirms

14

3.4.2IntermediateGoodFirm

15

3.5MarketClearing

17

4Calibration

19

5QuantitativeAnalysis

23

5.1Theamplifyingroleofmigration

23

5.2Wholeavesmatters

26

6Conclusion

29

References

30

AAppendix

30

A.1AdditionalFigures

30

A.2ModelEquations

31

A.3Results

34

ListofFigures

1Emigrationflows,evolutionofsizeandskillcomposition

4

2ModelOverview

9

3ImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock

24

4ImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock

25

5ImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock

26

6DataandImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock

27

3

1Introduction

The2010SovereignDebtCrisisexposedtheEuroAreatoasevereasymmetricshock,leadingtodivergentmacroeconomicbehaviourbetweentheEuropeancoreandperipherycountrymembers.Againstthebackdropofmountingborrowingcosts,aseveredeteriora-tionofthelabormarketconditionsandasteepdropineconomicactivity,thecapacityofEuropeanperipherycountriestoemploycountercyclicalmacroeconomictoolswaslimited.Theabsenceoftheoptiontodevaluatenationalcurrenciesremovedanimportantadjust-mentmechanism.Atthesametime,theausteritymeasuresimposedinseveralSouthernEuropeancountriesmeantthatnationalfiscalpolicyhadlimitedspaceformanoeuvring.Againstlimitedalternativeadjustmentmechanisms,cross-borderemigrationflowsfromtheEuropeanperipherytocorecountriessurged(Figure1,a).

1

However,contrarytopreviousmigrationwaves,thisonewascharacterisedbyasignificantshiftintheskill-contentoflaborflows(Figure1,b).

Canmigrationindeedstabilisethebusinesscycleoforigincountries?Howdoestheskillcompositionofmigrationflowsimpacttheshock–absorbingcapacityofmigration?ThispapersetsouttoaddressthesequestionsthroughthelensofasmallopeneconomyDynamicStochasticGeneral-Equilibrium(DSGE)model.Themainfindingisthatthenatureofmigrationflowsintermsofskillsisimportantforthestabilisingroleofmigration.Contrarytoconventionalwisdom,migrationcanhaveadestabilisingimpactonthebusinesscycleduetoadverseeffectsontheincentivesforcapitalaccumulationandonsupplycapacity.

Labormobilityhasbeenidentifiedasakeyadjustmentmechanismtoasymmetricshocksinthecontextofcurrencyunions,anditisoneofthepreconditionsforanoptimalcurrencyareaaccordingtotheseminalworkof

Mundell

(

1961

).Whentherelativefactorpricesandthenominalexchangeratecannotadjustinresponsetoidiosyncraticshocks,mobilityofproductionfactorsoffersanalternative.Cross-borderlabormobilityinpartic-ularcanstabiliselabormarketconditionsinthecountryhitbytheidiosyncraticshock.Emigrationendogenouslyreducesthepoolofunemployedtherebymitigatingtheincreaseinunemploymentratesandthenegativewagepressureindomesticlabormarkets.Addi-tionally,cross-bordermigrationallowsconsumptionsmoothingthroughremittances,whichcanactasarisk-sharingdevice.

2

Inmanyways,theincreaseinemigrationfromperiphery

1ForthecaseofGreece,thecountrythatexperiencedthedeepestandmostprotractedrecession,emigra-tionflowsresultedinmorethan7percentofactivepopulationexitingthecountrybetween2010and2015(

Bandeiraetal.

,

2022

).ForSpain,emigrationflowswereunprecedentedaswell,amountingtooutflowscloseto1percentoftotalpopulationover2010–14(

Izquierdoetal.

,

2016

).

2However,weshouldnotethatremittancesareofminorquantitativesignificanceforSouthernEuropean

4

countriesduringtheSovereignDebtcrisiscanbecharacterisedasaMundellianautomaticstabiliser.Yet,thisanalysisofcyclicalmigrationoverlooksanimportantfactor:skillhet-erogeneity.GrossmigrationflowsfromtheEuroAreaperipherytocorecountriesmaskimportantheterogeneityintermsoftheeducationalprofileofemigrants,whichshiftedintherecentmigrationwave.

3

Figure1:Emigrationflows,evolutionofsizeandskillcomposition

Notes:Panel(a)plotsgrossemigrationflowsfromEuropeanperipherycountriesasashareoftotalworkingagepopulation(years15-64).Panel(b)plotsimmigrationflowsfromEuropeanperiphery(Ireland,Greece,Spain,ItalyandPortugal)toGermany.Skillclassificationisviaeducationalattainment(ISCEDlevel5andabove).Thesampleiscontrolledforworkingageatyearofentry(years25-64toaccountforeducation-relatedmigration).

Source:Eurostat,GermanMicrocensusandauthor’scalculations.

Withheterogeneouslaborflows,cross-countrymigrationchangesnotonlythesizeoftheworkforceintheorigincountrybutalsoitsskillcomposition.Inthispaper,Iarguethattheresultingskillimbalancescanhaveanegativeimpactonfirms’investmentdecisionsleadingtolowereconomicactivityandreversingthecushioningeffectofmigration.Toquantifytheeffectsofcyclicalmigration,IbuildaDSGEmodelwhichfeaturestwotypesofhousehold(highandlowskilled),andexplicitlyaccountsforthecompositional(“braindrain”)effectsofmigration.Themodelhasthreekeyfrictions.Firstly,searchandmatching

countries.BasedonWorldBankdata,theaverageshareofremittancesoverGDPfor2010-15was0.82percentfortheEuropeanSouth.Forcomparison,theworldaverageoverthesameperiodwas4.7percent,asthisinsurancemechanismplaysamuchmoreprominentrolefordevelopingandfrontiereconomies.

3ForthecaseofGreece,

LabrianidisandPratsinakis

(

2016

)reportthatapproximately65percentoftotalmigrationoutflowspost2010werehighlyeducatedgraduates.Thesefindingsareconfirmedbyownresearch.BasedonLFSandpopulationregistrydatafromtheGermanmicrocensusandtheDanishstatisticaloffice,IfindashiftintheskillcontentofbothimmigrantflowsandstocksfromtheEuropeanperipherytoGermanyandDenmarkrespectively.Whiletherisingeducationalattainmentinorigincountriescanpartiallyoffsetthenegativecompositionaleffectsofemigration,thegrowthofhigh-skilledemigrationoutpaceddramaticallytheincreaseintertiaryeducateddomesticworkforce(seeAppendix).

5

frictionswhichgenerateequilibriumunemploymentandareasymmetricamongthetwotypesofworkers.Secondly,amigrationchoicewhichendogenouslychangesoverthebusinesscycledependingonrelativelabormarketconditionsinoriginanddestinationcountriesandmobilitycostswhichdifferacrossthetwohouseholds.Thirdly,capital-skillcomplementaritiesintheproductionfunction,whichintroducealinkbetweencapitaldemandandtheskillcontentofthelaborforce.

IapplythisframeworktothecaseofGreece,focusingontheemigrationwaveduringtheSovereignDebtcrisis.Ifindthat,forrealisticdegreesofcapitalskillcomplementarityintheproductiontechnology,skill-specificlaborshortagesduetomigrationoutflowshadasignificantnegativeeffectoncapitalaccumulationandproduction.Comparingthebaselinescenariotoacounterfactualscenarioofnomigration,theoutputtroughislowerbymorethan7percentagepoints,theinvestmenttroughbymorethan15percentagepoints,andconsumption,despiteaninitiallysmallerdrop(duetotherisk-sharingeffectsofmigration),exhibitsatroughwhichisalmost5percentagepointslower.

Theinteractionbetweenlabormarketexternalities,duetosearchfrictions,andcapital-skillcomplementarities,iscrucialforthisresult.Capital-skillcomplementarityre-ducestheincentiveoffirmstoinvestincapitalwhenemigrationflowsareskewedtowardsthehighlyskilled.Ifcapitalismoreproductivewhencoupledwithskilledlabor,thenalowerstockofskilledworkerswillreducethereturnsoninvestment.Thedropincapitaldemandismagnifiedduetosearchfrictionsandtheheterogeneousmobilitycostsamongthetwoskilltypes.Skilledhouseholdsfacelowermobilitycostsresultinginrelativelymoreskilledunem-ployeddirectingtheirsearchabroad.Asaresult,markettightnessfortheskilledincreasesandtheeffectivecostsofskilledvacanciesgoup.Firms’incentivetopostskilledvacanciesaremutedfurtheramplifyingthereductionincapitaldemand.Thecombinedeffectoflowertotallaborsupplyandlowerrelativeshareofskilledlaborsupplyduetomigrationgeneratesasharpandpersistentdropinoutputandexacerbatesratherthandampenstherecessionaryshock.

Thispaperproceedsasfollows.Section2brieflydiscussestherelatedliterature.Section3presentsthemodelandSection4presentsthecalibrationstrategy.Section5continueswiththequantitativeanalysisofthemodelandsection6concludes.

6

2RelatedLiterature

Thispaperrelatestotwostrandsofliterature.Firstly,itcontributestotheliteratureoncyclicalmigration.Followingtheincreaseofintra-EuroAreamigrationflows,therehasbeengrowingacademicinterestinstudyinghowmigrationmattersforthebusinesscycledynamicsofEuroAreacountries,aswellasformonetaryandfiscalpolicy.Thepaperthatistheclosesttomystudyis

Bandeiraetal.

(

2022

).Similarlytothepresentpaper,theauthorslookatGreekoutflowsinasmallopeneconomymodelthatcombinessearchandmatchingfrictionsandendogenouslabormobility,butwithadifferentfocus.Theauthorsexaminethelinkbetweenfiscalausterityandmigrationanduncoveranovelbi-directionalrelationship.Fiscalconsolidations,especiallywhenconductedthroughlabortaxhikesintensifyemigration.Inturn,emigrationreducesthetaxbaseattheorigincountryandleadstohigherandmorepersistentconsolidationsinordertomeetgivenfiscaltargets.Eventhoughtheinteractionbetweenmigrationandfiscalpolicyishighlyimportant,ourstudyabstractsfromthisdimension.Itintroducesheterogeneityinmigrationflowsandfocusesonthecompositionaleffectsofmigrationdueto“brain-drain”.

Thispaperisalsorelatedto

Houseetal.

(

2018

).TheauthorsprovideempiricalevidencethatEuropeannetmigration,inlinewiththepredictionsofMundell’sframe-work,respondedstronglytothegrowingcross-countryunemploymentdifferentialsduringtheSovereignDebtcrisis.Theauthorsestimateamulti-countryDSGEmodelthatfeaturesfrictionallabormarketsandinternalmigration.Theyfindthatlabormobilityiseffectiveinreducingcross-countryunemploymentandpercapitaGDPdifferentialsandcansubstituteindependentmonetarypolicyindeliveringthenecessaryadjustment.

Inanotherrelatedpaper,

HauserandSeneca

(

2022

)studytheimplicationsoflabormobilityforthemonetaryauthoritiesofacurrencyunion.Theauthorsbuildatwo-regionDSGEmodelwithstickypricesandmarketinefficiencies.Theyfindthatmigrationbyen-dogenouslystabilisingregionallabormarketconditionscaneasetheunemployment–inflationtradeoffofthemonetarypolicymaker.Theyalsostudytheimplicationsofinternalmigra-tionforoptimalmonetarypolicyandarguethatinthepresenceoflabormobility,strictinflationtargetingissuboptimalwhereasahigherweightonlabormarketdevelopmentsinthepolicyruleiswelfare-improving.

Cyclicalmigrationanditsimpactondestinationcountrieshasalsogainedincreasingacademicinterest.

Lozej

(

2019

)studytheeffectsofapositivemigrationshockinaDSGEmodelwithfrictionallabormarketsthatiscalibratedtotheIrisheconomy.Similarlyto

7

thisstudy,hefindsthatmigrationamplifiesbusinesscyclefluctuationstocountry-specificshocks.

SmithandThoenissen

(

2019

)addressasimilarquestionfocusingontheNewZealandeconomy.TheauthorsestimateanopeneconomyDSGEmodelwithphysicalcapital,humancapitalandhousing.Akeyfindingoftheirpaperisthatthedifferencesinhumancapitallevelsbetweenmigrantsandlocalsarecriticalforthebusinesscycleimpactofmigration.Thisresultisconsistentwiththefindingsofthispaper.However,differentlyto

Smithand

Thoenissen

(

2019

),thispaperfocusesonanorigincountryandexplicitlyaccountsfortheinterplaybetweensearchfrictionsandthecompositionaleffectsofmigration.

Therehavealsobeenseveralempiricalstudiesthatassesstheimpactofmigrationshocks.

FurlanettoandRobstad

(

2019

)useNorwegiandatainastructuralVectorAutore-gressive(VAR)model,andfindevidencethatmigrationshocksareanimportantdriverofunemploymentdynamics,leadingtolowerunemploymentratesforboththenativeandthetotalpopulation.Inasimilarvein,

Maffei-FaccioliandVella

(

2021

)userecentdataonnetmigrationfromGermany,andfindthatmigrationshockshadanexpansionaryeffectoninvestment,outputpercapita,netexportsandtaxrevenues.Theauthorsalsoreportdif-ferentialimpactofmigrationshocksonnativeandimmigrantunemployment.Theyreportthatnetmigrationshockshadapositiveeffectonjobcreation,drivingdownunemploymentfornativesbutincreasingcompetitionforimmigrantworkersandsubsequentlycausingtheirunemploymentratetoincrease.

Thesecondstrandofliteraturethatouranalysisrelatestoisresearchoncapital-skillcomplementarities.Griliches(1969)statedthehypothesisthatcapitalislesssubstitutableforskilledlaborthanforunskilledlabor,andfollowinghisseminalworkseveralstudieshavefoundsupportingempiricalevidenceinfavourofthishypothesis.

Kruselletal.

(

2000

)usedU.S.datatoestimateamoregeneralproductionfunctionthatallowedforcapital-skillcomplementarities,andfoundthatcapitalequipmentismorecomplementarywithskilledlaborthanunskilledlabor.TheyalsoshowedthatthishypothesisiscriticalinordertoexplainthepatternofskillpremiaintheUSeconomy.Inrelatedwork,

Maliaretal.

(

2022

)testedthecapital-skillcomplementarityhypothesisextendingthedatasetin

Kruselletal.

(

2000

)toincludemorerecentdata(over1993–17)andconfirmedtheoriginalfindings.

Severalstudieshavetestedthecapital-skillcomplementarityhypothesisforEuropeancountriesaswell.

Lindquist

(

2005

)usesSwedishdataandfindsthatsimilarlyto

Krusell

etal.

(

2000

),skilledlaborandcapitalequipmentarecomplementaryfactorinputs,whereasunskilledlaborandcapitalequipmentaresubstitutesforoneanother.

Batista

(

2007

)teststhishypothesisforthecaseofthePortugueseeconomyandalsofindsevidenceinfavourof

8

capital-skillcomplementarityintheaggregateproductiontechnology.Usingacross-sectionalpanel(thatincludesGreeceandseveralotherEuroAreacountries)

Duffyetal.

(

2004

)alsofindsomesupportinfavourofthecapital-skillcomplementarityhypothesis,althoughtheirevidenceisweakerthancountry-specificstudiesandtherequiredthresholdforskilledlaborislowercomparedto

Kruselletal.

(

2000

).

Inastudythatrelatestothispaper,

Doladoetal.

(

2021

)embedthecapital-skillcomplementarityframeworkinaclosedeconomyNewKeynesianmodelwithsearchandmatchingfrictions,inordertostudythedistributionaleffectsofmonetarypolicy.Thispaperfollowsasimilarmodellingapproachbutinanopeneconomymodelthatfeatureschangesintheskillcompositionofthedomesticworkforceduetoheterogeneousmigrationflows.

3TheModel

3.1ModelOverview

Ibuildasmallopeneconomymodelwhichfeaturestwotypesofhousehold(highandlowskilled),searchandmatchingfrictionsandendogenousmigration.Acombinationoflocationpreferencesandapecuniarycosttomigratemicro-foundsmigrationflows.Theproductiontechnologyischaracterizedbycapital-skillcomplementarity,asin

Kruselletal.

(

2000

).Themodelalsofeaturesaremittancechannel,tradelinks,investmentadjustmentcostsandrealrigiditiesinordertocaptureempiricallyrelevantfeaturesofthebusinesscycledynamics.Thesemodellingchoicesallowmetostudytheaggregateanddistributionalimpactofemigrationinaunifiedway.Figure2illustratesthekeyfeaturesofthemodel.

9

Figure2:ModelOverview

3.2laborMarkets

Thesmallopeneconomy(henceforthSOE)ispopulatedbytwohouseholdtypes.Typeh,whichsupplieshigh–skilledlabor,andtypel,whichsupplieslow–skilledlabor.IassumethatthemassofeachhouseholdtypestaysconstantandIdenotewithMitherespectivemeasureofhouseholdtypei,fori∈h,l.

4

Ialsoassumethattheskilltypeofeachhouseholdmemberisfixed(thereisnotransitioningacrossthedifferenthouseholds)andthatmarketsaresegmented.Thetotalpopulationmassisnormalisedtoone,i.e.,对i∈{h,l}Mi=1.Atanypointintime,therearethreedifferentlabormarketstatusthatahouseholdmembercanoccupy:employmentathomeNt,employmentabroadNt,andunemploymentUi,t.

Mi,t=Nt+Nt+Ui,t,i∈{h,l}.(1)

Unemployedworkerscanchoosewheretosearch.Ashareµi,tofthestockofunemployed,Ui,t,choosetosearchabroad,whiletheremainingsearchinthedomesticmarket.Akeyassumptionisthatunemployedmembers“searchfromhome”followingempiricalevidenceinsupportofremotesearch(

Re