财务分析和证券定价(英文版)

PARTIITheAnalysisofFinancialStatements1TheAnalysisofFinancialStatements1KnowingtheBusinessTheProductsTheKnowledgeBaseTheCompetitionTheRegulatoryconstraintsStrategy2AnalyzingInformationInFinancialStatementsOutsideofFinancialStatements3ForecastingPayoffsSpecifyingPayoffsForecastingPayoffs4

ConvertForecaststoaValuation5TradingontheValuationOutsideInvestor:CompareValuewithPriceto

BUY,SELLorHOLDInsideInvestor:CompareValuewithCostto

ACCEPTorREJECTStrategyChapter7HowbusinessactivitiesarerepresentedinfinancialstatementsChapter8Howthestatementofshareholders’equityisanalyzedChapter9AnalyzingthebalancesheetandincomestatementtorevealprofitabilityChapter10AnalyzingthecashflowstatementtoidentifycashgenerationChapter11AnalyzingprofitabilitytodiscoverwhatdrivesitChapter12Analyzingresidualearningsgrowthtodiscoverwhatdrivesit2Chapter7BusinessActivitiesandFinancialStatements3LinksChapter1introducedthefirm’soperating,investingandfinancingactivities.Chapter1Aintroducedthefinancialstatements.Chapter5outlinedavaluationmodelbasedonthosefinancialstatements.LinktoPreviousChaptersThischaptershowshowthethreebusinessactivitiesaredepictedinthefinancialstatements.ItalsoshowshowthestatementsareredesignedtohighlighttheseactivitiesandtopreparethestatementsforapplyingthevaluationmodelinChapter5.ThisChapterChapters7,8and9reformulatestatementsaccordingtothedesigndevelopedinthischapter.LinktoNextThreeChaptersLinktoWebPageHowarethecashflowsofabusinessidentifiedinthecashflowstatement?Howareoperatingandfinancingassetsandliabilitiesidentifiedinthebalancesheet?Howareoperatingandfinancingincomeidentifiedintheincomestatement?Whatmeasurescapturetheoperatingandfinancingprofitability?4WhatyouwilllearninthischapterHowbusinessesareorganizedtogeneratevalueforshareholdersThedifferencebetweenoperatingandfinancingaspectsofabusinessHowbusinessactivitiesarereportedinfinancialstatementsHowfinancialstatementsareorganizedtohighlightoperatingandfinancingactivitiesHowbusinessactivitiesarticulateandhowfinancialstatementsarticulateThefourcashflowsofabusinessandhowtheyrelatetoeachotherWhyfreecashflowdoesnotaffectvalueadded5WhatyouwilllearninthischapterAsetofaccountingrelationsthatsummarizehowbusinessactivitiesdrivefinancialstatements6Fisnetcashflowtodebtholders(orissuers)disnetdividendtoshareholdersCashFlowsBetweentheFirmandClaimantsintheCapitalMarkets7IisnetcashinvestedinoperatingassetsCisnetcash(flow)fromoperationsC-Iis“freecashflow〞IfNFAarenegative,theyareNetFinancialObligations(NFO)BusinessActivities:

AlltheCashFlows8TheCashConservationEquationAfundamentalaccountingidentity:C=NetcashfromoperationsI=Netcashoutflowforinvesting(purchases, divestments)C-I=Freecashflowd=Netdividends(includingcommondividends, stockissues...)F=Netcashoutflowfordebtfinancing (principal+interest)Thetreasurer’srule:If:lendorbuydownowndebtIf:borroworreducelending9FinancialActivities:

Stocks&Flows

Thecashflowsflowinto/outofthefinancialassets:theirchangemustbeexplainedbythefourflowscomponentsoftheequation.ForFinancialAssets(FA)

Forfinancialobligations(FO)(itisinterestpaid)Forgiveninterestpaymentsandnetdividends,cashflowfromoperations(C)reducesborrowingandcashinvestment(I)increasesit10StatementofCashFlows11BalanceSheet12BalanceSheetRestatedNOA = OA-OLNFA = FA-FOCSE =NOA+NFAUsuallyNFAisnegative:NFOCSE=NOA-NFO13BusinessActivities:

AlltheStocks&FlowsORisoperatingrevenueOEisoperatingexpenseNFIisnetfinancialincome

DindicateschangeNFAcanbenegative(NFO)HoldersorProductandInputMarketsOROECustomersSuppliersOR-OE=OIOI-DNOA=C-IC-I-DNFA+NFI=dOperatingActivitiesFinancingActivitiesCINetOperatingAssets(NOA)TheFirmCapitalMarketsFdNetFinancialAssetsDebtIssuersShareHolders(NFA)14IncomeStatementThedifferencebetweenoperatingrevenueandoperatingexpenseiscalledoperatingincome:Netfinancingexpensecanbenegative(netfinancialincome)15BusinessActivitiesandtheFinancialStatementsNIt=OItNFEtCASHFLOWSTATEMENTNetOperatingAssetsNetFinancialObligationsNOAt=NOAt-1+OIt-(Ct-It)NFOt=NFOt-1-(Ct-It)+NFEt+dtCSEt=CSEt-1+OIt-NFEt-dtCt-It=dt+FtBALANCESHEETINCOMESTATEMENT-16Stocks&Flows:

OperatingActivitiesThechangeinNFOisgivenbyThechangeinNOAisgivenbyOperatingincomeintheincomestatementflowstonetoperatingassetsinthebalancesheet.FreecashflowreducesNOAandreducesNFO(increasesNFA).Freecashflowcanbeseenasadividendpaidfromoperatingtofinancialactivities17TyingitTogether:

WhatGeneratesValue?FromthebalancesheetequationGiventhewaythatNOAandNFOarecalculated,whichisthestocksandflowsequation.Forthistobetrue,however,accountingmustbeCleanSurplus.Freecashflowdropsoutinthiscalculation:Freecashflow(C-I)doesnotaddvaluetoshareholders.Whatgeneratesvalueistheprofitfromoperatingandfinancingactivities.18ValueAddedandAccrualAccounting

OIandNFEareaccountingmeasuresandsoaredeterminedbyaccountingprinciples NI=OI-NFE OI=(C-I)+I+newoperatingaccruals =C+newoperatingaccruals NFE=i+newfinancingaccruals NI=(C–I)+I+I+allnewaccruals19AccrualsandtheBalanc