中国养老金改革

“PensionReforminChina”

BYSTUARTH.LECKIE,O.B.E.,J.P.,F.F.A.,F.I.A.CHAIRMAN,GREATERCHINAHEWITTASSOCIATESTEL:(852)21479278FAX:(852)2147282221January2023TheActuarialProfession-AgeingPopulationContentsMapofChinaPRCPopulationOldSystem(‘IronRiceBowl’)WorldBankPensionPrinciplesfortheFutureNewSystem(‘SafetyNet’)FinancingPensionAssetsDevelopCapitalMarketsImplementationIssuesSupplementaryPensionPlansOpportunitiesforFundManagersNationalSocialSecurityFundLiaoningExperimentComparisonofHongKongandPRCPossibleDevelopmentsinChinaMajorFactorsforanIdealRetirementSystemMapofChinaPRCPopulationTotal:RuralPopulation:+UrbanPopulationConsider:OneChildPolicyGreatlyimprovedlifeexpectancyDependencyRatiodeterioratingrapidlyExceeds1.2billion900million+400millionAges:0-14 100million15-64 275million65+ 25millionOldSystem(‘IronRiceBowl’)WorkersemployedforlifebyStateOwnedEnterprises(SOE)LowWagesbutTotalSecurityPensionat60(Males)or55(Females)=80%offinalsalaryPensionspaidbySOEsNoPre-fundingorReserves(i.e.pay-as-you-go),butwhatifSOEsunabletopaypensions?ChinaisveryconcernedaboutsocialunrestresultingfromunpaidpensionsandtheunemployedWorldBankInearly1990s,WorldBankstudieshowbesttosolvetheageingissuesinChinaWorldBanksuggestedathreepillarapproachGovernmentrunbasicpensionPrivatelyrunindividualaccountsVoluntaryemployer/individualsavings1993and1996announcementsonsocialsecurityreformUnifysocialsecuritypensionCreateindividualaccountswithinbasicsocialsecurityEnhancewithsupplementarypensionplans

PensionPrinciplesforFutureReducepensionexpectationsCostburdentobesharedbyemployerandemployeeMovetowardspre-fundingReasons?PopulationprojectionsSOErestructuringDevelopdomesticcapitalmarketsNewSystem(‘SafetyNet’)NewUnifiedPensionSystemReform(July1997)ExpandcoveragetoallurbanemployeesGraduallyraiseretirementage(to65yearsformen&women)BenefitsPillarI=BasicPensionof20%ofaverageprovincialwagesPillarII=Individualaccountbasedon11%contributionsPillarIII=VoluntarySupplementaryBenefitsFinancingEmployeeEmployer=4%salarycontributionincreasingby1%every2yearsupto8%=Approx20%ofsalarycontribution(Subjecttosalarymaximumandlocalvariation)PensionAssetsPillarIandIIpensionassetsapproximatelyRMB125bn,(US$15bn)ingovernmentbondsanddeposits,managedbySocialSecurityBureaus;howevernotenoughforfutureobligationsPillarIIIpensionassetsmanagedbyinsurancecompanies;fullyfundedschemesThegovernmentisconsideringseveralinitiativestomeetthepensionsshortfallSpecialtaxesLotteryIssueofrecognitionbondsSaleofStateOwnedassetsLaunchofChineseTracker

FundDevelop

CapitalMarketsSOEstoberestructured:1,000–2,000Merge,close,downsize

orcorporatizeListonstockMarketthroughAshares?Howmuchcapitalisrequiredinthenext5years?10years?Howtoapplypensionassetstocapitalmarketsandmaximizereturns(deposits+bonds+equities+mutualfunds+realestate+infrastructure)WorldBankestimatespensionassetsofUS$1.8trillionby2030ImplementationIssuesComplianceAdministrationPreservationPortabilityAffordabilityEducationTaxationSupplementaryPensionPlansEmployersponsoredretirementschemes:GrouppensionsthroughdomesticlifecompaniesSPPstobeofferedbyprovinceslicensedbyMinistryofLabourandSocialSecurity“Enterpriseannuity”proposalsbyMLSSTaxpositiononpensionsnotclearButtaxconcessionslikelytoencourageSPPsBy2023internationalinsurerscanwritegroupbusinessOpportunitiesforFund

ManagersPillarI;NoPillarII;Shortterm–No;MediumTerm–OutsourcingbySocialSecurityBureaus;Long-term–401(k)plans?PillarIII;ViaInsuranceCompanies;Latersegregatedfunds?NationalSocialSecurityFund;PossibleNationalSocialSecurityFundIntheeventthatsomeprovinceshaveinsufficientfundsforPillarsI&II,theStateCouncilhasestablishedan“emergencyfund”Income:10%ofIPO’sNationalCouncilforSocialSecurityFundtoactasTrusteesInvestmentManagement:willappointexternalmanagersOutgo:tobedecidedLiaoning

ExperimentLiaoning–industrialprovinceinnortheastVeryseriousfundingproblemsDocument42(July2023)Basicpension–30%oflocalaverageearningsIndividualaccountEmployees’contributionsonly(8%)MustbeproperlyfundedMajorproblemofbackfundingtobesolvedComparisonofHongKongandChina2aspectstoeveryretirementsystemDesignFundingHowdoHKandPRCmeasureup?HongKongPRCDesignFundingXXPossibleDevelopmentsinChinaOpen-endedFundsChineseTrackerFundJVInvestmentCompaniesMergingofAandBSharesMergingofStockMarketsFreeMarketforForeignInsuranceLiberalisationofPensionandInsuranceFundsInvestmentDevelopmentofUnit-linkedInsuranceand401(k)PensionsPrivatisationofSecondPillarPensions(IndividualAccounts)ConvertibilityofRenminbiInternationalInvestmentbyIn