持续发展的轨道交通业

持续发展的轨道交通业—设备监理服务的机遇与挑战RailTransitIndustryGrowinginaSustainableWay-OpportunitiesandChallengesofPlantengineeringconsultingService中国铁道科学研究院孙宁SunNingChinaAcademyofRailwaySciences持续发展的轨道交通业—设备监理服务的机遇与挑战RailTransitIndustryGrowinginaSustainableWay-OpportunitiesandChallengesofPlantEngineeringConsultingService轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalEquipmentTechnology3.轨道交通机电设备监理服务的机遇与挑战OpportunitiesandChallengesofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantEngineeringConsultingService

轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment我国铁路发展长期制约我国社会经济发展China’srailwaydevelopmenthaslongrestrictedoursocialandeconomicgrowth.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment铁路“十一五”规划The11thFive-YearPlanofrailways

依据我国中长期铁路网规划，“四纵四横”客运专线长度达到12000kmAccordingtoChina’slongandmedium-termplanforrailwaynetwork,dedicatedFourVerticalandFourHorizontalpassengerrailwaysareaslongas12,000km.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment铁路投资规模估计Estimatedscaleofrailwayinvestment按照规划，2009年，我国还将批准新建铁路里程1万公里左右、投资规模1万亿元；2010年，将再批准新建铁路里程1万公里、投资规模1万亿元。Accordingtotheplan,in2009,Chinawillapproveconstructionofanadditional10,000kmrailwaymileageorso,involvinginvestmentscaleof1TrillionRMB;in2010,itwillfurtherapprove10,000kmrailwaymileage,involvinginvestmentscaleof1TrillionRMB.2009年铁道部计划报批项目投资规模突破1万亿元。当年要花出去的钱约7000亿元，其中基本建设投资计划安排6000亿元，还有其他的一些机器设备、固定资产投资将近1000亿元。另外，2009年和2010年两年计划安排机车车辆购置投资3000亿元左右。In2009,MinistryofRailwaysplanstoreportforapprovalofprojectsinvolving1TrillionRMBinvestment.Intheyear,about700BillionRMBisplannedtobespent,amongwhich600BillionRMBwillbearrangedforinvestmentininfrastructures,andnearly100BillionRMBforinvestmentinmachineryequipmentandfixedassets.Moreover,in2009and2010,theMinistryplanstoarrangeapproximately300BillionRMBtopurchaselocomotives.

调整后的《中长期铁路网规划》项目全部实施后，到2020年铁路建设投资总规模将突破5万亿，营业里程将超过12万公里AftertheprojectsinLongandMedium-termRailwayNetworkPlanarecompletelyfulfilled,by2020totalscaleofrailwayconstructioninvestmentwillsurpass5TrillionRMB,andoperatingmileagewillovertake120,000kilometers.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment我国城市轨道交通建设现狀PresentsituationonconstructionofurbanrailtransitinChina特大城市（北京、上海、广州）正在形成轨道交通网络；Railtransitnetworkisbeingformedinlargecities(Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou)天津、深圳、南京、武汉、重庆已建成并运营第一、二条地铁线路，正在建设第二或多条线路；InTianjin,Shenzhen,Nanjing,WuhanandChongqing,thefirstorsecondmetrolinehasbeencompletedandoperated,thesecondormorelineisunderconstruction近两年国家又先后又批准了成都、杭州、哈尔滨、沈阳、西安、长沙、石家庄、苏州、宁波、青岛、郑州、大连、长春、无锡等十五个城市开展城市轨道交通建设；Inthepasttwoyears,theStatehasapprovedconstructionofurbanrailtransitin15cities,includingChengdu,Hangzhou,Harbin,Shenyang,Xi’an,Changsha,Shijiazhuang,Suzhou,Ningbo,Qingdao,Zhengzhou,Dalian,ChangchunandWuxi.随着城市化的发展，珠江三角洲、长江三角洲、环渤海地区等经济区域正在启动区域性城际轨道交通网络的建设。Withever-growingurbanization,sucheconomiczonesasPearlRiverDelta,YangtzeDeltaandtheareassurroundingBohaiSeaarekickingofftheconstructionofregionalintercityrailtransitnetwork.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment目前我国十座城市，30条线路的运营里程（2008年底）Presentoperationmileageof30linesin10citiesofChina(bytheendof2008)1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment目前我国十座城市，30条线路的运营里程（2008年底）Presentoperationmileageof30linesin10citiesofChina(bytheendof2008)1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment至2008底全国共有14个城市，46条地铁线路在建，线路总长1212kmBytheendof2008,46metrolinesin14citiesnationwidewereunderconstruction,1,212kmlongintotal.十五个城市轨道交通近期建设规划表Near-termconstructionplanningscheduleforrailtransitin15citiesNo.CityPlannedyearsNumberoflinesLength(km)Totalinvestment(100millionRMB)1Beijing2004-201514419.916362Shanghai2005-20121038914393Guangzhou2005-20107127.66487.014Shenzhen2003-20105120.7364.35Nanjing2004-2015397.6368.36Hangzhou2004-2010282.2355.77Chongqing2004-20123822428Wuhan2004-2010359.74237.229Chengdu2004-2013254.18197.1810Tianjin2003-2010251.1209.611Xi’an2006-2015250.3179.512Suzhou2003-2010247.416513Harbin2004-2013245.5316314Shenyang2004-2010240.85171.815Changchun2003-2010237.538.98Total611705.666234.591.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment城轨新线建设Constructionofnewurbanrailtransitlines-目前已经开工建设1300多公里线路，建成运营800多公里线路，按照规划还有约1700公里线路在今后10年左右时间陆续建设完成。

Atpresent,constructionofmorethan1,300kmlineshasbeencommenced,lineswithabove800kmoperatingmileagehavebeencompletedandputintooperation.Accordingtotheplanning,anadditional1,700kmlineswillbecompletedinsuccessioninthe10futureyears.-在2010年左右，我国将有20个城市，2020年，我国将有30个左右的城市有发展城市轨道交通的可能。Itispossibletodevelopurbanrailtransitin20citiesby2010,and30citiesby2020inChina.-按照目前每年开工建设150～200公里线路的发展速度，到2020年，我国建设城市轨道交通线路有可能达到2500～3000公里的规模，约需静态总投资10000～13000亿元。Accordingtothespeedofcommencingconstructionof150~200kmlinesannually,itisexpectedthatby2020urbanrailtransitlinesinChinacouldreachascaleof2500-3000km,whichapproximatelyinvolvesstaticinvestmentof1-1.3TrillionRMB.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment城轨新线建设Newurbanrailtransitlines随着我国城轨车辆系统的国产化率不断提高，车辆在设备投资中的比重正在不断下降，目前已经不到40%。Withever-increasingimportsubstitutionrateofurbanrailvehiclesysteminChina,theproportionofvehiclesinplantinvestmentiscontinuallydropping,whichislessthan40%now.

根据我国现有城轨项目统计，设备投资约占总投资的36%。以地下为主的线路，设备投资约占33%左右，以地面和高架为主的线路，设备投资约占40%。EstimatedaccordingtoexistingurbantransitprojectsinChina,plantinvestmentaccountsforabout36%oftotalinvestment.Forlinesmainlyunderground,plantinvestmenttakesupabout33%;forlinesmainlygroundandoverhead,plantinvestmentrepresentsabout40%.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment城轨老线的更新改造（与设备使用寿命相关）Upgradingandrenovationofoldurbanrailtransitlines(relatedtotheservicelifeofplants)系统综合升级改造—北京地铁1、2号线Comprehensiveupgradingandrenovationofsystem–BeijingMetroLine1&2个别系统更新设备—上海、广州地铁更新车辆Plantsareupdatedinsomesystems–vehiclesareupgradedinShanghaiandGuangzhouMetro新增系统设备—上海新增屏蔽/安全门、北京地铁新增AFC系统、许多城市的AFC系统升级。Systemplantsareadded–shielding/safetydoorareaddedinShanghai,AFCsystemisaddedinBeijingMetro,alotofothercitiesupgradeAFCsystem.按每条线平均年设备更新改造费用1.5亿元计，全国老线的更新改造年均45亿元左右，并将逐年大幅递增。Calculatedaccordingto150MillionRMBupgradingandrenovationexpensefortheplantsofeachlineannually,approximately4.5BillionRMBisneededannuallyonaverageforupgradingandrenovationoftheoldlinesnationwide,whichwillbeincreasedinalargemarginyearbyyear.

1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment轨道交通车辆与机电设备投资估计Estimatedinvestmentinrailtransitvehiclesandmechanical-electricalplants综上分析，2009-2015年间，轨道交通（铁路与城市轨道交通）车辆与机电设备投资保守估计：Tosumup,during2009-2015,conservativeinvestmentinrailtransit(railwayandurbanrailtransit)vehiclesandmechanical-electricalplantsisestimatedat:城市轨道交通：550亿元/年；Urbanrailtransit:55BillionRMB/year铁路（高速与客运专线）2600亿元/年。Railway(high-speedandpassengertransportlines):260BillionRMB/year其中：城市轨道交通会逐年增长，铁路则趋于稳定或下降。Where,urbanrailtransitwillriseyearbyyear,whilerailwaywilltendtostabilizeordrop2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology现代轨道交通产业发展趋势Developmenttrendofmodernrailtransitindustry投资体系多元化Diversifiedinvestmentsystem项目管理社会化Socializedprojectmanagement系统集成技术高Highsystemintegrationtechnology安全环保意识强Strongawarenessofsafetyandenvironmentprotection土建机电一体化Integratedcivilconstructionandmechanical-electricalsystem建设速度超负荷Overloadedconstructionspeed运营服务人性化Humanizedoperationservice2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通设备系统发展特点Developmentfeaturesofrailtransitplantsandsystems系统集成成为主流；Systemintegrationbecomesthemainstream.国产化逐步实现；Importsubstitutionisgraduallyrealized.设备技术含量与运营的技术要求越来越高；Moreandmoreisdemandedonthetechnicalcontentsofplantsandthetechnicalrequirementsofoperation.高度重视全寿命周期成本的评估；Particularemphasisisplacedontheestimationofthecostofwhole-lifecycle.竞争愈加激烈、市场规模愈加扩大、规范性逐步加强：优胜劣汰加速Competitionbecomesfiercer,marketscaleisexpandedbigger,standardizationisstrengthenedstepbystep;survivalofthebestisaccelerated.设备咨询监理的作用越来越重要（城市轨道交通市场化程度高）Theroleofplantconsultingsupervisionbecomesmoreandmoreimportant(market-orientedextentofurbanrailtransitishigh)咨询监理业务领域逐步覆盖建设全过程Consultingsupervisionbusinessfieldgraduallycoverswholeprocessofconstruction;咨询业务已经深入城轨各个技术领域(检验、试验、认证、联调、维护、培训等)。Consultingbusinesshaspenetratedintoalltechnicalfieldsofurbanrailtransit(inspection,test,accreditation,jointdebugging,maintenance,training,etc.);业主和设备承包商日益重视咨询监理服务的作用Theemployersandplantcontractorsattachmoreimportancetotheroleofconsultingsupervisionservice.2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology国产化存在的问题Problemsinimportsubstitution尚未完全掌握机电设备的关键核心技术Keyandcoretechnologiesinmechanical-electricalplantshavenotyetbeenfullymastered;研发工作参差不齐、应用工作进度缓慢R&Dworkisuneven,andapplicationworkprogressesslowly;城轨交通系统市场的准入认证制度尚未建立Theaccessandaccreditationsystemforurbanrailtransitsystemmarkethasnotbeenconstituted;产品技术标准制修订工作滞后于轨道交通快速发展Formulationandrevisionofproducttechnologystandardslagbehindspeedydevelopmentofrailtransmit.

2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalEquipmentTechnology轨道交通设备系统涵盖了车辆、通信信号、牵引供电、运营调度、客运服务和线路工程六大系统，其主要的技术发展趋势为：Railtransitplantsystemcoverssixsystems:vehicle,communicationsignal,tractionpowersupply,operationdispatch,passengertransportserviceandlineengineering.Itsmaintechnicaldevelopmenttrendfeatures:

以大系统理论为基础，建立轨道交通机电设备系统集成创新方法体系；Basedonlargesystemtheory,establishinnovativeapproachsystemforrailtransitmechanical-electricalplantsystem;提高轨道交通机电设备系统的国产化率；Increasetheimportsubstitutionrateofrailtransitmechanical-electricalplantsystem;从全局优化的观点出发，保证机电设备所关注的RAMS水平；Startingfromoverallsituationoptimization,ensureRAMSlevelconcernedbymechanical-electricalplants;从网、线、站的三个层面，形成机电设备系统集成的原则、技术指标和可持续改进的途径；Fromthreelevels–network,lineandstation,formtheprinciple,technicalindicatorsandcontinuouslyimprovedchannelsformechanical-electricalplantsystemintegration;形成并实践轨道交通机电设备系统集成的项目管理模式；Formandpracticetheprojectmanagementmodeofmechanical-electricalplantsystemintegration;从建设为运营服务的角度，量化分析各系统的全寿命周期成本，为运营维修养护的效益最大化创造条件；Fromtheperspectiveofconstructionservingoperation,quantifyandanalyzewhole-lifecyclecostofeachsystem,soastocreateconditionsformaximizedbenefitsofoperation,repairandmaintenance;建立并实践轨道交通机电设备系统的接口管理、风险分析与安全评估、系统联调联试的理论和方法。Establishandpracticethetheoryandapproachesforinterfacemanagement,riskanalysisandsafetyevaluationandjointdebuggingandcommissioningofsystemsofrailtransitmechanical-electricalplantsystem.2.轨晓道交通机竖电设备技董术发展趋伪势Dev展elo架pme既nt枯Tre双nd口of竖Rai会lT鸭ran蒙sit中Me课cha注nic洗al-内Ele覆ctr绒ica寸lP嫁lan乒tT吨ech赌nol蜓ogy轨道交架通机电优系统技桨术集成陈创新体球系Inn抓ova软tio洒ns圣yst烟em趁for顿me俘cha恢nic排al-瞎ele铲ctr慰ica迅ls挺yst柿emmana绩geme习nti若nteg或rati智ono汇fra守ilt匹rans芦it轨道交通舍机电系统责管理集成钻创新体系Inno叙vati帝ons忽yste雁mfo烦rme疫chan厌ical状-ele饶ctri醋cal寺syst死em输mana秒geme搭nti姻nteg询rati垫ono拣fra尤ilt记rans镜it2.轨患道交通机朗电设备技逐术发展趋皂势Dev知elo厌pme例nt烤Tre挽nd顾of算Rai歌lT酷ran辨sit拍Me旦cha壁nic盯al-需Ele旗ctr味ica沙lP病lan恨tT祸ech微nol矛ogy轨道交饲通机电座系统R众AM管杨理RAM已mana份geme会ntf兼orm牛echa树nica芹l-el谜ectr掠ical祸sys俯tem充ofr控ail与tran药sit2.横轨道交让通机电耐设备技花术发展赢趋势Dev舱elo侄pme晌nt巷Tre涛nd登of之Rai污lT悔ran楚sit慎Me腊cha村nic跟al-洁Ele歼ctr架ica忽lP即lan渐tT妄ech牵nol抚ogy轨道交通破安全评估降体系与应是用实践Safe镜tye厅valu弓atio下nsy夸stem深and补app父lica舌tion县pra降ctic滥eso解fra驾ilt滔rans午it生命周期织与安全评秩估Lif冰ec护ycl极ea都nd棵saf呜ety么ev坚alu益ati漫on2.轨糊道交通机妄电设备技移术发展趋宇势Dev野elo雨pme碗nt佩Tre该nd侧of耕Rai兰lT猴ran庄sit暮Me库cha眉nic据al-垃Ele置ctr辞ica忍lP肢lan驻tT坝ech第nol烛ogy建设项目医各阶段解庭决风险问葬题时的性购价比Cos夏t-e巩ffe毕cti饱ven命ess尖ra笛tio浑of廊co志nst瓶ruc困tio际np线roj却ect奖st概or政eso孔lveris耳kp剂rob志lem永in酸ea然ch搭pha枣se2.轨遮道交通机哑电设备技隶术发展趋扫势Deve准lopm房诚ent贿Tren吸dof锁Rai田lTr挽ansi李tMe响chan镰ical拍-Ele唯ctri风cal毅Plan淹tTe周chno抬logy轨道交陵通安全苗评估体屋系与应拨用实践Safe饿tye氧valu增atio困nsy付stem腿and奸app从lica掀tion椒pra符ctic将eso吧fra物ilt编rans抓it轨道交古通系统船联调技只术Join疮tde狠bugg墨ing衬tech狭nolo梦gyi床nra订ilt险rans饶its董yste棚m2.期轨道交牧通机电托设备技形术发展必趋势Deve绞lopm男ent校Tren构dof替Rai话lTr眯ansi橡tMe规chan培ical行-Ele声ctri绵cal歼Plan胆tTe馋chno唐logy系统联零调联试矿是对系舰统集成挠的设计钱、施工铲的优劣动的检验坚和修正涌，采用登实车进眉行线下末基础、康车辆、贿通信信挽号、牵皇引供电柔、运营彩调度、未客运服智务等各里系统的圣性能或文功能和伴系统间匠配合的誉动态调松试。Join喷tde竖bugg寸ing忙and夜comm移issi料onin脖gof窝sys恐tems花is辨toi史nspe贵cta秤ndr省evis控eth警equ朱alit届yof仆des政ign胜and桐cons勤truc译tion榜of蓬syst分emi弊nteg股rati唇on,鹿and录toc招ondu页ctd甩ynam爪ica波djus晴tmen秃tof百per造form弓ance夺or辰func坦tion烫san席din歉ter-减syst周emc辅oord隶inat绸ion坡ofa棒lls个yste冈ms,融incl陷udin弄gfo抗unda何tion做bel鼻owl书ines志,ve练hicl勒es,由comm册unic兵atio猛nsi匆gnal辟,tr垄acti砍onp旨ower末sup币ply,棍ope吩rati比ond棕ispa刚tch角and旦pass棍enge胁rtr券ansp眼ort矿serv糟ice.通过系统凭联调联试构工作，测悲试、评价障轨道交通镇各系统设台计的安全峰性、可靠继性、平稳其性等一系易列技术性泄能。Thr糊oug阵hj午oin焦td脏ebu肾ggi蝴ng质and敏co神mmi态ssi石oni姜ng醒of嫩sys孩tem敢s,壶ar届ang裹eo苏ft敲ech滤nic葡al沈per计for膝man叛ces斗,l投ike体sa歇fet境y,领rel容iab洽ili考ty壮and伤st慈abi沫lit钳yo否ft皇he钟des问ign龙of谁al恳lr府ail跌tr夸ans涨it狂sys撕tem宜s,挎are栏te底ste副da执nd五eva贵lua熔ted体.在“V”嫩生命周期已模型中的寄试验验证Expe咏rime狼ntal温ver挎ific怕atio肚nin睡Vl疗ife缩慧cycl螺emo杠del2.坡轨道交购通机电拔设备技愚术发展廊趋势Deve榨lopm秩ent缝Tren勤dof虏Rai球lTr慕ansi诵tMe俗chan稻ical西-Ele峰ctri矿cal瘦Plan向tTe某chno酱logy轨道交通傅系统联调沿技术Joi进nt游deb草ugg愿ing常te烘chn坟olo竖gy偿in叫rai叉lt故ran蝴sit名sy趴ste拢m3.轨若道交通机揪电设备监渗理服务的哀机遇与挑卧战Oppo苏rtun利itie伞san愈dCh莫alle盼nges抬of宁Rail役Tra厨nsit觉Mec厅hani浪cal-滩Elec馆tric坝alP记lant卵Eng紧inee佳ring豆Con苗sult身ing粥Serv电ice轨道交弓通设备同发展对粮设备咨穷询监理扶行业服辰务规模嚼预计Est田ima线tio立no吧fr忍ail家tr俗ans法it市pla嘴nt倦gro伙wth罪co器ntr虎ibu思tin泪gt报ot妻he甚ser块vic叼es委cal排eo茅fp费lan牌te细ngi坑nee有rin汁gc柏ons源ult黄ing逼in屡dus飞try轨道交胸通建设井为工程认咨询监子理行业妈提供发筒展机遇柏。Rail朗tra查nsit著con悟stru卸ctio省npr胆ovid场eso芳ppor龙tuni除ties听for收dev办elop轮ment凡of店cons滨ulti兼nge枝ngin摔eeri扬ngi阴ndus抽try.铁路机既电设备桑咨询监海理年需书求（预棕计）：凡1竹0亿元怒/年Ann龄ual赛de索man咱do春nr喂ail兴way竞me盗cha忠nic峰al-亮ele月ctr食ica唯lp慈lan环te锣ngi识nee澡rin挥gc宣ons闸ult盆ing妇:肿1B捕ill气ion历RM书B/y惜ear（不含个车辆投蚁资部分烘，按年屿设备投立资额约资100士0亿的秧1%计关）(exc期ludi未ngi捎nves列tmen断tin讨veh剖icle胶s,c迷alcu喘late漠dac蜻cord站ing刺to1阵%of左abo脾uta迷nnua末lin关vest愧ment朵on先plan霸tsa蜡t10枯0Bi雾llio耽nRM程B城市轨刊道交通炼设备咨焦询监理稳需求（始预计）咐：廉1拾1亿元济/年（按年廉投资额榆550抖亿的2融%计）Dema诞ndo获nur德ban吓rail惨tra端nsit狡pla惹nte剩ngin教eeri亦ngc发onsu猫ltin岭g(a岸ntic德ipat毫ed):蔑1.1战Bil间lion散RMB蛙/yea交r合计：临21优亿元/患年Tota私l:尸2.1档Bil绞lion秋RMB枯/yea碎r随着社会侦化服务的捡加强和完肯善，总体肆上，需求锡将逐年稳斤步增长Wit归hs毯oci毒ali婆zed批se早rvi芝ces水be冲ing廊st症ren缸gth所ene较da片nd禽imp床rov惊ed,射on灵th刊ew凤hol顷e,吉the置de度man牺dw痛ill咽be降st陵ead洒ily亡in粘cre甲ase粉dy晶ear谨by抢ye挨ar.从阶段漆服务转细向全过买程服务Shif狭tfr隐oms伞tage睬ser涂vice艺to老whol茎e-pr没oces祝sse垂rvic彼e从专业服扰务转为系表统服务Shi域ft芳fro巴mp徐rof弓ess斑ion灿al沾ser叮vic飞et烧os终yst灯em毙ser坛vic库e从工程幼拓展为落工程机障电并重Turn南fro贸men脑gine万erin庭gex雹tens贝ion炊toe青mpha枝sis剩one丘ngin速eeri证nga买ndm麦echa愤nica摘l-el颈ectr朴ical念pla萍nts从技术模服务转猛向技术鲁和管理息并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