宏观经济学MBA教程

二、宏观经济计量与核算

MEASURINGANATION’SINCOME第一页，共四十五页。

TheCircularFlow

Households

GovernmentFirms

MarketsforFactorofProduction

FinancialMarketsMarketsforGoodsandServices

ForeignCountryFirmRevenueIncomeFactorPaymentsPrivateSavingTaxesGovernmentDeficitConsumptionGovernmentPurchasesInvestmentImportExportInternationalCapitalFlow第二页，共四十五页。RichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖。二战期间，完成《战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计》白皮书。时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说：“我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中”。1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任。1950年，受联合国统计委员会委托，出版《国民帐户体系》（SNA），1968年修订后正式出版。1975年出版《社会和人口统计系统》（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。第三页，共四十五页。WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。1941年出版《美国经济结构：1919-1929》，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。1966年出版《投入产出经济学》。第四页，共四十五页。

●国民收入帐户●投入产出表●资金循环表●国际收支表●国民资产负债表国民帐户体系ASYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS第五页，共四十五页。Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy.Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.GrossDomesticProduct第六页，共四十五页。ImportantFeaturesofGDPOutputisvaluedatmarketprices.Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).第七页，共四十五页。ImportantFeaturesofGDPItincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.

第八页，共四十五页。ImportantFeaturesofGDPItmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).第九页，共四十五页。WhatIsCountedinGDP?GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets.第十页，共四十五页。WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly,suchasillegaldrugs.第十一页，共四十五页。GrossNationalProductGrossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation’spermanentresidents,regardlessofwheretheyare.第十二页，共四十五页。ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncomeNetNationalProduct(NNP)PersonalIncomeDisposablePersonalIncome第十三页，共四十五页。NetNationalProduct(NNP)Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation.第十四页，共四十五页。PersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.第十五页，共四十五页。DisposablePersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.第十六页，共四十五页。GrossNationalProductFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates第十七页，共四十五页。GNP—NationalandPerCapitaIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates第十八页，共四十五页。NationalIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates第十九页，共四十五页。TheFourComponentsofGDPGDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:

äConsumption(C)

äInvestment(I)

äGovernmentPurchases(G)

äNetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NX第二十页，共四十五页。TheFourComponentsofGDP

Consumption(C):

äThespendingbyhouseholdsongoods andservices,withtheexceptionof purchasesofnewhousing.Investment(I):

äThespendingoncapitalequipment, inventories,andstructures,including newhousing.第二十一页，共四十五页。TheFourComponentsofGDPGovernmentPurchases(G):

äThespendingongoodsandservicesby local,state,andfederalgovernments.

äDoesnotincludetransferpayments becausetheyarenotmadeinexchangefor currentlyproducedgoodsorservices.NetExports

(NX):

äExportsminusimports.第二十二页，共四十五页。BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000第二十三页，共四十五页。BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption69%第二十四页，共四十五页。Investment15%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%第二十五页，共四十五页。Consumption68%GovernmentPurchases19%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Investment15%第二十六页，共四十五页。NetExports-1%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%Investment15%GovernmentPurchases19%第二十七页，共四十五页。RealversusNominalGDPNominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.

第二十八页，共四十五页。RealversusNominalGDPAnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator.第二十九页，共四十五页。价格指数(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数：帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：第三十页，共四十五页。GDPDeflatorTheGDP

deflator

measuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.第三十一页，共四十五页。GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:第三十二页，共四十五页。GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:第三十三页，共四十五页。ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:第三十四页，共四十五页。ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:第三十五页，共四十五页。ConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindex

(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber.

第三十六页，共四十五页。ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.第三十七页，共四十五页。TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorEconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo.第三十八页，共四十五页。TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheCPI... ...includesonlyconsumergoods. ...includesimports. ...ismeasuredusingafixedbasketofgoodsandservices.第三十九页，共四十五页。TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheGDPPriceDeflator... ...includesallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically. ...excludesimports. ...ismeasuredusingcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.第四十页，共四十五页。GDPandEconomicWell-BeingGDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell-beingofasociety.GDPperperson

tellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy.第四十一页，共四十五页。GDPandEconomicWell-BeingHigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving.GDPisnotaperfectmeasureofthe happinessorqualityoflife,however.第四十二页，共四十五页。GDPandEconomicWell-BeingSomethingsthatcontributetowell-beingarenotincludedinGDP.

äThevalueofleisure.

äThevalueofacleanenvironment.

äThevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesplaceoutsideofmarkets,suchasthevalueofthetimep