复习加油3复试专业英语版

专业英语汇Howtodefinetheaggregatepricelevel?如何衡量价格指数ThreemeasuresoftheaggregatepricelevelarecommonlyencounteredineconomicThefirstistheGDPdeflator(GDP平减指数whichisdefinedasnominalGDPdividedbyrealAnotherpopularmeasureoftheaggregatepricelevelistheProducerPriceIndex(生产者价格指数whichisameasureofthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyfirms.ThemeasureoftheaggregatepricelevelthatismostfrequentlyreportedinthepressistheConsumerPriceIndex(消费者价格指数whichismeasuredbypricingabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalurbanWhat’sthedisadvantageandadvantageofholdingequityratherthandebt?持有股权的优劣Themaindisadvantageofowningacorporation’sequitiesratherthanitsdebtisthatanequityholderisaresidualclaimant(剩余求偿权),thatis,thecorporationmustpayallitsdebtholdersbeforeitpaysitsequityholders.Themainadvantageofholdingequitiesisthatequityholdersbenefitdirectlyfromanyincreasesinthecorporation’sprofitabilityorassetvaluebecauseequitiesconferownershiprightsontheequityholders.Debtholdersdonotshareinthisbenefit,becausetheirpaymentsarefixed.What’sthedifferencebetweenprimaryandsecondarymarket?一级市场与二级市场的区别Aprimarymarketisafinancialmarketinwhichnewissuesofasecurity,suchasabondorastock,aresoldtoinitialbuyersbythecorporationor ernmentagencyborrowingthefunds.AsecondarymarketisafinancialmarketinwhichsecuritiesthathavebeenpreviouslyissuedcanbeWhat’sthedifferencebetweenforeignbondandEurobond?外国债券和欧洲债券的区别Foreignbondsaresoldinaforeigncountryandaredenominatedinthatcountry’scurrency.Forexample,abondissuedbyadenominatedinU.S.dollarssoldinNewYork.Eurobondisabonddenominatedinacurrencyotherthanthatofthecountryinwhichitissold.Forexample,abonddenominatedinU.S.dollarssoldin.What’sassettransformationanddiversification？资产转换和分散Financialintermediariescreateandsellassetswithriskcharacteristicsthatpeoplearecomfortablewith,andtheintermediariesthenusethefundstheyacquirebysellingtheseassetstopurchaseotherassetsthatmayhavefarmorerisk.Thisprocessofrisksharingisreferredasassettransformation,becauseinasense,riskyassetsareturnedintosaferassetsforinvestors.Diversificationentailsinvestinginaportfolioofassetswhosereturnsdonotalwaysmovetogetherwiththeresultthatoverallriskislowerthanforindividualassets.Italsorefersto“Youshouldn'tputallyoureggsinonebasket”.Diversificationcaneliminatefirm-specificrisk—theuncertaintyassociatedwiththespecificwhichaffectsallcompaniestradedonthestockmarket.Forexample,whentheeconomygoesintoarecession,mostcompaniesexperiencefallingsales,profitandlowstockreturns.Diversificationreducestheriskofholdingstocks,butitdoesnoteliminateit.Exinthefollowingconcepts:asymmetricinformation,adverseselectionandmoralhazard.(1)Asymmetricinformation(信息不对称referstothatonepartyoftendoesnotknowenoughabouttheotherpartytomakeaccuratedecisions.Forexample,aborrowerwhotakesoutaloanusuallyhasbetteraboutthepotentialreturnsandriskassociatedwiththeinvestmentprojectsforwhichthefundsareinvestedthanthelenderdoes.Adverseselection(逆向选择istheproblemcreatedbyasymmetricinformationbeforethetransactionAdverseselectioninfinancialmarketsoccurswhenthepotentialborrowerswhoarethemostlikelytodefaultaretheoneswhomostactivelyseekoutaloanandarethusmostlikelytobeselected.Moralhazard(道德风险)istheproblemcreatedbyasymmetricinformationafterthetransactionMoralhazardinfinancialmarketsistheriskthattheborrowermightengageinactivitiesthatareundesirablefromthelenderspointofview,becausetheymakeitlesslikelythattheloanwillbepaidback.What’sthefunctionofmoney?货币的职能Moneyhasthreeprimaryfunctionsinanyeconomy:asamediumofexchange,asaunitofaccount,andasastoreofvalue.Whenmoneyisusedtopayforgoodsandservices,itystheroleofamediumofexchange(流通Theuseofmoneyasamediumofexchangepromoteseconomicefficiencybyminimizingthetimespentinexchanginggoodsandservices.Thesecondroleofmoneyistoprovideaunitofaccount(价值尺度),thatis,itisusedtomeasurevaluegoodsandservicesintheMoneyalsofunctionsasastoreofvalue(储藏).Astoreofvalueisusedtosavepurchasingpowerfromthetime eisreceiveduntilthetimeitisspent.Thisfunctionofmoneyisuseful,becausemostofusdonotwanttospendour eimmediayuponreceivingit,butratherprefertowaituntilwehavethetimeorthedesiretoshop.What’stheFisherequationandFishereffect?费雪等式与费雪效应TheFisherequationstatesthatthenominalinterestrateequalstherealinterestrateplustheexpectedrateofinflation.Theequationlsusthatallelseequal,ariseinacountry’sexpectedinflationratewilleventuallycauseanequalriseinthenominalinterestrate.Similarly,afallintheexpectedinflationratewilleventuallycauseafallinthenominalinterestrate.Thislong-runrelationshipbetweeninflationandinterestratesiscalledtheFishereffect.TheFishereffectimplies,forexample,thatifU.S.inflationweretorisepermanentlyfromaconstantlevelof5percentperyeartoaconstantlevelof10percentperyear,dollarinterestrateswouldeventuallycatchupwiththehigherinflation,risingby5percentagepointsperyearfromtheirinitiallevel.Thesechangeswouldleavetherealrateofreturnondollarassetsunchanged.TheFishereffectisthereforeanotherexampleofthegeneralideathatinthelongrun,purelymonetarydevelopmentsshouldhavenoeffectonaneconomy’srealvariables.Howtoexinthenegativerelationbetweenthetyofmoneydemandedandtheinterestrate?Wecanexinthatthetyofmoneydemandedandtheinterestrateshouldbenegativelyrelatedbyusingtheconceptofopportunitycost(机会成本),theamountofrevenuesacrificedbytakingonecourseofactionratherthananotherAstheinterestrateonbondsrises,theopportunitycostofholdingmoneyrises,thusmoneyislessdesirableandthetyofmoneydemandedmustfall.RiskPremium风险溢Thespreadbetweentheinterestratesonbondswithdefaultriskanddefault-bonds,bothofthesamematurity,calledtheriskpremium,indicateshowmuchadditionalinterestpeoplemustearntobewillingtoholdthatriskyBrieflyintroduceexpectationstheory,segmentedmarketstheoryandliquiditypremiumTheexpectationstheory(预期假说)ofthetermstructurestatesthefollowingproposition:theinterestrateonalong-termbondwillequalanaverageoftheshort-terminterestratesthatpeopleexpecttooccuroverthelifeofthelong-termbond.Thesegmentedmarketstheory(市场分割假说)ofthetermstructureseesmarketsfordifferent-maturitybondsascompleyseparateandsegmented.Theinterestrateforeachbondwithadifferentmaturityisthendeterminedbythesupplyofanddemandforthatbond,withnoeffectsfromexpectedreturnsonotherbondswithothermaturities.Theliquiditypremiumtheory(流动性溢价假说ofthetermstructurestatesthattheinterestrateonalong-termbondwillequalanaverageofshort-terminterestratesexpectedtooccuroverthelifeofthelong-termbondplusaliquiditypremium.Itisalsocalledpreferredhabitattheory(偏好停留假说).What’sthedifferencebetweenadaptiveexpectationandrationalAdaptiveexpectation(适应性预期)statesthatexpectationsformfrompastexperienceonlyandchangesinexpectationswilloccurslowlyovertimeaspastdatachange.Forexample,expectationsofinflationistypicallyviewedasbeinganaverageofpastinflationrates.Soifinflationhadformerlybeensteadyata5%rate,expectationsoffutureinflationwouldbe5%also.Rationalexpectation(理性预期canbestatedasfollows:expectationswillbeidenticaltooptimalforecasts(thebestguessofthefuture)usingallavailableinformation.EfficientMarketHypothesis有效市场假Theefficientmarkethypothesisstatesthatcurrentpricesinafinancialmarketwillbesetsothattheoptimalforecastofasecurity’sreturnusingallavailableinformationequalsthesecurity’sequilibriumreturnbecauseinanefficientmarketallunexploitedprofitopportunitieswillbeeliminatedbyarbitrager(者).“LemonsProblem”次品问Aparticularaspectofthewaytheadverseselectionprobleminterfereswiththeefficientfunctioningofamarketiscalled“lemonsproblem”.Wecanusetheused-carmarkettoillustratethisconceptPotentialbuyersofusedcarsarefrequentlyunabletoassessthequalityofthecar,thatis,theycan’tlwhetheraparticularusedcarisagoodcaroralemon(次品).Thepricethatabuyerpaysmustthereforereflecttheaveragequalityofthecarsinthemarket,somewherebetweenthelowvalueofalemonandthehighvalueofagoodcarTheownerofausedcarbycontrast,ismorelikelytoknowwhetherthecarisagoodcaroralemon.Ifthecarisalemon,theownerismorethanhappytosellitatthepricethebuyeriswillingtopay,which,beingsomewherebetweenthevalueofalemonandagoodcarisgreaterthanthelemonsvalue.Howeverifthecarisagoodcartheownerknowsthatthecarisundervaluedatthepricethebuyeriswillingtopay,andsotheownermaynotwanttosellit.Asaresultofthisadverseselection,fewgoodusedcarswillcometothemarket.Becausetheaveragequalityofausedcaravailableinthemarketwillbelowandbecausefewpeoplewanttobuyalemon,therewillbefewsales.Theused-carmarketwillfunctionpoorlyorevendisappear.Principal-agentProblem委托-问Principal-agentproblemreferstothatthemanagersincontrol(theagents)mayactintheirowninterestratherthanintheinterestofthestockholder(theprincipals)becausethemanagershavelessincentivetoizeprofitsthanthestockholderdo.Theprincipal-agentproblem,whichisanexampleofmoralhazard,arisesonlybecauseamanagerhasmoreinformationabouthisactivitiesthanthestockholderdoes.So,thereisasymmetricWhat’s“irrationalexuberance”proposedbyAlanGreenspan?非理性繁Irrationalexuberancereferstoaphenomenonthatassetprices,inthestockmarketandrealestate,aredrivenwellabovetheirfundamentaleconomicvaluesbyinvestorpsychologyTheresultisanasset-pricebubble(资产价格),suchasthetechstockmarketbubbleofthelate1990sortherecenthousingpricebubbleinsubprimecrisis.Howtosolveasymmetricinformationproblems?如何解决信息不对称的问题SecuritizationandSubprimemortgage资产化与次级抵Subprimemortgagesaremortgagesforborrowerswithless-than-slarcreditSecuritizationistheprocessoftransformingotherwiseilliquidfinancialassets(suchasresidentialmortgages,autoloans,andcreditcardreceivables),whichhavetypicallybeenthemainbusinessofbankinginstitutions,intomarketablecapitalmarketsecurities.What’stime-inconsistencyproblem?时间不一致问Thetime-inconsistencyproblemissomethingwedealwithcontinuallyineverydaylife.Weoftenhaveanthatweknowwillproduceagood einthelongrun,butwhentomorrowcomes,wejustcan'thelpourselvesandwedenyournbecausengsohasshort-rungains.Inotherwords,wefindourselvesunabletoconsistentlyfollowagoodnovertime,andthegoodnissaidtobetime-inconsistentandwillsoonbeabandoned.PoliticalBusinessCycle政治经济周Politicalbusinesscycleisaprocessthatcanbeillustratedinthefollowingexample.Justbeforeanelection,expansionarypoliciesarepursuedtolowerunemploymentandinterestrates.Aftertheelection,thebadeffectsofthesepolicies,thatishighinflationandhighinterestrates,comehometoroost,requiringcontractionarypoliciesthatpoliticianshopethepublicwillforgetbeforethenextelection.What’smoneymultiplierandwhatarethefactorsthataffectit?货币乘数及其影响因素Themoneymultiplier,denotedbym,lsushowmuchthemoneysupplychangesforagivenchangeinthemonetarybase.Therelationshipbetweenthemoneysupply,themoneymultiplierandthemonetarybaseisdescribedbythefollowingequation:M=m×MBThemoneymultiplierisafunctionofthecurrencyratiosetbydepositorc,theexcessreservesratiosetbybankse,andtherequiredreserveratiosetbytheFedr.ThemoneymultipliermisthusWhatarethetoolsofmonetary?货币政策工Therearethreetoolsofmonetarythatcanbeconductedbythecentralbank,suchasopenmarketoperations,discountlendingandreserverequirements.Openmarketoperations(公开市场操作)arethemostimportantmonetarytool,becausetheyareprimarydeterminantsofchangesininterestratesandthemonetarybase,themainsourceoffluctuationsinthemoneysupply.Openmarketpurchasesexpandreservesandthemonetarybase,therebyincreasingthemoneysupplyandloweringshort-terminterestrates.Openmarketsalesshrinkreservesandthemonetarybase,decreasingthemoneysupplyandraisingshort-terminterestrates.Openmarketoperationshavefouradvantagesovertheothertoolsofmonetary:①OpenmarketoccurattheinitiativeoftheFed,whichhascompletecontrolovertheirvolume.②Openmarketoperationsareflexibleandprecise,andtheycanbeusedtoanyextent.③Openmarketoperationsareeasilyreversed.④Openmarketoperationscanbeimplementedquickly,sincetheyinvolvenoadministrativedelays.ThefacilityatwhichbankscanborrowreservesfromtheFediscalledthediscountwindow(贴现窗口Thefacilityisintendedtobeabackupsourceofliquidityforbanksduringfinancialcrisis.ThemostimportantadvantageofdiscountisthattheFedcanuseittoperformitsroleoflenderoflastresort(最后人).ThedisadvantageofdiscountisthatthedecisionstotakeoutdiscountloansaremadebybanksandarethereforenotcompleycontrolledbytheFed.Changesinreserverequirements(法定存款准备金)affectthemoneysupplybycausingthemoneysupplymultipliertochange.AriseinreserverequirementsreducestheamountofdepositsthatcanbesupportedbyagivenlevelofthemonetarybaseandwillleadtoacontractionofthemoneysupplyAriseinreserverequirementsalsoincreasesthedemandforreservesandraisesthefederalfundsrate.Conversely,adeclineinreserverequirementsleadstoanexpansionofthemoneysupplyandafallinthefederalfundsrate.Reserverequirementshaveatleastthreedisadvantages:①Owingtofinancialinnovation,reserverequirementsarenolongerbindingformostbanks,sothistoolismuchlesseffectivethanitoncewas.②Raisingtherequirementscancauseimmediateliquidityproblemsforbankswherereserverequirementsarebinding.③Continuallyfluctuatingreserverequirementswouldalsocreatemoreuncertaintyforbanksandmaketheirliquiditymanagementmoredifficult.LawofOnePriceandTheoryofPurchasingPowerParity一价定理与力评价理Thelawofonepricestatesthatiftwocountriesproduceanidenticalgood,andtransportationcostsandtradebarriersareverylow,thepriceofthegoodshouldbethesamethroughouttheworldnomatterwhichcountryproducesit.Thetheoryofpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)statesthatexchangeratesbetweenanytwocurrencieswilladjusttoreflectchangesinthepricelevelsofthetwocountries.ThetheoryofPPPissimplyanapplicationofthelawofonepricetonationalpricelevelsratherthantoindividualprices.ThestatementthatexchangeratesequalrelativepricelevelsissometimesreferredtoasabsolutePPP(绝对力平价).RelativePPP(相对力平价)statesthatthepercentagechangeintheexchangeratebetweentwocurrenciesoveranyperiodequalsthedifferencebetweenthepercentagechangesinnationalpricelevels.RealExchangeRate实际汇Therealexchangeratereferstotherateatwhichdomesticgoodscanbeexchangedforforeigngoods.Initisthepriceofdomesticgoodsrelativetothepriceofforeigngoodsdenominatedinthedomesticcurrency.Forexample,ifabasketofgoodsinNewYorkcosts$50,whilethecostofthesamebasketofgoodsinTokyo$75becauseitcosts7500yenwhiletheexchangerateisat100yenperdollar,thentherealexchangerateis0.66(=$50/$75).Therealexchangerateisbelowl,indicatingthatitischeapertobuythebasketofgoodsintheUnitedStatesthaninJapan.Whythetheoryofpurchasingpowerparitycannotfullyexinexchangerates?力平价的缺陷(1)Contrarytotheassumptionofthelawofoneprice,transportcostsandrestrictionsontradecertainlydoexist.Thesetradebarriersmaybehighenoughtopreventsomegoodsfrombeingtradedbetweencountries.(2)Monopolisticpracticesingoodsmarketsmayin ctwithtransportcostsandothertradebarrierstoweakenfurtherthelinkbetweenthepricesofsimilargoodssoldindifferentcountries.Becausetheinflationdatareportedindifferentcountriesarebasedondifferentcommoditybaskets,thereisnoreasonforexchangeratechangestooffsetofficialmeasuresofinflationdifferences,evenwhentherearenobarrierstotradeandallproductsaretradable.MonetaryNeutrality货币中Monetaryneutralitystatesthatinthelongrun,aone-timepercentageriseinthemoneysupplyismatchedbythesameone-timepercentageriseinthepricelevel,leavingunchangedtherealmoneysupplyandallotherrealvariablessuchasrealinterestrates.ExchangeRateOvershooting汇率超Thephenomenonthattheexchangeratefallsbymoreintheshortrunthanitdoesinthelongrunwhenthemoneysupplyincreasesiscalledexchangerateovershooting.ItcanhelpexinwhyexchangeratesexhibitsomuchExchangerateovershootingisadirectconsequenceoftheshort-runrigidityofthepricelevel.Inahypotheticalworldwherethepricelevelcouldadjustimmediaytoitsnew,long-runlevelafteramoneysupplyincrease,theinterestratewouldnotfallbecausepriceswouldadjustimmediayandpreventtherealmoneysupplyfromrising.Thus,theexchangeratewouldmaintainequilibriumsimplybyjumtoitsnew,long-runlevelrightInterestParityCondition利率平价条Theuncoveredinterestparitycondition(非抛补利率平价)statesthatthedomesticinterestrateequalstheforeigninterestrateminustheexpectedappreciationofthedomesticcurrency,orequivalently,thedomesticinterestrateequalstheforeigninterestrateplustheexpectedappreciationoftheforeigncurrencyIfthedomesticinterestrateishigherthantheforeigninterestrate,thereisapositiveexpectedappreciationoftheforeigncurrency,whichcompensatesforthelowerforeigninterestrate.ThisconditioncanberewrittenasThecoveredinterestparitycondition(抛补利率平价)statesthattheratesofreturnondollardepositsand“coveredforeigndepositsmustbethesameSupposeyouwanttobuyaeurodepositwithdollarsbutwouldliketobecertainaboutthenumberofdollarsitwillbeworthattheendofayearYoucanavoidexchangerateriskbybuyingaeurodepositand,atthesametime,sellingtheproceedsofyourinvestmentforwardWesayyouhave“covered”yourself,thatis,avoidedthepossibilityofanunexpecteddepreciationoftheeuro.UnsterilizedForeignExchangeInterventionandSterilizedForeignExchangeAforeignexchangeinterventioninwhichacentralbankallowsthepurchaseorsaleofdomesticcurrencyhaveaneffectonthemonetarybase,iscalledanunsterilizedforeignexchangeintervention(非冲销式干预).Anunsterilizedinterventioninwhichdomesticcurrencyissoldtopurchaseforeignassetsleadstoagainininternationalreserves,anincreaseinthemoneysupply,andadepreciationofthedomesticcurrency.Anunsterilizedinterventioninwhichdomesticcurrencyispurchasedbysellingforeignassetsleadstoadropininternationalreserves,adecreaseinthemoneysupply,andanappreciationofthedomesticcurrency.Aforeignexchangeinterventionwithanoffsettingopenmarketoperationthatleavesthemonetarybaseunchangediscalledasterilizedforeignexchangeintervention(冲销式干预AsterilizedinterventionleavesthemoneysupplyunchangedandsohasnodirectwayofaffectinginterestratesortheexpectedfutureexchangeFixedExchangeRateRegime,FloatingExchangeRateRegimeandManagedFloatInafixedexchangerateregime(固定汇率制thevalueofacurrencyispeggedrelativetothevalueofoneothercurrency,whichiscalledtheanchorcurrency(锚货币),sothattheexchangerateisfixedintermsoftheanchorcurrency.Inafloatingexchangerateregime(浮动汇率制),thevalueofacurrencyisallowedtofluctuateagainstallothercurrencies.Whencountriesinterveneinforeignexchangemarketsinanattempttoinfluencetheirexchangeratesbybuyingandsellingforeignassets,theregimeisreferredtoasamanagedfloatingregime(管理浮动汇率制oradirtyfloating(肮脏浮动).WhataretheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofGoldStandard?金本位的利与弊BeforeWorldWarI,theworldeconomyoperatedunderthegoldstandard,afixedexchangerateregimeinwhichthecurrencyofmostcountrieswasconvertibledirectlyintogoldatfixedrates,soexchangeratesbetweencurrencieswerealsofixed.Thefixedexchangeratesunderthegoldstandardhadtheimportantadvantageofencouragingworldtradebyeliminatingtheuncertaintythatoccurswhenexchangeratesfluctuate.Therearedisadvantagesofgoldstandardasfollows:①Adherencetothegoldstandardmeantthatahadnocontroloveritsmonetarybecauseitsmoneysupplywasdeterminedbygoldflowsbetweencountries.②MonetarythroughouttheworldwasgreatlyinfluencedbytheproductionofgoldandgoldCurrencyBoardandDollarization货币局制度与Currencyboard(货币局制度meansthatthedomesticcurrencyisbacked100byaforeigncurrencyandinwhichthenote-issuingauthoritywhetherthecentralbankortheernmentestablishesafixedexchangeratetothisforeigncurrencyandstandsreadytoexchangedomesticcurrencyfortheforeigncurrencyatthisratewheneverthepublicrequestsit.Acurrencyboardisjustavariantofafixedexchange-ratetargetinwhichthecommitmenttothefixedexchangerateisespeciallystrongbecausetheconductofmonetaryisineffectputonautopilot,andtakencompleyoutofthehandsofthecentralbankandtheernment.Dollarization(化)meanstheadoptionofasoundcurrency,liketheU.S.dollar,asacountry’smoney.Indeed,dollarizationisjustanothervariantofafixedexchange-ratetargetwithanevenstrongercommitmentmechanismthanacurrencyboardprovides.Thecommondisadvantageofbothregimesisthatacountrythattiesitsexchangeratetoananchorcurrencyofalargercountrylosescontrolofitsmonetary.tyTheoryofMoney货币数量Thetytheoryofmoneystatesthatnominal eisdeterminedsolelybymovementsinthetyofmoney.Wecanderivetheconclusionfromtheequationofexchange(方程式):MV=PY.Sincetheinstitutionalandtechnologicalfeaturesoftheeconomywouldaffectvelocityofmoney(货币流通速度)onlyslowlyovertime,sovelocityVwouldnormallybereasonablyconstantintheshortrun.Becausetheclassicaleconomiststhoughtthatwagesandpriceswerecompleyflexible,theybelievedthatthelevelofaggregateoutputYproducedintheeconomyduringnormaltimeswouldremainatthefull-employmentlevel,soYintheequationofexchangecouldalsobetreatedasreasonablyconstantintheshortrun.So,fortheclassicaleconomists,thetytheoryofmoneyprovidedanexnationofmovementsinthepricelevel:movementsinthepricelevelresultsolelyfromchangesinthetyofmoney.LiquidityPreferenceTheory流动性偏好理TheliquiditypreferencetheoryofJohnMaynardKeynespointedoutthattherearethreemotivesbehindthedemandformoney:thetransactionsmotive,theprecautionarymotive,andthespeculativemotive.Thedemandofmoneyfortransactionandprecautionarymotivesisproportionalto e,whilethedemandofmoneyforspeculativemotiveisnegativelyrelatedtothelevelofinterestrate.Sothedemandforrealmoneybalancesisafunctionofinterestrateand easfollowFriedman’sModerntyTheoryofMoney弗里德曼的现代货币数量Friedmanstatedthatthedemandformoneyshouldbeafunctionoftheresourcesavailabletoindividuals(theirwealth)andtheexpectedreturnsonotherassetsrelativetotheexpectedreturnonmoney.Fromthisreasoning,Friedmanexpressedhisformulationofthedemandformoneyasfollows:UnlikeKeynes’stheory,whichindicatesthatinterestratesareanimportantdeterminantofthedemandformoney,Friedman'stheorysuggeststhatchangesininterestratesshouldhavelittleeffectonthedemandformoney.CrowdingOutEffectofFiscal财政政策的挤出效Expansionaryfiscalwillcrowdoutinvestmentandnetexports,whichdecreasebecauseoftheriseintheinterestrate.Thissituationiscalledcrowdingout(挤出效应).Whenthedemandformoneyisunaffectedbytheinterestrate,theLMcurveisvertical.Anexpansionaryfiscaldoesnotleadtoariseinoutputbutasharpininterestrate,whichmeanstheincreasedernmentspendinghavecompleycrowedoutinvestmentandnetexports.Thissituationiscalledcompletecrowdingout(完全TransmissionMechanismsofMonetary货币政策传导机(1)TraditionalInterest-RateChannel利率机Anexpansionarymonetaryleadstoafallinrealinterestrates,whichinturnlowersthecostofcausingariseininvestmentspendingtherebyleadingtoanincreaseinaggregatedemandandariseinoutput.(2)ExchangeRateChannel汇率机制Anexpansionarymonetaryleadstoafallinrealinterestrates,whichinturnthecurrencydepreciates,causingariseinnetexports,therebyleadingtoanincreaseinaggregatedemandandariseinoutput.Tobin’sqTheoryq理Tobindefinesqasthemarketvalueoffirmsdividedbytherecementcostofcapital.Ifqishigh,themarketpriceoffirmsishighrelativetotherecementcostofcapital,andnewntandequipmentcapitalischeaprelativetothemarketvalueoffirms.Investmentspendingwillrise,becausefirmscanbuyalotofnewinvestmentgoodswithonlyasmallissueofstock.Conversely,whenqislow,firmswillnotpurchasenewinvestmentgoodsbecausethemarketvalueoffirmsislowrelativetothecostofcapital.Investmentspending,thepurchaseofnewinvestmentgoods,willthenbeverylowWealthEffects效BankLendingChannel银BalanceSheetChannel资产负债表Cost-PushInflationandDemand-PullInflation成本推动通货膨胀与需求拉动通货膨Cost-pushinflationoccursbecauseofnegativesupplyshocksorapushbyworkerstogethigherwages.Persistentcost-pushinflationisamonetaryphenomenonbecauseitcannotoccurwithoutthemonetarypursuingan modatingofahigherrateofmoneygrowth.Demand-pullinflationresultswhenmakerspursuepoliciesthatshifttheaggregatedemandcurvetotheright.Ifmakerssetatargetforunemploymentthatistoolowbecauseitislessthanthenaturalrateofunemployment,thiscansetthestageforahigherrateofmoneygrowthandaresultingpersistentinflation.RicardianEquivalence图等Ricardianequivalencestatesthatwhentheernmentrunsdeficitsandissuesbonds,thepublicrecognizesthatitwillbesubjecttohighertaxesinthefuturetopayoffthesebonds.Thepublicthensavesmoreinanticipationofthesefuturetaxes,withthenetresultthatthepublicdemandforbondsincreasestomatchtheincreasedsupply.Itimpliesthatexpansionaryfiscalwhichcausesbudgetdeficitsandbondsissuancewillhavenoeffectontheaggregatedemandandtheoutput.LucasCritique卢卡Accordingtotheprincipleofrationalexpectationstheory,thewayinwhichexpectationsareformedchangeswhenthebehaviorofforecastedvariableschanges.Sowhenchanges,therelationshipbetweenexpectationsandpastinformationwillchange,andbecauseexpectationsaffecteconomicbehavior,therelationshipsintheeconometricmodelwillchange.Theeconometricmodel,whichhasbeenestimatedwithpastdata,isthennolongerthecorrectmodelforevaluatingtheresponsetothischangeandmayconsequentlyprovehighlymisleading.ThispropositioniscalledLucascritique.TheLucascritiquepointsoutnotonlythoseconventionaleconometricmodelscannotbeusedforevaluation,butalsothatthepublic'sexpectationsaboutawillinfluencetheresponsetothat.What’sthedifferencebetweenMicroeconomicsandMacroeconomics?