电子设备-电子复苏系列2：海外模拟公司22Q4季报总结：汽车维持高景气需求看好23H2复苏

体发现价值发现价值海外模拟公司22Q4季报总结：汽车维持高景气需求，看好23H2复苏03661SFCCE.no:BFS4788003658wanglianggfcomcn003660ngzhenggfcomcn03800gfcomcn请注意，许兴军,耿正,栾玉民并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。核心观点：比-10%，汽车业务环比中个位数增长，消费电子业务环比-15%左右，通信业务环比约-20%，政企系统业务环有下降；工业市场渠道端正在调整库存；计算市场需求仍然较为疲软；手机市场销售企稳，渠道库存回调至正QTIQ7~45.3究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值司估值和财务分析表称码报告日期级合理价值(元/股)2022E2023E2022E2023E2022E2023E2022E2023E300661.SZ/08/25344.5733.1433.0626.6325.52688052.SH58/12/274.5861.7065.329.8688381.SH.05/12/021.2234.47.7529.791华风光688439.SH/08/18--62.1538.85按照最新收盘价计算究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值 发现价值免责声明发现价值表索引 究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值Q模拟公司股价与需求拟IC平台公司(代表厂商TI、ADI)以及成长型模拟IC公司(代表厂商MPS、矽力杰)。其中模拟IC龙头公司通常成立时间较早 型模拟IC公司营收通常跟随行业需求波动。成长性模拟公司营收增速通常明显高于行业需求增长，例如MPS2006-2022年间营收CAGR为19.4%，高于模拟IC市场规模期间的年均复合增速5.7%。TI收增速与模拟IC行业增速%30%20%10% 全球模拟IC市场规模YoYTI营收YoYMPS营收增速与模拟IC行业增速50%40%30%20%10% 12121212121212122015/12全球模拟IC市场规模YoY1212121212122022/12MPS营收YoYADI在近期创下新高。究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值00000050TI季度营业收入(亿美元·右轴)TI总市值(亿美元·左轴)0ADI季度营业收入(亿美元·右轴)ADI总市值(亿美元·左轴)00210MPS季度营业收入(亿美元·右轴)MPS总市值(亿美元·左轴)矽力杰季度营业收入(亿美元·右轴)矽力杰总市值(亿美元·左轴)期与长期库存可以更好地支持客户；因此公司会放心持有更高水平的库存，在当前MPS、订单模式的究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值I50008642000TI库存(亿美元·左轴)TIDOI(天·右轴).5.00ADI库存(亿美元·左轴)ADIDOI(天·右轴)00MPS库存(亿美元·左轴)MPSDOI(天·右轴)矽力杰库存(亿美元·左轴)矽力杰DOI(天·右轴)财报季营收指引中值环比下降16%。究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值表1：海外模拟厂商营收指引及需求描述公司QEADIQEQEYQE究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值Q财报总结FYQEarningsCall、汽车营收占比合计为65%，同比提高t28亿美元(环比增加3.5亿美元)，存货周转天数157天(环比增加24天)。表2：TI关键性季度财务数据TXN.OEnded单位：百万美元利润表2Q20Q04Q202Q21Q14Q212Q22Q24Q22收入3,3293,2393,8174,0764,2894,5804,6434,8324,9055,2125,2414,670YoY-7%2%9%41%2%3%QoQ3%%4%%毛利2,0882,0822,4532,6462,7973,0773,1523,3503,4423,6253,6173,087YoY8%6%34%48%8%7%3%8%QoQ%%%毛利率%%%%%%%%%%运营利润1,2941,3021,6601,8601,9862,2612,3522,5572,6292,7892,7552,224YoY43%3%42%37%32%3%QoQ7%4%%%运营利润率39%40%43%46%46%49%1%3%4%4%3%48%归母净利润1,1681,3731,3471,6881,7451,9241,9382,1292,1922,2812,2841,953YoY3%5%8%49%40%44%6%6%8%QoQ%2%5%%%4%净利率35%42%35%41%41%42%42%44%45%44%44%42%资产负债表总资产17,28317,44518,20719,35119,63920,60323,27324,67625,27624,72326,05727,207YoY8%8%9%0%QoQ4%4%%%2%%4%净资产7,7347,6448,3259,18710,16611,15312,15113,33314,01714,09214,50714,577YoY9%-7%%31%46%46%45%38%6%%QoQ%%%%资产负债率5%6%4%3%48%46%48%46%45%43%44%46%存货2,0032,1362,0721,9551,8901,8561,8631,9102,0602,1992,4042,757YoY6%%%2%6%2%%9%44%QoQ3%6%3%2%%%现金流量表经营性净现金流511,7201,4432,1251,8502,1212,4282,3572,1441,7682,7662,042YoY23%4%28%1%3%%QoQ51%47%3%9%6%26%资本开支2123083864861,2824439790967YoY36%54%2%30%1%233%05%44%5%%25%QoQ45%45%5%6%65%35%32%2%究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值表3：TI营业收入拆分TXN.Od单位：百万美元按下游拆分分产品AnalogYoY%%营收占比EmbeddedProcessingYoY%%%营收占比%%%%%%%OtherSemiductorsYoY%营收占比%分业务Industrial29.20043.95030.00441.20YoY1%营收占比%1%0%PersonalElectronics515.853.050.0028.094.47402.56.00YoY营收占比%%%%%%%%Automotive06.6042.596.800.4392.202.24005.60YoY%%营收占比%%%%%CommunicationsEquipme17.65YoY%营收占比EnterpriseSystems.30.70.08.66YoY%%营收占比Education/Other40.80448.83473.52431.4989.226.88400.56YoY%% 营收占比 %%%%%%.TI2023CapitalManagementCall以后资本支出占比为超过10%)究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值CapitalManagementCallCapEx300mm晶圆厂优势主要体现在成本端：芯片制造成本降低40%，毛利率相较使用mm提高8pct至68%。究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值mmdesTIm据指引2022~2030营收CAGR约为11%(2022年给出2030年营收指引340亿美元)。受益于公司重点布局的工业/汽车市场结构性快速增长及地缘政治背景下客户对公司稳定供应能力的认可，公司对实现营收指引比较有信心，且认为增速指引没有明mdesTI究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值分部情况：2022年工业/汽车/消费电子/通信设备/政企系统营收占比分别为图14：TI分下游应用领域营收及研发支出计划desTI(二)ADI：汽车、工业市场需求强劲S降5%，环比下降14%，受市场趋势疲软和季节性因素影响。需求企稳的信号，中国市场需求正在向更积极的方向发展。细分市场方面，汽车业务的需求最为强劲，通信和消费市场仍然疲软。公司通过增加自有产能、与代工厂预计订单出货比低于1(weexpectoutbook-to-billwillremainbelowparity.)公司预计接下来几个季度积压订单会恢复到正常水准。增长，通信和消费市场环比下降。究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值表4：ADI关键性季度财务数据ADI.O1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23Ended单位：百万美元2020/2/12020/5/22020/8/12020/10/312021/1/302021/5/12021/7/312021/10/302022/1/292022/4/302022/7/302022/10/292023/1/28利润表收入1,3041,3171,4561,5261,5581,6611,7592,3402,6842,9723,1103,2483,250YoY-2%%20%26%21%53%%%%39%21%QoQ5%2%%33%5%4%0%毛利8488479731,0231,0451,1371,2211,1221,4021,9452,0432,1432,124YoY-3%9%23%34%26%34%%67%91%52%QoQ0%5%2%9%-8%25%39%5%5%毛利率65%64%67%67%67%68%69%48%52%65%66%66%65%运营利润285345451470464520601924249651,0321,1321,131YoY-40%-28%63%51%33%-59%-9%86%%491%6%QoQ-29%21%31%4%-68%1%7%0%运营利润率22%26%31%31%30%31%34%8%32%33%35%35%归母净利润20426836338738942350376280783749936961YoY-42%-27%0%39%91%58%39%-80%-28%85%49%137%243%QoQ-27%31%35%9%-85%270%0%-4%25%3%净利率20%25%25%25%25%29%3%26%24%29%30%资产负债表总资产21,37721,35121,60021,46921,44021,58821,64152,32251,21650,80150,34650,30250,235YoY-2%-2%0%0%0%0%4%9%5%3%-4%-2%QoQ0%0%0%0%2%-2%0%0%净资产11,69011,59111,77811,99812,08812,16712,26437,99337,42737,10036,63936,46536,531YoY0%2%3%5%4%217%210%205%9%-4%-2%QoQ0%2%2%210%0%0%资产负债率45%46%45%44%44%44%43%27%27%27%27%28%27%存货5895906136086196416581,2019731,0751,2031,4001,523YoY-3%-4%0%5%9%97%57%68%83%57%QoQ-4%0%4%2%4%3%83%9%现金流量表经营性净现金流3504295576734287366309418561,2221,2481,1491,406YoY-6%-36%2%22%%40%0%66%98%22%64%QoQ-47%23%30%21%-36%%49%-9%43%2%-8%22%资本开支556021306759863111196530576YoY-40%-20%-64%-41%23%-2%315%338%65%1%91%3%59%QoQ65%44%5%12%46%51%15%39%85%42%表5：ADI营业收入拆分Q20Q4Q20Q21Q4Q21Q22Q4Q22ded单位：百万美元按下游拆分分业务Industrial874.00977.00992.001041.001183.001243.001241.001348.001504.001555.001661.521690.20YoY35%27%25%29%27%25%34%25%QoQ%%%%%3%%营收占比47%47%46%48%1%0%49%0%1%0%1%2%Communications387.00488.00406.00357.00362.00388.00374.00413.00474.00492.00501.98487.99YoY-6%-20%-8%31%27%34%QoQ26%-4%4%%-3%营收占比21%24%Automotive310.00301.00404.00438.00463.00516.00507.00551.00633.00660.00672.33718.17YoY49%71%25%26%37%28%33%30%QoQ-3%34%%-2%%4%%营收占比20%20%21%20%21%21%21%21%22%Consumer272.00297.00347.00342.00313.00360.00412.00372.00361.00403.00411.89353.28YoY21%9%0%-5%QoQ%-8%-3%%营收占比YoY5G和卫星通信究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值业绩指引：预计23Q1实现营收4.4~4.6亿美元，中值计算QoQ-2%；实现毛利率58.0%，中值计算QoQ-0.6pct。H低端市场采取了GPUAI，会是公司arger售价可超过100美元。公司几个季度前招聘了ADDA团队，产品在X光设备客户端获得较好评价，首款应用于工业、医疗的ADDA产品2022年商用，2023年实现营收增究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值表6：MPS关键性季度财务数据MPWRMPWR.O1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22Ended单位：百万美元2020/3/312020/6/302020/9/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/9/302021/12/312022/3/312022/6/302022/9/302022/12/31利润表收入259233254293324337378461495460YoY23%4%40%3%8%25%44%48%7%3%37%QoQ39%%4%22%-7%毛利91219271291268YoY23%4%40%4%%30%0%5%%6%38%QoQ39%%4%24%-8%毛利率5%5%5%5%5%6%8%8%8%9%9%8%运营利润33302424821898YoY2%46%31%43%30%8%1%QoQ%-33%30%29%-3%25%47%%-9%运营利润率20%24%21%25%23%26%31%31%30%归母净利润3630643455930YoY37%46%8%32%27%3%24%%1%%QoQ4%-23%21%25%%44%%-4%净利率22%21%21%22%21%25%25%26%资产负债资产负债表总资产1,0081,0711,1611,2081,3081,3731,4961,5861,7141,7861,9312,059YoY23%27%26%30%28%29%31%31%30%29%30%QoQ%%4%%%%%4%%净资产8138499159671,0221,0871,1631,2441,3261,4231,5311,669YoY20%21%25%25%26%28%27%29%30%31%32%34%QoQ%4%%%%资产负债率21%21%20%22%21%22%22%23%20%21%存货208259311360397447YoY-8%%23%33%40%%1%QoQ3%-3%25%20%现现金流量表经营性净现金流51597780779711828107105-1852YoYQoQ资本开支YoY QoQ 32%-83%35%-24%47%30%2035%31%3%32%-41%0%-3%1%%26%392%22%-51%-65%-76%3%-9%39%281%2742%3%-2%-70%-56%8-58%-31%%-386%-26%表7：MPS营业收入拆分Q0QQ20Q1QQ21Q2QQ22Ended单位：百万美元按下游拆分分业务Computing&Storage33.8445.4051.8649.1951.3157.8068.8677.9796.59122.29112.88120.80YoY52%27%33%59%88%%64%55%QoQ34%5%4%4%7%8%营收占比0%7%31%30%31%35%42%47%8%%EnterpriseData18.1118.6923.4412.6416.1829.9329.7440.4942.5165.2075.2768.40YoY-11%60%27%220%%%%69%QoQ%5%-46%8%5%36%%3%9%营收占比%4%6%39%45%41%Automotive23.3117.7828.5139.3644.8748.7054.4256.3554.5561.0287.0797.30YoY92%%91%43%22%25%60%73%QoQ-24%%38%%4%3%43%营收占比4%7%9%33%34%33%37%3%9%Industrial25.2426.5930.6637.1239.7943.3252.1949.4948.5455.8758.7156.00YoY58%63%70%33%22%29%QoQ%1%%0%5%2%%5%营收占比2%4%6%31%30%9%34%35%34%Communications27.8730.1054.7129.6636.0737.4644.6945.8855.5759.3072.3064.20YoY29%24%-18%55%54%58%62%40%QoQ%2%-46%2%4%%1%2%营收占比33%2%3%7%8%34%36%44%39%Consumer37.4047.6670.2565.0866.2476.1173.6366.3379.9697.3389.1853.00YoY77%60%5%2%21%28%21%-20%QoQ7%47%-7%%3%1%2%8%-41%营收占比3%9%42%39%40%46%44%40%48%9%4%32%分产品DCtoDCConverters156.88176.11247.56219.93241.43278.81307.37319.73358.85442.25462.98432.51YoY55%40%54%58%24%45%49%59%51%35%QoQ%41%4%3%%-7%营收占比5%216%267%279%261%LightingControlDevices8.9010.1011.8613.1113.0314.5116.1516.7818.8718.7532.4427.50YoY3%30%42%46%44%36%28%45%29%%64%QoQ3%4%营收占比%%%%0%究|半导体发现价值免责声明发现价值Qpct降的影响。智能为主的通讯类产品环比上升10%~15%。计算市场需求仍然较为疲软；手机市场销售企稳，渠道库存回调至正常水平，预计表8：POWI关键性季度财务数据Ended单位：百万美元利润表Q20Q4Q20Q21Q4Q21Q22Q4Q22收入YoY3%4%2%%46%%%28%QoQ%%4%4%%%22%毛利6404412327YoY4%4%%%49%%6%28%QoQ21%%4%%-27%毛利率%%49%49%49%%%%%%%%运营利润2840