《公司价值管理（双语）》-课程教学大纲

PAGEPAGE30《公司价值管理（双语）》课程教学大纲一、课程基本信息课程代码：18030193课程名称：公司价值管理（双语）英文名称：MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies课程类别：专业课学时：48学分：3适用对象：资产评估专业考核方式：考查先修课程：资产评估概论、财务管理、中级财务会计学、税法Ⅰ二、课程简介Thiscoursedealswiththevaluationandmanagementoftheleveredfirm.Asignificantpartofthecoursewillbedevotedtolearningthetechniqueofdiscountedcashflowvaluationofacompanywhichisfinancedwithavarietyoffinancialinstruments,primarilycommonstocksandlongtermdebt.Studentswilllearnaboutthetechniquesofforecastingfuturecashflowsbasedonfundamentalanalysis,macro-economicanalysis,andindustrycharacteristics.Thecoursewillalsoexaminethevaluationofcorporateleases,andoperatingtax.ThetechniqueofEconomicValueAdded(EVA)willbeexamined.三、课程性质与教学目的课程性质：资产评估专业本科生的专业选修课程，采用中英双语教学方式。教学目的：Thepurposeofthiscourseistoprovideanoverviewofthecriticalmethodsandtoolsusedtoestimatethefundamentalvalueofanenterprise.Theprimarylearningobjectivesforthisclassareto(1)understandthefundamentaldriversofvalueandmanagerialimplication.(2)gainexposuretodifferenttypesofvaluationtechniquesandhowtheyareusedbyfinancialmanagers.Therewillbeafocusonequityvaluation,andtoalesserextent,touchonconceptsrelevanttootherassetclasses.(3)understandthecapitalstructuredecisionsrelatedtoequityvaluationandstrategicobjectivesoftheleveredcompany.专业课程思政教育融入是培养中国特色社会主义事业合格建设者和可靠接班人，落实立德树人根本任务的重要渠道，是进行社会主义核心价值观教育、帮助大学生树立正确世界观人生观价值观的重要方式。在公司价值管理课程思政教学实践中，充分考虑本科生的知识结构、理论水平和应用能力要求，按照教育部颁布的《高等学校课程思政建设指导纲要》，从诚信品质、职业道德、责任意识、敬业精神、社会责任等方面，将公司价值管理理论知识与思想政治教育相结合，着重培育学生经世济民、诚信服务、德法兼修的职业素养。在授课方式上，坚持与时俱进，开拓视野，激发学生的学习兴趣，培养多元能力，树立诚信意识，并能够正确处理利益诱惑与职业道德之间的冲突，守住道德底线，做德才兼备的优秀人才。四、教学内容及要求Chapter2FundamentalPrinciplesofValueCreation（一）目的与要求Understandthatvalueisdrivenbyexpectedcashflowsdiscountedatacostofcapital.Cashflow,inturn,isdrivenbyexpectedreturnsoninvestedcapitalandrevenuegrowth.CompaniescreatevalueonlywhenROICexceedstheircostofcapital.Further,higher-ROICcompaniesshouldtypicallyprioritizegrowthoverfurtherimprovingROIC,asgrowthisamorepowerfulvaluedriverforthem.Incontrast,lower-ROICcompaniesshouldprioritizeimprovingROIC,asitisastrongervaluedriver.通过公司价值创造基本原理的讲解，融入“法治、诚信”社会主义核心价值观，帮助学生树立诚信评估意识。（二）教学内容Section1THERELATIONSHIPOFGROWTH,ROIC,ANDCASHFLOW1.主要内容TaleofTwoCompanies:SameEarnings,DifferentCashFlowsValueInc.:DCFValuationValue,Inc.:LowerInitialCashFlowatHigherGrowthRateTranslatingGrowthandROICintoValue2.基本概念和知识点Growth=ROIC×InvestmentRateCashFlow=Earnings×(1−InvestmentRate)BalancingROICAndGrowthToCreateValueReal-WorldExamples3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howdoesreturnoninvestedcapital(ROIC)affectacompany’scashflow?ExplaintherelationshipbetweenROIC,growth,andcashflow.Underwhatcircumstancesdoesgrowthdestroyvalue?Section2MANAGERIALIMPLICATIONS1.主要内容IncreasingValue:ImpactofHigherGrowthandROICValueCreationbyTypeofGrowthImpactofGrowthandROIConHigh-andLow-ROICCompanies2.基本概念和知识点ROICTypeofGrowthStrategicDecisionMaking3.问题与应用（能力要求）Whichtypeofbusiness,asoftwarecompanyoranelectricutility,wouldbenefitmorefromimprovingROICthanfromincreasinggrowth?Why?Section3ECONOMICPROFITCOMBINESROICANDSIZE1.主要内容EconomicProfitInvestedCapital2.基本概念和知识点EconomicProfit=InvestedCapital×(ROIC−CostofCapital)Value=StartingInvestedCapital+PVofProjectedEconomicProfit3.问题与应用（能力要求）WhatistheEconomicProfit?Section4THEMATHOFVALUECREATION1.主要内容SomeTerminologyaboutValuationInvestedCapitalKeyValueDriverFormulaCommonMultiples结合“法治、诚信”社会主义核心价值观分析核心价值驱动公式中各要素的判断理念与思路。2.基本概念和知识点NOPLATInvestedCapitalNetInvestmentFreecashflow(FCF)ROICIRWACCGrowth3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtoexplaintheKeyValueDriverFormula?（三）思考与实践1.Ifvalueisbasedondiscountedcashflows,whyshouldacompanyorinvestoranalyzegrowthandROIC?2.结合“法治”和“诚信”这两方面的社会主义核心价值观，思考如何避免“价值创造与评估”沦为“数字游戏”。（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter6ReturnonInvestedCapital（一）目的与要求Therearemanylessonstolearnaboutreturnsoninvestedcapital.First,thesereturnsaredrivenbycompetitiveadvantagesthatenablecompaniestorealizepricepremiums,costandcapitalefficiencies,orsomecombinationofthese.Second,industrystructureisanimportantbutnotanexclusivedeterminantofROIC.Certainindustriesaremorelikelytoearneitherhigh,medium,orlowreturns,butthereisstillsignificantvariationintheratesofreturnforindividualcompanieswithineachindustry.Third,andmostimportant,ifacompanyfindsaformulaorstrategythatearnsanattractiveROIC,thereisagoodchanceitcansustainthatattractivereturnovertimeandthroughchangingeconomic,industry,andcompanyconditions—especiallyinthecaseofindustriesthatenjoyrelativelylongproductlifecycles.Unfortunately,theconverseisalsotrue:ifacompanyearnsalowROIC,thatislikelytopersistaswell.（二）教学内容Section1WHATDRIVESROIC1.主要内容Understandhowstrategy,competitiveadvantage,andreturnoninvestedcapitalarelinked.TheimportanceofindustrystructuretoROICCompetitivebehavior2.基本概念和知识点RepresentationofROICStructure-conduct-performance(SCP)frameworkIndustrystructureCompetitiveStrategybyMichaelPorterCompanyProfitability:IndustryMattersSection2COMPETITIVEADVANTAGE1.主要内容SourcesofCompetitiveAdvantagePricePremiumAdvantagesCostandCapitalEfficiencyAdvantages2.基本概念和知识点InnovativeproductsQualityBrandCustomerlock-inRationalpricedisciplineInnovativebusinessmethodUniqueresourcesEconomiesofscaleScalableproductorprocess3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtoanalyzetheCompetitiveAdvantageofacompany?Section3SUSTAINABILITYOFRETURNONINVESTEDCAPITAL1.主要内容LengthofProductLifeCyclePersistenceofCompetitiveAdvantagePotentialforProductRenewal2.基本概念和知识点ProductLifeCycleCompetitiveAdvantageProductRenewal3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtoanalyzethesustainabilityofROIC?Section4ANEMPIRICALANALYSISOFRETURNSONINVESTEDCAPITAL1.主要内容ROICTrendsROICbyIndustryStabilityofROICEffectofAcquisitionsonROIC2.基本概念和知识点ROICofU.S.-BasedNonfinancialCompanies,1963–2013DistributionofROICVariationinROICwithinIndustries,1995–2013PersistenceofIndustryROICsROICDecayAnalysis:NonfinancialCompaniesROICTransitionProbabilityROICwithandwithoutGoodwill,1963–20133.问题与应用（能力要求）WhydocompaniesoperatingwithinthepharmaceuticalandbiotechnologyindustriestypicallysustainhigherROICsthanfirmsinthetechnology,hardware,andequipmentindustries?DiscusspotentialexplanationsforthewideningofthedistributionofROICsacrossallcompaniesoverrecentdecades.（三）思考与实践1.Fromavalue-creationperspective,isitmoreimportantforacompanytoknowwheretocompeteorhowtocompete?Thatis,isitmoreimportanttoplayintherightmarketsortobethebestplayerinyourcurrentmarkets?2.Identifyanddiscussrealexamplesofcompanieswithacompetitiveadvantagebasedoncustomerlock-inasopposedtoproductinnovation.WhichdoyouexpecttosustainahighROICforalongertime?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter7Growth（一）目的与要求Tomaximizevaluefortheirshareholders,companiesshouldunderstandwhatdrivesgrowthandwhatmakesitvalue-creating.Long-termrevenuegrowthforlargecompaniesislargelydrivenbythegrowthofthemarketsinwhichtheyoperate.Althoughgainsinmarketsharecontributetorevenuesintheshortterm,thesearefarlessimportantforlong-termgrowth.Revenuegrowthisnotallthatmattersforcreatingvalue;thevaluecreatedperdollarofadditionalrevenuesisthecrucialpoint.Sustaininghighgrowthisnolessachallengethaninitiatingit.（二）教学内容Section1DRIVERSOFREVENUEGROWTH1.主要内容DisaggregaterevenuegrowthintoitsthreemaincomponentsVariationinRevenueGrowthbyIndustryUnderstandmarketsinthefine-grainedwayandthedifferencesincompanies’revenuegrowth2.基本概念和知识点PortfoliomomentumMarketshareperformanceMergersandacquisitionsAnalyzemarketgrowthatthelevelofindividualproductandgeographicalsegments3.问题与应用（能力要求）Discussthethreegenericsourcesofacompany’sgrowth,theirrelativeimportanceforitsgrowth,andwhatthismeansforacompany’sstrategy.Section2GROWTHANDVALUECREATION1.主要内容ValueofMajorTypesofGrowthandRationaleRelationshipbetweengrowthandvaluecreation2.基本概念和知识点TypesofGrowthValueCreation3.问题与应用（能力要求）Whycouldgrowththroughaseriesofbolt-onacquisitionscreatemorevaluethangrowththroughasinglelargeacquisition?Identifyanddiscussanexamplewheregrowthinmarketsharethroughapricewarcreatedlong-termvalueforacompany.Section3WHYSUSTAININGGROWTHISHARD1.主要内容Sustaininggrowthisdifficultbecausemostproductmarketshavenaturallifecycles.TheChallengeofSustainingHighGrowth2.基本概念和知识点VariationinGrowthoverProductLifeCycleWal-MartandeBay:GrowthTrajectories3.问题与应用（能力要求）Whydofast-growingcompaniestypicallyfailtosustaintheirhighgrowthrates?Section4EMPIRICALANALYSISOFCORPORATEGROWTH1.主要内容GrowthTrendsGrowthacrossIndustriesSustainingGrowth2.基本概念和知识点Long-TermRevenueGrowthforNonfinancialCompanies,1965–2013DistributionofGrowthRatesVolatileGrowthbyIndustryRevenueGrowthDecayAnalysisRevenueGrowthTransitionProbability3.问题与应用（能力要求）WhydocompanygrowthratestypicallyconvergemuchmorequicklytowardtheaveragerateacrossallcompaniesthantheirratesofROIC,giventhatbothultimatelydependontheunderlyingproductlifecycles?DiscusswhytherankingofindustriesbygrowthvariesmoreovertimethantheirrankingbyROIC.（三）思考与实践1.Forwhichtypeofcompanyisadditionalgrowthlikelytocreatemorevalue:ahigh-ROICcompanyinamaturemarketoralow-ROICcompanyinafast-growingmarket?Givereasonsforyouranswer.2.Ifgrowthfromgainingmarketsharethroughproductpromotionandpricingrarelycreatesmuchvalue,whydomostconsumergoodscompaniesputsomucheffortintoit?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter8FrameworksforValuation（一）目的与要求UnderstandthemostcommonDCFvaluationmodels,withparticularfocusontheenterpriseDCFmodelandtheeconomic-profitmodel.UnderstandsomespecificmodelssuchasAPVmodel,Capitalcashflowmodel,Equitycashflowmodel.Eachmodelhasitsownrationale,andeachhasanimportantplaceincorporatevaluation.（二）教学内容Section1ENTERPRISEDISCOUNTEDCASHFLOWMODEL1.主要内容Four-partprocessofusingenterpriseDCFmodelValuingOperationsIdentifyingandValuingNonoperatingAssetsIdentifyingandValuingDebtandOtherNonequityClaimsValuingEquity2.基本概念和知识点EnterpriseValuationofaSingle-BusinessCompanyEnterpriseValuationofaMulti-businessCompanyEnterpriseDCFValuationHistoricalROICAnalysisFreeCashFlowCalculationandProjectionContinuingValueWACCNonoperatingAssetsNonequityClaimsEquity3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtouseEnterpriseDCFmodeltoestimateequityvalue?Section2ECONOMIC-PROFIT-BASEDVALUATIONMODELS1.主要内容EconomicProfitValuationUsingEconomicProfit2.基本概念和知识点EconomicProfit=InvestedCapital×(ROIC−WACC)EconomicProfit=NOPLAT−(InvestedCapital×WACC)Economic-Profit-BasedValuationModelsThebenefitsofeconomicprofit3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtouseeconomic-profit-basedvaluationmodeltoestimateenterprisevalue?Section3ADJUSTEDPRESENTVALUEMODEL1.主要内容ValueofoperationsAdjustedPresentValueCapitalstructureeffectsValuationUsingAdjustedPresentValue2.基本概念和知识点All-equityfinancedTaxshieldsFrancoModiglianiandMertonMillerTheoryUnleveredCostofEquityDebt-to-valueratio3.问题与应用（能力要求）WhydoweneedtouseAPVmodel?Section4CAPITALCASHFLOWMODEL1.主要内容ValuationUsingCapitalcashflow2.基本概念和知识点Capitalcashflow3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtovalueacompanybycapitalcashflowmodel?Section5CASH-FLOW-TO-EQUITYVALUATIONMODEL1.主要内容ValuationUsingCFE2.基本概念和知识点CashflowstoequityShortcomingsoftheequitycashflowmodel3.问题与应用（能力要求）What’stheappropriatesituationforusingcash-flow-to-equityvaluationmodel?Section6OTHERAPPROACHESTODISCOUNTEDCASHFLOW1.主要内容NominalratherthanrealmeasuresPretaxoraftertaxcashflows2.基本概念和知识点NominalcostofcapitalExpectedinflationPretaxhurdlerateSection7ALTERNATIVESTODISCOUNTEDCASHFLOW1.主要内容IntroductiontoMultiplesIntroductiontoRealOptions2.基本概念和知识点MultiplesReplicatingportfolioOptions-basedmodels（三）思考与实践1.Howtouseeachmodeltovaluethecompany?Arethevaluationresultsidentical?Why?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter9ReorganizingtheFinancialStatements（一）目的与要求Topreparethefinancialstatementsforanalyzingeconomicperformance,youneedtoreorganizetheitemsonthebalancesheet,incomestatement,andstatementofcashflowsintothreecategories:operatingitems,nonoperatingitems,andsourcesoffinancing.Thisoftenrequiressearchingthroughthenotestoseparateaccountsthataggregateoperatingandnonoperatingitems.（二）教学内容Section1REORGANIZINGTHEACCOUNTINGSTATEMENTS:KEYCONCEPTS1.主要内容InvestedCapital:KeyConceptsNetOperatingProfitLessAdjustedTaxes:KeyConceptsFreeCashFlow:KeyConcepts2.基本概念和知识点OperatingAssets−OperatingLiabilities=InvestedCapital=Debt+EquityInvestedCapital+NonoperatingAssets=TotalFundsInvested=DebtandItsEquivalents+EquityandItsEquivalentsAnExampleofInvestedCapitalAnExampleofNOPLATFCF=NOPLAT+NoncashOperatingExpenses−InvestmentsinInvestedCapitalAnExampleofFreeCashFlow3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtocalculateIC,NOPLATandFCFbyreorganizingthefinancialstatements?Section2REORGANIZINGTHEACCOUNTINGSTATEMENTS:INPRACTICE1.主要内容InvestedCapital:InPracticeComputingTotalFundsInvestedReconcilingTotalFundsInvestedCalculatingNOPLATReconciliationtoNetIncomeFreeCashFlow:InPracticeCashFlowAvailabletoInvestorsReconcilingCashFlowAvailabletoInvestors2.基本概念和知识点OperatingworkingcapitalNetproperty,plant,equipment,andothercapitalizedinvestmentsOtheroperatingassets,netliabilitiesGoodwillandacquiredintangiblesAdjustmentstoGoodwillandAcquiredIntangiblesExcesscashandmarketablesecuritiesExcesscash,thatis,cashabovetheamountrequiredforday-to-dayoperationsFinancialsubsidiariesNonconsolidatedsubsidiariesandequityinvestmentsOverfundedpensionassetsTaxlosscarryforwardsOthernonoperatingassetsSourcesofFinancingDebtDebtequivalentssuchasretirementliabilitiesandrestructuringreservesHybridsecuritiesNoncontrollinginterestEquityEquityequivalentssuchasdeferredtaxes(Deferred-TaxAssetsandLiabilities)Netoperatingprofit(NOPorEBITA)AdjustmentstoEBITAOperatingtaxesGrosscashflowInvestmentsininvestedcapitalNonoperatingcashflowsInterestexpenses3.问题与应用（能力要求）Invested-CapitalCalculationNOPLATCalculationFreeCashFlowCalculationSection3ADVANCEDISSUES1.主要内容OperatingLeasesPensionsandOtherPostretirementBenefitsCapitalizedResearchandDevelopmentNonoperatingChargesandRestructuringReservesOtherAdjustmentsUsingJudgmentwithAdjustments2.基本概念和知识点RentalexpenseImpactofCapitalizingOperatingLeasesonROICPensionIncomeAdjustmentandPension-RelatedCashFlowR&DexpenseOngoingoperatingprovisionsLong-termoperatingprovisionsNonoperatingprovisionsIncome-smoothingprovisions3.问题与应用（能力要求）What’sthegoaloffinancialanalysisandtheadjustments?（三）思考与实践1.Whydoescomputingtheoperatingtaxraterequirejudgment?2.Manycompaniesholdsignificantamountsofexcesscash.DoesincludingexcesscashaspartofinvestedcapitaldistorttheROICupwardordownward?Why?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter10AnalyzingPerformance（一）目的与要求Understandingacompany’spastisessentialtoforecastingitsfuture,soathoroughanalysisofhistoricalperformanceisacriticalcomponentofvaluation.StartbyanalyzingROIC,bothwithandwithoutgoodwill.Next,examinethedriversofrevenuegrowth.Finally,assessthecompany’sfinancialhealthtodeterminewhetherithasthefinancialresourcestoconductbusinessandmakeinvestmentsforgrowth.（二）教学内容Section1ANALYZINGRETURNSONINVESTEDCAPITAL1.主要内容AnalyzingROICwithandwithoutGoodwillandAcquiredIntangiblesDecomposingROICtoDevelopanIntegratedPerspectiveofCompanyEconomics2.基本概念和知识点ROICwithGoodwillandAcquiredIntangiblesROICwithoutGoodwillandAcquiredIntangiblesROIC=(1−OperatingCashTaxRate)×EBITA/Revenues×Revenues/InvestedCapitalROICTreeLineitemanalysisOperatinganalysisFinancialandOperatingStatisticsAnalyzingperformanceusingoperatingdrivers3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtoanalyzeROIC?Section2ANALYZINGREVENUEGROWTH1.主要内容RevenueGrowthAnalysisCurrencyEffectsadjustmentEffectofAcquisitionsonRevenueGrowthAccountingChangesandIrregularitiesDecomposingRevenueGrowthtoDevelopanIntegratedPerspectiveofCompanyEconomics2.基本概念和知识点OrganicrevenuegrowthTemporaryrevenueCurrencyexchangerateMergersandAcquisitionsConsolidatedrevenuesAccountingStandardsManagementdiscussionandanalysisOrganicRevenueGrowthAnalysiswithOperatingStatistics3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtoanalyzerevenuegrowth?Section3CREDITHEALTHANDCAPITALSTRUCTURE1.主要内容Toolsforevaluatingacompany’scapitalstructure.MeasuringLiquidity/CoverageMeasuringLeverageValuationMetricsGeneralconsiderationswhenanalyzingacompany’shistoricalfinancialperformance2.基本概念和知识点CoverageratioEBITAEBITDAEBITDARDebtmultiplesReturnonequity(ROE)PayoutRatioOperatingValuetoEBITDA3.问题与应用（能力要求）Whataretheguidelineswhenanalyzingacompany’shistoricalfinancialperformance?（三）思考与实践1.Whichinterestcoverageratio,EBITDAtointerestorEBITAtointerest,willleadtoahighernumber?WhenistheEBITDAinterestratiomoreappropriatethantheEBITAratio?WhenistheEBITAinterestcoverageratiomoreappropriatethantheEBITDAratio?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter11ForecastingPerformance（一）目的与要求Understandthemechanicsofforecasting—specifically,howtodevelopanintegratedsetoffinancialforecasts.Knowhowtobuildawell-structuredspreadsheetmodel:onethatseparatesrawinputsfromcomputations,flowsfromoneworksheettothenext,andisflexibleenoughtohandlemultiplescenarios.Thencomprehendtheprocessofforecasting.（二）教学内容Section1DETERMINETHEFORECAST’SLENGTHANDDETAIL1.主要内容DeterminetheexplicitforecastperiodSplittheexplicitforecastintotwoperiodsComponentsofagoodmodel2.基本概念和知识点CharacteristicsofSteady-stateExplicitforecastperiodAsimplifiedforecastCertaincharacteristicsofWell-builtvaluationmodels3.问题与应用（能力要求）Whatarethecharacteristicsofasteady-statecompany?Section2MECHANICSOFFORECASTING1.主要内容Breaktheforecastingprocessintosixsteps2.基本概念和知识点PrepareandAnalyzeHistoricalFinancialsBuildtheRevenueForecastThetop-downforecastThebottom-upapproachForecasttheIncomeStatementTypicalforecastdriverTypicalforecastratioProvisionforincometaxesForecasttheBalanceSheet:InvestedCapitalandNonoperatingAssetsStockmethodFlowmethodReconciletheBalanceSheetwithInvestorFundsStatementofRetainedEarnings“theplug”HowcapitalstructureaffectsvaluationCalculateROICandFCF3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtoforecastthelineitemsinthefinancialstatement?Section3ADDITIONALISSUES1.主要内容ForecastingusingnonfinancialoperatingdriversForecastingusingfixedandvariablecostsHandlingtheimpactofinflation2.基本概念和知识点NonfinancialOperatingDriversFixedversusVariableCostsInflationNominalRateRealRateConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)3.问题与应用（能力要求）Wouldinflationdistorthistoricalanalysisorfutureoperatingperformanceforecast?Why?（三）思考与实践1.ThechieffinancialofficerofPartsCohasaskedyoutoreruntheforecastofthecompany’sincomestatementandbalancesheetatagrowthrateof5percent.Ifthecompanygeneratesmorecashthanitneeds,howcanthebalancesheetbeadjustedtohandlethis?Whatalternativesexisttohandlenewcash?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter12EstimatingContinuingValue（一）目的与要求Understandtherecommendedcontinuing-valueformulasforDCFandeconomic-profitvaluation.Comprehendissuescommonlyraisedabouthowtointerpretcontinuingvalueandsuggestssomebestpracticesinestimatingcontinuing-valueparameterssuchasgrowthandreturnoninvestedcapital.Finally,knownhowtocomparetherecommendedformulaswithothercontinuing-valuetechniquesandunderstandmoreadvancedformulas（二）教学内容Section1RECOMMENDEDFORMULAFORDCFVALUATION1.主要内容EstimatecontinuingvaluebyusingthevaluedriverformulaTechnicalconsiderationswhenestimatingthecontinuing-valueparametersGrowing-FCFperpetuityformulaContinuingvalueusingeconomicprofitAdvancedFormulasForContinuingValue2.基本概念和知识点ContinuingValueImpactofContinuing-ValueAssumptionsRONICThekeyvaluedriverformulaishighlysensitivetotheformula’sparametersTheeconomic-profitformulaforcontinuingvalueDCF-basedandeconomic-profit-basedcontinuingvaluesaredirectlyrelatedbutnotidentical.Useatwo-stagevariationofthevaluedriverformulaforDCFvaluationsAtwo-stagevariationusedfortheeconomic-profitcontinuing-valueformula3.问题与应用（能力要求）HowtocalculateCVwithDCF-basedandeconomic-profit-basedmethods?Section2SUBTLETIESOFCONTINUINGVALUE1.主要内容Themisperceptionthatthelengthoftheexplicitforecastaffectsthecompany’svalue.TheconfusionbetweenRONICandROICThemisperceptionthatalargecontinuingvaluerelativetothecompany’stotalvaluemeansthatvaluecreationoccursprimarilyaftertheexplicitforecastperiod.2.基本概念和知识点ComparisonofTotal-ValueEstimatesUsingDifferentForecastHorizonsTheexplicitforecastperiodshouldbelongenoughthatthebusinesswillhavereachedasteadystatebytheendoftheperiod.HowLongIstheCompetitive-AdvantagePeriod?GradualDeclineinAverageROICAccordingtoContinuing-ValueFormulaWhenIsValueCreated?ValuationbyComponentsComparisonofContinuing-ValueApproaches3.问题与应用（能力要求）DoesLengthofForecastAffectaCompany’sValue?Section3COMMONPITFALLS1.主要内容NaiveBase-YearExtrapolationNaiveOverconservatismPurposefulOverconservatism2.基本概念和知识点CorrectandIncorrectMethodsofForecastingBaseFCFThevaluedrivermodelimplicitlycomputestherequiredinvestmentbasedonexpectationsofgrowthandROIC.AnyassumptionthatRONICisgreaterthanWACCshouldbecoupledwithaneconomicallyreasonablegrowthrate.3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtoexplainthecommonpitfalls?Section4EVALUATINGOTHERAPPROACHESTOCONTINUINGVALUE1.主要内容OtherDCFApproachestoestimateCVMultiplestoestimateCVAsset-basedvaluations2.基本概念和知识点ConvergenceformulaanditsmeaningMisinterpretationoftheconvergenceformula:Aggressive-growthformulaRatesofReturnImpliedbyAlternativeContinuing-ValueFormulasComparablesPrice-to-earningsratioMarket-to-bookratioLiquidationvalueReplacementcost3.问题与应用（能力要求）Whytheaggressive-growthformulaisamisinterpretationoftheconvergenceformula?（三）思考与实践1.SuperiorCoearnsareturnoninvestedcapitalof20percentonitsexistingstores.Givenintensecompetitionfornewstoressites,youbelievenewstoreswillonlyearntheircostofcapital.Consequently,yousetreturnonnewcapital(8percent)equaltothecostofcapital(8percent)inthecontinuingvalueformula.Acolleaguearguesthatthisistooconservative,asSuperiorCowillcreatevaluewellbeyondtheforecastperiod.Whatistheflawinyourcolleague’sargument?（四）教学方法与手段Lecture,MultimediaTeaching,andClassDiscussion.Chapter13EstimatingtheCostofCapital（一）目的与要求UnderstandtheWACCcalculation,andthedetailedsectionsonhowtoestimateitscomponents:thecostofequity,costofdebt,andtargetcapitalstructure,respectively.KnowthesituationofWACCestimationforcompanieswhosecapitalstructureiscomplex.（二）教学内容Section1WEIGHTEDAVERAGECOSTOFCAPITAL1.主要内容Simplestformofweightedaveragecostofcapital(WACC)2.基本概念和知识点Market-basedvaluesCostofequityAfter-taxcostofdebtMarginalincometaxrateDebt-to-valueratioCriteriathatthecostofcapitalmustmeet3.问题与应用（能力要求）WACCcalculationinaleveredcorporationSection2ESTIMATINGTHECOSTOFEQUITY1.主要内容EstimatingtheMarketReturnAdjustforIndustry/CompanyRisk2.基本概念和知识点Estimatethemarket’sexpectedreturnUsingthehistoricalmarketriskpremiumAnnualizedreturnsBlumeestimatorEstimatingtherisk-freerateintypicaltimesMarketimpliedcostofequityS&P500RealandNominalExpectedReturns,1962–2013Expected-returnmodelsCapitalassetpricingmodel(CAPM)Beta(β)Fama-frenchthree-factormodelMarketportfolioSmallminusbig(SMB)portfolioHighminuslow(HML)portfolioArbitragepricingtheory(APT)ApplytheCAPMinpracticeRegressionBetaUnleveredBetaEstimatesbyIndustry3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtoestimatethecostofequity?Section3ESTIMATINGTHEAFTER-TAXCOSTOFDEBT1.主要内容BondRatingsandYieldtoMaturityCostofDebtforBelow-Investment-GradeDebtIncorporatingtheInterestTaxShield2.基本概念和知识点DiscountrateYieldtomaturityisonlyaproxyforexpectedreturnIdeally,yieldtomaturityshouldbecalculatedonliquid,option-free,long-termdebt.YieldSpreadoverU.S.TreasuriesbyBondRating,December2013Below-Investment-GradeDebtProbabilityofdefaultUseadjustedpresentvaluewhenacompanyisnotinvestment-grade,ratedBBorbelowAfter-TaxCostofDebt=CostofDebt×(1−Tm)3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtoestimatetheafter-taxcostofdebt?Section4USINGTARGETWEIGHTSTODETERMINETHECOSTOFCAPITAL1.主要内容EstimatethetargetcapitalstructureEstimatethecompany’scurrentmarket-value-basedcapitalstructureReviewthecapitalstructureofcomparablecompaniesExaminemanagement’simplicitorexplicitapproachtofinancinganditsimplicationsforthetargetcapitalstructure2.基本概念和知识点MarketvalueandbookvalueTargetweightsCurrentCapitalStructureIterativevaluationCapitalStructureofPeerCompaniesMedianDebttoValuebyIndustry,2013Management’sFinancingPhilosophyComplexCapitalStructures3.问题与应用（能力要求）Howtoestimatethetargetcapitalstructurefromanexternalperspective?（三）思考与实践1.In2018,themedianprice-to-earningsratiofortheS&P500was11.1.Ifthelong-runreturnonequityis13.5percentandthelong-rungrowthinGDPisexpectedtobe6.7percen