德勤+2022年能源转型趋势报告-31正式版

AreportincollaborationwithEnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022ContentsIntroduction 4Methodology 6Deliveringnetzero 8Governance,society,people 14Markets,financeandinvestment 17Cleantechnologyandelectrification 21Theindustrytransition 25Outlookandconclusions 29References 30EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022ForewordThisdecadeisourchancetostandupandplayourpartincreatinganet-zerofuture.Whilethere’sstillmuchuncertaintyaroundhowwewillachievethis,weknowitisgoingtotakecollaborationfromleadersacrossallcountries,sectorsandsocietiestomakeithappen.Companiesfromtheenergyandindustrialssectorsareattheforefrontofthischangeandtheirinvestmentintechnologyandinnovationwillbecritical.Thissurveyofmorethan2,800executivesfromabroadrangeofindustriesshinesalightonthebiggestchallengesandopportunitiesfacingindustryleadersoverthenext12monthsastheyplanandexecutetheirdecarbonisationstrategies.Theoverallresultsindicatethere’sapositivesentimentamongexecutivesthattheirbusinesseswillachievenet-

zerooperationsby2050.Theoutlieristheindustrialssector,whereaquarterofrespondentshaddoubtsoverwhetherthisindustrywouldbeabletocutemissionstozeroby2050.Beyondgovernments,thesurveyfoundenergycompaniesareseenashavingahighorveryhighimpactontheenergytransitionbyalmost89percentofrespondents,butnearly81percentplacedemphasisonthefinancialsectortodrivetheprocess.Thequestionofhowwefundajustenergytransitionistopofmindforexecutivesandstrategiesonhowtocoupletheirenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)responsibilitieswiththiscouldleadtosomeinnovativesolutions.I’dbedelightedtospeaktoyouabouttheresultsandpotentialimpactforyourbusinessinmoredetail.JulianSmall,UKEnergy,Resources&IndustrialsLeader,Deloittejsmall@deloitte.co.ukEnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022IntroductionTheworld’senergysectorenters2022havingseenboththebestandworstofpossibletransitionoutcomes.Despiteaclearconsensusnowthatglobaltemperaturerisesmustbekeptwithin2degrees—andpreferably1.5—ofpre-industriallevels,ittookthecoronaviruspandemicandresultantrestrictionsonnationalandinternationaltravelto,albeittemporarily,curtailtheworld’scarbonemissions.Thepandemicalsohelpeddemonstratethevalueofcleanenergysources,whichprovedmoreresilienttothesupply

chainandworkforcechallengesbroughtaboutbyCOVID-19.Bytheendof2021,aneconomicbounce-backwasfiringdemandforfossilfuels,drivingupenergypricesaroundtheworldandcontributingtoawateringdownofcoalphase-outlanguageatthe26thUnitedNationsClimateChangeConference(COP26).Atthestartof2022,thescaleofcommitmenttowardstheenergytransitionisstrongerthaneverbefore,withapproximately21%oftheworld’slargest2,000companiesnowcommittedtonetzerotargetsi.Atthesametime,theclimatechallengefacingsocietycontinuestogrow.Carbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfromtheburningoffossilfuelsforenergyandcementproduction.35Billliont30Billliont25Billliont20Billliont15Billliont10Billliont5Billliont01750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2020Source:GlobalCarbonProject.Note:Landusechangeisnotincluded.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 IntroductionCO2emissionsaremeasuredonaproductionbasis,meaningtheydonotadjustforemissionsembeddedintradedgoods.Hopesthatthispositivetrendmightcontinueinto2021wereinitiallyborneoutasagrowingmovetowardstheadoptionofESGpoliciesledmanycorporationstoincreaseinvestmentsincleanenergyprocurement.Buthopesthattheworldwasonaclearpathtodecarbonisationwereshortlived.Globaldemandforcoalisexpectedtoreachrecordhighsthisyear.iiiAndtheconsequencesofcontinuingcarbonemissionsarethestarkesttheyhaveeverbeen,withlastyearseeingthehottestoceantemperaturesinhistoryivandwarmingpermafrostevenputtingArcticpipelinesatrisk.vAtthis

crucialpointintime,ReutersEventsandDeloittehaveteameduptocarryoutamajorstudyintocorporateattitudesandinitiativesrelatingtotheenergytransition.Thisreportcoversabroadrangeofindustriesandprovidesinsightsintoourabilitytoreducenetemissionstozeroandkeepglobalwarmingtowithin2degreesofpre-industriallevels,asstipulatedinthe2015ParisAgreement.Itcoversfivekeythemes:DeliveringNetZeroGovernance,Society,andPeopleMarkets,Finance,andInvestmentCleanTechnologyandElectrificationTheIndustryTransitionEnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022MethodologyThisreportisbasedonresearchcarriedoutinlate2021,drawing2,800-plusresponsesfromprofessionalswithintheReutersEventsenergytransitionandDeloittenetworkcommunities.Therespondentswerepredominantlyfrom

Europe,NorthAmericaandAsiaandweredrawnfromarangeofindustries,withafocusonenergyproduction,analystsandconsultancy.Breakdownofsurveyrespondentsbylocation.0% 10% 20% 30% 40%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 MethodologyMorethan76percentoftherespondentsheldmanagerialorhigherpostswithintheirorganisations,andmorethan55percentweredirectorlevelorhigher.Thesampleincludedmorethan450board-levelor‘C-suite’

respondents.Whereappropriate,thestudyincludesspecificanalysesoftheresponsesfromthisgroup,forcomparisonwiththosefromthesampleoverall.Breakdownofsurveyrespondentsby‘primarybusinesstype’.0% 10% 20% 30% 40%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 xxxxxxBreakdownofsurveyrespondentsbyjobtitle0% 10% 20% 30%DisclaimerThisreportcontainsgeneralinformationonlyandReutersEventsandDeloittearenot,bymeansofthispublication,renderingaccounting,business,financial,investment,legal,taxorotherprofessionaladviceorservices.Thispublicationisnotasubstituteforsuchprofessionaladviceorservices,norshoulditbeusedasabasisforanyinvestmentdecisionoractionthatmayaffectyourbusiness.Beforemakinganydecisionortakinganyactionthatmayaffectyourbusiness,youshouldconsultaqualifiedprofessionaladviser.ReutersEventsandDeloitteshallnotberesponsibleforanylosssustainedbyanypersonwhoreliesonthispublication.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 xxxxxxDeliveringNetZeroKeyfinding:Whilegovernmentsarestillexpectedtoprovideleadershiponnet-zerotargets,companiesareincreasinglyseizingtheinitiativeinimplementingdecarbonisationpathways.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 DeliveringnetzeroAgrowingscientificconsensusaroundtherealityofglobalwarming,vialongwithclearsignsofclimatechange,suchasworseningwildfires,storms,andfloods,havehelpedgalvaniseactionsdesignedtoreducecarbonemissions.Thelastyear,especially,hasseenhundredsofcompaniespledgingtobecomenet-zerocarbonemitters,withmanyaimingtoachievethetargetby2040vii,adecadeaheadoftheParisAgreementdate.ThesecompaniesincludeenergycompaniessuchasFortescue,UrbanXRenewablesGroupandZenergi.viiiTheincreasingsenseofurgencyregardingemissionsreductionisreflectedinoursurveyfindings,withalmost65percentofrespondentssayingtheirorganisationswerehighlycommittedtotheenergytransitionand/orachievingnet-zeroemissions.Afurther19percentsaidtheseissueswerebeingdiscussedatcorporatelevel,andonly2percentclaimedtheirorganisationsweresilentontheenergytransition.Theimplicationisthatthousandsoforganisationsarenowplanningandimplementingpathways.Butcompany

leadershipteamsdonotseethemselvesasleadingthistransition.Companyleadershipteamsdonotseethemselvesasleadingthistransition.Ofcourse,anarguablymoreinterestingandalarmingfindingisthatathirdoftheenergyindustryrespondentsdonothaveacommitment.Instead,93percentofthesample—andasimilarpercentageofC-suiterespondents—believethatnationalgovernmentswillhaveahighorveryhighimpactondrivingtheenergytransition.Beyondgovernments,energycompanies—ofwhichtherewereroughly900inthesurvey—wereseenashavingahighorveryhighimpactontheenergytransitionbyalmost89percentofrespondents.Nearly81percentofrespondentsplacedemphasisonthefinancialsectortodrivetheprocess.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 DeliveringnetzeroAnswerstothequestion:Whatimpactdoyouthinkthefollowingactorswillhaveondrivingtheenergytransitionforward?VeryHighHighLowVeryLowNationalGovernmentEnergyCompaniesCorporatesFinancialSectorNoImpactConsumersSocietalActivists0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Corporateswereseenashavinghighimpactby56percentofthesample,andaveryhighimpactbylessthan22percent.The‘veryhigh’rankingisonlyalittlehigherthanthatattributedtoconsumers,at20percent.Furtherproofoftheimportanceofgovernmentsinleadingmovestodecarbonisationcamefromaquestionintheresearchwherealmost92percentofrespondentsagreedorstronglyagreedthatpublicsectorleadershipwouldbecrucialfortheenergytransition.Somewhatworryingly,almost71percentofthesample(andnearly76percentofC-suiterespondents)also

saidthepublicsectorisfailingtodrivethetransitionattheraterequired.Nevertheless,governmentactionsdoappeartobeinfluencingcorporateplans,withmorethan56percentofrespondentssayingtheoutcomeofCOP26wouldhaveadirectimpactonbusinessstrategywithinthenextfiveyears.Theexactnatureofthatimpactremainsunclear.Ontheissueofwhattypesofemissionsshouldbecoveredbydecarbonisationplans,thereisawiderangeofviews.OverathirdofthesamplesaidenergyandindustrialsectorsshouldtakeprimaryresponsibilityfortheirScope1emissions,whicharethosearisingdirectlyfromownedorcontrolledsourcessuchaspowerplants.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 DeliveringnetzeroAnswerstothequestion:Towhatextentdoyouagreewiththesestatements?QuestionStronglyAgreeAgreeUnsureDisagreeStronglydisagreeStrongpublicsector64%28%5%2%1%leadershipiscrucialtoachievingasuccessfulenergytransitionThepublicsectoris28%44%19%9%1%failingtodrivetheenergytransitionattherateneededTheoutcomesfrom19%38%31%10%3%COP26willdirectlyimpactonmybusinessstrategywithinthenextfiveyearsJustunderanotherthirdbelievedresponsibilityshouldcoverScope1andScope2emissions,whichcomefromenergythatispurchasedaspartofbusinessoperations.Androughlyanotherthirdthoughtcompaniesshouldalsoberesponsibleforallotherindirectemissionsthatoccurinacompany’svaluechain,knownasScope3greenhousegases.RegardlessofScope,thereisgrowingconfidencethatcompaniesmaybeabletodeliveronnet-zerostrategies.

Itisunclearifthisdisparityofviewsreflectsdifferinglevelsofambitionorisaconsequenceoftherangeofdecarbonisationchallengesfacingdifferentindustries,sincesomecompanieswilllikelyfinditeasierthanotherstoeliminateScope2andScope3emissions.RegardlessofScope,thereisgrowingconfidencethatcompaniesmaybeabletodeliveronnet-zerostrategies.Almost74percentoftheoverallsample,andnearly81percentofC-suiterespondents,saidthenecessaryactionswerebeingputinplaceintheirorganisations.Thereisreasonableconfidenceamongsurveyrespondentsinbeingabletoachievenet-zerostatuswellaheadof2050.Morethan10percentofrespondentssaidtheircompanieshadalreadycutnetemissionstozero.Amongcompaniesthatareputtingtherightactionsinplace,afurther20percentwereexpectingtobenetzeroby2025.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 DeliveringnetzeroEmissionsScopesthatenergyandindustrialsectorsshouldtakeprimaryresponsibilityfor.Scope1Scope2Scope3None0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Answerstothequestion:Areyouconfidentthatyourcompanyisputtingthenecessaryactionsinplacetodeliveritsnetzerostrategy?YesNo0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%Ofthoserespondentsthatfeeltheircompaniesareputtingthenecessaryactionsinplace,almost65percentbelievetheirorganisationshouldbenetzeroby2030,thesampleoptimisticallypredicts.Lessthan5percentbelievedtheprocesswouldlastbeyond2050.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 DeliveringnetzeroWhencompaniesthatareputtingthenecessaryactionsinplaceexpecttobecomenet-zero.Italreadyis2025203020402050After20500% 10% 20% 30% 40%C-suiterespondentswereevenmoreoptimistic,withmorethan86percentpredictingnet-zerostatusby2030andlessthan3percentexpectingtostillbepursuingthetargetafter2050—anunusuallybrightoutlook.AlmostaquarterofC-suiterespondentssaidtheircompanieswerealreadycarbonneutral,whichclasheswithwiderindustrydatasuggestingonlyaboutafifthoflargecompanies

haveevengotasfarassettinganet-zerotargetix.ItisunclearwhytherewassuchalargediscrepancyonthisfigurebetweentheC-suiteandthelargersample,unlesstheformerhadtendedtocomefromcompanieswithmoreaggressivecarbonreductioninitiatives.Only6percentofthesurveyrespondentsthoughttheircompanieswouldultimatelyfailtoachievenet-zerostatus.AmongC-suiterespondents,thelevelwasjustover4percent.Energytrendsprediction:netzeroCompaniesnowfacesignificantlegislativeandstakeholderpressuretodemonstratepathwaystonet-zeroemissions.By2025,anet-zerocommitmentand/orpathwaywillbeastandardpieceofgovernanceformedium-to-largebusinesseswithaninternationalcustomerbase.Whether(andwhen)net-zeroemissionscouldbeachievedamongcompaniesthatarenotactingoncarbon.NoYes,by2025Yes,by2030Yes,by2040Yes,by2050Yes,after20500% 10% 20% 30% 40%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 xxxxxxGovernance,Society,PeopleKeyfinding:Theabilitytodeliveronnet-zeropledgesisincreasinglyafactorinhelpingcompaniestoattracthumantalent.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 Governance,society,peopleThegrowingimportanceofnet-zeropathwayswithincorporategovernanceframeworksisunderscoredbythefactthatmorethan64percentofrespondentssaidenergytransitioncommitmentswouldbe‘amajorfactor’inwhethertheywouldworkforacompany.Incontrast,little

over8percentsaidacommitmenttotheenergytransitionwouldbeimmaterialinchoosinganemployer.Only4percentofrespondentssaidtheywouldnotworkforabusinesscommittedtotheenergytransition.Importanceofenergytransitioncommitmentforselectinganemployer.IwouldnotworkforitItwouldbeamajorfactorinmydecisionItwouldbeaminorfactorinmydecisionItwouldbeanimmaterialfactor0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%Employeeattitudestowardstheenergytransitionareimportantbecausereducingglobalemissionsisataskthatisexpectedtogeneratesignificantlevelsofemployment.AccordingtotheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,theenergytransitioncouldcreate42millionjobsgloballyby2050,upfrom11.5millionin2019.xThenumberofjobsinenergyefficiencyandflexibilityisalsosettosoar,toalmost36millionin2050fromunder17milliontoday.Attractingthepeopleneededforalow-

carbonfuturecouldbeachallengeforasignificantminorityofcompanies,accordingtoourresearch:almost28percentofthosepolledsaidtheenergyandindustrialsectorsprobablyordefinitelylackedskillsforthetransition.Nevertheless,53percentsayingtheenergyandindustrialsectorsprobablyordefinitelyhadaworkforcecapableofdeliveringthetransition,afindingwhichperhapshighlightsmisplacedoptimismoverthestateofthejobmarket.Thefocusthereforeformanycompaniesmaybetoequiptheirexistingworkforcewiththeskillsneededtohelpnavigatethepathtonetzero.Answerstothequestion:Doyouthinktheenergyandindustrialssectorshavetheskillsandworkforcecapableofdeliveringtheenergytransition?DefinitelynotProbablynotMayormaynotYes,probablyYes,definitely§0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 Governance,society,peopleUpskillingfortheenergytransitioncanbeseenbothasathreatandanopportunity.Thethreatisthatafailuretosecureskillscouldderailprogresstowardsnet-zeroemissions.Yetwhilejobsmaybelostinsomesectors,theenergytransitioncouldcreateemploymentopportunitiesincommunitiesaroundtheworld.

OneclearexampleofthisisintheUnitedStates,wheredevelopinganoffshorewindindustryisviewedasaprioritynotonlyforitscontributiontoclimatechangemitigationbutalsobecauseitcouldemployanestimated44,000workersby2030.xiiEnergytrendsprediction:governance,society,peoplePolicymakersalreadyviewtheenergytransitionasapotentialengineforemploymentandthistrendwilllikelygrow,helpingtobuildsupportforrenewables.Atthesametime,skillsshortagesarelikelytobecomemoreapparent.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 xxxxxxMarkets,FinanceandInvestmentKeyfinding:Wewillallenduppayingfortheenergytransition,andmostcompanieshavealreadystartedallocatingresourcestothetask.Buthighcostsandregulatoryuncertaintyremainbarrierstoinvestment.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 Markets,financeandinvestmentWhoshouldbearthecostofajusttransitiontoamoresustainableenergysystem?Ourpollrevealedbroadagreementonthispoint,withalmost80percentofthesamplesayingcostsshouldbesharedbyeveryoneratherthanbeingshoulderedbygovernments,businesses,orconsumers.Answerstothequestion:Whoshouldbearthecostofjusttransition?GovernmentsEveryoneBusinessesConsumers0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Whenaskedtopickaparticulargroupofactorsthatshouldbeartheprimarycostofthetransition,energycompaniesemergedaheadofconsumersandprivateorpublicfinance,althoughthelatterwasseenashavinganimportantsecondaryrole.Energyconsumersandprivatefinancewerebothseenashavingalesserlevelofresponsibilityinpayingforthetransition.

However,whenrespondentswereaskednotwhoshouldpayforthetransitionbutwhowillpayforit,aninterestingfindingemerged.Consumerswereseenasbeingthemostlikelytoendupfootingthebillforthetransition,byalargemargin,whileprivatefinancewasseenasbeingfarlesslikelytopay.Rankingofwhoshouldbeartheprimarycostoftheenergytransition:1equalsfirstchoice,4equalslastchoice.12PublicFinance3EnergyCompaniesEnergyConsumersPrivateFinance40% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 Markets,financeandinvestmentRankingofwhowillbeartheprimarycostoftheenergytransition:1equalsfirstchoiceand4equalslastchoice.EnergyConsumersEnergyCompaniesPublicFinancePrivateFinance2340% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%Thisseemstoruncountertoprevalentenergytransitionthinking,whichforeseesabigroleforprivatefinance.TheInternationalEnergyAgency,forexample,estimatesitsnet-zeroscenariocouldattractmorethan$2.7trillionofprivatefinance,comparedto$1.2trillionofpublicfunding.xiiiAtacorporatelevel,meanwhile,itemergedthatmost

companiesinthepollhadalreadybegunallocatingfinancialresourcestowardscleanenergyandsustainability,withalmost31percenthavingstartedthisprocessmorethanfiveyearsago.Afurther36percenthadstartedinvestinginthelastfiveyearsand16percentstartedspendingthisyear.Onlyaround5percentexpectednottoeverinvestinsustainability.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 Markets,financeandinvestmentAnswerstothequestion:Whenwill/didyourcompanybeginallocatingmorefinancialresourcestowardscleanenergy/sustainabilitystrategies?Pre-2016Pre-2021ThisyearAfter2025After2030Never0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Investingintheenergytransitionischallengingpredominantlybecauseofthecostsinvolved,accordingtothesurvey.Costwascitedasabarriertoinvestmentbymorethan83percentofrespondents,withalmost79percentalsomentioninglackofclarity.

Thiscouldbeviewedasgoodnews,sincethecostofrenewablesisonalong-termdownwardtrend,manyindustrialscanalreadysavemoneywhilecuttingemissionsxivandclarityaroundinvestmentsisimprovinginlinewithincreasedregulation.Conversely,accesstofundsdoesnotappeartobemuchofaproblem.Energytrendsprediction:markets,financeandinvestmentItisuncleartowhatextenttheresultsofthissurveyreflecttheimpactofstimulusplanswithafocusonsustainability,butthereseemslittledoubttheinvestmentclimateforrenewableenergywillcontinuetobefavourablefortheforeseeablefuture.Answerstothequestion:Towhatextentarethefollowingfactorsabarriertoinvestingintheenergytransition?StrongBarrierBarrierNotabarrierHighinvestmentAnEnablercostLackofclarityInsufficientfundsAStrongEnablerAccesstofunds0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 xxxxxxCleanTechnologyandElectrificationKeyfinding:Technologyiskeytodecarbonisationandelectrificationisthebiggesttechnologyenablerforemissionsreduction,butgovernmentsupportisstillneededtoelectrifytheindustrialsector.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 CleantechnologyandelectrificationCompaniesfacearangeofchallengesinpursuinganenergytransitionagenda,butfromourpollthebiggestoftheseappearstobetechnology.Almost88percentofthesamplesaidtechnologywasahighorveryhighpriorityfor

thetransition,comparedto78percentcitingdevelopingbusinessmodelsand72percentmentioningregulationandgovernance.Answerstothequestion:Towhatextentareyouactivelyseekingsolutionsforthefollowingchallenges?VeryHighHighLowVeryLowNone0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Ontechnologychoices,therewasbroadagreementontheideathatelectrificationwouldbethekeytounlockingandacceleratingtheenergytransition.Therewasalsoaconsensusthatcarboncapturetechnology,whichfeaturesprominentlyinmostrecentnet-zeropathways,wouldnotbecommerciallyviablewithoutapriceoncarbon,somethingstilllackinginmanymajorenergymarkets.

Inaddition,morethan69percentofrespondentsstronglyorsomewhatagreedwiththeideathathydrogenwouldhaveagreaterimpactondecarbonisingindustrialsectorsthanontheenergyindustry.Thisechoesperceivedsentimentfromindustryexpertswhohaveexpressedconcernthatlow-carbonhydrogenshouldonlybeusedtoreduceemissionsinapplicationswhereelectrificationisextremelyhard.xvEnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 CleantechnologyandelectrificationAgreementwithvariousstatementsrelatingtotechnologyintheenergytransition.StronglyAgreeSomewhatagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeSomewhatdisagreeStronglydisagree0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Ifelectrifyingtheindustrialsectoristhekeytodecarbonisation,thentheprocessofelectrificationitselfwilldependonthreemajorpillars,accordingtothesurveyresults:Asupportivegovernmentpolicy,citedbyalmost22percentofthesample.Upgradedgridinfrastructure,mentionedby21percent.Morerenewablecapacity,listedby20percent.Fortunately,lessthan5percentofthesamplesaidthekeytoelectrifyingtheindustrialsectorwoulddepend

ontechnologythatdoesnotcurrentlyexist.Thethreetechnologiesthatweredeemedaslikelytohavethemostimpactonthespeedoftheenergytransitionbefore2030weresolar(listedasthemostimportantby25percentofthesample),wind(listedby15percent)andcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS,14percent).Thehighscoresforsolarandwindaretohavebeenexpectedgiventhematurity,scalabilityandcost-effectivenessofthesetechnologies.However,itissurprisingthatCCSwasrankedaheadofstorageorhydrogen(bothlistedfirstbylessthan9percentofrespondents),whichareseenasindispensableforgridintegrationofrenewablesanddecarbonisationofhard-to-abatesectors,respectively.Energytrendsprediction:cleantechnologyandelectrificationWhilebreakthroughtechnologywillalwaysmakeheadlines,respondentsbelievetherealadvancesintheenergytransitionwillcomefromdevelopmentofwind,solarandenergystorage.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 CleantechnologyandelectrificationRequirementsforelectrificationoftheenergysector.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Technologiesrankedinorderoftheimpacttheycouldhaveonthespeedoftheenergytransitionbefore2030.10% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 xxxxxxTheIndustryTransitionKeyfinding:Whilethetransportsectorisonitswaytodecarbonisation,thereisstilluncertaintyoverwhenandhowotherhard-to-abateindustriescouldachievenet-zeroemissions.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 CleantechnologyandelectrificationExpertsbelieveacombinationofwind,solarandenergystoragecouldhelpdecarboniseupto90percentofelectricitygeneration.Forotherindustries,however,theprocessisnotsostraightforward—totheextent

thataroundaquarteroftherespondentshaddoubtsoverwhethertheindustrialsectorwouldbeabletocutemissionstozeroby2050.Agreementwithindustrialsectordecarbonisationstatements.StronglyAgreeSomewhatagreeNeitheragreenordisagreeSomewhatdisagreeStronglydisagree0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Thiscontrastswiththeoptimismaroundreachingnetzeroseenpreviouslyinthesurvey.Anevenhigherproportionofthesample—39percent—somewhatorstronglydisagreedwiththenotionthatindustrialsectorshavethestrategiesinplacetoachievenetzeroby2050.Andjustoverhalf(54percent)believeindustrialdecarbonisationcanhappenwithtoday’stechnologies.

Itisimportanttonote,however,thatprogresstowardsnetzerovariessignificantlyaccordingtotheindustryconcerned.Thus,transportiswidelyseenasmakingstrongprogresstowardsreducingemissions.Thisisfollowedbyconstruction,chemicals,metalsandmining.EnergyTransitionTrendsReport2022 CleantechnologyandelectrificationIndustriesrankedinorderofprogressmadeineffortsto