McKinsey关于IRAQ重建机会的咨询报告

OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITYDoingBusinessinIraqAmman,5thJune2003AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinsey&Company,Inc.AGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments

AGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments

Totalarea:437,000m2LimitedarablelandArableland:11%Permanentcrops:1%Desert:88%LargestgovernatesBaghdad(8.0m)Nineveh(2.1m)Basra(2.0m)Varyingclimate(Baghdad)Summertemp:35-50ºWintertemp:5-15ºRainfall:155mm/year

Source: CountryWatch,CIAworldfactbookCartransport39,000kmpavedroads765,000privatelyregisteredpassengercars266,000privatelyregisteredtrucksAirMajorairportsinBaghdad,BasraandMosulThreemajorrailwayroutesBaghdad–Kirkuk–IrbilBaghdad–Mosul–YurubiyahBaghdad–Maagal–UmmQasrTelecom3%penetration,nomobilenetworkUtilities250watertreatmentfacilitiesPowergenerationcapacityof9500(pre1990),currentlyat1800MWGeographyandclimateInfrastructureThemajorityofIraqischaracterizedbydesertOVERVIEWIRAQIGEOGRAPHY

Source: Worldoutlook,EIUcountryriskreportIraq50%ofpopulationyoungerthan16years28%ofpopulationislaborforceApproximately51%males75%ofpopulationresidesinurbanareasThereisanestimated1m–2mIraqi’slivinginexileFertilityrate4.5–5childrenperwomenAdultliteracyat54%1.5-2.5millionforeignworkersKeyfacts198019851990199520002002CAGR3%DEVELOPMENTIRAQIPOPULATION1980TO2002Iraqipopulationamountstomorethan24millionsMillionSource: CIAworldfactbook100%=24.2mOthersArabs-ShiaMuslimsKurds–SunniMuslims46212Arabs–SunniMuslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATIONSIZEBYETHNICGROUPShiaMuslimsformIraq’sethnicmajority%Adultliteracyat54%(vs.75%inIran) * From6to23yearsSource: EIUcountryprofileIraq200219801998EDUCATIONENROLMENTRATIOFORALLAGES*-1980VS.1998AnincreasingnumberofchildrendoesnotreceiveformaleducationESTIMATESource: CountryWatchProvenreservesUnprovenpotentialTotalGasTrillionm3,2001OilBillionbarrels,2001OVERVIEWOFIRAQ’SNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESIraqhasoneofthelargestnaturaloilandgasreserves…ESTIMATESource: BPStatisticalreview,20021.SaudiArabia2.Iraq3.UAE4.Kuwait5.IranOil,provedreservesBillionbarrels,2001Gas,provedreservesTrillionm3,20011.Russia2.Iran3.Qatar4.SaudiArabia5.UAE10.IraqRANKINGOFBIGGESTNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESWORDWIDE…whicharethesecondlargestinoilandthetenthlargestingasESTIMATE * Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource: CIAWorldfactbook;CountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQ’SREALGDP*-1980TO2002Overthepastdecade,Iraq’srealGDPfellby50%…USDbillionESTIMATE-50%GDPestimatesfor2002subjecttowidevariation(USD24-60billion)* Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENTOFIRAQ’SREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002…andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurtherUSDthousandsGDP/capitaestimatessubjecttowidevariation(USD1.000-2.500)-70%Source:GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003IraqSaudiArabiaCOMPARISONOFGDPDEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000IraqhassufferedasignificantreductioninGDPoverlast25yearsinbillionUSDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000Source:GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003IraqSaudiArabiaCOMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITADEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000Inthelate70tiesIraq’’sGDPpercapitawasatparwithSaudiArabiain‘‘000USDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000*BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource:EIUcountryprofileIraqJordanIranIraqSaudiArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002Iraq’’scurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIranUSDthousandsSource:Economistintelligenceunit2002;OANDA.COMIraqiinflationrates%19961997199819992000ExchangeratesIraqiDinarperUSD(blackmarketrate)Hugebudgetdeficitsleadto““printingofmoney””BUT:OfficialexchangeratehasbeenID0,31totheUSDsince1983200120021996199719981999200020012002CurrentexchangerateID900-1.000=1USDESTIMATEDEVELOPMENTOFINFLATIONANDEXCHANGERATES––1996TO2002IraqhasshownhighinflationcoupledwithstrongdepreciationofthecurrencySource:EIUcountrydataExternaldebt$bnIraqSyriaJordanIran230-4851091113%ofGPD60-130MaincausesofuncertaintyareAccruedinterest“Assistance””fundsinIran-IraqwarClaimsfollowingGulfwar1991ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001Iraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankrupt*Estimatesrangefrom$103.4––$129.4bnSource:Reuters;InstituteforinternationalEconomics25181310SaudiArabiaGulfStatesexcl.KuwaitKuwaitParisClubexclRussia,France8Russia8France2USA3CommercialBankCreditors2Bulgaria2Poland,Czech,Romania1MultilateralInstitutions1Yugoslavia2TradeClaims24OthersTotalexternaldebt119*14-25Kuwaitreparationpayments133––144TotalclaimsIraqregardedtheloansfromSaudiArabiaandKuwaitasgrantpaymentsforits1980waragainstIranCommentsCreditorAmount––principalandoverdueinterestESTIMATEBREAKDOWNOFIRAQILIABILITIES––2001Iraq’sliabilitiesaremainly‘‘loans’’fromtheGulfstatesgrantedtoIraqinthe80tiesduringthewarwithIran(USDbn)TheIMFandWorldBankareowedlessthan$200mSource:EIUCountryprofileIraq2002FranceAustraliaChinaJordanTop5importsourcesTop5exportdestinationsU.S.FranceJordanItalySpainItalyMainlyoilexportswithinthefoodforoilprogramMAJORIRAQITRADINGPARTNERS-2001Franceismostimportantsupplier,theUSmostimportantcustomerofIraqiproductsUSDmillionAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopmentsSource:McKinsey“Goodstandard”

1Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsmodestlyataCAGRof3-5%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil9-11%)“BestinClass”

2Assumesthenon-oilpartofthetheIraqieconomygrowsstronglyataCAGRof7-9%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil11-13%)“Distinctive”3Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsaggressivelyataCAGR12-15%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil13-15%)ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONTHREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSIraq’sInthe‘WorldClass’scenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013Non-oilSectorsOilproductionlevel2008Oilproductionlevel20134-5millionbarrelsperday6-7millionbarrelsperdayOilSector+*)Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource:McKinseyGDPdevelopment2003-2013(inbnUSD)GDPpercapita*2003-2013(in‘‘000USD)ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONTHREEPOTENTIALDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSInthe‘‘distinctive’scenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby20131“GoodStandard”

1.8-2.22.2-2.62003201320081.253-6373-862003201320083014%6%11%3%2“Bestinclass”

2.0-2.32.5-2.92003201320081.257-6783-982003201320083016%8%12%5%3“Distinctive”

2.2-2.63.1-3.82003201320081.263-75102-1262003201320083018%11%15%8%COMPARISONOFIRAQWITHSAUDIARABIASource:GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003GDPpercapitacomparison‘000USDGDPcomparisonbnUSD651452015530225516110110IraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudi19801990200319801990200370-90300-32080-100300-320100-130300-3203.1-4.99-112.5-2.99-112.2-2.69-11IraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiGDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)GDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)GDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)23120132013ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments* Assumingacapitalproductivityof0.2Source:McKinseyanalysisGDP2003(bnUSD)30200-300Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)1GDP2013

(bnUSD)70-90Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)2250-350GDP2013

(bnUSD)80-100Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)3350-500GDP2013

bnUSD100-130ESTIMATEOFREQUIREDINVESTMENTSINTOIRAQOVERTHENEXTDECADEToachievethe‘‘WorldClass’’scenarioIraq’’seconomyrequiresUSD250-350billionininvestments,mostofwhichwillhavetobeFDI,overthenextdecadeESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONAssuminganaveragecapitalproductivityof0.2Source: GlobalInsight;McKinseyanalysisOilandgasConstructionCommunity,socialandpersonalservicesAgricultureRetail/WholesaleCommunicationincl.telecomManufacturingTransportationFinancialservicesincl.RealestateOther(incl.Utilities)Sectorsize-2008ShareofGDPin%in200860107554332134-4264332-321-211100ESTIMATEDPOTENTIALSECTORSIZEBy2008,Iraq’seconomyislikelytocontinuetobedominatedbytheOil/gassectorESTIMATEbnUSD57-67TotalScenario2:GDPgrowthrateat11-13%GDPasanindicatorofthecapabilityofaneconomyto‘‘addvalue’Source:GlobalInsight,McKinseyanalysisBy2010IraqcangenerateannualoilrevenuesofaboutUSD44billion(assuming80%exportandapriceofUSD20perbarrel)Source:PFCEconomy2001200220032004200520062007200820092010Raisingproductionto6mb/drequiresUSD30-35billionofinvestmentsRehabilitatingofexistinginfrastructurewillrequireUSD3-6billionofinvestmentsESTIMATEESTIMATEDIRAQIOILPRODUCTIONIncreasingIraq’soilcapacitywillrequiresignificantinvestmentsmbarrelperdaySource:McKinseyOil&gasReestablishingandincreasingoilproductioncapacityto6-7millionbarrelsperdayby2010USD35-40billionUtilitiesRe-constructionofbasicinfrastructuresuchastransportfacilities,telecommunicationsandutilities(powercapacitycurrentlyat1.800MWcomparedto9.500MWpre1990)USD10-15billionjustforelectricityandtelecomEstimatesforrebuildingIraqvaryfromabout$20billionayearforseveralyearstoasmuchas$600billionoveradecadebecausethescaleofreconstructionisdifficulttoestimateEducationRebuildingandupgradingofprimary,secondaryandtertiaryeducationalinstitutionsUSD6-12billionHealthcareReestablishingpre1980healthcarefacilitiesandstandardsUSD10-20billionESTIMATETransportinfrastructureRebuilding40,000kmofpavedroads,3mainrailwaylines,3mainairports,2portsSeveralbillionsHousing/offices…………RebuildingIraq’sbasichardinfrastructurewillbechallengingandwillrequiresubstantialinvestmentsoverthenextdecadeESTIMATEDINVESTMENTRQUIREMENTSIndustrialinfrastructureRebuildingIraq’sindustrialbase(petrochemical,buildingmaterials,mining,consumergoods,etc.)?Source:McKinsey,UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefense,USAIDWebsiteUSAIDCONTRACTS/GRANTSAwardedcontractsandgrantsPersonnelSupport(AwardedtoInternationalResourcesGroup,7/2//03)SeaportAdministration(AwardedtoStevedoringServicesofAmerica,24/3//03)PrimaryandSecondaryEducation(AwardedtoCreativeAssociates,11/4//03)LocalGovernance(AwardedtoResearchTriangleInstitute,11/4/03)CapitalConstruction(AwardedtoBechtel,17/4/03)TheaterLogisticalSupport(Inter-agencyagreementawardedtotheAirForceContractAugmentationProgram(AFCAP)on17/2/03)AirportAdministration(awardedtoSkyLinkAirandLogisticssupporton5/5/2003)PublicHealth(AwardedtoAbtAssociates,30/4/03)BacktoSchoolCampaign(AwardedtoUNICEF,8/4//03)HealthWaterandSanitationServices(AwardedtoUNICEFon28/3//03)HealthStrengtheningSystems(AwardedtoWHO,28/3//03)CommunityActionProgram(Awardedtonumberofrelieforganizationsincl.MercyCorps,IRD,SavetheChildrenFederation,27/05/2003)NOTCOMPREHENSIVEUptoUSD680millionUptoUSD168millionUptoUSD63millionUASAIDhasawardedannumberofcontractsandthereareaboutUSD6.7billioninfundsavailabletorebuildIraqAvailablefundsources:USD1.7billionoffrozenIraqigovernmentassetsintheUS.USD700millionofIraqigovernmentcashseizedinIraq.USD1.9billioninpledgesfromtheinternationalcommunityandotherassistanceoffers.USD2.5billionappropriatedfromUSCongressforreconstruction.Source:McKinseyCreateanenablingandopeneconomicenvironmentAddresskeyeconomicgovernanceissuessuchastaxation,landownership,companylaws,industryde-/regulationandinvestorprotectionTheimplementedpoliticalandeconomicgovernancemodelwillbeessentialforbuildinginvestorconfidenceImplementingthe‘‘right’long-termeconomicgovernancemodelwillbeessentialforattractingtheforeigninvestmentnecessarytorebuildIraqFORDISCUSSIONKEYREQUIREMENTSTOATTRACTFOREIGNINVESTMENTSBuildaconstitutionalstateImplementthekeybuildingblocksforanconstitutionalstatewithanindependentjudicialsystemEstablishanaccountablecivilserviceBuildthefoundationforanefficient,effectiveandaccountableadministrationSource:Pressclippings“[Iraq]willbeanexampleofanewArabCharterthatchampionsinternalreform,greaterpoliticalparticipation,economicopennessandfreetrade”–GeorgeBushSELECTEDCOUTES“IraqisatestcaseoftheUSabilitytoengenderdemocracyandmarketeconomicsinthemiddleeast””–SeniorUSOfficial“TheUSishopingtoestablishafreemarketeconomyinIraq:…privatisationofthestate-ownedbusinesses……formingastockmarket…andfundamentaltaxreform”–WSJIraqislikelytohaveaneconomicframeworkthatisinfluencedbytheUSmodelFORDISCUSSIONSource:PressclippingsHowdothechangesinIraqaffecttheeconomicgovernancestructuresintheregionandwillothercountriesintheregionbe‘‘forced’’toopenuptheireconomiestostaycompetitive?WhatistheeconomicandpoliticalimpactofapotentialdropinoilpricescausedbyanincreasedinIraq’sproductionandwhatwillbethefutureofOPEC?HowcanregionalcompaniesbenefitfromexpectedlargeinvestmentrequirementstorebuildIraqandhowwillpositionthemselvestocapturetheopportunity(e.g.,consolidation,alliances)?KEYISSUESFORTHEREGIONFOLLOWINGTHEREBUILDINGOFIRAQ……whichwillhaveimpactonothereconomiesoftheregionFORDISCUSSIONTHANKYOU9、静夜四无无邻，荒居居旧业贫。。。1月-231月-23Wednesday,January4,202310、雨中黄叶树树，灯下白头头人。。21:23:4021:23:4021:231/4/20239:23:40PM11、以以我我独独沈沈久久，，愧愧君君相相见见频频。。。。1月月-2321:23:4021:23Jan-2304-Jan-2312、故人人江海海别，，几度度隔山山川。。。21:23:4021:23:4021:23Wednesday,January4,202313、乍见翻翻疑梦，，相悲各各问年。。。1月-231月-2321:23:4021:23:40January4,202314、他乡生白发发，旧国见青青山。。04一月20239:23:40下午21:23:401月-2315、比不了得得就不比，，得不到的的就不要。。。。一月239:23下下午1月-2321:23January4,202316、行行动动出出成成果果，，工工作作出出财财富富。。。。2023/1/421:23:4021:23:4004January202317、做前，，能够环环视四周周；做时时，你只只能或者者最好沿沿着以脚脚为起点点的射线线向前。。。9:23:40下午午9:23下午午21:23:401月-239、没有有失败败，只只有暂暂时停停止成成功！！。1月-231月-23Wednesday,January4,202310、很多多事情情努力力了未未必有有结果果，但但是不不努力力却