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MatthewBucklandGM:NewMedia,M&GOnlinefuturewebtrends

innovationseries2007withjimmywalesIMGSRC:Flickr资料PPT中国PPT资源网收集提供,版权归原作者所有thethingaboutpredictions...IMGSRC:Flickr"Computersinthefuturemayweighnomorethan1.5tons."

PopularMechanics,forecastingtherelentlessmarchofscience,1949

"Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybefivecomputers."

ThomasWatson,chairmanofIBM,1943"640Koughttobeenoughforanybody."

BillGates,1981apocryphal

"Thereisnoreasonanyonewouldwantacomputerintheirhome."

KenOlson,president,chairmanandfounderofDigitalEquipmentCorp.,1977internet

connectivityDirtcheap,lighteningfast&“alwayson”internetComputerslight,dumbterminals:neednetconnectiontoworkMostapplicationsweb-basedforbestefficiencyIMGSRC:Flickralldigitaldeviceswillbeconnected&networkedFromyourcar,radio,phone,fridge...“alwayson”AnunconnecteddigitaldevicewillbeastrangethingWiMaxconnectedsunglasseswithvoicepromptedHUD?riseofthe

mobileinternetRapidimprovementsinconnectivity&screensMobiletobedominantplatformforconnectingtonetworldwideJapan:happenedalready(mostlysurfwebthroughphones)Voicecallspoweredbyinternet&SMS/Texts->IMCellphoneselectronicwallets&banks=mainmethodofpaymentCitizensvoteforfirsttimeinelectionsviamobilephones?riseofindividual

&entrepreneurOpensource=unprecedentedaccesstocode&applicationsCheaptocreatebusinessonline&makeownmediaTeenagerinbasementsameopp.asworkerinbigcompanyEXAMPLE:Newmobileoperatingsystem(Android)?stridesagainstdigitaldivideDevelopingworldjoinsdigitalecosystemviamobilephonesAlsobecomepartofeconomyviacellphonewalletMobilephonescheap&broadbandubiquitousIlliteracyissuesovercomebyvideo&audiostreamsCreatesnewareasofcollaborationandeducationalmostnoprivacy

onthewebYourdatawillbeoutthereItwillbeokbecauseeveryonewillbeinthesameboatSworkingserviceslikeFBtheriseofthe

virtualuniverseVirtualworldslikeSecondlifegomainstreamCometoforeasgraphiccards&broadbandimprovePotentiallyavisualalternativetotheworldwidewebStandards:differentworldsconnecttoeachotherseamlesslyVirtualcoupd’etatbySLcitizens?LindenLabscedesSLtodemocraticallyelectedvirtualgovtinformationpollution&overloadNextbigchallengeishowtomanagemassesofinformationPeoplewillcomplainabout"digitalfatigue“&digitalnoiseFocusondevelopingfilters&aggregators“Switch-off"holidaysregularlyprescribedbyyourdoctorRiseofanti-digitalmovementsurging“getbacktobasics”Inresponsetoclutter,asecondworldwidewebannouncedmoregoogles

&facebooksGoogle&FacebookfinallygetgoodcompetitionMicrosoftreleasesOScodeandgoesopensourceMSmakesrevenuebysellingadvertising&givingsupportAdvertisingismainbus.model(connectingsellers&buyers)FacebookbecomesavirtualOS/desktop,withMSinfluencedeclineofthe

nationstate?Govthaslessinfluence&controlthaneverbeforeTechnologiesthreatenexistingpower&economicrelationshipsAlso:musicindustryhasresisteddigitalaudioandNapsterButoppressiveregimesclampdownoninternetSomecountriesregressintodarkages

...andmedia?mediadistribution

&productionAllmediaeventuallydeliveredviainternetHardlyanyspecialistprint,tv,radiomediacompaniesleftAllfullyconverged,broadcasting&publishingviathenetMediaonmanydigitalplatformsMEDIAMEDIA

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fragmentedmediaenvironmentNon-mediaplayersbecomedefactomediacompaniesMediaworldfilledwithnewcompetitorsCellphoneoperators,handsetmakers->mediacompaniesVodacomstopaggregating,startproducingowncontentOperatorsalreadybigmediacompanies(Voda:1,4musers)Battlebetweenmedia&cellphonecompaniesloomingMEDIAMEDIA

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noweveryoneisamediaplayerBarriertoentrydropsevenmoredramaticallyRiseofthereaderandtheconsumerReaders:publishers,broadcasters:competitors&collaboratorsSmall,convergedmediachallengemediaconglomeratesMEDIAMEDIA

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roleofmediachangesAlsocontentaggregators,facilitatorsBusinessmodel:captureaudienceviaallmeansMediacompanieslooktoownchannels:dealsforownphones?Contentportals->webapplications&servicesSocialnetworksaswellascontenthubsMEDIAMEDIA

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isthisthe

endofprint?Books,newspapersmagazines...Readonflexibledigitalboards,alwaysconnectedWebsites&digitalnewspapersbecome“samething”Newspaperssmaller&niched,butnotextinctNewspapersbecomeexpensive,luxuryitemsAlifestyleitem:buyingan“experience”,partof“offtime”MEDIAMEDIA

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IMGSRC:WANN...otherdevelopmentsothertrendsfor

now&thefutureSemanticwebentrenchedArtificialintelligenceAttentioneconomyinfullswingSophisticatedpersonalisationofcontentLocation-based/mappingservicescommon&mobileVirtualisationeg:Amazon’sEC2&S3servicesWeb14.0???...;-)SRC:ReadWrite/Web,JaxonRice,MyblogForgetcapitalismandtheclassstruggle...thedigitalrevolutionischangingthingsfarmoredramaticallythanthehypemongerseverimagined...themov