SURVEY-RESEARCH-UMBC调查的研究的项目课件

1、SURVEY RESEARCHTopic #1Covered in considerable detail in Weisberg et al. textbookSURVEY RESEARCHTopic #1Survey ResearchQuantitative study of large human populations using these basic research operations:define the population to be studied;select a representative sample;measure (by means of interview

2、 questions) characteristics of the respondents in the sample;tabulate, crosstabulate, and otherwise analyze the sample data (using SPSS, etc.) to produce various sample statistics; andmake inferences from sample statistics to population parameters of interest.Survey ResearchQuantitative stTypes of S

3、urveysFake/spurious/recreational polls and surveys:straw/call-in/write-in or web based pollspropaganda polls (asking “biased” questions) sponsored by advocacy or interest groupspolitical persuasion disguised as polling (“push polls”)commercial selling disguised as pollingTypes of SurveysFake/spuriou

4、s/Types of Surveys (cont.)Legitimate commercial surveys Public (results released to the public)syndicated polls (starting in late 1930s)Gallup, Roper, Harris, etc. media polls (starting in the 1960s)pre-election tracking pollsexit polls Proprietary (contract research; results not publicly released)m

5、arket research (starting in 1920s)political consulting/polling for candidates, parties, and advocacy and interest groups (starting in the 1950s)Types of Surveys (cont.)LegitiTypes of Surveys (cont.)Non-commercial surveys Government (“statistical”) survey researchU.S. CensusCurrent Population Survey

6、(CPS)Rotating panel survey of 60,000 householdsSource of labor force size and unemployment dataVoter registration and turnout (but not vote choices and opinions)Annual Survey of Social Security and Medicare BeneficiariesNational Crime Victimization SurveyTypes of Surveys (cont.)Non-coTypes of Survey

7、s (cont.)Non-commercial surveys (cont.)Academic/scholarly/scientific surveysVoting studies (surveys vs. election data)“Columbia” (sociological) studies (1940s)local samplesextended panel surveysemphasizing groups affiliationsIndex of Political Disposition (IPP)Types of Surveys (cont.)Non-coTypes of

8、Surveys (cont.)Voting studies (cont.)“Michigan” (political/social psychological) studiesNational samplesLimited (pre- and post-election) panelsOccasional extended panels (four years)Emphasize opinions, attitudes, and orientation over group affiliationsParty Identification (Student Survey Q1 & Q2)Ame

9、rican National Election Studies (ANES)Social Science Data Archives Interuniversity Consortium for Social and Political Research (ICPSR) at University of MichiganEuropean Consortium for Political Research at University of Essex (UK)Types of Surveys (cont.)VotingIBM Punch CardIBM Punch CardOther Major

10、 (Ongoing) SurveysGeneral Social Survey (GSS), NORC (University of Chicago) Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), University of Michigan SRCCitizen Participation surveys (Sidney Verba and others)Long-Term Political Socialization Panel StudyParent-child pairs interviewed in 1965, 1973, 1982, and 201

11、9British, Canadian, German, etc., Election StudiesOther Major (Ongoing) SurveysGWhat Do (Political) Surveys (Purport to) Measure?voting intentions (and likelihood of voting) attitudes/opinions/preferences specific issues general orientations party ID, ideological placement, political trust/cynicismb

12、eliefs/perceptions/predictions/salience information/knowledgereported behavior did you vote? for whom? contribute $? attend meeting?job-seeking activityTV watching crime victimizationdemographicsWhat Do (Political) Surveys (PPreview of Data Collection MethodsSelf-administered “paper and pencil” or w

13、eb-based questionnaires Student Survey SCEQExit pollsTelephone interviewsTracking pollsPersonal interviewsANESCPS, GSS, PSID, etc.Closed-Form vs. Open-Ended QuestionsMultiple-choice test vs. “blue book” test SCEQ “scan sheets” vs. “blue sheets”Preview of Data Collection MetClosed-Form Questions (con

14、t.)Multiple-choice format: may beself-administered,telephone, orpersonal (ANES)Some people dont pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been VERY MUCH interested, SOMEWHAT interested or NOT MUCH interested in the political campaigns so far this year?1. V

15、ery much interested3. Somewhat interested5. Not much interested8. Dont know9. Refused0. NAClosed-Form Questions (cont.)MClosed-Form Questions (cont.)Agree / Disagree Format (ANES)“This country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on traditional family ties.”Do you AGREE STRONGL

16、Y, AGREE SOMEWHAT, NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE, DISAGREE SOMEWHAT, or DISAGREE STRONGLY with this statement?1. Agree strongly2. Agree somewhat3. Neither agree nor disagree4. Disagree somewhat5. Disagree strongly8. Dont know9. Refused0. NAClosed-Form Questions (cont.)AClosed-form Questions (cont.)Rati

17、ng Scale Format (ANES)Some people think the government should provide fewer services even in areas such as health and education in order to reduce spending. Suppose these people are at one end of a scale, at point 1. Other people feel it is important for the government to provide many more services

18、even if it means an increase in spending. Suppose these people are at the other end, at point 7. And, of course, some other people have opinions somewhere in between, at points 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.Where would you place YOURSELF on this scale, or havent you thought much about this?01. Govt should provide

19、 many fewer services02.03.04.05.06.07. Govt should provide many more services80. Havent thought much about this88. Dont know89. Refused00. NAClosed-form Questions (cont.)RClosed-form Questions (cont.)Rating Scale Format (cont.)Where would you place GEORGE W. BUSH on this issue?DO NOT PROBE DK1. Gove

20、rnment should provide many fewer services.6.7. Government should provide many more services8. Dont know9. Refused0. NANote: Randomize order of administration for Pres candidatesClosed-form Questions (cont.)RThermometer ScalePlease look at page 2 of the booklet. See Weisberg et al., p. 80Id li

21、ke to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news these days.Ill read the name of a person and Id like you to rate that person using something we call the feeling thermometer. Ratings between 50 degrees and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and

22、warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you dont feel favorable toward the person and that you dont care too much for that person. You would rate the person at the 50 degree mark if you dont feel particularly warm or cold toward the person.If we come to a person wh

23、ose name you dont recognize, you dont need to rate that person. Just tell me and well move on to the next one.Thermometer ScaleClosed-form Questions (cont.)Indices (composite measures)Trust in government (ANES)Index of respondents trust in government, built from responses to the following questions:

24、 (1) How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? (2) Do you think that people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or dont waste very much of it? (3) Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few bi

25、g interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all the people? (4) Do you think that quite a few of the people running the government are crooked or that not very many of them are? Those who rank low on this index were more likely to select the distrusting position for e

26、ach of these items. 1 Low 2 3 4 5 High 9 NAClosed-form Questions (cont.)IExperimenting with Closed-Form Questions (2019 ANES)IF R SELECTED FOR STANDARD VERSION: In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they werent registered, they were si

27、ck, or they just didnt have time. How about you-did you vote in the elections this November?1. Yes, voted5. No, didnt vote8. Dont know9. Refused0. NAIF R SELECTED FOR EXPERIMENTAL VERSION: In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they wer

28、ent registered, they were sick, or they just didnt have time. Which of the following statements best describes you: 1. I did not vote (in the election this November).2. I thought about voting this time, but didnt.3. I usually vote, but didnt this time.4. I am sure I voted8. Dont know9. Refused0. NAE

29、xperimenting with Closed-FormClosed-Form Questions (cont.)Closed-form questions produce pre-coded data.This is a major advantage,in same way that multiple-choice tests vs. essay exams can be quickly and reliably scored.Researchers can move quickly to tabulation and analysis.Student Survey (and SCEQ)

30、 answer sheets can be sent directly for scanning, producing an electronic data file.See next slide ANES (and other personal) interview sheets must be transcribed and then entered into electronic format (e.g., Excel spreadsheet or SPSS Data Editor screen) to create an electronic file.Closed-Form Ques

31、tions (cont.)CFor example, 2009 Student Survey DataFor example, 2009 Student SurvOpen-Ended Questions ANES: Party Likes/Dislikes Id like to ask you what you think are the good and bad points about the two NATIONAL PARTIES. Note: Randomize order of administration for partiesIs there anything in parti

32、cular that you LIKE about the Democratic party?IF R SAYS THERE IS SOMETHING R LIKES ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY:(What is that?)PROBE: ANYTHING ELSE YOU LIKE ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? UNTIL R SAYS NO.Is there anything in particular that you DONT LIKE about the Democratic party? Etc.Data: Number of respo

33、nsesBalance of positive vs. negative responsesContent of responsesOpen-Ended Questions ANES: ParData must be coded for quantitative analysisIs there anything in particular that you LIKE/DISLIKE about the Democratic/Republican party?0101 Traditional Democratic voter: always been a Democrat; just a De

34、mocrat; never been a Republican; just couldnt vote Republican0102 Traditional Republican voter: always been a Republican; just a Republican; never been a Democrat; just couldnt vote Democratic0111 Positive, personal, affective terms applied to party-good/nice people; patriotic; etc.0112 Negative, pe

35、rsonal, affective terms applied to party-bad/lazy people; lack of patriotism; etc.0121 Can trust them; they keep their promises; you know where they stand 0122 Cant trust them; they break their promises; you dont know where they stand0131 Party is well-organized, sticks together, is united; members

36、are disciplined; votes party line0132 Party is poorly-organized/really two parties/divided/factionalized; members not disciplined; doesnt vote party line0133 Party is (more) representative/good cross-section of the country; encompasses a wider variety of views/people; is more at the center of the co

37、untrys views ETCData must be coded for quantitFrom SETUPS Codebook: Handout #1B in Course Pack or from Course WebsiteV30MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL PROBLEM “What do you think is the single most important problem facing this country?” (Responses have been categorized into the five groups listed below.)1

38、Economy2 Foreign affairs3 Social welfare4 Crime, public order5 Other9 NAIn the actual ANES survey, this is an open-ended question with hundreds of code categories.Data from such open-ended questions usually is not available until long after data from closed form questions is available.Problem with c

39、omparable closed-form questions From SETUPS Codebook: Handout2019 EXIT POLLSimilar closed-form questions can have serious problems.Was 2019 election “all about values,” as the media claimed?Exit PollQuestion ETaxes 5%Education 4%Iraq 15%Terrorism 19%Economy/Jobs 20%Moral values 22%Health care 8%Omit

40、 7%2019 EXIT POLL2000 EXIT POLLQuestion DWorld Affairs 12%Med/Rx 7%Health Care 8%Econ/Jobs18%Taxes14%Education14%Soc Security14%Omit13%2000 EXIT POLLQuestion DesignSee Weisberg et al., Chapter 4Question wording can be blatantly biased “pushing” respondent to a preferred responses, as in propaganda p

41、ollsDo you favor murdering innocent babies in the womb?Should government officials have the power to interfere with womens personal decisions?Question DesignSee Weisberg etQuestion DesignEven without manifest bias, phrasing can hugely affect the distribution of responses, especially when many respon

42、dents are ambivalent about the issue.Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam?Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam and allow the Vietnamese to settle things among themselves?Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam, even if thi

43、s means that the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese or “the Communists” take over?If the full House votes to impeach Bill Clinton, then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or not?Better to resign: 60%If the full House votes to send impeachment articles to

44、 the Senate for a trial, then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or not?Better to resign: 43%Question DesignEven without maQuestion Design (cont.)Unbalanced vs. balanced formatShould ILLEGAL immigrants be prosecuted and deported for being in the U.S.

45、 illegally, or shouldnt they? Should be deported69%Should not be deported24%Unsure 7%If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually

46、 apply for legal status. OR, They should be deported back to their native country.Chance to keep jobs etc. 62%Deported 33%Unsure 5%CBS News/New York Times Poll. May 18-23, 2019Question Design (cont.)UnbalanQuestion Design (cont.)Unbalanced vs. balanced formatANES through 1960:“If cities and towns ar

47、ound the country need help to build more schools, the government in Washington ought to give them the money they need. Do you have an opinion on this or not?” ANES from 1964 onwards:“Some people think that the government in Washington should help towns and cities provide education for grade and high

48、 school children; others think that this should be handled by states and local communities. Have you been interested enough in this to favor one side over the other?”Also recall “government services” question.Question Design (cont.)UnbalanQuestion Design (cont.)Ambiguity (see Weisberg, p. 85)“How ma

49、ny public officials do you think are a little bit dishonest most, some, a few, or none?” ANES, earlier versionMany respondents answered “few or none,” but evidently because they though some or most public officials were a whole lot dishonest.“Do you think that that quite a few people running the gov

50、ernment are crooked, not very many are, or do you think hardly any of them are?” ANES, current versionQuestion Design (cont.)AmbiguiQuestion Design (cont.)Might the Holocaust Have Never Happened?Asked in a “wrong” confusing way (November 1992) Question: Does it seem possible or does it seem impossib

51、le to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?Possible it never happened22%Impossible it never happened65%DK12%Asked in a “right” less confusing way way (March 1994) Question: Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or do you feel certa

52、in that it happened?Possible it never happened 1%Certain it happened 91%DK 8%Source: Surveys by the Roper Organization, reported in Public Perspective Question Design (cont.)Might tQuestion Design (cont.)Closed-form option order (cf. ballot order)Which candidate did you prefer for the 2019 Democrati

53、c presidential nomination?(1)Howard Dean(2)John Edwards(3)Richard Gephardt(4)John Kerry(5)Other candidate; dont know; no preferenceWhich candidate did you prefer for the 2019 Democratic presidential nomination?(1)John Kerry(2)Richard Gephardt(3)John Edwards (4)Howard Dean (5)Other candidate; dont kn

54、ow; no preferenceQuestion Design (cont.)Question Design (cont.)Response biasPolitical Efficacy Index Index of respondents sense of “political efficacy,” built from responses to the following questions: Do you agree or disagree with the statement, People like me dont have any say about what the gover

55、nment does? Do you agree or disagree with the statement, I dont think public officials care much what people like me think? Do you agree or disagree with the statement, Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me cant really understand whats going on? Do all the peopl

56、e who “agree” with all these statements really have a low sense of political efficacy, or are some of them just “agreeable” (i.e., tend to say they agree with any statement read to them)?Question Design (cont.)ResponsQuestionnaire DesignThese considerations point to the importance of pre-testing, su

57、rvey experiments, and pilot studies:Advantage of using standard questions (e.g., POLI Student Surveys)How long will survey take?Question order can affect the distribution of responses to questions (issue preference and Presidential approval in 1984).Question context (i.e., the immediately preceding

58、questions) can affect distribution of responses (e.g., Q4 in PS #1B).Early questions should reassure the respondent as to the legitimate and non-threatening nature of the questionnaire.“Controversial” questions should come last.What do you think is the most “controversial” standard question?Length o

59、f questionnaire.Questionnaire DesignThese consSurvey Data Collection MethodsWeisberg et.al., Chapter 5Self-administered questionnaires (written or web-based)Telephone Surveys (entirely oral)Personal interviewing (face-to-face and almost entirely oral)Survey Data Collection MethodsSelf-Administered Q

60、uestionnairesVaried settingscontrolled (student survey, SCEQ, exit polls)distributed and returned laterMailed, completed (by whom?), and returned by mailCharacteristicscheaplow response/completion rate (if returned later)probably closed form questions onlyshort questionnaire onlyliteracy problemsSel