美国机械行业：第盈利前的评级变化

1、US MachineryRating Changes Ahead Of Q4 EarningsNorth America Equity Research10 January 2019Our coverage universe underperformed the broader market in 2018 (down 24% vs. the 500 down 4%) as investors grew more concerned about the potential a recession led rising interest rates top a slowdown in growt

2、h. As a result, the group looks “cheap” relative to the S&P 500 and believe that the sell-off has been overdone a number stocks in our coverage. That we believe that Eurozone growth is one the biggest overlooked) risks facing and suggest that investors minimize exposure to companies with an outsized

3、 EU mix. We will co-host a call on Tuesday, January 15th at 10am ET with Steve Tusa and colleagues in Europe Japan; please contact us or your JPM salesperson for dial-indetails.1Upgrading OSK and TRMB to Overweight on valuation. was 32% in 2018 and the stock is trading at 9x consensus FY19 EPS, whic

4、h looks compelling given its high exposure to NA non-residential construction coupled with good visibility into its Defense business on JLTV production; our $80 PT is based on a sum-of-the-parts (10.5x our aggregate 2019E EPS) and implies 19% upside. TRMB was down 26% in 2018 on fears of cycle peak

5、in NA trucks and oil/gas as well as a general rotation out of technology-related/momentum stocks. We believe the sell-off is overdone; our $40 PT (18.5x 2019E non-GAAP EPS) implies 16%upside.Downgrading PCAR, WBC and ITW to Underweight on EU exposure. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped sharply t

6、hrough 2018 (from 60.6 in Dec17 to 51.4 in Dec18), driven primarily by the slowdown in the PMI 63.3 to 51.5 in the same period). Should recent weak orders and deteriorating business sentiment in the region (Germany in particular) extend into 2019, we would expect weaker demand and freight activity t

7、o weigh on earnings; that said, acknowledge that the new EU-wide emissions testing regime is to offset broader IP weakness in the term, with automotive production expected to recover in (supported by orders growth in December). We recommend investors avoid stocks with outsized exposure to the region

8、; are lowering our estimates WBC and ITW to reflect our expectation for weaker demand in the EU. Our $54 PT for PCARrepresents9x our 2019 EPS estimate; our $98 PT for WBC represents 12x our 2019E EPS; and our $120 PT for ITW represents 15x our 2019E EPS.Top picks into Q4 and 2019. In general, the ri

9、sks Q4 earnings as skewed more to the upside at current valuations and suggest investors be long CAT, ETN, TEX and OSK on strong construction fundamentals. From a longer term perspective, our top pick remains CAT as we believe that Resource business is still in the early stages of recovery and shoul

10、d support out- year earnings growth as well as opportunities shareholder friendly capital allocation; our $188 PT for CAT represents 15x “mid-cycle” EPS in2019.MachineryAnn Duignan AC(1-212) 622-0381 HYPERLINK mailto:ann.duignan ann.duignanBloomberg JPMA DUIGNAN Thomas Simonitsch(1-212) 622-2250 HYP

11、ERLINK mailto:thomas.simonitsch thomas.simonitschAbdul Tambal, CFA(1-212) 622-0302 HYPERLINK mailto:abdul.tambal abdul.tambalJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC1 On January 3, 2018, MiFID II came into effect. Therefore, you may only be eligible to participate in this event if you have the appropriate level o

12、f access to J.P. Morgan research. Please check your eligibility before participating/accessing.See page 65 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fir

13、m may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Equity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price ($) Rat Curing PrevCur Price TEnd Datear

14、get PrevEnd DateActuant CorpATU US1,362.2122.32UWn/c19.00Dec-1923.00Dec-19AGCO Corp.AGCO US4,816.4461.20Nn/c60.00Dec-19n/cn/cAllison Transmission HoldingsALSN US6,223.5046.10UWn/c45.00Dec-19n/cn/cCaterpillar Inc.CAT US78,083.84130.27OWn/c188.00Dec-19n/cn/cCNH IndustrialCNHI US13,091.129.64Nn/c11.00D

15、ec-19n/cn/cCummins IncCMI US22,173.91137.47Nn/c147.00Dec-19n/cn/cEaton Corp.ETN US29,937.5169.06OWn/c92.00Dec-19n/cn/cDeere & Co.DE US50,512.21154.33Nn/c154.00Dec-19n/cn/cIllinois Tool WorksITW US43,325.67129.99UWN120.00Dec-19136.00Dec-19Kennametal Inc.KMT US2,952.5535.49Nn/c39.00Dec-1943.00Dec-19Ma

16、nitowoc Co.MTW US570.1116.03Nn/c21.00Dec-1924.00Dec-19MilacronMCRN US969.7413.47Nn/c15.50Dec-1918.00Dec-19Navistar IntlNAV US2,971.0229.98Nn/c28.00Dec-19n/cn/cOshkosh Corp.OSK US4,882.5366.20OWN80.00Dec-1983.00Dec-19PACCAR Inc.PCAR US20,608.4458.63UWN54.00Dec-1963.00Dec-19Parker HannifinPH US20,681.

17、51156.25OWn/c185.00Dec-19n/cn/cTerex CorpTEX US2,143.9329.09OWn/c42.00Dec-19n/cn/cTrimble IncTRMB US8,602.1734.34OWN40.00Dec-1941.00Dec-19WABCOWBC US5,790.36109.72UWN98.00Dec-19115.00Dec-19Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 09 Jan 19.Table of Co

18、ntents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Machinery Sector Valuation4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Fundamentals By Region7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 US Shipment Data Largely Positive But SlowingIn Q4TD8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Automotive Production Forecasts RevisedDownAgain10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Bright Spot In US:Inf

19、rastructureSpending12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Oil Prices Likely To Weigh On2019Activity13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 China: Excavator Sales Moderate, Trucks SteadyInQ414 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Limited VisibilityInAgriculture16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Used Equipment Pricing: A Good Leading Indicator19 HYPE

20、RLINK l _bookmark9 Price/Cost Remains A Headwind But With Less Investor HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Focus HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Earnings Summary25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 EarningsSchedule26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 ActuantCorp27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 AGCOCorp.28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 AllisonTransmis

21、sionHoldings29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 CaterpillarInc.30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 CNHIndustrial31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 CumminsInc32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Eaton Corp.33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Deere & Co.34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Illinois Tool Works35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 KennametalInc.36 HYP

22、ERLINK l _bookmark22 Manitowoc Co.37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Milacron38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 NavistarIntl39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Oshkosh Corp.40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 PACCARInc.41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 ParkerHannifin42 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Terex Corp43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 TrimbleInc

23、44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 WABCO45Machinery Sector ValuationThe S&P the in 24% S&P 500 MTW had the and in & gas up Of the DE its in CAT was 18% and ITW The was the in and the of The group 23% in The was 20% as and the end of The was 18% in as US to be by on US Table 1: Annual Total Shareholder Retur

24、nsCoverage Universe Relative PerformanceTotal Shareholder Returns20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019YTDS&PS&P 500 Index26%15%2%16%32%14%1%12%22%-4%3.2%S&P 500 Machinery Index40%54%-10%17%27%4%-15%34%42%-15%3.7%Construction & EnginesCAT33%69%-1%2%3%3%-23%42%75%-18%2.5%CMI75%143%-19%25%33%4%-

25、37%61%33%-22%2.9%MTW17%32%-29%72%49%-5%-30%84%64%-62%8.5%OSK321%-5%-39%39%70%-2%-18%68%42%-32%8.0%TEX14%57%-56%108%50%-33%-33%73%54%-42%5.5%TRMB17%58%9%38%16%-24%-19%41%35%-19%4.3%Construction & Engines - Average80%59%-23%47%37%-9%-27%61%51%-32%5.3%Construction & Engines - Median25%58%-24%38%41%-4%-

26、27%65%48%-27%4.9%Diversified IndustrialsATU-2%44%-15%23%31%-26%-12%8%-2%-17%6.3%ETN33%64%-12%29%44%-8%-21%34%22%-10%0.6%ITW41%14%-10%34%41%15%0%35%39%-22%2.6%KMT20%55%-6%11%32%-30%-45%68%58%-30%6.6%MCRNNANANANANANA-37%49%3%-38%13.3%PH29%63%-10%14%54%2%-23%48%45%-24%4.8%Diversified Industrials - Aver

27、age24%48%-11%22%41%-9%-23%40%27%-23%5.7%Diversified Industrials - Median29%55%-10%23%41%-8%-22%41%30%-23%5.6%Truck and Truck ComponentsALSNNANANA-10%38%25%-22%33%30%3%5.0%CMI75%143%-19%25%33%4%-37%61%33%-22%2.9%NAV81%50%-35%-43%75%-12%-74%255%37%-39%15.5%PCAR29%60%-32%25%35%18%-27%38%15%-15%2.6%WBC6

28、5%136%-29%50%43%12%-2%4%35%-25%2.2%Truck and Components - Average62%97%-29%10%45%9%-32%78%30%-20%5.6%Truck and Components - Median70%98%-31%25%39%8%-32%50%34%-24%2.7%Ag MachineryAGCO37%57%-15%14%21%-23%1%29%25%-21%9.9%CNHINANANANA33%-27%-13%30%56%-30%4.7%DE45%56%-5%14%8%-1%-11%39%55%-3%3.5%Ag Machin

29、ery - Average41%56%-10%14%21%-17%-8%32%45%-18%6.0%Ag Machinery - Median41%56%-10%14%21%-23%-11%30%55%-21%4.7%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganThe S&P Machinery Index is now trading at 11.9x 2019 EPS (vs. 3-year average of 17.8x), 1.8 turns below the S&P 500 index. The construction group is trading at 9

30、.2x 2019 EPS (vs. 3-year average forward P/E of 17.8x), the multiple for TEX having compressed significantly from 1-year average. The diversified industrial group is trading at 12.9x 2019 EPS (vs. 3-year average 17.0 x). The truck stocks are trading at 9.8x 2019 EPS (vs. 3-year average 18.2x). The a

31、gricultural equipment stocks are trading at 12.6x 2019 EPS (vs. 3-year average19.4x).Table 2: Multiples Have Compressed On Trade/Inverted Yield CurveFearsTSR %Forward P/E Multiple 01/09/20193Y2YAvg1Y20192020S&PS&P 5003.2%17.2x17.3x16.6x13.7x12.7xS&P Machinery3.7%17.8x17.4x15.0 x11.9x11.1xConstructio

32、n & EnginesCaterpillar Inc2.5%20.9x18.6x13.4x10.2x9.4xCummins Inc2.9%14.0 x13.7x10.8x8.9x9.3xManitowoc Co8.5%NANANA13.4x9.5xOshkosh Corp8.0%16.1x15.8x12.4x9.4x8.8xTerex Corp5.5%20.1x20.2x12.9x8.4x7.8xAverage (ex-MTW)4.7%17.8x17.1x12.4x9.2x8.8xTrimble4.3%21.5x22.2x20.0 x16.2x14.7xDiversified Industri

33、alsActuant Corp-A6.3%21.4x22.1x21.2x18.6x16.0 xEaton Corp Plc0.6%14.9x15.2x14.5x11.8x10.9xIllinois Tool Works2.6%19.7x20.2x18.6x16.1x15.2xKennametal Inc6.6%17.9x16.3x13.5x10.7x10.5xMilacron Holding13.3%10.2x10.3x10.0 x6.9x7.2xParker Hannifin4.8%17.6x17.4x15.5x13.2x12.2xAverage5.7%17.0 x16.9x15.5x12.

34、9x12.0 xTruck & Truck ComponentsAllison Transmission5.0%11.9x11.6x9.2x8.7x9.5xCummins Inc2.9%14.0 x13.7x10.8x8.9x9.3xNavistar Intl15.5%32.6x27.4x12.9x8.3x11.0 xPACCAR Inc2.6%14.3x14.1x11.3x9.5x10.6xWABCO Holdings Inc2.2%17.8x18.1x16.0 x13.5x12.7xAverage5.6%18.2x17.0 x12.1x9.8x10.6xAgricultural Machi

35、neryAGCO Corp9.9%19.4x18.5x15.3x13.2x11.6xDeere & Co3.5%18.7x17.2x14.3x13.3x12.3xCNH Industrial4.7%20.0 x19.6x16.0 x11.3x9.9xAverage6.0%19.4x18.4x15.2x12.6x11.3xSource: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganOur coverage universe is trading at 11.8x 2019 EPS while the average forecast EPS growth is 12%. In our view,

36、 a number of stocks appear oversold including small cap names like TEX and OSK, and truck exposed companies like NAV; each is trading at a forward P/E multiple below the group average despite expectations of higher than average earnings growth.Figure 1: 2019 EPS Growth Estimates vs. Forward P/E Mult

37、iplesEarnings Growth vs. Forward P/E Multiple (2019)35%TEX (7x, 45%)1 St. DevMTW (13x, 181%)20192019EPSGrowth(JPMe)OSKAGCO DEKMTPHTRMBAvg. 2019 EPS Growth5%MCRNALSNCMICATPCARETN CNHIWBCITWATUAvg. Fwd P/E Multiple-15%Avg. Fwd P/E Multiple-25%3x5x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21x23xForward P/E MultipleSource: Bl

38、oomberg, J.P. Morgan estimatesFundamentals By RegionThe ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.1 in December, down from 59.3 in November; the New Orders component was 51.1 in December, down 11.0-pts from62.1 in November (and down 16.3-pts YoY). While the data suggests that the pace of economic growth m

39、oderated significantly in Q4, the index has now remained above 50 (signaling expansion) for 36 consecutive months. The China Markit PMI was 49.7 in December (down 0.5-pts MoM and down 1.8-pts YoY), signaling the first month of contraction since May17. The Eurozone Markit PMI index came inat51.4 in D

40、ecember (down 0.4-pts MoM and down 9.2-pts YoY) and down from its earlier peak of 60.1.Figure 2: US ISM New Orders Index At 51.1 In Dec18US ISM New Orders Figure 3: US ISM Manufacturing Composite Index At 54.1 In Dec18US ISM Manufacturing Composite Index7065706060Index LevelIndex Level55Index LevelI

41、ndex Level50504540403035202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Source: Bloomberg, ISM, J.P. Morgan302006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Source: Bloomberg, ISM, J.P. MorganFigure 4: China PMI Index At 49.7In Dec18Figure 5: Eurozone PMI Index At 5

42、1.4 InDec18China Markit PMI70Eurozone PMI7060Index LevelIndex Level50Index LevelIndex Level4030202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Source: Bloomberg, ISM, J.P. Morgan202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Source: Bloomberg, ISM, J.P. MorganUS

43、Shipment Data Largely Positive But Slowing In Q4TDFigure 6: HD Truck Shipments Up 10% In Q4TD; Up 13% In 2018 YTDHeavy Duty Truck Shipments - Not Seasonally AdjustedFigure 7: In Q4TD; Up 11% In 2018 YTD10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0004Q0004Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q

44、104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q16Heavy Duty Truck Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoY Change4Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q1680%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%4Q174QTD18-60%4Q174QTD1814,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0004Q0004Q00Construction Machinery Shipments - Not Seasonally Adjusted50%40%30%20%10

45、%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%4Q174QTD18-50%4Q174QTD184Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q16Construction Machinery Shipments(NSA, $MM)YoY ChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganFigure 8: Farm Machinery Shipments Up 5%

46、 In Q4TD; Up 19% In 2018 YTDFarm Machinery Shipments - Not Seasonally Adjusted14,000100%Figure 9: Oil & Gas Equipment Has Been Volatile; Down 3% In Q4TD; Up 2% In 2018 YTDOil Field & Gas Machinery Shipments - Not Seasonally Adjusted12,00010,00080%60%40%20%0%-20%9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0

47、001,00060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%4Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104

48、Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD18Farm Machinery Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoY ChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganOil Field & Gas Machinery Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoY ChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganFigure 10: Electrical Equipment Shipments Up 5% In Q418TD; Up 5% In 2018 YTDElectrical Equipment

49、 Shipments - Not Seasonally AdjustedFigure 11: Electrical Lighting Shipments Flat In Q418TD; Down 2% In 2018 YTDElectrical Lighting Equipment Shipments - Not Seasonally Adjusted12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00020%15%10%5%0%-10%-15%-20%4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050020%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%

50、-25%4Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q

51、154Q164Q174QTD18Electrical Equipment Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoY ChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganElectrical Lighting Equipment Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoY ChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganFigure 12: Turbine/Power Shipments Up 7% In Q418TD; Up 8% In 2018 YTDEngines, Turbines & Power Systems

52、Shipments - Not Seasonally Adjusted16,00040%Figure 13: Industrial Machinery Shipments; Up 3% In Q418TD; Up 2% In 2018 YTDIndustrial Machinery Shipments - Not Seasonally Adjusted14,00030%14,00030%12,00020%12,00020%10,00010%10,0008,0006,00010%0%8,0006,0000%-10%4,000-10%4,000-20%2,000-20%2,000-30%4Q004

53、Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD184Q004Q014Q024Q034Q044Q054Q064Q074Q084Q094Q104Q114Q124Q134Q144Q154Q164Q174QTD1

54、8Engines, Trubines & Power Systems Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoYChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganIndustrial Machinery Shipments(NSA,$MM)YoYChangeSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. MorganAutomotive Production Forecasts Revised Down AgainIHS has steadily lowered its 2018 and 2019 automotive production f

55、orecasts over the past several months. The most recent estimate as of mid-December for 2018 global automotive production is 94.68 million units, down 0.5% from the November estimate and down 1.8% from September. Its December outlook for 2019 global production is 95.98 million units, implying 1.4% Yo

56、Y growth (vs. +2.0% in its September forecast). In North America, IHS lowered its 2018 production estimate to16.99 million units in December (down 0.4% from the September forecast); its December outlook for 2019 production in North America is 16.97 million units, implying a 0.1% YoY decline (vs. gro

57、wth of 0.3% in its September forecast).Figure 14: IHS Global Auto Production Forecasts For 2018 & 2019IHS Global Auto Produciton Forecast Progression99,54299,00599,54299,00598,34597,70397,14496,86096,89996,44595,85195,97995,17694,67899,00098,000Units In Thousands97,000Units In Thousands96,00095,0009

58、4,000Figure 15: IHS NA Auto Production Forecasts For 2018 & 2019IHS NA Auto Produciton Forecast Progression17,36917,18217,36917,18217,19517,154 17,14717,14517,11417,05717,01716,98816,99116,97417,300Units In Thousands17,200Units In Thousands17,10017,00016,90093,00016,80092,000Jul18Aug18Sep18Oct18Nov1

59、82018 201916,700Jul18Aug18Sep18Oct18Nov18Dec182018 2019Source: IHS estimates, J.P. MorganSource: IHS estimates, J.P. MorganIn Europe, IHS lowered its 2018 production estimate to 21.99 million units in December (down 1.6% from the September forecast); its December outlook for 2019 EU production is 22

60、.23 million units, implying 1.1% YoY growth (vs. +1.3% in its September forecast). In China, IHS lowered its 2018 production estimate to 27.27 million units in December (down 3.7% from the September forecast); its December outlook for 2019 production in China is 27.88 million units, implying 2.2% Yo