Horver住房监测：合并风险评估

1、Horvers Housing MonitorAssessing 2019 Comp Risk for HD, LOW and FNDNorth America Equity Research14 January 2019This monthly report details the key metrics that we follow to gauge the housing market, including: 1) spending patterns, 2) sales trends, 3) availability/pricing,4) consumer credit, wages,

2、and disposable income, and 5) mortgage resets, equity withdrawals, and applications (20 different indicators in total).Assessing the risk for HD, LOW and FND consensus 2019 comps. In summary, most highly correlated forward indicators to HD, LOW and FND comps (GDP, home prices, turnover), along with

3、key commodity deflation, suggest a slower comp trend in 2019. This also jives with flattening share of wallet/PFRI and slowing category sales since 2017 (and expected moderating retail sales growth overall next year). Taken together, we believe this biases HDs 2019 comps in line with the current 4.5

4、% consensus, with LOW potentially at risk in the 50-100-bp range vs. the 3.2% consensus. This assumes moderate share gains for HD (100 bps, similar to the trend) and modest share losses for LOW (-70 bps, which represents improvement vs. -200e in 2018). On FND, we remain below the Street in 2019 at 5

5、.4% vs. the 7.2% consensus.Existing and pending home sales continue to fall for 11 months consecutively; +MSD pricing trend starts to moderate. Existing home sales were -6.7% YOY in November but up 1.9% sequentially, representing the eleventh consecutive YOY decline. Pending home sales (which typica

6、lly lead existing by 2-3 months) have been down YOY for 11 months, with November -7.7% YOY and -0.7% sequentially. See Figures 6 and 9. HD and LOW are 70% correlated to both existing home sales and pricing on a 2-3 quarter lag, although there is also a solid correlation to GDP growth, and JPM econom

7、ist Michael Feroli is forecasting 2.3% in 2019 vs. 2.8%e in 2018. Pricing remains strong (with indices up 5%), but extrapolating recent trends suggests a flat pricing environment in 2019. See Figures 13-15.Recent silver lining: mortgage rates drop to lowest level since August. Last week, the 30-year

8、 fixed mortgage rate declined to start 2019 at 4.51%, the lowest level since August of last year. Key housing metrics for HD and LOW (i.e., turnover and pricing) tend to be correlated to mortgage rates, as this drives affordability (and thus the stocks react to changes in rates).Revolving credit sur

9、passes 08 peaks. In October, revolving credit was +2.8% YOY and +0.6% sequentially, reaching $1.04T compared to July 2008s peak of$1.02T. While revolving credit recovered modestly beginning in early 2012 through 2015 (2.2% YOY), we have seen a significant pick-up in the past two years with an averag

10、e of +4.8% YOY since January 2017. Note: revolving credit is used for more discretionary purposes vs. non-revolving credit (55% student and 40% auto loans). See Figure 16.The JCHS leading indicator of remodeling activity was revised up for 2H19 (now expecting a decade-high 7.7% YOY in 4Q18 vs. 7.3%

11、previously), though the growth rate is expected to moderate to still above-average growth of 6.6% by 3Q19. See Figure 3. We expect an updated release later next week.Retailing/Broadlines & Hardlines Christopher Horvers, CFA AC(1-212) 622-1316 HYPERLINK mailto:christopher.horvers christopher.horversB

12、loomberg JPMA HORVERS Tori K Bertschy(1-212) 622-0826 HYPERLINK mailto:tori.bertschy tori.bertschyTami Zakaria, CFA(1-212) 622-9888 HYPERLINK mailto:tami.zakaria tami.zakariaC. Jerry Sullivan(1-212) 622-5928 HYPERLINK mailto:jerry.sullivan jerry.sullivanJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 23 for anal

13、yst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this

14、report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Table of ContentsTOC o 1-1 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Figure 1: Quarterly Private Residential Investment Share of Nominal GDP3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Figure 2: Home Improvement Share of Wallet: Sales as a % of Total

15、Retail Sales Ex. Auto4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Figure 3: Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Figure 4: AHAM Core 6 Shipment Index6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Figure 5: Lumber and Copper YOY Prices vs. HDs Inflation Impact to Comp7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Figure 6: Existing

16、 Single Family Home Sales8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Figure 7: Total Housing Turnover and Total Households9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Figure 8: Housing Starts Single Family10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Figure 9: NAR Pending Home Sales11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Figure 10: Home Ownership Rate12 HYPERLINK l _

17、TOC_250009 Figure 11: Months Supply Total Existing Single Family Homes13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Figure 12: NAR Housing Affordability Index14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Figure 13: FHFA House Price Index15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Figure 14: NAR Median Sales Price Existing Single Family Homes16 HYPERLINK

18、 l _TOC_250005 Figure 15: Case-Shiller Housing Price Index17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Figure 16: YOY Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Figure 17: MOM and YOY Changes in Wage and Salary Disbursements19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Figure 18: Mortgage Debt vs. CC Debt as a % of

19、 Annualized DPI20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Figure 19: Mortgage Bankers Association Application Volume Index21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Figure 20: Mortgage Credit Availability Index vs. YOY growth22Spending Patterns PFRI Private Residential Investment: Share of Nominal GDP (SA, %)3.53.02.52.03Q18: 3.9%

20、4.0Average: 4.3%6.56.05.55.04.51Q06: 6.6%7.0Figure 1: Quarterly Private Residential Investment Share of Nominal GDPSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Private residential investment as a percentage of GDP has improved 280 bps from all-time lows to 3.9% in 3Q18.On a YOY basis, private residential inv

21、estments share was up 10 bps.Sequentially, private residential investment as a percentage of GDP was flat. We believe this metric will continue to recover as consumers maintain and invest in their homes in a positive macro backdrop (e.g., home turnover and prices, consumers spending, and still recov

22、ering share of wallet).Note: The average share of GDP since 1978 is 4.3%.Spending Patterns Share of WalletFigure 2: Home Improvement Share of Wallet: Sales as a % of Total Retail Sales Ex. AutoHome Improvement Sales as a % of Retail Sales Ex. Auto8.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%November: 8.1%9.0%Average 8.6

23、%11.0%10.5%10.0%9.5%Source: U.S. Census Bureau.“Home improvement” sales as a percentage of total retail sales has declined about 245 bps from a peak of 10.6% in Feb 2006 to 8.1% in November.YOY home improvement spending share is down 11 bps. We expect YOY growth to continue to increase, on average,

24、as fundamentals stabilize and big ticket spending remains solid.Sequentially, home improvement sales penetration was down 4 bps.Note: The average “home improvement” share since January 1992 (when the data first became available) is 8.6%.For further detail on share of wallet for Home Improvement and

25、other categories in retail please refer to our HYPERLINK /research/content/GPS-2280270-0 Deep Dive from March.Leading Indicator of Remodeling ActivityFigure 3: Leading Indicator of Remodeling ActivitySource: JCHS.The JCHS Leading Indicator of Repair and Remodel Activity projects that homeowner spend

26、ing on improvements and repairs will approach $350B for 2018 and will now moderate to 6.6% by 3Q19 vs. 7.7% in 4Q18.3Q18 came in slightly better at 7.5% vs. estimated at 7.4%.LIRA releases its next forecast on Thursday, January 17th.Core 6 AHAM Data14,00020.0%13,00015.0%10.0%12,0005.0%11,0000.0%10,0

27、00-5.0%9,000-10.0%8,000-15.0%7,000-20.0%6,000-25.0%AHAM Core 6YOY ChangeCore 6 ShipmentsYOY ChangeFigure 4: AHAM Core 6 Shipment IndexSource: DLX.Note: Quarterly data is aligned with HD/LOW Jan calendar year ends.Core 6 major appliances shipment data for fiscal 3Q totaled 12,342 units, down 2.3% ove

28、r the previous year vs. -5.5% in 2Q.Trends were -2.9% YOY in November following September and Octobers+1.1% and 3.8% decline, respectively.WHR guided 2-3% industry growth for 2018 (vs. 4-6% last year), and Electrolux is expecting full year market growth in NA of 2-3% (same as last year).Key Commodit

29、y InflationFigure 5: Lumber and Copper YOY Prices vs. HDs Inflation Impact to Comp1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18EHD InflationLumber YOYCopper YOY-0.50%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%0.00%0.0%-10.0%0.50%30.0%20.0%10.0%1.00%50.0%40.0%1.50%60.0%So

30、urce: Bloomberg, Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.Lumber prices (using the LB1 COMDTY on Bloomberg) are -26% so far in 4Q18 compared to -2% in 3Q.Copper prices (using the HG1 COMDTY on Bloomberg) are -13% so far in 4Q18 compared to -10% in 3Q.Lumber and copper prices are 70% correlated to HDs

31、inflation since 1Q14.Unit Sales Trends EHSFigure 6: Existing Single Family Home Sales7,0006,000Conventional 30-Year Mortgage Rates and Single Family Existing Home Salesr2 = -50%12.010.05,0008.04,0006.03,0004.0Mortgage rates remainnear historic lows.2,0001,000Mortgage rates remain near historic lows.

32、2.000.0Existing Home SalesConventional 30-Year Mortgage RateSource: National Association of Realtors.November existing single family home sales (SAAR) of 4,710K are up 54% from the bottom in July 2010 but 26% off of the all-time high of 6,340K homes in September 2005.YOY, existing home sales decreas

33、ed 6.7% from 5,050K last year.Sequentially, EHS was up 1.9%.Existing home sales data is measured when contracts are closed. There is a50% historical correlation between 30-year mortgage rates and unit existing home sales. Also, historically HD and LOW comps have been 75% correlated to existing home

34、sales YOY on a 2-3 quarter lag.Unit Sales Trends Housing TurnoverFigure 7: Total Housing Turnover and Total Households9,000October -6% YOY120,0008,000115,0007,000110,000Total Housing Turnover6,000Total Households105,0005,0004,000100,00095,0003,0002,00090,0001,00085,000080,000Source: National Associa

35、tion of Realtors and U.S. Census Bureau.Total Housing TurnoverTotal HouseholdsOctober housing turnover (new and existing single-family units) of 5,164 units is up 54% from the July 2010 low, but down 32% from the all-time peak in July 2005.YOY, total housing turnover is down 6%.Sequentially, housing

36、 turnover is down 0.3%.Note: The continued increase in total households over the past 30 years provides support to the number of homes sold in the U.S., in our view.Unit Sales Trends Housing StartsFigure 8: Housing Starts Single Family1,9251,8251,7251,6251,5251,4251,3251,2251,1251,025925November -13

37、% YOY825725625525425325Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units)Source: U.S. Census Bureau.November single family starts were 824K, up 133% from early 2009, but down 55% from the peak in January 2006. Growth in housing has continued to improve since bottoming in 2009.YOY, single family starts decre

38、ased 13%.Sequentially, single family starts decreased 5% from 864K last month.Unit Sales Trends Pending Home SalesFigure 9: NAR Pending Home SalesPending Home Sales50.075.0100.0November: -7.7% YOY-0.7% Seq.125.0150.0Source: National Association of Realtors.Pending home sales were 101.4 in November,

39、20% off the April 2005 peak, but have recovered 33% off of previous lows.On a YOY basis, pending home sales were down 7.7% after Octobers 6.7% decrease.Sequentially, pending home sales were down 0.7% from the previous month.Note: Pending home sales data is typically a two-to-three month precursor to

40、 existing home sale demand.Home OwnershipFigure 10: Home Ownership Rate70.0%Historical Mean: 65%69.0%68.0%67.0%66.0%65.0%64.0%63.0%3Q18: 64.4%62.0%61.0%60.0%59.0%Home Ownership RateSource: U.S. Census Bureau.Home ownership rates have declined 490 bps from the 2Q04 high of 69.2% to 64.4% and are slig

41、htly below the historical mean of 65.5%.Home ownership is up 40 bps from 63.9% in 3Q17.Sequentially, the rate of home ownership was up 9 bps compared to the previous quarter.Housing Availability Existing HomesFigure 11: Months Supply Total Existing Single Family Homes14.012.010.08.06.0November: +11.

42、4% YOY3.9 MOS4.02.0NAR Months Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)Source: National Association of Realtors.Novembers supply of total existing homes was down 9.3% sequentially at 3.9 months. For reference, the July 10 peak of 11.9 compares to the all-time high of13.8 in October 1982

43、.YOY, this months supply of total existing single family homes was up 11.4%.NAR Housing Affordability IndexFigure 12: NAR Housing Affordability IndexNAR Housing Affordability Index, United States (100+= Affordable)60.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0October: -10% YOY220.0240.0Source: U.S. Census B

44、ureau.October NAR Housing Affordability Index registered 146.9, 37% higher than the current cycles trough affordability of 106.9 in July 2007.YOY, affordability decreased 10% from 162.7. Sequentially, affordability decreased 0.3% from 138.9.The NAR affordability index measures whether or not a typic

45、al family could qualify for a mortgage on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by the NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the U.S. median family income as reported by the Census. These and the prevailing mort

46、gage rate are used to determine if the median income family would qualify for a mortgage. The calculation assumes a down payment of 20% and a qualifying ratio of 25% (i.e., that means the monthly P&I payment cannot exceed 25% of the median family monthly income).FHFA House Price IndexFigure 13: FHFA

47、 House Price Index280.00October +5.7% YOY260.00240.00220.00200.00180.00160.00140.00120.00FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (SA, Jan-91=100)Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency.Octobers FHFA house price index was 267.89, up 18% from the prior peak of226.7 in April 2007.YOY, the h

48、ousing price index improved 5.7%.Sequentially, prices were up 0.3%.Note: FHFA (formerly OFHEO) utilizes a repeat sales index that is based on loans that pass through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so home prices must conform to those institutions standards below 80 LTV or mortgage insurance with a FICO

49、 score of 680 and a conforming home price.NAR Median SalesFigure 14: NAR Median Sales Price Existing Single Family Homes280,000November: +5.0% YOY230,000180,000130,00080,00030,000-20,000NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes, United States ($)Source: National Association of Realtors.Novembe

50、r NAR sales price for existing single family homes came in at $260,500 (peaked four months ago with June 2018 at $276,500).YOY, the housing price index increased 5.0%.Sequentially, prices increased 1.1%.Note: Median and mean (average) prices are computed for the nation and four census regions on a m

51、onthly basis. Median prices are also calculated for selected metropolitan areas and are reported quarterly to give adequate time for data gathering. Due to the nature of the distribution of home sales prices, the mean sales price is usually higher than the median price.Case-Shiller Housing Price Ind

52、exFigure 15: Case-Shiller Housing Price IndexAZ-PhoenixNV-Las VegasComposite-10Composite-20250200150100500Source: Standard and Poors.Case-Shiller Composite 20 reached its peak level in October 2018, moving to213.58 from the previous peak of 206.63 in April 2006.YOY, Composite 20 housing prices incre

53、ased 5.1% from 203.21.Sequentially, prices were up 40 bps from the previous month.Note: Case-Shiller is a repeat sales index that includes all data extracted from county courthouses. The information is reported on a lag compared to FHFA but the area representation is broader, in an effort to provide

54、 more accuracy.Consumer Credit OutstandingFigure 16: YOY Change in Consumer Credit OutstandingSource: Federal Reserve Board, DLX, and J.P. Morgan economists.Total consumer credit outstanding increased 0.6% sequentially in October and increased 4.7% YOY. We believe credit trends remain favorable with

55、 steady improvements over the past several months.Non-revolving consumer credit (55% student and 40% auto loans) totaled$2.93T, a 5.4% increase from last year. Sequentially, non-revolving consumer debt increased 0.6%.Revolving credit increased 2.8% YOY, peaking to $1.04T (previous peak $1.02T in Jul

56、y 2008). Sequentially, revolving consumer credit was up 0.9%.Revolving credit, where consumers have the most discretion, had shown sharper declines than non-revolving debt and mortgages as consumers attempted to deleverage, although has appeared to recover.Wages, Salary Disbursements, SavingsFigure

57、17: MOM and YOY Changes in Wage and Salary DisbursementsSource: Havers Analytics, BEA, and the Federal Reserve Board.Wage and salary disbursements were up 20 bps in November vs. the previous month. YOY trends have moved higher with wage and salary disbursements increasing 4.2% compared to last year.

58、Core retail sales (3-month moving average) increased 5.0% YOY in November vs. Octobers 4.8% increase. Core retail sales growth is 66% correlated to wage growth.Nonfarm payrolls increased 312K in December vs 175K over the same period last year (a 1.8% increase in total nonfarm payrolls YOY), with the

59、 unemployment rate at 3.9%.The personal savings rate was 6.0% in November, a 3% decrease YOY. The average savings rate over the last 40 years is 7.6%.Consumer Leverage RatiosFigure 18: Mortgage Debt vs. CC Debt as a % of Annualized DPISource: Havers Analytics, and the Federal Reserve Board.Mortgage

60、debt as a percentage of annualized disposable personal income represented 67.6% in 3Q18.Consumer credit as a percentage of annualized disposable personal income was 25.3% in 3Q18.The combined total of 92.9% was well below the high of 123.6% from 2007.Resets, Equity Withdrawals, Applications600120005