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6、72001/72004/72007/72010/72013/72016/7 :5CKfifi21Eflfl,7$6+g431.50%27.10%9.30%3.00%7.90%21.20%Hershey Co LindtFerrero GroupMars Inc Nestl SA Othersfl#flKfi2,fi 32%$fl37$?258,fl#fi $fl;16%B$=,AG$ fifi.1950s-1995$CR2G$fi80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1950s # fi1965$ fi1995CR2Bfi32$fl;14.39%26002100160011006

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9、 TOP Co Ltd(%) CR4(%) : Bloomberg, fi $ y$ 45000400003500030000250002000015000100005000050004500400035003000250020001500100050001978/11979/11980/11981/11982/11983/11984/11985/11986/11987/11988/11989/11990/11991/11992/11993/11994/11995/11996/11997/11998/11999/12000/12001/12002/12003/12004/12005/12006

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11、15 15 15 16 16 16 17 1720 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2020100306050407019971999200120032005200720092011201320152017$01020304050602011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-01$ $40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018/01 20%18%16%14%12

12、%10%8%6%4%2%0%2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018/01$ 4 4540353025201510502012/012013/012014/012015/012016/012017/012018/0112-17$fifi:#$fl fl651.75%afi4:Rfl9,$ 6U$.T fi fl# *0: Bloomberg, fi $ y$% *0: wind, fi $ y$%1zG$flE(%)R9J1 fl 41.03%DE(6fi 29.15%DE(9K $M27.91%DE(13NL25.96%DE(1

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14、ifi flfl LN8$ $ (-: wind, fi $ fi fl GB8fifiDfi%fly$!,+8:fifi2017#)fi.=4 *=4fi fifl 40%30%20%10%0%-10%60%50%1/1/20041/1/20051/1/20061/1/20071/1/20081/1/20091/1/20101/1/20111/1/20121/1/20131/1/20141/1/20151/1/20161/1/2017 fl,* $ (-: wind, fi $ y$!$: 11H:=fl5/,fififi#,:fi4$fi:fl$,Mfi=4$fi I fi$fi 4$ f

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16、92199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016fi (%)y (%)$ (%) fi (%)50%40%30%20%10%0%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $! $-20%0%20%40%60%201220132014201520162017$! $ $ # fi ($ )30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $ $ $! 122fifi-;$: fi-;9 % flQfi$AB& -; fi9 $fiHfi”,fifi,C3 ,Cfi9 ? ,9*,

17、fi$“fi$ ”3flfifiq1 $ Qfi$ $fi, flfi1 fi$ Qfi fi$fi2flfi3fi18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0% $!,(fifl$0$fi$- fi$0 &: wind, fi $ y$ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201778 ) &:fifi , fi $ y$ 2fi+7 fi40003500300025002000150010005000-20%0%20%40%60%80%100% fl$0$- fi fl -1-2$,#fl$fi$ $!,( fi35000300002500020000

18、150001000050000200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018$fl. :$55$fi!,fl ! ; yfl6+fifl45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017$5fi4 - ) %1fl $5/fi6flfl,8$fi+fl$5/2020$fifififi10%$ fi : wind, fi $ y$ 2; ,9#$ flfi, fi$5 6flf

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21、)$X%/$Mfi133.4100.573.165.884.185.933.861.281.314.643.076.81.810.121.916.4553.098.713.2%7%18%29%(fi$ 0!)12500fi) %):(Tfi /, fi $ y$ 6050403020100400003000020000100000199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017fi2$fi: 0!) 0!)/$fl 0!)/“” $!Qfi$!$fi,# # flfi1Qfi

22、$! fifi$fi2$!10%q fi,fl # # fiflfiflz3fi!$ fi$ fi, $ !$fififi!$ : $ fi,$ fi fi!$: g$ fi1 6;:, fi $ y$)$!fl:$: 1 6;:wind, fi $ y$)1 6;:, fi $ y$)=$M fi fi$YG=$fi fl - Y fifi=$M % fl M ,flSR6fl2000fl! ,M fi9$ fi=$M fi - fi,$YG=$qC:O ?3K, 3KflWfi8, J % fi30%25%20%15%10%5%0%20062007200820092010201120122

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24、%ey/E)(flE)M9(600y/e)Wn(300600)$fl(;fi15733,Z$1200yfi149.675.76862.1115.81%Z$M3/M6,flfl(.8600y-1200y103)fiz15-$H33.98300.005.50%$n(10050100)#c fi100-200y2.18964.632102.3138.54%(50-100y/e)n(50)$fi= fi$fifi%= fi$fifiz3100yfi :fi $ $ CAGR25%Wg: ,Wind,fi$ y$HdTfi1W,fi$wfi ,fi fifi$3w=CAGRfi18%,)3fi, fif

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27、 2013$&fl $#% $&.fi &10%5%0%15%20%25%30%350003000025000200001500010000500002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Y fl W()fl flG*Y () fl WG*Y &8A:Y!S fi $ y$3fl q$ $&)fifl W18fi114$W(?fl $W 20%qflfi$W$flS,$80%$fl W),#flfifi2018 Y fl $Wfi3.10 flafi20%YX& J,18YXfi13.3fl,Vfl $W$Y flflfl$ fi#, fi

28、 Pa$600)4.35600.535.71862.1131.17%43.56%17.53%28.23%9.261817.68 *2.992143.98300.0033.19%40.19%26.55%31.52%8.07682.50$ 209.052000223.682190.007.00%9.50%4.00%6.00%251.592608.09$ (50300100300) (50)fi fi fi2020 * $&( fl* &(fifi18-20 * &fifl(fl27% fi,fifi * fiflfi2020 30%fi fl$#:3$flfi 3$/flfl, fi;3 fi12

29、0%100%80%60%40%20%0%?G?fi%fl/$&.-$: $: fi?fi9H?10K?D9M2010-2012 fi201020112012fl flFfl* J 20y,fl* 80 fi365yF+J 10-20y,%$/ F50y,fl* 80 L7426yfl* 80 L7527yfi91080 378y,fi915614y780y?5J 15-20%, fi910J 358y,80fi91080 498y,15 fi508y,fi91580 945yfl(10/15$ J 368y,A3500IJ 10%7418y,80 598yAfl1200-1400Iq,80 6

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31、 fi 3$* fl10-12$1/flfl250020001500100050002006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-01$fl 80 80 fl$5:H7flfi+H7Dflfl,#fiPH fiM111$ Q 100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%2010-122011-032011-062011-092011-122012-032012-062012-092012-12140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%20

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