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1、$ fi,fifi$f%fi$ f %flfi”,fi“fi$ ”$lf Q%,ffiDfiQfi$fiyfifi$fi: 10%qfi,ttflfi30%+mfitfl,tflfldbh;fi$32fifi-;$: fi-;9 % flQfi$AB& -; fi9 $fiHfi”,fifi,C3 ,Cfi9 ? ,9*,fi$“fi$ ”3flfifiq1 9JHflPfifi8,“fi$”9JH “fi$”V al: $ $a,#fi#$ y$JV al:Bloomberg,#fi#$ y$J+2003$zB$flA (%)H9D1fi. $z19.75%j4fi $7 z16.11%j6
2、z14.55%j16iz14.26%j173 z14.22%j20$fl13.58%j20z. 15.25%500 V10.85%+2017zB$flA (%)H9D1%Ifi17.29%j-$3fi$fl15.22%j-ofl6 12.84%j- $7fi flfizw12.74%j- $9fifi12.06%j-flfi13$ 11.63%j-%fl+;014Ks Holdings Corp10.99%j-ofl15fi10.25%j-fi*16IZUMI10.23%j-:j $q$flfi,%$&Qfi,%Hfl fi”jfi; #:fi($: $flfi,fi 3RjfiOfih%fl
3、 fi:kHflfip(, fi fi fl, %fiQ fi;L,fifl,flJfififlE 9J$fi$fiQ,50$20$119J$ 20$8$G9JH(25$)$+*fl4fifi#,“fi$” z*$fl1$1996-11-1835.77%2Cfl(U2001-08-2734.99%3JKKfl2000-10-1830.60%4fi$Kfl1993-12-1526.31%5y$h$1997-05-0826.05%6 Kfl2001-03-1925.42%7flAMfl1991-01-2924.93%8fi U1996-03-1224.74%9fi$1996-05-2824.38%
4、10C$U1994-05-0923.61%11fl4flyfl2001-01-0523.09%12$g&$U1998-12-1021.54%13fi W$- %1993-10-1821.49%14|th$1993-06-1021.38%15U1998-04-2720.72%16h1h$1997-11-2520.57%17fiWKfl1996-12-1820.48%18)fl#fiKfl1996-10-2820.19%19fiKfl1996-07-2919.58%20fifiT$B1997-09-2419.32%A$ffi15$($, 220$6$+$j )flma*, 5fi,p?flfi_0
5、fi$6 p K+p fi)fifi,K+ Pfiik,Ffi%fiafi(fipfipROE),%o_fi“6K”fi$“RPfii” PfiQ,Pfii_p Ifi%”,”%fi_6bl12010080604020012/31/196812/31/197212/31/197612/31/198012/31/198412/31/198812/31/199212/31/199612/31/200012/31/200412/31/200812/31/2012 # fi $ fi 1401201008060402001980/71983/71986/71989/71992/71995/71998/
6、72001/72004/72007/72010/72013/72016/7 :5CKfifi21Eflfl,7$6+g431.50%27.10%9.30%3.00%7.90%21.20%Hershey Co LindtFerrero GroupMars Inc Nestl SA Othersfl#flKfi2,fi 32%$fl37$?258,fl#fi $fl;16%B$=,AG$ fifi.1950s-1995$CR2G$fi80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1950s # fi1965$ fi1995CR2Bfi32$fl;14.39%26002100160011006
7、00100807060504030201009/1/19809/1/19829/1/19849/1/19869/1/19889/1/19909/1/19929/1/19949/1/19969/1/19989/1/20009/1/20029/1/20049/1/20069/1/20089/1/20109/1/2012 S&P500(q)fifi.fi$fi # fi$fl30$ fi30-50 : Bloomberg, fi $ y$ 10.89.05.54.33.72.92.82.42.12.354.2$#:)8fiflfi$,26$fifl$fl.fi 7:90$fi6$,; fiqfl.0
8、fi ;$fl$fl6.85%.2.24% 7.47%CAGR : Bloomberg, fi $ y$ ,$#fi/5=$fi fifl 1984-2017$/fiHoya$fl-9.66%7000600050004000300020001000019841986198719891991199319941996199820002001200320052007200820102012201420150510302520152007200820092010201120122013201420152016JINS Inc(%)Intermestic Inc(%)Hoya Corp(%)Megane
9、 TOP Co Ltd(%) CR4(%) : Bloomberg, fi $ y$ 45000400003500030000250002000015000100005000050004500400035003000250020001500100050001978/11979/11980/11981/11982/11983/11984/11985/11986/11987/11988/11989/11990/11991/11992/11993/11994/11995/11996/11997/11998/11999/12000/12001/12002/12003/12004/12005/12006
10、/12007/12008/12009/12010/12011/12012/12013/12014/12015/12016/12017/12018/1 $fl$fidflNKY INDEX(q )$ :q63&g0,2fi C=fi/ $fi=fi/597-17$CAGR24.87%1Gfl $;$fi,flEfi/fifi:#fl;flfi+3fifi1Gflfi-511-17$ CAGR41.89% !: Bloomberg, fi $ y$ 2%1%0%5%4%3%6%2007200820092006 , ) fi5040302010012 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14
11、15 15 15 16 16 16 17 1720 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2020100306050407019971999200120032005200720092011201320152017$01020304050602011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-01$ $40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018/01 20%18%16%14%12
12、%10%8%6%4%2%0%2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018/01$ 4 4540353025201510502012/012013/012014/012015/012016/012017/012018/0112-17$fifi:#$fl fl651.75%afi4:Rfl9,$ 6U$.T fi fl# *0: Bloomberg, fi $ y$% *0: wind, fi $ y$%1zG$flE(%)R9J1 fl 41.03%DE(6fi 29.15%DE(9K $M27.91%DE(13NL25.96%DE(1
13、4fi;JA25.40%DE(15 - $24.69%DE( *0: wind, fi $ fi$:2002$ fizy$%,;C:2002-2017,ffi15$F$U 07c20$6afi4afi4R$9fl930%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016$A fifiE( flfi/G$A A= R2017fi(, LI#fi)flJ1573%flC230.41%27.35%14.59%4.72%3.60%5.63%13.00%0.70%,*$9,$9M1/M3fi8 f
14、ifi flfl LN8$ $ (-: wind, fi $ fi fl GB8fifiDfi%fly$!,+8:fifi2017#)fi.=4 *=4fi fifl 40%30%20%10%0%-10%60%50%1/1/20041/1/20051/1/20061/1/20071/1/20081/1/20091/1/20101/1/20111/1/20121/1/20131/1/20141/1/20151/1/20161/1/2017 fl,* $ (-: wind, fi $ y$!$: 11H:=fl5/,fififi#,:fi4$fi:fl$,Mfi=4$fi I fi$fi 4$ f
15、i I fi$fi 4$ROEfi/$= fi:J$flfi/$Lfi2$fl$D,fl5/fififi#, fifi fifi fi ;($ fififi fifi ;($Lfi2 fl,fiE$35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016CR2fi$4540353025201510501992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016fi (%)y (%)$ (%) fi (%)151050-5-10-1519
16、92199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016fi (%)y (%)$ (%) fi (%)50%40%30%20%10%0%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $! $-20%0%20%40%60%201220132014201520162017$! $ $ # fi ($ )30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $ $ $! 122fifi-;$: fi-;9 % flQfi$AB& -; fi9 $fiHfi”,fifi,C3 ,Cfi9 ? ,9*,
17、fi$“fi$ ”3flfifiq1 $ Qfi$ $fi, flfi1 fi$ Qfi fi$fi2flfi3fi18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0% $!,(fifl$0$fi$- fi$0 &: wind, fi $ y$ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201778 ) &:fifi , fi $ y$ 2fi+7 fi40003500300025002000150010005000-20%0%20%40%60%80%100% fl$0$- fi fl -1-2$,#fl$fi$ $!,( fi35000300002500020000
18、150001000050000200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018$fl. :$55$fi!,fl ! ; yfl6+fifl45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017$5fi4 - ) %1fl $5/fi6flfl,8$fi+fl$5/2020$fifififi10%$ fi : wind, fi $ y$ 2; ,9#$ flfi, fi$5 6flf
19、l $(1 fi+fl$fi$,fi6flfl : fi $ y$ : fi $ y$ 100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%-120%1000090008000700060005000400030002000100002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018E2019E2020E$ fi )() fi Ofifi:$VDR$fi$VZ$,fiZ$ %):(Tfi /, fi $ y$ $fi U$fi( ,fi$fl .LKflflfl! ,
20、2$KVYQfl$fi/fiDRfl$gWDR fl fi$2015$40%2020$55% %): Wind,1fi, fi $ y$ fifi2020$X%/$M(?($fl)X201020152020E$ (2010fl2015fl2020Efl$fi X-6.2%53%34%22%(fi$ 0!)5200yfi)fl$ X0.4%26%28%25%(fi$ 0!)5200-8300y)$X5.8%14%20%24%(fi$ 0!)8300-12500y)$ X12.3%6%14%23%(fi$ 0!)12500-24000y)/$M16.9%1%3%6%(fi$ 0!)24000yfi
21、)$X%/$Mfi133.4100.573.165.884.185.933.861.281.314.643.076.81.810.121.916.4553.098.713.2%7%18%29%(fi$ 0!)12500fi) %):(Tfi /, fi $ y$ 6050403020100400003000020000100000199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017fi2$fi: 0!) 0!)/$fl 0!)/“” $!Qfi$!$fi,# # flfi1Qfi
22、$! fifi$fi2$!10%q fi,fl # # fiflfiflz3fi!$ fi$ fi, $ !$fififi!$ : $ fi,$ fi fi!$: g$ fi1 6;:, fi $ y$)$!fl:$: 1 6;:wind, fi $ y$)1 6;:, fi $ y$)=$M fi fi$YG=$fi fl - Y fifi=$M % fl M ,flSR6fl2000fl! ,M fi9$ fi=$M fi - fi,$YG=$qC:O ?3K, 3KflWfi8, J % fi30%25%20%15%10%5%0%20062007200820092010201120122
23、01320142015201620172018/01$/$26flfifl U.4:Wind, fi $ y$!00000000002006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018/01$/71Zfifl U.4:Wind, fi $ y$!D7$flfi-D7 C$fl$;fl12$%fifiqfl15$:fiL S_:M,$fi$ y$IL S_:| ,wind,$fi$ y$Ifi$fl fi :fi,$-D7$fl$fi12fi+qzfiG,n$ :pfi,n$ +$AKyWn$l,Wn$AKv,$fifl 15fizeb,Wn$
24、%ey/E)(flE)M9(600y/e)Wn(300600)$fl(;fi15733,Z$1200yfi149.675.76862.1115.81%Z$M3/M6,flfl(.8600y-1200y103)fiz15-$H33.98300.005.50%$n(10050100)#c fi100-200y2.18964.632102.3138.54%(50-100y/e)n(50)$fi= fi$fifi%= fi$fifiz3100yfi :fi $ $ CAGR25%Wg: ,Wind,fi$ y$HdTfi1W,fi$wfi ,fi fifi$3w=CAGRfi18%,)3fi, fif
25、iw$fiflfi *25%fi8.6 $fl#fl &1573$ fi fl 20162.681.50.54.684.930.2520173.021.70.75.425.710.292017613%13%40%16%16%16%20204.331.58.89.260.462017-20208.612%21%29%18%18%18%wh2017-2020fl+17-20|flfl,fifi17- 208.6 12%q $fifl+ z2020,%fiiJfi fiDU)fiififiq fifiz2020 w*3fl $fl+ q fii$L,/ k/fii$=fi ffi1573qnfl+0
26、q1573flz,$fl+ fii$D$ffi/,%fii%flwhqnwvfl,$=fie,=fi;6fiqn$fl+ , h$ fi2020,Ofifl |G, flflfi7000060000500004000030000200001000002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021Efl $WX()Y fl W(), :fl,*$#$fl ($fl +$.$.fi&)$&(-)8A:Y!S fi $ y$3fl$18$fl &fi (
27、 2013$&fl $#% $&.fi &10%5%0%15%20%25%30%350003000025000200001500010000500002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Y fl W()fl flG*Y () fl WG*Y &8A:Y!S fi $ y$3fl q$ $&)fifl W18fi114$W(?fl $W 20%qflfi$W$flS,$80%$fl W),#flfifi2018 Y fl $Wfi3.10 flafi20%YX& J,18YXfi13.3fl,Vfl $W$Y flflfl$ fi#, fi
28、 Pa$600)4.35600.535.71862.1131.17%43.56%17.53%28.23%9.261817.68 *2.992143.98300.0033.19%40.19%26.55%31.52%8.07682.50$ 209.052000223.682190.007.00%9.50%4.00%6.00%251.592608.09$ (50300100300) (50)fi fi fi2020 * $&( fl* &(fifi18-20 * &fifl(fl27% fi,fifi * fiflfi2020 30%fi fl$#:3$flfi 3$/flfl, fi;3 fi12
29、0%100%80%60%40%20%0%?G?fi%fl/$&.-$: $: fi?fi9H?10K?D9M2010-2012 fi201020112012fl flFfl* J 20y,fl* 80 fi365yF+J 10-20y,%$/ F50y,fl* 80 L7426yfl* 80 L7527yfi91080 378y,fi915614y780y?5J 15-20%, fi910J 358y,80fi91080 498y,15 fi508y,fi91580 945yfl(10/15$ J 368y,A3500IJ 10%7418y,80 598yAfl1200-1400Iq,80 6
30、00-700y$C,.4.flfi80 558yPfifiAfifi 25%qP80fi80 600yfi, 200IqL$50-100yfifiA800Iq8.2(p20/30$D93080 388yPD9fifiA1350ID93080 598yPD9fifiA1800ID92080 498y,D930J 80 fi418/698yP D9fifiA2200I$).)M3$:80 399y,A33500I;$:M380 428y$:80 396y,A37000I;M380 518y$:80 482y,A31fl I;$:M380 628yP3$.fl 09-12$fl* 3$ 10-12$
31、 fi 3$* fl10-12$1/flfl250020001500100050002006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-01$fl 80 80 fl$5:H7flfi+H7Dflfl,#fiPH fiM111$ Q 100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%2010-122011-032011-062011-092011-122012-032012-062012-092012-12140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%20
32、10-122011-032011-062011-092011-122012-032012-062012-092012-12LC12$fl/fl*$ fi0CIC11-12$ -fi fl$-50%0%50%100%150%200%2010-122011-032011-062011-092011-122012-032012-062012-092012-12.,11-12$8 fifl H 100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2010-122011-032011-062011-092011-122012-032012-062012-092012-12113$JA yf
33、l20121$ 25%,GL 20%1110$B 10%2009201020112012fiCOGflfl P6$GLG21 09-12$+H7=z fiN fi&200150100500(50)=+H7z6)#fi./P6$:10/K:$ $ fl,$QfiCOG:11Dfl 480-530,$1-1.5z$fi600+ -fl10%fi,flfirPkIhY+gfiflfiU):fizxfl$Cflfi, h4U)flfi8rflAol,188rfiE :fi, fi48r$flW$fl;fi*$D,mfiJDflDfl8flA,$X8flAn,$qg$JKfi $: + fi fiz f
34、i fifi qpifiI$jfl,gfrct$P20%q5;,z17fl$,S)yfifl,$_$l$Hfififiz17-19EPSfi4.53/5.75/7.41y/,q% fiC 24/19/15 ,P ) k;17flctY$z17h$r5,firfih$5=fi5fifi17515%-16%$,+r5fifi17 5fi18;ffiL$:$4fi$_ ,181$4fi,4 ffisfl529%q,fifi;fl525%q .18flT$fifi$_ctfifi5fifi fifi18zzflT$.J fifi(3fl $flq%390y q450yq),ctfifi18$=fi50
35、%fi5fi $ :$fiflfi flfifi fi!fifi zfiV,fl fi$,fiBfi fifizp$flfdfifiW5%- 10%D,fipr%$0$,Jfic);Dfi$zE Ap,Hz Dfi,fifi17-19c)17.81/26.71/36.82,flDfi22%/50%/38%;fifi17-19fi1.47/4.55/8.00y,flDfi84%/208%/76%,EPSfi0.36/1.13/1.98;- fiSPE fi108/35/20 , ) ;,$y)x)z20167$y)$Xfiz;,Mfl,|dzfl;qfl$;flfifififikl,$;e,fl
36、fiz,fiVJ“+$X”7,flfiflfi17Q1-Q3$t($fi)c)10.03,flDfi28.9%,t()c)1.12,fl25.6%18zh$X,fifi$Xfififlzflfi|Qflflzfi$Xy|$,=$X;$|fl,fifiQflAz17Q3$A1363,2016D354 :$ fi fi ,z fi fifi 18“z flfifi,fifififlBfi62%75%2017“$fl4$h,fi $Q,fi fifi2018Q1ze)Bfi40%50%fi fifi18-20e)12.41/17.07/23.15y,B41.3%/37.6%/35.58%,fi2.8
37、4/4.31/6.12y,B65%/48%/44%, fiU 28/18/13 ,b ) k16)8,flfififfiflffififl fl;flfif,fl;z;flfif,% P,zfifi1712$kfi8 70y/,fl;fi2 ffi 4%q,fi 9fl flfi z$fifi9fi2 bBfi,17fi2fifie)1.77y,flBfi18.27%,“ fi2fi $Bfi,“flfi2fl.Zfi9$Gfizfi9flfiV,fifi18fifiV (fl10002000)Afl fifififi3fitfifl,flzflfi$: fi-;9 % flQfi$AB& -; fi9 $fiHfi”,fifi,C3 ,Cfi9 ? ,9*,fi$“fi$ ”3flfifiq1 2:fifi $.fi28flfl4.112.018.33.83.13.620181614121086420$#$ !fl;$
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