CHEN对外合作能源基金会交通项目基础数据机动车统

1、1 International Trends in Environmental Regulations for VehiclesSantiago, ChileMay 13, 2008Michael P. WalshInternational ConsultantChairman, Board of Directors,International Council on Clean TransportationMajor Global TrendsEnvironmental Concerns IncreasingParticlesGlobal WarmingCleaner and Cleaner

2、Technologies Entering MarketplaceHeavy Duty Diesel VehiclesPassenger CarsMotorcyclesCleaner Fuels Increasingly CriticalSulfur Levels Approaching ZeroLead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing ConcernGrowth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-20024E:Changhong CHEN对外合作能源基金会交通项目基础数据机动车统计报表.xlsMost Vehicles A

3、re In Cities5One Result: Serious Health ConcernsWHO Concludes 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PMNumerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.No Evidence of a ThresholdOzone, NO2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health ConcernsSlide 6

4、Source: Cohen et al, 2005PM10 in Major citiesEnergy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate (%) by Region 2004 - 2030In 2004,94 % of transport energy based on fossil oil.The share will only slightly decrease to 93 % in 2030. Source: IEA WEO 20060123456WorldOECDOECD North AmericaUS

5、AOECD PacificJapanOECD EuropeEuropean UnionTransition EconomiesRussiaDeveloping CountriesDeveloping AsiaChinaIndiaLatin AmericaBrazilMiddle EastAfricaGrowth (% p.a.)BackgroundCarbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story!Transportation sector priorities103 key interventionsFuel-efficient, low Emitting carsL

6、ow-carbon fuelsReduced vehicle-miles traveled through congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit, etc.Slide 11Technology Capable of Cleaning Vehicle Emissions Has Improved Dramatically in the Past 30-40 YearsThe Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Cl

7、ose-coupled and Underfloor ApplicationsLayered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stabilityIntegrated HC adsorption functions Mounting materials with improved durability High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates Insulation schemes for heat managementMaximum Emissio

8、ns Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur FuelDiesel Particulate FiltersTrapped PMCell PlugsExhaust(PM, CO, HC)EnterCeramic HoneycombWallExhaust (CO2, H2O)OutIssues to balance:sulfate formationregeneration and back pressureFuel EconomyReductions:-80 to 95% PM-80-100% HC, CO-80%+ toxinsHo

9、w The Trap Functions Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition from non grey.Gasoline and LPGG-DIConventional Diesel18Current DPF Applications Millions of cars are equipped with DPF around worldAir TankUreaTankCatalyst Input TemperatureCatalyst

10、 Output TemperatureEngineSCR ConnectorECMDosing UnitJ1939 (Public)Air SolenoidUrea SensorSCR ControlExhaust Gas ProcessorSCR Solution System Architecture20Emissions control system for Euro VI Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC).Mi

11、xerSCR + ASCDOC(optional)NOx sensorNOx sensorCalifornias ZEV HistoryZEV RegulationPZEVs createdCaFCP StartedAT PZEVs CreatedZEV Reg ImplementationFC Buses on-roadZEV - StatusGoals:Drive development of ZEVsSupports bridging technologies like HybridsMaximizes air quality benefits with PZEVsStatusPZEVs

12、 marketed by all automakers subject to the regulation, 425,000 PZEVs sold to dateHybrids very successful in the marketplace, 70,000 AT PZEV hybrids sold to date100 Fuel cell vehicles being placed in California in real world demonstration fleetsHonda Civic Hybrid AT PZEVNear-Zero Emission VehiclesLif

13、etime emissions (VOC+NOx)Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs)Currently 20 models for sale, including 4 HEVs250,000 annual sales (14%) in 20051,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)Model YearVOC + NOx (kg)Reduction19701900-2005 PZEV899.6%Near-Zero Emission VehiclesBMW 325iChrysler SebringFord FocusFord Fusi

14、onFord Escape HEVHonda AccordHonda Civic HEVHonda insight HEVHyundai ElantraKia SpectraMazda 3Mazda 6Mitsubishi GalantNissan AltimaNissan SentraSubaru OutbackToyota CamryToyota Prius HEVVW JettaVolvo S40Fleet Demonstrations100 Fuel cell light duty vehicles to dateUp to 7 Fuel cell busesTesting, outr

15、each, data collection, validationZEV Technology Review - CARBPlug In Hybrids Are EmergingElectric bikes in China, P.R.China Produced Approximately 15 Million Electric bikes in 2007This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and motorcycles, introduced f

16、rom 1996 onwards in several major Chinese citiesSources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006Which Countries Are Getting Clean Technologies?Clean FuelsStringent Standards Including Advanced Technology MandatesStrong IncentivesEconomicOtherMy Global Vision For 2015Every New Diesel Has PM Filter & Low NOxGasol

17、ine Vehicles Approaching ZERO EmissionsHybrid Technologies (Including Plug In Hybrids) Are Mature, Widespread TechnologySmall Battery Electric Vehicles (City) Vehicles Widely UsedFuel Cell Vehicle Numbers IncreasingWhat Is The Situation Today in SantiagoGood Fuel Quality 80%15 ppm 40% oil import dep

18、endenceMotor Vehicle Growth Forecast9 xby 20253.5 xby 2025Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plcSee: China Overview2007 DevelopmentsEuro 3 (Euro III) Standards Introduced NationallyEuro 4 (IV) Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008)50 PPM Sulfur Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008)MMT Maximum

19、 Reduced From 18 to 16 Nationally and to 6 in BeijingSEPA Now Ministry of Environmental ProtectionLooking AheadContinue Clean Fuels PushIntroduce Euro 4 (IV) NationallyAccelerate in Other Cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen,) Compliance ProgramRetrofitsElectric bikes in China, P.R.Electric bikes i

20、n China increased from only 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005 to 15 in 2007Sales increased from about 7.5 million units in in 2004 to 10 million units in 2005 to 15 in 2007This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and motorcycles, introduced from 1

21、996 onwards in several major Chinese citiesThe most problematic issue with electric bikes is the use of lead acid batteries that have high lead loss rates during the production, manufacturing and recycling processesSources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006Hong Kongs Approach1/1/2006 New Gasoline Cars Mee

22、t Euro 4 standards1/1/2006 New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards1/1/2007 Light Trucks Between 2.5-3.5 tons Meet Euro 4 standards10/1/2006 New standards will be Introduced for Trucks over 3.5 tonsULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required; Lower Sulfur Fuels (10 PPM) Encouraged By Tax Policy54IndiaVehicle popul

23、ation growth in India Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plcSee: 6.7 xby 20255 xby 2025New Vehicle Standards in IndiaEntire CountryEuro 2 April 2005Euro 3 April 2010Major CitiesDelhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Euro 3 in 2005 & Eur

24、o 4 in 2010Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehiclesEuro 3 From April 2005Euro 4 From April 2010BrazilBrazilPassenger Cars & Light Commercial VehiclesUS EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997Tier 1 Phased in 2005-2007 (40/70/100%)FedLev in 2009

25、 (Phase in)No Diesel Cars AllowedHeavy Duty Trucks & BusesEuro 3 Phased in 2004-2006Euro 4 in 2009FuelsSee Diesel Fuel Phase In ScheduleGasoline S from 1000 to 400 in 2004 & to 80 in 20082006200720082009201020112012201320142015D 200073%73%73%63%58%53%5%5%5%5%D 50027%27%27%27%27%27%60%45%30%15%D 5010

26、%15%20%35%50%65%80% ESTIMADO DE PRODUOLEO DIESEL INTERIOR2a BOMBA (PUMP)LEO DIESEL FERROVIRIO E P/ TERMOELTRICASLEO DIESEL 500LEO DIESEL METROPOLITANOLEO DIESEL 50LEO DIESEL AUTOMOTIVOExhaust Emission Standards in KoreaGasoline Passenger Car - ULEV of LEV-2 standard (of CARB) applied from 2006. - LE

27、V 2 NMOG Standard Applied in 2009Diesel HDV - EURO-4 standard applied from 2006.10/2008.1. - EURO-V standard introduced 9/09-2011Diesel Passenger Car - EURO-4 starts from 2006 - EURO 5 starts from 2009Diesel LDT - EURO-4 applied from 2006.1/2007.1 - EURO 5 applied from 9/2010 to 2012Sulfur in Fuels

28、1/1/200650 PPM Gasoline30 PPM DieselWorldwide Motorcycle Emission RegulationsJapanIII Stage (2008)HC+NOx:1.01.25CO: 1.01.25ChinaII Stage (2004)ECE40HC: 1.2NOx:0.3CO: 5.510,000 kmEuropeEU II (2003)ECE40Cold StartHC: 1.0NOx:0.3CO: 3.0EU III (2006)HC: 0.8NOx:0.15CO: 2.030,000 km(2006/2007)ECE40Cold Sta

29、rtHC: 0.3/0.5NOx:0.15CO: 2.012,000/24,000 kmIV Stage (2004)ECE40Cold StartHC+NOx:2.0CO: 7.015,000 kmTaiwanII Stage (2005)IDC Cold StartHC+NOx:1.5CO: 1.530,000 kmIndiaNote: I/M (Inspection and Maintenance) Life-cycle Emission Control The Current Situation in SantiagoFuel QualityGasoline 15 PPM Sulfur

30、 in 2009Diesel 50 PPM Sulfur; 15 PPM in ?Light Duty Vehicles Gasoline US Tier 1 or Euro 3Diesel CA Tier 1 or Euro 4Medium Duty VehiclesTier 1 or Euro 3Heavy Duty Bus and TruckUS EPA 98 or Euro IIIResultados homologacin diesel EURO IV por modelo EURO IVEURO VResultados homologacin diesel EURO IV por

31、modelo EURO IVEURO VResultados homologacin EPA por modelo grs/km (CO y HC)Tier 0, Tier 2 Bin 5Modelos homologados bajo normas EPA(6 de los 10 modelos ms vendidos)Corsa Plus homologado EuroTier 0Resultados homologacin EPA por modelo gr/km (Nox)Tier 1Tier 2 Bin 8Tier 2 Bin 5Motorcycles Increasing RapidlyBellagio PrinciplesDesign Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in ParallelTreat Vehicles and Fuels As A SystemNew Vehicle Standards for Greenhouse Emissions & Conventional Pollutants Should Be Fuel NeutralExpect &