高盛2月4日最新亚洲及中国经济研究报告

1、单击此处编辑母版标题样式单击此处编辑母版文本样式第二级第三级第四级第五级*19901993199220001996199120032004199920061995200720022005199419971998200116141210610810864110112060708million80060040020001210%86420-2Asia Economics AnalystIssue No: 09/02February 4, 2009Goldman Sachs Global ECS Asia Researchat s:/360.gsMichael Buchananmichael.buc

2、hanangsCan growth recover before China rebalances?+852 2978 1802Goohoon Kwongoohoon.kwongsThe Chinese economy is experiencing itssharpest slowdown in 30 years, as industrialproduction growth drops on the back of weakerChina: Financial conditions easing isexpected to boost activity growth in 6 months

3、or so+822 3788 1775external demand and real estate investment.% chg yoy18Financial Conditions Index104Tushar Poddartushar.poddargs+91 22 6616 9042Enoch Fungenoch.funggs+852 2978 0784Helen (Hong) Qiaohelen.qiaogs+852 2978 1630Yu Songyu.songgsWe analyze current industrial structures,inventory levels a

4、nd exposure to externaldemand to see what has changed in Chinasability to weather the global economic crisisthis time, compared with the previousdownturns in 1998 and 2001.We believe the Chinese economy is in a betterposition to avoid a hard landing in the shortterm, but will need to rotate the grow

5、th driver tobe more domestic-demand driven forsustainable growth close to the trend level of9.5%-10% year on year over the medium tolong term.Activity growth (GS China Activity Index)GS China FCI (RHS, inverted)means financial conditions easing297 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS R

6、esearch.Indias rural population“A Fortune at TheBottom of the Pyramid”Over 800 million people in rural+852 2978 1260Mark TanPolicy stimuli will likely boost growth in thenext few quarters, but eventually will have toshift towards rebalancing the economic12001000Rural populationUrban populationIndiam

7、ark.tangs+852 2978 2676Pranjul Bhandaripranjul.bhandarigs+91 22 6616 9169Shirla Sumstructure over the long term.India: Four macro themes for 2009The Indian economy will go through achallenging time in 2009. We expect GDPgrowth to slow to 5.8% in FY10 due to rapidlyfalling external demand and slowing

8、 investmentshirla.sumgs+852 2978 6634Fiona Lake (Global Markets)fiona.lakegsdemand. We also expect WPI inflation toaverage 1% in FY10, down sharply from anestimated 9% in FY09. Our strategists remainunderweight on the Indian stock market. In thisbearish environment, we identify four macroSource: Wor

9、ld Development Indicators, CEIC, GS Global ECSResearch.Singapore: A more protracted slowdown inGDP growth than previous episodes+852 2978 6088themes which we think will generate investmentopportunities and provide some downsideSeptember 2000September 1997Real GDP GrowthMarch2000protection in 2009.Cu

10、rrent cycleSingapore: A more protracted slowdownWe are revising down our 2009 GDP growthforecast to -4.0% from -2.2%. Going into 2010,we expect GDP growth to average 2.5% for theyear.-4-6-82001 tech bust1997 Asian crisisForecastMarch2003Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10

11、Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10Source: Consensus Economics, GS Global ECS Research.Important disclosures appear at the back of this documentPage 112Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchAsia Economics AnalystContentsCan growth recover before China rebalances?We analyze current industrial structures, inventory level

12、s and exposure to external demand to see what has changed inChinas ability to weather the global economic crisis this time, compared with the previous downturns in 1998 and 2001.We believe the Chinese economy is in a better position to avoid a hard landing in the short term, but will need to rotate

13、thegrowth driver to be more domestic-demand driven for sustainable growth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10% year on yearover the medium to long term.First published on February 4, 2009Page 3Helen (Hong) QiaoYu SongIndia: Four macro themes for 2009The Indian economy will go through a challenging t

14、ime in 2009. We expect GDP growth to slow to 5.8% in FY10 due torapidly falling external demand and slowing investment demand. In this bearish environment, we identify four macrothemes which we think will generate investment opportunities and provide some downside protection in 2009.First published

15、on January 20, 2009Tushar PoddarPranjul BhandariSingapore: A more protracted slowdownWe are revising down our 2009 GDP growth forecast to -4.0% from -2.2%. Going into 2010, we expect GDP growth toaverage 2.5% for the year. We maintain our view that the Monetary Authority of Singapore will likely eas

16、e monetary policyby conducting a downward re-centering of the SGD NEER policy band, and the latest deterioration in macro data couldprompt an earlier move before the scheduled policy meeting in April.First published on January 19, 2009FCI contribution charts for Asia ex JapanRegional Risk Indicators

17、Statistical AppendixIssue No: 09/02Page 17Enoch FungMark TanPage 21Page 23Page 25February 4, 2009-4-66420-2-4-6-83Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchAsia Economics AnalystCan growth recover before China rebalances?The Chinese economy is experiencing its sharpest slowdown in 30 years, as industrial pro

18、ductiongrowth drops on the back of weaker external demand and real estate investment.We analyze current industrial structures, inventory levels and exposure to external demand tosee what has changed in Chinas ability to weather the global economic crisis this time,compared with the previous downturn

19、s in 1998 and 2001.We believe the Chinese economy is in a better position to avoid a hard landing in the short term,but will need to rotate the growth driver to be more domestic-demand driven for sustainablegrowth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10% year on year over the medium to long term.Policy

20、stimuli will likely boost growth in the next few quarters, but eventually will have to shifttowards rebalancing the economic structure over the long term.In the past few months, the forceful impact of the globaleconomic crisis seems to have been transmitted fromExhibit 1: Industrial production growt

21、h droppedmore and faster this time.industrialized countries to emerging market economies.Chinas growth slowdown, which has been signaled by% chg25Industrial Production% chg10high-frequency data over the past few months in 2008,was validated by the lowest quarterly reading of realGDP growth (of 6.8%

22、yoy in 4Q2008) in 10 years.Despite some recent tentative signs of growthdeceleration beginning to moderate, we believe Chinasgrowth momentum will remain weak before theinfluence of policy stimulus kicks in and the externalenvironment improves later this year.In this article, we examine the macro dyn

23、amics and20151050-5-10% yoy% qoq, sa (RHS)86420-2policy responses in the middle of a sharp and severeslowdown in China and attempt to answer the followingquestions: 1) How does the current growth slump inChina compare to previous cycles? 2) What has changedin China to make it easier or more difficul

24、t to weather theglobal economic crisis this time? 3) How much of theslowdown will be offset by the governments policyresponse to stimulate growth in the short term? 4) Whatwill be needed to rebalance the Chinese economy to keepgrowth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10% over themedium to long term?-

25、151997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Note: growth rates adjusted for the Chinese-New-Year effect.Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 2: So has the electricity productiongrowth so far% chg Electricity Production % chg30 108On balance, we believe the risk of a har

26、d landing inChina is limited, and quarterly growth is likely to surpass7% towards the end of 2009 with the help of policystimuli. However, before China manages to rebalance itseconomy to be more domestic-demand driven, growthwill likely remain below the trend of 9.5%-10% yoy overthe medium term.2010

27、0-10-20% yoy% qoq, sa (RHS)-10A sharp and severe slowdown-30-121997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009China has seen a sharp and severe growth deceleration inindustrial production (IP) accompanied by weakergrowth in investment and exports. IP growth declinedIssue No: 09/02So

28、urce: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research.February 4, 20095040302010045403530252015-10-550-154Goldman Sachs Global ECS Researchsharply in both sequential and year-on-year (yoy) termsin 4Q2008, on the back of lower external demand andAsia Economics AnalystExhibit 3: Real investment growth declined andmore n

29、otably in real estateweak real estate investment. After adjusting for theChinese New Year effect, growth rates in November andDecember 2008 have already decelerated to their lowestlevels since these monthly series began in 1995, at a pace% chg yoyFixed Asset InvestmentGS estimated nominal growthGS e

30、stimated real growthGS estimated real growth in real estatenot seen even during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 and when the tech bubble burst in 2001 (seeExhibit 1). Although judging from the December data,the deceleration in IP growth seems to have eased, webelieve it is too early to concl

31、ude on whether it signalsthat growth deceleration is bottoming out or just atemporary blip on a downward trend based on a singledata point.-10Correspondingly, electricity production, which isJan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08generally a good proxy for IP activities, also contractedvisi

32、bly towards the end of 2008 compared with a yearearlier (see Exhibit 2), reflecting the fact that energy-intensive industrial sectors (e.g., mostly heavy industrysectors) have probably have been hit by a heavier blowfrom the global economic crisis than less energy-Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS Researc

33、h.Exhibit 4: Exports growth will likely remainlackluster for some more timeintensive ones.Meanwhile, the nominal fixed asset investment (FAI)% chg yoy, 3mma5040China Exports% qoq sa ann8060series seems to indicate that despite the recentdeceleration, investment growth has been relativelystable (see

34、Exhibit 3). However, a more careful looksuggests investment growth in real terms has fallenbelow the 20% yoy level in 2008 (compared withaverage growth of 23% in 2005-2007). In addition, realestate investment growth fell into negative territory302010040200-20towards the end of 2008, as property deve

35、lopersresponded to weaker sales and constrained cash flows.-10-20% yoy 3mma% qoq (RHS)-40-60While the decline in property investments only accounts1997199920012003200520072009for part of the slowdown in IP, we believe exportweakness is the other main driver. Within a month,Chinas exports growth has

36、dropped more than 20percentage points (ppt) from 19.1% in October to -2.2%yoy in November 2008. Although Chinas exportscontraction so far still seems milder than some otherSource: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 5: Weaker demand for both consumerand investment goods posed a drag on Chinasexport

37、s growthneighboring economies (e.g., Korea and Taiwan),percentage pointContribution to Exports Growthjudging from past experience of external demandslowdowns in 1997-1998 and 2001 as well as themagnitude of the global economic crisis this time, therisk of seeing further contraction in Chinese export

38、s inthe near future and a sustained period of lacklustergrowth before global demand recovers from its troughremains appreciable (see Exhibit 4).10Compared with previous episodes of export weakness,Chinese exporters are facing more obstacles this time, asexternal demand declines for both consumer and

39、investment goods (see Exhibit 5). In contrast, after theFood, consumer electronics and misc. consumer goodsTextiles & textile articlesRaw materials & base metalsMachinery & (non-consumer) transportation equipmentAsian financial crisis in 1997, the exports growth1Q971Q981Q991Q001Q011Q021Q031Q041Q051Q

40、061Q071Q08slowdown was mainly driven by slower exports ofconsumer goods. At that time, Chinas exports structurewas largely skewed towards consumer goods, theIssue No: 09/02Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research.February 4, 20092015105% yoy22201816141210864205Goldman Sachs Global ECS Researchdemand of

41、which is often sensitive to price/exchange ratechanges. When neighboring countries depreciated theircurrencies after the financial crisis, China maintained itspeg against the USD, which impaired Chinese exportersAsia Economics AnalystExhibit 6: Exports to non-G3 destinations haveprovided a cushion t

42、o Chinas exportsdeceleration so farPercentage Point Contribution to Year-on-year China Exports Growthcompetitiveness in these areas and dragged downChinas exports growth. The second episode of exportsgrowth slump took place after the US tech bubble burstin 2001. Chinas exports of investment goods de

43、celeratedmore significantly than consumer goods, mainly due tothe negative shock on US business capex. On the otherhand, US household balance sheets still looked okay atthe beginning of the housing boom. Now after thecurrent financial crisis has dragged the US and othermajor industrialized economies

44、 into recession, neitherppt, 3mma0-5(adjusted for HK re-exports)USAEUthe business sector nor overseas consumers are ideallyplaced to absorb Chinese exports.-1097989900010203Developed Asia*Rest of the world04 05 060708However, the silver lining of the story is that demand forChinese goods from outsid

45、e the G-3 seems to have heldup better than back in 1999 and 2001 (see Exhibit 6).Over the past 12 years, the share of Chinas exportsgoing to the U.S. and developed Asia (Japan, Korea andTaiwan) has declined from 32% and 27% in 1997 to 19%and 17% respectively in 2008. Meanwhile, exports goingto non-t

46、raditional export destinations (such as the MiddleEast, Latin America and Africa) increased from 18% to41% of total exports over the same period. Deepenedtrade diversification and a slower deceleration outsidethe G-3 economies have provided a cushion to Chinasexports deceleration so far, although it

47、 remains unclearwhether it can hold up for longer when the ripple effectsof the economic crisis passes on to more countries.Lastly, official data suggests the retail sales of consumergoods has held up reasonably well in both nominal and* Developed Asia includes Japan, Korea and Taiwan.Source: CEIC,

48、GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 7: Retail sales growth has held up wellso far but faces some headwindPersonal Expenditure and Real Retail SalesReal retail salesReal per capita personal expenditureParkson same store salesreal growth terms over the past few quarters (see Exhibit200320042005200620072008

49、7), although there is more downward pressure on privateconsumption from weaker expenditure and incomegrowth and a negative wealth effect (see Lower growthand inflation in the near termrevising down our 2008and 2009 GDP growth and inflation forecasts, AsiaEconomics Flash, November 15, 2008). With par

50、ticularlyweak sales of discretionary goods, our China retailanalyst expects the slowdown trend to continue, amidwarnings on sales revenue declines of department storesin 4Q2008 (see China: Retail: November retails salesrebound from October, but slowdown trend unlikely toreverse soon, December 15, 20

51、08).What is different this time around?Arguably, the Chinese economy is at a different positiontoday than it was in either1998 or 2001. We believesome factors will help limit the risks of a hard landing inChina, while other factors increase the challenges Chinafaces in keeping its high growth in the

52、 medium term. Wewill review these changes in detail so as to gauge theirpotential impact on growth.Issue No: 09/02Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research.First, Chinas industrial structure is more skewedtowards heavy industry nowadays than it was a fewyears back. In the past 10 years, heavy industry ha

53、soutpaced light industry in growth almost consistently, asa result of rising demand in the real estate and autosectors in China and investment booms overseas. Now,after the domestic property market frenzy has drawn toan end and major industrialized economies have slumpedinto recessions, heavy indust

54、ry in China has beendecelerating faster than light industry over the past fewmonths (see Exhibit 8). However, we believe theinfrastructure-focused fiscal stimulus package and thegovernments industry development plan will likelyprovide a cushion to further downside risks in heavyindustry.Secondly, th

55、e smaller and more profitable state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector will likely help theadjustment process. The share of state-owned andholding firms in total value added of industrialFebruary 4, 200925201510507060504030206Goldman Sachs Global ECS Researchproduction has come down from almost 60% in 19

56、99 to34% in 2007. In total output terms, the proportion ofAsia Economics AnalystExhibit 8: Heavy industry received a greaterblow from the global economic crisisSOEs has declined even further. Since the non-SOEsector generally has higher productivity and is moreflexible in structure, we believe the d

57、ecline in the SOEsector may prove helpful in coping with problems atdifficult times. In addition, even for the remaining SOEs,their balance sheets are in a much stronger position thanthey were in 1998, when low profits and high personnelredundancy undermined SOEs capability of exercisingthe governme

58、nts counter-cyclical adjustments.A related concern is that as the Chinese economybecomes more market-oriented and complex, the powerof the governments direct control and command over% yoy, 3mmaIndustrial ProductionLight IndustryHeavy Industryfirms (especially banks) behavior has declined, which19992

59、000200120022003200420052006200720082009reduced the effectiveness of the counter-cyclicaltightening in overheating periods. Nevertheless, webelieve it will be easier for the government to carry outfiscal stimulus and monetary expansion in a downturn,given that infrastructure construction projects are

60、 mostlydriven by government agencies and facilitated bycommercial bank loans.Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 9: The inventory stock level is muchlower now than in 1998 or 2001China: Inventory Stock% of GDPThird, the inventory stock level of industrial firmsnow is more favorable than in