通货膨胀与失业理论

1、六、通货膨胀与失业理论六、通货膨胀与失业理论INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENTInflation: Its Causes and Costs通货膨胀：nInflation is an increase in the overall price level. It is a continuous increase versus a once-and-for-all increase in prices. Inflation deals with the increase in the average of prices and not just significant incr

2、eases in the price of a few goods.The Causes of InflationnInflation is an economy-wide monetary phenomenon that concerns, first and foremost, the value of the economys medium of exchange.The Causes of InflationnTo understand the causes of inflation we must understand the concepts of money supply, mo

3、ney demand, and monetary equilibrium.nIn the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.Money Supply and Money DemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice Level01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Money Supp

4、ly and Money DemandQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money

5、 DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumvalue of

6、 moneyMoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumprice levelEquilibriumvalue of moneyMoneydemandThe Effects of Monetary Injection货币注入效应nSuppose the Fed injects money into the

7、economy by buying government bonds. The supply of money curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium value of money decreases. The equilibrium price level increases.The Effects of MonetaryInjectionThe Effects of MonetaryInjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice Level01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/4

8、11.3324The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1The Effects of Monetary InjectionQu

9、antity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS11. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS21. An increase in the money supply.Th

10、e Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS21. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1

11、M1MS22. .decreases the value of money .1. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS22. .decreases the value of money .3. andincreasesthe pricelevel.1. An increase in the mone

12、y supply.Hyperinflation恶性通货膨胀nHyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month. HyperinflationnHyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay for its spending.HyperinflationnNote the relationship between the growth rate of the quantity of mon

13、ey and the price level.HyperinflationHungary匈牙利匈牙利Money supply19251924192319221921Price level100,00010,0001,000100Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)Austria奥地利奥地利Price level100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Money supplyIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)HyperinflationGermany德国德国1100 trillion1 million10 billion1 tril

14、lion100 million10,00010019251924192319221921Price levelMoneysupplyPoland波兰波兰MoneysupplyPrice levelIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)10010 million100,0001 million10,0001,00019251924192319221921Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)Hyperinflation and Inflation TaxnWhen the government raises revenue by printing money, it is sai

15、d to levy an inflation tax. An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.Hyperinflation and Inflation TaxnThe inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in government spending.The Fisher Effect费雪效应nAccording to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflatio

16、n rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount.nThe real interest rate stays the same.The Fisher EffectnAccording to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount.nThe real interest rate stays the same.Nominal interest rate = Rea

17、l interest rate + Inflation rateThe Fisher EffectnWhen the Fed increases the rate of money growth, the result is both a higher inflation rate and a higher nominal interest rate.需求拉上型通货膨胀ASPAD0YAD1AD2AD3AD4P1P2P3P4Y1Y2Y3成本推进型通货膨胀ASPYAS1ADP1P2Y1Y2AS2The Costs of InflationnShoeleather costs（皮鞋成本）nMenu

18、costs（菜单成本）nRelative price variability（相对价格变动）nTax distortions（税收扭曲）nConfusion and inconvenience（混乱与不方便）nArbitrary redistribution of wealth（任意的财富再分配）Shoeleather Costs（皮鞋成本）nShoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.Shoeleather CostsnIn

19、flation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings.Shoeleather CostsnLess cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.Shoeleather CostsnExtra trips to the bank take time away from productive activiti

20、es.Menu CostsnMenu costs are the costs of changing prices.Menu CostsnDuring inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices.Menu CostsnThis is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive activities.Relative-Price Variability（相对价格变动）nInflation

21、distorts relative prices. nConsumer decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate resources to their best use.Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionnInflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this type of income. nWith progressive taxation（累进税）, capita

22、l gains are taxed more heavily.Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionnThe income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income,（所得税把名义利率作为储蓄所赚得的收入进行征税） even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation（部分名义利率仅够补偿通货膨胀造成的损失）. nThe after-tax real interest rate falls

23、, making saving less attractive.（税后实际利率下降，导致储蓄失去吸引力）Confusion and Inconvenience（混乱与不方便）nWith rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.物价上涨使人们对不同时期的收入、成本和利润难以进行比较。Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth（任意的财富再分配）nUnanticipated inflation redistributes wealt

24、h between debtors and creditors.不可预期的通货膨胀会造成债务人和债权人之间的财富再分配。nThis may result in wealth transfers that would not otherwise be acceptable.失业概念和分类n失业是指有劳动能力并愿意就业的劳动者找不到工作。失业可分为三种状况：n磨擦性失业，是指因工作变动过程为寻找工作转换而产生的失业，它被看作是一种求职性失业。n结构性失业，是指因经济结构的变化，产业兴衰转移造成的失业。n周期性失业，是指经济周期性衰退所造成的失业。Natural Rate of Unemployme

25、nt自然失业率nThe natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.nIt is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.自然失业率n自然失业率是指在充分就业条件下的失业率，主要是指磨擦性失业和结构性失业。二战以来，自然失业率不断上升，其原因是：n产业结构调整速度加快，这是科技进步的结果。n失业救济金不断增加，不少国家失业与就业之间的效用差别越来越小。n

26、最低工资不断上升，往往高于市场出清水平。n劳动供给结构变化，妇女就业率提高。Cyclical Unemployment周期性失业nCyclical unemployment refers to the fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.围绕着自然失业率的波动nIt is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle（商业周期）.Measuring Unemployment失业统计nUnemployment is measured by

27、 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)美国劳动统计局. It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month.Measuring UnemploymentnThe BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.Measuring UnemploymentnA person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous wee

28、k working at a paid job.Measuring UnemploymentnA person is considered unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, looking for a job, or waiting for the start date of a new job.Measuring UnemploymentnA person in none of these categories is not in the labor force. Measuring UnemploymentnThe labor

29、force is the total number of workers, which includes both the number employed plus the number unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentnThe labor-force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force.Measuring UnemploymentnThe unemployment rate is calculated as the pe

30、rcentage of the labor force that is unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentnThe unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.Unemployment rate =Number unemployedLabor force100奥肯定律n失业意味着愿意就业的劳动力资源没有得到充分的利用，从而会使实际产出增长率低于充分就业时的产出增长率。n美国经济学家奥肯(Arthur M. Okun)根据美国历年的经

31、验数据发现：实际产出增长率每低于潜在产出增长率3个百分点，就会引起失业率上升1个百分点。奥肯定律描绘了产出增长率与失业率之间的关系。n奥肯定律表明，要保持失业率不变，实际产出增长率与潜在产出增长率之间的缺口不能扩大。Why is there unemployment?nIn an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed.Why the Ideal Is MissednMi

32、nimum-wage laws最低工资法nUnions工会nEfficiency wages效率工资nJob search职业搜寻Minimum-Wage LawsnWhen the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.Minimum-Wage LawsQuantity of Labor0WageMinimum-Wage LawsQuantity of Labor0LabordemandWage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage L

33、awsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWageMinimum wage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWageMinimum wageLDLS LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0Surplus of labor = UnemploymentLabordemandWageMin

34、imum wageLDLS LaborsupplyUnions and Collective BargainingnA union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. nA union is a type of cartel.Unions and Collective BargainingnThe process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called col

35、lective bargaining.Unions and Collective BargainingnA strike （罢工）will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.Unions and Collective BargainingnA strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.罢工会使有些工人更好，而另一些工人更坏。nWorkers in unions reap the benefits of colle

36、ctive bargaining, while workers not in the union bear some of the costs.Unions and Collective BargainingnBy acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above equilibrium wages for their members.nUnion workers earn 10 to 20 percent mor

37、e than nonunion workers.Are unions good or bad for the economy?nCritics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable.批评者认为工会使劳动力配置失效和不公平 Wages above the competitive level reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment. Some workers benefit at the ex

38、pense of other workers.Are unions good or bad for the economy?nAdvocates of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote to the market power of firms that hire workers.nThey claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers concerns.长期合同理论n由于工会的存在，劳资双方谈判成本较高，所以一

39、般都倾向于签订长期合同。n在合同期内，名义工资一般固定不变。也就是说，在长期合同中，雇员的名义工资是刚性的。n如果合同期内出现经济衰退，这时雇主不能通过降低工资来扩大劳动力需求，这就使劳动力市场处于非出清状态，造成部分失业。内部人-外部人理论n内部人是指那些已在企业工作的人，外部人是指那些想到企业工作的人。n内部人在工资决定上有讨价还价的能力，这是因为企业要调换内部人和雇佣外部人是要花费成本的，这些成本包括：根据合同条款，解雇内部人需作出补偿；解雇内部人会引起其他内部人的不满；雇佣外部人需花费更多的培训费用等。n内部人会团结起来，排挤外部人，这样就可以使内部人将工资稳定在高于市场出清的水平。效

40、率工资理论n为刺激员工的高效率，雇主会主动把工资维持在一个高于劳动力市场出清的水平，这是因为：n高工资会增加员工怠工偷懒的机会成本；高工资可以吸引优秀人才；高工资可以减少员工变换工作的行为；高工资可以让员工心态平衡；高工资可以减少员工联合的动机。n高于市场出清的高工资，会导致劳动力市场总是存在着过剩的劳动供给，失业也会持续存在。Theory of Efficiency Wages效率工资理论nEfficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. n

41、The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.Theory of Efficiency WagesnA firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Health: Better paid workers eat better and thus are more productive. Worker

42、Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.Theory of Efficiency WagesnA firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort. Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better poo

43、l of workers to apply for jobs.二元劳动力市场理论n我们可以把劳动力市场划分为第一市场和第二市场。n第一市场工资较高，劳动条件较好，工作岗位有保障，职业前景较好。第二市场工资较低，工作条件差，工作具有不稳定性和暂时性。n这两个劳动力市场的求职者一般不会相互流动，这是因为第一市场的求职者不愿光顾第二市场；而第二市场的求职者无法进入第一市场。n如果出现周期性失业，第一市场的失业率要明显低于第二市场，因为第一市场更多地受到制度的保护。Unemployment and Inflation nThe natural rate of unemployment depends

44、on various features of the labor market. Examples include minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, and the role of efficiency wages.Unemployment and Inflation nThe inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.The Phillips CurvenSociety faces a shor

45、t-run tradeoff（交替） between unemployment and inflation. If policymakers expand aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation. If they contract aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.The Phillips CurvenThe Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips CurvenThe Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations结合 of unemployment and inflation