C题养老金制度的改革第一问的程序

1、2011数学建模竞赛c题程序x=566632745755769789985111013131428178219202150229226013149433851455809624168547656877210007113741256714332166141922822844264042968832074;>>y=diff(x);>>plot(y)>>a=lpc(y,3)a=1.0000-1.23370.23020.1088>>estx=filter(0-a(2:end),1,y);>>e=y-estx;>>subplot(1

2、22);>>plot(lags,acs)预测误差的自相关函数-40-20020402011数学建模竞赛c题(1)数据初步处理：对一般的时间序列而言为得到较为平稳的序列都会对原来的序列进行取对和差分处理并对新的数列进行白噪声检验cdata=566,632,745,755,769,789,985,1110,1313,1428,1782,1920,2150,2292,2601,3149,4338,5145,5809,6241,6854,7656,8772,10007,11374,12567,14332,16614,19228,22844,26404,29688,32074;>>

3、;x=log(cdata);>>plot(x)>>x1=diff(x);>>subplot(221)>>plot(x)>>subplot(222)>>plot(x1)x1(t3.532.521.510.500.350.30.250.20.151020300102030400.20.150.10.050-0.05-0.1-0ampleAutocorrelationFunction(ACF)0.10.054000SamplePartialAutocorrelationFunctiona=ar(x2,2

4、)Discrete-timeIDPOLYmodel:A(q)y(t)=e(t)A(q)=1-0.2034qA-1-0.02065qA-2y2(1)=-0.0159;>>y2(2)=0.0383;>>fori=3:32y2(i)=0.2034*y2(i-1)+0.02065*y2(i-2);end>>plot(x2(1:32)>>holdon>>plot(y2)(2)真实值与可能值比较3.532.521.510.50-0.520151050-54X10:I1c-#一t_*件圭并Z05101520253035-20-1001020程序如下

5、预测误差自相关函数0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10-40-30-20-10010203040程序如下x=566,632,745,755,769,789,985,1110,1313,1428,1782,1920,2150,2292,2601,3149,4338,5145,5809,6241,6854,7656,8772,10007,11374,12567,14332,16614,19228,22844,26404,29688,32074;>>y=log(x)；x1=diff(y);a=1.0000-0.92600.03440.01579£OS92OS9LOL90999L9Z898696OL90L(l¥j-/x;ss);o|d«uop|oq«dx)g|d&#