国际贸易专业外文翻译----金融自由化与货币政策东亚合作

1、Financial Liberalization and Monetary PolicyCooperation in East AsiaAuthor：Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano and Augustine H. H. TanNationality: SingaporeJournal time: May 2007,P2-3,5-7,21It is well recognized that strong domestic financial markets can play a key role in economic gro

2、wth and development. Sound financial institutions and well-functioning markets facilitate the mobilization and efficient allocation of savings, thereby improving productivity and contributing to growth (Levine 2004). This is particularly important for East Asia in view of the high saving rates of th

3、e regional countries. The limited development of local financial markets and their small fragmented nature have also led to a large part of Asian savings being intermediated outside the region. Surplus savings have mostly been channeled to the US and the funds return to Asia through US direct and po

4、rtfolio investment. Fostering domestic financial markets and regional financial integration is important because it not only facilitates theintermediation of Asian savings within the region, but also attracts foreign investment in instruments denominated in the domestic currency. Such alternative so

5、urces of funding would reduce East Asias reliance on foreign currency borrowing and concomitantly, the risk exposure of the region to maturity and currency mismatches.However, as the countries in East Asia deregulate their financial sectors and develop their capital markets, a key issue that confron

6、ts policymakers is the greater complexity of risks that is injected into the financial system. In particular, capital account liberalization heightens the speed and magnitude of international spillovers and may potentially increase the vulnerability of individual countries to external financial shoc

7、ks. Many studies have found empirical evidence that financial development and in particular, financial openness can increase a countrys vulnerability to crisis (see inter alia Rajan 2005 and Kaminsky and Reinhart 2003). In fact, considerable blame for the past financial cum currency crises has been

8、placed on improper sequencing of liberalization.Over the past quarter century, the combination of a fixed exchange rate with an open capital account, has proven lethal in small open economies, particularly in emerging markets with weak financial systems and regulatory institutions. The fault seems t

9、o point to policies that opened the capital account prematurely while keeping the exchange rate rigid. Such a combination has often led to massive capital inflows thathave overwhelmed nascent financial systems, prompting consumption and asset boom-bust cycles. When we further combine a fixed exchang

10、e rate and premature opening of the capital account with a weakly structured and regulated domestic financial sector, currency crisis quickly turn into financial crisis and perhaps to full-blown economic and political crisis. Such a scenario plagued Latin America throughout the 1980s and 1990s. It t

11、ook the crisis of 1997-98 to demonstrate that Asia was also not immune to these same policy inconsistencies.Sufficiently liberalized and developed domestic financial sectors are necessary to absorb and allocate capital inflows to their most efficient uses. Flexible exchange rates allow necessary int

12、ernational relative price adjustments and help allow asset markets to clear (Obstfeld 2004). Without exchange rate flexibility, economic adjustments will take place in terms of the price level, output or employment, or asset market volatility (Frankel and Rose 1995). Unless domestic financial sector

13、s are sufficiently developed and exchange rates sufficiently flexible, capital account liberalization is premature and effectively neutralizes the stability benefits of fixed exchange rates. That this does so at a time when the domestic financial infrastructure can ill-afford massive surges and reve

14、rsals in liquidity and financing, has prompted a number of economists to remind policymakers and professional economists alike of the dangers of the open-economy trilemma.Fully-open capital accountsrequire both domestic financial liberalization and exchange rate flexibility. This paper advocates the

15、 optimally cascading of financial liberalization that is consistent across three dimensions: extent of domestic financial liberalization; the degree of exchange rate flexibility; and the scope of capital account liberalization.2.1 Optimal SequencingUnder optimal sequencing, liberalization occurs seq

16、uentially. Let Ai A1 , An represent the iof n different stages of domestic financialsector liberalization. Let Bi B1 , Bn represent the iof n differentdegrees of exchange rate flexibility. Here, one can think of B1 as a peggedbilateral exchange rate and Bn as a fully floating exchange rate. Finally,

17、let Ci C1 , Cn represent the iof n different stages of capitalaccount liberalization. A strict interpretation of optimal sequencing suggests the following conceptual framework:That is to say, first, a domestic financial sector liberalization program must be developed and implemented, i.e. all n phas

18、es of A are completed. Once domestic financial sector liberalization is fully completed, only then should the degree of exchange rate flexibility be increased. Since it generally recommended that smaller degrees of flexibility should precede full floats, the exchange rate flexibility dimension of fi

19、nancial liberalization is complete when all n degrees of Bth th thare permitted. Finally, once the domestic financial sector is liberalized (i.e., A has gone from A1 to An) and the exchange rate is fully flexible (i.e.,B has gone from B1 to Bn) then and only then, should steps be taken toliberalize

20、the capital account, C. As with domestic financial sector liberalization, capital account liberalization has its baby steps (something closer to C1) like FDI or long-term investments for infrastructuralpurposes, its more advanced like the full liberalization of short-term portfolio flows to its most

21、 fully liberalized and controversial phases, the allowance of short-term speculative flows, such as those from hedge funds (something closer to Cn).In practice, sequencing is subject to considerable leakage. As markets grow and domestic financial sectors develop, there will be some degree of capital

22、 flow across borders even with the best of capital controls. But at the same time, the costs of capital controls enable disparities in productivity and competitiveness between global and insular markets to persist. Global markets are fiercely competitive and offer the truest test of productivity. It

23、 is highly unlikely that domestic financial sectors might develop the same quality and character of global financial markets on their own.2.2 Optimal CascadingIn contrast to optimal sequencing, the conceptual framework of optimal cascading requires decisions regarding the extent of domesticfinancial

24、 liberalization, the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the extent of capital account liberalization are taken simultaneously. Let the ith phase of a liberalization program be given by (Ai , Bi , Ci), then thedesign of an optimal cascading program can be represented by the following rubric:Duri

25、ng nascent stages of domestic financial development, rigid exchange rates and heavy capital controls are essential and will minimize the odds of boom-bust cycles and financial crisis. However, as the domestic financial sector matures, countries should make attempts to increase exchange rate flexibil

26、ity and allow for longer term and stable capital inflows that serve to increase productivity, technology transfer and competitiveness.In latter stages, domestic financial sector liberalization will need both increased exchange rate flexibility, to help with risk management and price stability, as we

27、ll as later-stage capital account liberalization, such as capital outflows for the purpose of portfolio diversification and the establishment of foreign banking branches and non-bank financial institutions. The internationalization of financial services which opens the domestic sector to foreign fin

28、ancial institutions frequently results in capacity building. Importantly, the commercial presence of foreign service providers normally increases the pressure to strengthensupervisory and regulatory framework.Once such a liberalization program is fully mature, the degree of exchange rate flexibility

29、 can be increased further. Mature domestic financial systems will be able to utilize exchange rate volatility to help adjust to shocks, smooth consumption, and help maintain price stability. At the same time, it is unrealistic to expect that domestic financial liberalization can ever fully mature wi

30、thout exposure to global financial markets and capital flows, particularly in countries without a long history of private financial banking and established access to offshore banking. In addition, deeper capital account liberalization will require increased exchange rate flexibility and liberalized

31、domestic financial markets.Chinas liberalization program represents the classic case of optimal cascading. From 1994 until late 2005, the yuan was pegged to the US Dollar at a fixed rate of 8.28RMB to US$1. Citing underdeveloped domestic financial markets and legal institutions, the Chinese central

32、bank argued unambiguously that its banking system was not ready to handle a flexible yuan. While the yuan remained fixed to the US dollar, China did not completely restrict capital flows. China has been the recipient of considerable FDI capital flows and other types of capital flows that have leaked

33、 in through the considerable presence of foreign branch operations and outsourcing operations. Most recently, the Chinese central bank has allowed the yuan to float within a tight band while at thesame time domestic financial sector reforms and a measured relaxation of capital controls continues (Ei

34、chengreen 2005). These simultaneous and holistic policy choices characterize the measured and gradual face of optimal cascading. While it is too early to tell if the specific types of capital account liberalization enacted by China are wise given the stage of domestic sector development and limited

35、degree of exchange rate flexibility, it is clear that China had adopted the prudent and realistic strategy of optimal cascading.8We identify the risks associated with the liberalization attempts of Chinabeing an economically large and influential countryas representing the greatest challenge to the

36、region. Even with successful financial liberalization in China, the massive capital flows that will be generated can destabilize the region. It is thus important for countries in East Asia, including China, to optimally cascade financial liberalization by simultaneously determining the extent of dom

37、estic financial liberalization, the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the scope of capital account liberalization consistent with underlying domestic institutional infrastructures. In addition, financial stability can be promoted via regional policy coordination. We are of the view that this w

38、ill be most effective when approached as a series of nested sequencing problems that would take East Asia through increasingly intensiveinformal modes of monetary policy cooperation: starting with weak forms of cooperation that emphasize non-monetary cooperation and sovereign institutional reforms t

39、o more intensive modes of informal cooperation that can accelerate the development of deeper regionalism and synchronization, such as the adoption of common policy objectives, and finally to the most intensive mode of informal cooperation, the adoption of common policy regimes.金融自由化与货币政策东亚合作作者：周惠关等国

40、籍：新加坡出处及类别：新加坡管理学院经济和统计工作文件系列, Http:/ 发表时间及页码：2007年5月 P2-3,5-7,21人们都清楚地认识到，强有力的国内金融市场能够在经济增长和发展中发挥关键作用。健全的金融机构和运作良好的市场有利于储蓄的调动和有效分配，从而提高生产率和促进经济增长（利文2004）。这一点对东亚高储蓄率的区域国家尤其重要。有限发展当地金融市场和小型分散的性质也导致了很大一部分储蓄流到亚洲以外的地区。盈余的储蓄大多被输送到美国，美国通过直接投资和证券投资又将资金返回亚洲。促进国内金融市场和区域金融一体化是重要的，因为它不仅有利于亚洲区域内的储蓄调节，

41、而且还吸引了外国以本国货币的名义投资。这种替代资金来源将减少东亚的依赖外币借款，与此同时，减少该区域对成熟（经济体）和货币错配的风险暴露。然而，由于东亚国家的金融部门放松管制和发展其资本市场，决策者面临的一个关键问题更加复杂的风险正在注入金融体系。特别是，资本帐户自由化加剧了国际外溢速度和规模，且有可能增加个别国家面对外部金融冲击的脆弱性。许多学者发现的实证表明，金融发展，特别是金融开放可以提高一个国家在危机中的脆弱性（见2005 拉詹和卡明斯、赖因哈特2003）。事实上，过去金融暨?货币危机相当程度上可以归咎于次序不当的自由化。在过去四分之一世纪中，固定汇率下开放资本帐户在小型开放经济体中已

42、被证明是致命的，尤其是金融体系和监管机制弱的新兴市场。错误似乎指向过早地开放资本帐户的同时保持僵硬汇率的政策。这种组合往往导致大量资本流入，使新兴的金融体系不堪重负，促使消费和资产繁荣与萧条交替循环。当我们进一步结合了固定汇率、过早开放资本帐户和国内金融部门监管的脆弱，货币危机很快演变成金融危机，更或许是成熟的经济和政治危机。这样一个情景困扰拉美整个80年代和90年代。1997-98年的危机表明亚洲也不能幸免于这种相同的不协调政策。充分开放和发展的国内金融部门对吸收和分配资本流入以发挥最有效的用途是必要的。灵活的汇率允许必要的国际相对价格调整，并帮助清理资产市场（奥布斯特菲尔德2004） 。如

43、果汇率不灵活性，经济调整将体现在价格水平，产出或就业，或资产市场的波动上（弗兰克尔和罗斯1995）。除非国内金融部门充分发展，且汇率有足够的灵活性，否则，资本帐户自由化则为时过早，将有效地中和固定汇率带来的稳定好处。当国内的金融基础设施不能够承受巨大的冲击，不能够承受流动性与融资的逆转时就会发生，促使一些经济学家提醒决策者和其他专业经济学家开放经济下三难的危险。完全的资本帐户要求国内金融自由化和汇率的灵活性。本文主张金融自由化的最佳阶式渗透，是一致的三个方面：一定程度的国内金融自由化；一定的汇率弹性程度；一定范围的资本帐户自由化。2.1最优序列根据最优排序，自由化有序进行。Ai A1 , An

44、代表第i个不同阶段的国内金融部门的自由化。让Bi B1 , Bn代表第i个不同程度的汇率弹性。在这里，可以认为B1是双边汇率挂钩和BN是一个完全的浮动汇率。最后，用Ci C1 , Cn代表第i个不同阶段的资本帐户自由化。一个严格解释的最优序列表明了以下概念框架：这就是说，第一，国内金融部门自由化的方案必须制定和实施，即所有N个阶段完成。一旦国内金融部门自由化全面完成，然后汇率弹性程度才可以有所增加。因为一般建议较小程度的灵活性优于完全浮动，当所有n个程度的B都被允许后，金融自由化的汇率灵活性才算完成。最后，当且仅当国内金融部门全部自由化（即已经从A1到An）和汇率完全实现灵活（即B已经从B1到Bn）时，才应该逐步采取放宽资本帐户C。随着国内金融部门的自由化，资本帐户自由化有其婴儿般的步伐（接近于C1 ）如外商直接投资或长期投资为了基础设施用途