国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly课件

1、国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyAluminum Market AnalysisGroup 3 魏会地魏会地, 李春晖李春晖, 邓丽娇邓丽娇, 彭湃彭湃, 李李艳超艳超, 高謇高謇, 戴亚戴亚, 王喜越王喜越商务英语商务英语061班班国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.Foundamental analysis 1.1Quotation 1.2 Supply and demand 1.3 Related foreign futures contract -Aluminum in LME 1.4 Related economic index

2、 1.5 Effects of related commodities 1.6 Related events 1.7 Conclusions about the economic situation 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly上海期货交易所期货合约行情 2009年06月08日品品种种交割交割月月前结算前结算今开盘今开盘最高价最高价最低价最低价收盘价收盘价结算价结算价涨跌涨跌1涨跌涨跌2成交成交手手持仓手持仓手/变化变化0912135701345013495133001345013425-120-145842480029010011361013540135401

3、33701345013490-160-120138990461002136801353013530134801348013485-200-1951262261.1Quotation SH aluminum 1001 is quoted as 13490 Yuan per ton in 2009,6,8国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.2 Supply and demand The supply is in excess of the demand. There are many aluminum left unused in the home market. Mo

4、reover, a great deal of aluminum are imported. However, the current aluminum prices temporarily deviate from the relationship between supply and demand and there is a bullish trend in the market. The present situation is in favor of going long.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.3 Aluminum in LME Name L

5、ME Al 03 highest：1655.0 Lowest：1595.0 Newest：1638.5 Purchasing price：1637.0 Selling price：1640.0 Position：825480 ton Inventory: 4,274,550 ton国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.4 Related economic index- Dow Jones Industrial Average 品种名称 开盘 最高 最低 最新 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 日增仓 昨收道琼工业 8764.83 8802.28 8725.27 8735.47

6、-0.33% 63738292 - 0 8764.49 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyNASDAQ 品种名称 开盘 最高 最低 最新 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 日增仓 昨收纳斯达克 1850.48 1859.22 1846.34 1850.70 0.45% 576925696 - 0 1842.40 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyTop Countries in GDP,2008(billion dollars) country GDP increasing rate - EU 18930 1.5% 1USA 14330 1.4% 2J

7、apan 4844 0.7% 3China 4222 9.0% 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly09 GDP The first season of 2009, GDP of the USA is $3518.875 billion, decreasing by 2.6% . The first season of 2009, GDP of 16 European countries is 239.1297, decreasing by 2.5%; while that of 27countries is 2929.9779 billion, decreasing

8、by 2.4%. In china, GDP is ￥6574.5billion, increasing 6.1%.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyCPI&PPI In May 2009, Chinas CPI decreased by 1.4% and PPI decreased by 7.2% compared with last May. In the USA, CPI in April was close to last month, but decreased 0.7% compared with last year. PPI in April incre

9、ased 0.3% and decreased 1.2% in March. CPI in Europe increase 0.6%, but remained the same in May. And PPI kept decreasing by 4.6%, made it the greatest drop in annual rate. 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyConclusion The USA and Europe are experiencing economic depreciation, the increasing rate is slow

10、ing down, and wont recover soon. China experienced less recession, and will keep increasing.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.5 Effects of related commodities The futures prices of Copper, zinc, and aluminum are closely related and share correspondent tendency. Because the prices of copper and zinc te

11、nd to increase as shown below, the price of aluminum may also increase in the future. 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly The price of SH futures copper 1001 from 13th ,May to 10th ,June saw an increase.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly The price of SH futures zinc 1001 from 13th ,May to 10th ,June also saw

12、 an increase.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.6 Related events The dollar has weakened in international currency trading. Russia stopped supplying aluminum to Asia. The policy of supporting automobile industry in china increases the sales of cars and demand of aluminum.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly

13、Funds take part in the aluminum futures exchange. American automobile industry, represented by GM, is seriously weakened during the economic recession. Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Promotion Planning was passed on 2，25 of 2009有色金属产业调整和振兴规划 The holding of Large reserves.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly1.

14、7Conclusion On the whole , the advantages outweigh the disadvantages in terms of economic situation. So, it is advisable to go long.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly2 Technical analyses 2.1价格分析-日K线（1）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-日K线（2）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-周K线（1）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMa

15、rketAnaly价格分析-周K线（2）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-月K线（1）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly价格分析-月K线（2）国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly2.2沪铝1001日K线图09/5/13-09/06/10国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly沪铝1001周K线图08/08/29-09/06/10国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnaly沪铝1001月K线图05/04/28-09/06/10国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarket

16、Analy2.3 The analysis of the price of the aluminum: At present, the price line of the aluminum is upward. We can analysis it withthe following candlestick charts. 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyResistance line Support line With the help of the daily candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the

17、 resistance line. The two lines form the upward parallelogram (平行四边形)。国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyWith the help of the weekly candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines are upward together, so they form the wedge（楔形）Resistance line 国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketA

18、nalyResistance line Support line With the help of the monthly candlestick chart, we draw the resistance line and the support line. The resistance line is upward, while the support line is horizontal.国际期货市场运作第3组AluminumMarketAnalyThe short-term price trend of the aluminum is upward, the medium-term price trend and the long-term pri