伊朗油气市场IranianMarketAnalysis-OpportunityandChanllenge

1、Iranian MarketWorkshop 2015Opportunity & ChallengeBy: heglian-Oil and Gas Sector# 2Overview1Analysis2Entry Strategies3Contents# 31. OverviewAt a GlanceFull Name:Islamic Republic of IranCapital:TehranArea:1,648,000 sq km (636,293 sq miles)Population(m):77.1 (2013)President:Hassan RouhaniCurrency:Iran

2、ian Rial (IR) ($1 = IR 29,856)Religions:89% Shia Muslim, 10% Sunni Muslim, 1% Zoroastrian, Jewish, Christian, BahaiLanguages:Farsi (official) Kurdish (other) Azeri (other)International organizations:Arab League, IAEA, IMF, OIC, OPEC, WTO (observer), UN# 41. OverviewEconomyIrans economic landscape ha

3、s long been dominated by the challenges posed by subsidies and sanctions. Oil and gas exports have historically dominated government revenues, but these have dropped to less than half the level of 2011 since the US and EU introduced tighter sanctions against Irans energy sector since 2011.Irans oil

4、and gas sector remains critical to the countrys economic prospects.# 51. OverviewOil and Gas2008200920102011201220132014Nominal GDP ($bn)350.6360.6419.1541.1398.0366.3405.5GDP per capita ($)4,8574,9275,6387.200*5.2294.7515.193Real GDP growth (annual change, %)0.64.05.92.7-5.6-1.71.5Government revenu

5、e (% of GDP)25.423.624.219.715.013.912.4Government total expenditure (% of GDP)24.722.621.219.515.314.814.9Total government debt (gross, % of GDP)10.211.510.610.8Current account balance (% of GDP)11.0Value of oil imports1.1000Value of oil exports86.67090.2118.26

6、7.452.744.5Inflation (%)25.310.812.421.530.535.223.0Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, July 2014# 61. OverviewOil & GasIran holds the worlds fourth-largest deposits of proved crude oil reserves with 157 billion barrels and the worlds second-largest natural gas rese

7、rves with 1,193 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).# 71. OverviewOil & GasOil and Gas Field Allocation# 81. OverviewOil & GasIran ranks among the worlds top 10 oil producers and top 5 natural gas producers. Iran produced almost 3.4 million barrels per day of petroleum and other liquids in 2014 and an estimat

8、ed 5.7 trillion cubic feet of dry natural gas in 2013. Oil export has dropped half as of 2011 in 2014 due to EU & USA Sanctions.# 91. OverviewOil & GasThe South Pars field, accounted for about 40% of Irans gross natural gas production in 2013 and holds almost 40% of Irans total proved natural gas re

9、serves.Currently, phases 1 to 10 and phase 12 are complete, and phases 15-18 are partially complete and have started to produce some natural gas. Phases 15 and 16 are near complete and will eventually produce at their full capacity of 2 Bcf/d of natural gas and 80,000 b/d of condensate. PhaseCapacit

10、y(Bcf/d)Condensate capacity (bbl/d)C or EC Year1140,00020032280,000200234280,0002004563.7158,0002008789280,00020101011280,000after 2022123120,000201413280,000after 202014277,000after 202115280,00020151617280,00020161819277,000after 202020275,000after 20202122277,000after 20212324Total301,184,000 # 1

11、01. OverviewOil & GasIran has the potential to become an important gas supplier to its region, and has established agreements with some of its neighboring countries to export natural gas via planned regional pipelines. Iran-Iraq PipelineIran-Oman PipelineIran- Pakistan PipelineFrom Irans Ilam provin

12、ce to the Iran-Iraq border to supply gas to the Mansourieh power plant. Ongoing.Export 350 Bcf per year of natural gas via pipeline to Oman. Delayed.Construction on the Iranian side is almost complete, while construction on the Pakistani side has been delayed. # 111. OverviewRefineriesIran is the se

13、cond-largest oil-consuming country in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia. Iranian domestic oil consumption is mainly diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil. Oil consumption averaged 1.8 million b/d in 2014.In 2014, Iran imported almost 61,000 b/d of petroleum products, of which 94% was gasoline.Refinery Exp

14、ansion ActivitiesRefinery Crude Distillation Capacity (thousand bbl/d)Abadan400Isfahan375Bandar Abbas330Tehran250Arak250Borzuyeh120Tabriz110Shiraz60Lavan Island60BooAli Sina34Kermanshah22Aras 210Booshehr10Aras 15Yazd3Total2,039Source: Facts Global Energy, December 2014.# 121. OverviewRefineriesRefin

15、eries Allocation# 13Overview1Analysis2Entry Strategies3Contents# 142. Iran Market AnalysisOpportunitiesAfter almost two years of negotiations, the announcement on the 14 July that an agreement has been reached between Iran and the P5+1 that will enable the gradual lifting of crippling sanctions on I

16、ran, has paved the way for a rejuvenation of the Iranian oil and gas industry. The Engineering Market shall accordingly boost.Sanction to Be Settled# 152. Iran Market AnalysisOpportunitiesHuge Potential of MarketTehran had identified nearly 50 oil and gas projects worth $185 billion that it hoped to

17、 sign by 2020.Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Zangeneh stated that the Islamic Republic planned to invest $80 billion over the next 10 years to upgrade and expand its petrochemical sector.Iranian officials have already held meetings with a string of international companies to outline their plans.Ir

18、an is moving forward to refine more of its own oil and upgrade its petrochemical plants.# 162. Iran Market AnalysisOpportunitiesIOCs Re-entryOil majors BP, Shell and Total have declared their interest in returning to Iran if sanctions against Tehrans oil and financial sectors are lifted. Shell assur

19、es Iran of $2bn debt repayment.Iran has been in discussion with representatives from overseas companies, looking into potential investments. Iran is planning to restructure the contracts it offers to international oil companies (IOCs) to make them more attractive for long-term investment.# 172. Iran

20、 Market AnalysisOpportunitiesItaly has become the first EU country to offer large-scale project finance to clients in Iran in the wake of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed on 14 July 2015.Potential Capital Flow InItalian officials confirmed on 9 August that the Italian government has pro

21、mised to provide 3bn ($3.3bn) for construction, infrastructure and industrial projects in Iran. Irans president to visit Italy within weeks.Iran invites Japanese banks to set up operations in Tehran. Invitation made during visit by Japanese delegation let by its economy ministry on 8 August 2015.# 1

22、82. Iran Market AnalysisOpportunitiesPotential Capital Flow InBritish foreign secretary reopens embassy in Tehran, almost four years after it was stormed and shut.UK government officials say Britain is doing initial work to support companies wishing to do business with Iran once sanctions are lifted

23、.French foreign minister completed a visit to Tehran on 29 July, 2015 and invites Iranian president to Paris. France looking to rebuild links with Iran.# 192. Iran Market AnalysisChallengesSanctions are unlikely to be removed until next year, as the deal requires approval by the U.S. Congress. IAEA

24、will continuously monitor Irans nuclear sites and Nuclear inspectors must also confirm that Iran is complying with the deal under the deal reached on 14 July, 2015.IAEA INSPECTIONUncertainty of Sanction# 202. Iran Market AnalysisChallengesOil Price Drop DownThe collapse in oil prices that began last

25、 July, 2014 and is forcing governments to run deficits has snuffed out any optimism, meaning opportunities to win work will become thinner again.Government is short of budget. Example: Iran, Iraq, Venezuela etc.# 212. Iran Market AnalysisChallengesOil Price Drop DownFor several oil relied contries,

26、including Saudi Arabia and Iran it would take a lot more than double what it is now to balance the budget. For Libya it is more than $200 a barrel, higher than the oil price has ever been.Oil-drop pain spread to everywhere. Global Economy & Industry.NOC and IOC cutting cost and investment. Economist

27、s are forecasting oil prices to remain depressed for the foreseeable future.# 22Iran Market AnalysisChallengesFinancing NeededAlmost all foreign involvement in Irans oil and gas fields was terminated in 2011, with the tightening of sanctions. Even Russian firms have withdraw, and multi-billion-dollar contracts with Chinese companies were terminated.Lack of money for Iran. Financial shortages for most of the potential projects in Iran.Severe competition between Contractors globally. How t