俄哈吉白亚五国关税同盟研究及对哈萨克斯坦的国际贸易优势分析

1、俄哈吉白亚五国关税同盟研究及对哈萨克斯坦的国际贸易优势分析CHAPITER ONE: INTRODUCTION1.1Research backgroundThe countries with similar geographic proximity, political system and economic development level establishregional integration organization, which helps to attract foreign investment, eliminates trade barriers, forms large-

2、scale market and promotes enterprises to improve technology. Therefore, more and more countries and regions tendto establish a free trade zone even more integrated customs union, accelerate the reduction of tariff and market accessconditions, to achieve regional trade and investment liberalization.

3、As a regional economic integration organization,Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan custom union has obvious advantages over other integration organizations except theEuropean Union. Theseadvantages aremainlyreflected in theperfection ofthesystem. Thecustoms union committeeis a supranational institution

4、regulating the foreign trade activities by the Belarus, Belarus and Kazakhstan customsunion. Thecustoms union committeehas played an importantrolein theimplementation ofuniformtariff, preferentialtariff policy, tariff quota, non-tariff regulation and control. The perfect laws and regulations are als

5、o the guarantee ofthe success of Russia Belarus Kazakhstan customs union. The customs union codes set up a moretransparent and freeregulation offoreigntradeactivities, which isverybeneficialfor enterprisesin variouscountries. Accordingtoexperts’estimation, as before 2015, the customs union wil

6、l create 400 billion dollar economic effect for Russia, bringingeconomic effect of 16 billion dollars for white Kazakhstan. After the establishment of the Russia Belarus Kazakhstancustoms union, it formed ahugemarket with a population of 170 million. Thishasa hugeappeal for foreign investors.It is o

7、f theoretical and practical significance to study Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan customs union from theperspective of economic effects of trade. This is a further enrichment and supplement to the study of the economicand trade relations between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. As an important trading

8、 partner of Russia, Belarus andKazakhstan, China will naturally pay close attention to the trend of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan customs union.This paper provides a new perspective for the decision makers of the Ministry of Commerce and other relevantdepartments to predict the prospects of economi

9、c and trade relations between China and Russia and Kazakhstan, andprovides a new perspective for the development of a more comprehensive policy.1.2 Concept and characteristics of Customs UnionSince the second half of the century, regional economic integration has become a major trend in internationa

10、leconomiclife. Both developed and developing countries are eager. From theconcept point of view, regional economicintegration isgeographicallyadjacentor similar totwoor morecountriesorregions,basedon certain commoninterests,through consultation and cooperation to develop economic and trade policies,

11、 the conclusion of economic treaties oragreements, as a result of economic integration into a regional economic and trade complex of the process. Thecustoms union is one of the most important forms of economic integration. It means that two or more countries havesignedan agreementtoremovetradebarrie

12、rs,reduceor canceltariffs in mutualtrade. Imports ofgoods tonon-membercountries aresubject toa common tariffrateandtradepolicy, with a certain exclusion. For example, thecustoms unionaims to reduce or eliminate the tariffs between the allies. So the customs union provides that within a certain perio

13、dof time the member states need to adjust their current tariff rates, the transition to a unified tariff rate the customs union provided, thefinalcancellation Tariffs between member statestoachievefreetrade. In viewofforeign countries,Customs Union countries need to formulate a unified trade policya

14、nd tariff rate for non-member countries, and at thesame time need to unify trade protective measures, such as import quotas and health and epidemic preventionindicators. Under normal circumstances, the success of the customs union (such as the European Union) have thefollowing characteristics: (1) t

15、he level of economic development of member countries is not big: This will not be theburden of other members of the countrybecause of the backwardness of a member country s economy, Theleague canrun smoothly on the basis of it. At the same time, the level of economic development means that consumpti

16、on levelsare similar, and trade is more likelyto occur within the customs union. (2) Complementarityof economies in membercountries: economic complementarity means that the alliance has less conflict and increased demand in thecompetitive advantage, which will help strengthen the cooperation of the

17、allies and promote the improvement of theoverall welfare within the customs union. (3) Political mutual trust in member states: political mutual trust foreconomic cooperation to clear the obstacles, the communication between countries more open and clear, to someextent to ensure the sustainability o

18、f the customs union operation.CHAPITER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW2.1 Overview of regional economic integration and customs union theoryThe establishment of Customs Union will inevitablybring about the trade creation effect. The effect refers to thebenefit when the country produces the goods from higher-

19、cost trade countries to lower-cost trade countries. As far asthe Customs Union whose member states are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, the effect willappear when the members’ trade structure is not consistent with their level of the economy. We analyze the tradecreation ef

20、fect by the difference of trade structure leading to the change of trade direction from these countries.In this study, weanalyzethetradecreation effect byanalyzing thetradestructurecoming from thethreecountrieswhich are Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Before the establishment of the Customs Union, t

21、he three countries tradestructure mainly expressed as follows:The trade and trade structure among the member states can be seen from the above table before the establishmentofthecustoms union. In themember states, theRussiahasthelarger economicscaleandthemore developed economiclevel than Belarus and

22、 Kazakhstan. And Russia’s main tradeproducts of export have fuel, ore, chemical products andso on, on which the fuel accounts for a larger proportion. The main export products in Kazakhstan include fuel, oreand other industrial products. The main imported products are mechanical transportation

23、 equipment, other industrialproducts. The main export products in Belarus are fuel, mechanical transportation equipment, other manufacturedgoods and food. The main imported products are fuel, machinery and transport equipment, other manufactured goodsand chemical products.2.2 Empirical LiteratureReg

24、ional economics was formed in 1950s. In 1954, Ding Bogen, the economist of Holland, first proposed thedefinition of economic integration. Holland believes that economic integration is to eliminate human factors thatimpede the most effective economic movement. The most appropriate international econo

25、mic structure is createdthrough mutual cooperation and unification. Theinternationalregional economicintegration mainlyhas thefollowingachievements.In 1950, American economist Jacob Wiener put forward the theory of Customs Union in his representative workthe theory of customs union. Wiener first poi

26、nted out the uncertainty of the early customs union theory, and dividedthe effect of regional economic integration into trade creation and trade transfer. He thinks that whether thecustoms union benefits or not depends on the final result of the two parties, so the quantitative analysis is applied t

27、othe study of the economic effect of the customs union, which lays a solid foundation for the theory of the customsunion. The core of the tariff union theory is to reveal the different economic effects of the Customs Union on theMember States and non-member countries, namely the static effect and th

28、e dynamic effect. The former refers to thetradecreation effect andtradetransfer effect andthelatter mainlyrefers toeconomies ofscaleeffect, investment effectand technological progress effect.CHAPITER THREE: Introduction to the trade situation of the five countries.133.1 Introduction to the five coun

29、tries.133.2 Trade status of the Customs union.153.2.1 Trade structure analysis.153.2.2 Mutual trade within the Customs union .18CHAPITER FOUR: Static and dynamic economic effects of Customs Union .234.1 Comparative advantage index analysis of the static economic effect.234.2 Empirical research based

30、 on Gravity Model.264.3Analysis of the dynamic economic effects of Customs Union.334.3.1Attracting foreign investment .334.3.2 Technology innovation.334.3.3 Comprehensive competitiveness.35CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .375.1 Conclusion s.37CHAPITER FOUR: Static and dynamic economic e

31、ffects of Customs Union4.1 Comparative advantage index analysis of the static economic effectThe revealed comparative advantage index (RCA) is a measure of the comparative advantage of a country. Theanalysis method was firstproposed and used byAmerican economist Barrazain 1989. Later, this index was

32、 constantlyimproved and promoted. Specifically, therevealed comparative advantage index is theshare of an industryor productin the country s exports and the world trade in the industry or products accounted for the world s total trade volumeratio. Among them, i represents products, j represents the

33、country, and RCAij represents the comparative advantagesof the I products of J countries. Xij is the export volume of I products of j countries, and Xj is the total export volumeof j countries. Xi represents exports of the world s first I products, and Xw represents total exports of all products int

34、he world. ID is the degree of international division of labor. The result of RCA multiplied by ID is the ratio of theexport of a certain product to that of the world s first i product.Static economic effects mainly include trade creation effect and trade transfer effect. The reason for the tradecrea

35、tion effect is that the high cost products originally produced at home can be replaced by relatively low costproducts produced by the customs union when the tariff is cancelled. Generally speaking, high cost products will notbe a product of comparative advantage in the country. The trade shift effec

36、t is because a country imports low-costproducts from its allies and imports high cost products from its allies. In other words, the trade diversion effect is dueto the fact that a country imports from the non-allied countries the products of the comparative advantage of theAfrican Union and imports

37、the products from the Allies without the comparative advantage. Therefore, the staticeconomic effect of customs union can be analyzed from comparative advantage.ConclusionsIn this paper, firstly, thehistoryof CIS integration is reviewed, andthe operation mechanism of the five countriescustoms union

38、is introduced. Secondly, the paper analyzes the trade situation of Customs Union in five countries.Thirdly, the paper calculates the economic indexes of five countries custom union by using the formula, and analyzesthe foreign investment flows of the customs union, the industries of foreign investme

39、nt and the sources of foreigncapital. The paper analyzes and discusses the dynamic economic effects of the five countries trade status and trade inthe framework of the customs union. This is beneficial to understand the practical significance of strengtheningeconomic ties between Russia, Belarus and

40、 Kazakhstan from the perspective of regional integration. Through theanalysis of the above chapters, we can draw the following conclusions:Firstly, due to the economic gap between Belarus and Kazakhstan and Russia, Russia is in the leading positionin the customs union, which leads to the low proport

41、ion of the trade volume between China World Trade Center andKazakhstan. Intheshortterm, theeconomyofBelarus, Kazakhstan andother countries isgrowingrapidlywith Russia,which maylead to serious consequences in thelongrun. If Russia s economyis in turmoil, white and Kazakhstan willbe implicated.Secondly, after theestablishment oftheRussiaBelarusKazakhstan customs union, foreigninvestmentin membercountries has increased significantly. Customs union trade has produced some dynamic economic effects. But thereare some