微通道换热器项目商业计划.doc

微通道换热器项目商业计划Business Plan for MCHX ProjectD，SD & S2006年8月18日2006.08.181. 背景1. Background1.1 项目背景1.1 Project BackgroundMCHX（微通道换热器）是一种采用全铝材料制成的高效换热器。从技术上说，该项技术已经成熟并且已经成功运用于汽车空调系统，包括R134a和CO2系统。MCHX (Micro Channel Heat Exchanger) is a high efficiency all aluminum heat exchanger. Technically this technology has been mature and been successfully applied in automobile air conditioning system, both for R134a and CO2 system. 在过去的一年半的时间内，铜材的价格持续上扬，而同时铝材的价格保持相对的稳定。现在铜材的价格几乎是铝材价格的3.5倍。由于两种材料间存在着的明显的价格差异，以及微通道换热器全铝结构的特点，与传统的管翅式换热器（T&F HX）相比较，微通道换热器具有明显的成本上的优势。在如今价格竞争日趋激烈的家用空调市场上，该成本优势具有足够的吸引力，让许多家用空调生产厂商考虑采用微通道来替换管翅式换热器。In the last one and half years, the copper price soared while the aluminum price kept relatively stable, and the current copper price is almost 3.5 times of aluminum price. Because of the significant price gap between copper and aluminum, there exists, compared to conventional tube and fin heat exchanger (T&F HX), great cost advantage for MCHX because of its all aluminum structure. In current intensive price competition situation for residential air conditioner (RAC) industry, this cost advantage has big enough attractiveness to the RAC OEMs to consider using MCHX to replace T&F HX. D公司和S公司意识到了这个商机并且制定了本商业计划来开拓在微通道换热器市场上的合作。D and S see the opportunity and develop this business plan to explore cooperation for MCHX business. 1.2 微通道换热器可能的应用领域1.2 Possible Application Fields for MCHX虽然微通道换热器现在主要应用于汽车空调中，但是从长远来看，我们仍然可以看到它将在许多不同的换热场合得到运用，因此以下的一些应用可以包括进本合作项目的应用领域范围：Although currently MCHX is mainly applied in automobile AC, we can still see, in the long term view, the great opportunities to applying MCHX in various heat exchanging situations and below industries can be included into the application range for this MCHX cooperation project: 空调（家用和商用）Air conditioning (residential and commercial) 商用冷冻Commercial refrigeration 发动机热回收Engine heat reclaim 医疗设备Pharmaceutical equipment 干燥设备（洗衣机）Drying equipment (washing machine)本商业计划的第一步将主要关注家用空调市场，因为其拥有巨大的市场潜力，同时D公司和S公司在该领域内也拥有丰富的市场资源。For the first step, this business plan will mainly focus on RAC industry because of its tremendous potential, as well as market resources in this industry from D and S. 1.3 容量范围1.3 Capacity Range关于容量范围，我们将主要关注30冷吨以下的市场，该市场主要覆盖了家用和轻型商用空调市场。对于更大的容量，可以采用换热器并联的方式来实现，因此不会在本商业计划中涉及。Regarding the capacity range, well basically look at the market of capacity below 30 ton, which covers the market for residential and light commercial AC industries. For the bigger range, it can be easily reached by paralleling MCHX, thus will not be discussed by this business plan. 1.4 D和S优势1.4 Advantages of D and SD和S都对该合作计划有浓厚的兴趣，并且互相将对方视为最好的合作伙伴。我们都相信双方拥有可以互补的独特优势，从而自然形成了最好的合作组合。Both D and S are very interested in this cooperation project and see each other as the best cooperation partner because we believe both sides have their unique advantages which are complementary to each other, forming a naturally excellent combination to this cooperation. D是一家为制冷与空调行业提供部件和解决方案的专业公司，可凭借其如下优势对本项目提供帮助：D is a professional component and solution provider for R&AC industries, which can mainly contribute to the project with their exceptional advantages in 应用知识Application knowledge 研发能力R&D capability 市场信息Market informationS是国内领先的制冷和空调设备部件的供应商并且在如下方面具有突出的优势：S is a Chinese leading supplier for RAC components and has great advantages in 丰富的制造经验，尤其是大规模生产的经验Manufacturing experience, especially for mass production 家用空调市场信息和资源Market information and resources in RAC market1.5 合作模式1.5 Cooperation Mode该商业计划的合作模式如下：This business plan is aiming at a cooperation mode as below. D和S成立合资公司，投资比例为50%：50%A JV by D and S, 50% to 50% 独立运作Independent operation我们采用这种合作模式的理由如下：The reasons why we prefer this cooperation mode are listed as below. 巨大的市场潜力Huge market potential微通道换热器的市场非常巨大，足以提供一个独立的平台来进行操作。The market for MCHX is big enough to provide a platform for an independent operation. 快速反应的必要性Necessity of fast response该市场已经进入了快速增长的阶段，因此快速的反应以及迅速的决策是该计划的关键成功因素。The industry has entered into the fast growing phase, and fast response and quick decision are the key success factors for this business. 2. 目标市场及投资规模2. Target Market and Investment Scale如前所述，该计划第一阶段的目标市场是家用空调市场。考虑到微通道换热器在用作蒸发器时仍存在一些技术问题（如冷凝水的排放，回油问题等），本商业计划主要关注其在单冷空调中作为冷凝器的应用。为了能够加快该项计划的实施，中国（占全球制冷空调市场70%份额）被选为第一阶段的目标市场。As stated before, the target market for this project for the first stage is RAC industry. Considering there still some technical problems (such as condensate drainage, oil return, etc.) to use MCHX as evaporator, the condenser for cooling only type RAC is the major application for this business plan. In order to facilitate the project quickly, China, which covers 70% of RAC production in the world, is selected as the target region for the first stage. 2.1 市场情况2.1 Market Situation 市场规模Market size2005年中国家用空调市场总体规模1如图1所示。The overall market size in 2005 for China RAC market “中国家用空调市场规模”是指中国家用空调器的生产量，而不是中国市场的销售量。大部分中国生产的家用空调都用于出口。The “China RAC market size” refers to the production quantity of RAC in China, but not the sales of RAC in China. Major part of China production is for overseas business. is showed in Figure 1. 百万台m.unitFigure 1: China RAC Market, 2005从该图中我们可以看出，中国2005年的制冷与空调市场的市场规模为6千万台，其中有将近2千万台是单冷型（包括窗式和分体式）。From the figure we can see that the overall market size for China RAC is 60 m.unit, among which around 20 m.unit are cooling only type (including window type and split type). 单冷空调的市场趋势Market trend for cooling only单冷空调和热泵空调在价格上的差异保证了市场对于单冷空调的需求，因此单冷空调市场在未来仍将保持平稳的发展。根据对中国一些主要的家用空调客户所做的调查，单冷空调市场将会在未来5年内保持7%的增长。The market for cooling only type will keep stable in the future, because the price difference between cooling only type and reversible type ensures the demand for cooling only type. Based on the sample investigation for some key accounts in China RAC market, the cooling only market will grow at 7% in the next 5 years. 价格的敏感性Price sensitivity由于在家用空调市场中激烈的价格竞争，家用空调的利润目前已经十分有限，空调厂家对于配件的价格都非常敏感。因此，如果一项新技术能够将成本降低10%，其需求将会非常巨大，而用微通道换热器来替代管翅式换热器来作为冷凝器使用也恰恰就是这种情况。Due to the intensive price competition in RAC industry, the margin space for RAC is very limited currently and RAC OEMs are very sensitive to component price. Therefore, there will be definitely huge demand for substitution if there is 10% cost reduction possibility for new technology, and this is exactly the case for MCHX replacing T&F HX for condensers. 用户的兴趣Customers interests已经有一些家用空调厂家对微通道换热器产生了浓厚的兴趣：Some RAC customers have already showed great interests in MCHX technology: 松下Matsushita松下对于微通道换热器显示了浓厚的兴趣，并且承诺如果该产品成功投产，会有大量的需求。Matsushita is very interested in MCHX and they promised huge demand if the product is available. 海信HiSenseS给海信提供了三种类型的微通道换热器样品进行测试（测试结果将会在后面分析）。S provided them three types of MCHX samples for testing (the testing result showed in below pages). TCLTCL当TCL了解到相关的微通道换热器的消息时，他们主动地和S进行了联系。TCL contacted S actively when they heard about the news on MCHX. 长虹ChanghongChanghong也对微通道换热器表示了兴趣。Changhong is also interested in the product. 2.2 微通道换热器产品竞争优势分析2.2 Competitive Advantages Analysis for MCHX Product相比较于传统的管翅式换热器，微通道换热器在如下方面有着明显的优势从而具有很强的竞争力：Compared to the conventional T&F HX, the MCHX product has prominent advantages which provide it great competitiveness. 高效率High efficiency由于微通道换热器杰出的性能，和传统的管翅式换热器相比较，其传热系数有明显的提高。根据在海信的样品测试结果，10孔的微通道换热器其传热效率平均提高了59%，4孔的达到了47%。Because of MCHXs outstanding performance, the heat transfer efficiency can be improved a lot compared to conventional T&F HX. The sample testing result in HiSense showed an average improvement of 59% for 10-hole MCHX was reached, and 47% for 4-hole MCHX was reached. 体积小，重量轻Compact size and light weight由于微通道换热器的高效的特点，其外形尺寸及重量都比管翅式换热器要小。例如，在海信的测试的微通道换热器样品比管翅式的要小20%，而重量则轻3040%。Because of the high efficiency characteristics of MCHX, the size and weight can be reduced compared to T&F HX. For example, the MCHX sample tested in HiSense is 20% smaller than T&F HX, and the weight is 3040% lower. 制冷剂充注量Refrigerant charge因为微通道管的内容积要远小于管翅式换热器，所以制冷剂充注量也能够减少，即使在系统中需要增加贮液器的情况下亦是如此。研究表明，在采用微通道换热器作为冷凝器时，制冷剂的充注量平均将减少30%。Because the internal volume of MC pipe is much smaller than T&F tube, the refrigerant charge can also be reduced, even there might need an additional receiver in the system. Research shows averagely 30% lower charge can be reached because of the introduction of MCHX condenser. 将来如果微通道换热器的应用扩大到蒸发器，则该优势将会更加明显，因为蒸发器中的制冷剂量会大幅减少，并且系统不需设置贮液器。If in the future the application of MCHX is expanded to evaporator, this advantage can even be much larger considering the charge reduction in evaporator and no need for receiver. 成本优势Cost competitiveness由于铜材和铝材之前巨大的价格差异以及重量上的差别，微通道换热器相比管翅式换热器有着巨大的价格优势。从样品的分析可知，其成本只有管翅式（9.52）的57%。实际上，现有的样品还需要进一步完善（通过减小管壁厚度以及管的数量），这样成本降低的潜力还能更大。Because of the lower weight and the big price difference between copper and aluminum, there will be great cost competitiveness for MCHX compared to T&F HX. The analysis for the testing sample shows 43% lower cost than T&F HX (9.52). Actually the sample need to be optimized (by reducing the wall thickness of MC pipe and the pipe number), and the higher cost saving potential can be reached. 如果在将来，我们能将微通道换热器应用于蒸发器，则成本节省空间将会更大。And if in the future, we can apply MCHX to evaporator, the cost saving space will be much larger. 大规模生产Mass production微通道换热器的结构决定了该产品适合于大规模生产。通过确定一系列的标准扁管（不同的孔数和管尺寸）,可以很容易地对微通道换热器进行标准化，从而可以通过调整扁管数量来满足客户对于换热量的不同需求。而S在低成本大规模生产方面的经验无疑将给本项目带来益处。The structure of MCHX (MC pipes and fins) determines that this product is suitable for mass production. It can easily be standardized by defining a series of standard pipes (different hole numbers and pipe size) and can meet different requirement of heat transfer by changing the number of pipes. And Ss experiences in managing mass production with cost competitiveness will surly benefit this project. 季节能效比（SEER）的提高SEER improvement研究发现当房间空调器采用高效的微通道换热器时，系统的SEER可以得到提高。考虑到许多国家对SEER有严格的标准，这将有助于微通道换热器的推广。Research shows the improvement in SEER can be reached for RAC adopting high efficiency MCHX. This will help the promotion of MCHX considering that a lot of countries are having strict standard on SEER performance for RAC. 2.3 合资方式的优势分析2.3 Competitive Advantages Analysis for the JV CooperationD和S都认为成立合资公司是最好的战略选择，其理由如下：Both D and S see the cooperation for a JV as the best strategy option with the rationale as below: 制冷知识和生产经验的结合Combination of refrigeration know-how and manufacturing experience合资公司将会从D和S的结合中获得巨大的竞争力。同一些国际公司（如Modine和Delphi）相比，合资公司在成本控制上拥有优势。而和许多中国本土的潜在竞争对手相比，合资公司的优势则体现在在微通道换热器和制冷系统的研发和技术上。The JV will gain great competitiveness from the combination of D and S with their advantages. Compared to international companies like Modine, and Delphi, the JV has advantages in cost control. And compared to potential local Chinese competitors, the JV has advantages in R&D capability and technology know-how about MCHX and refrigeration system. 用户资源Customer resourceD和S在家用空调和轻型商用空调行业中都拥有坚实的用户基础，这样能使该合资公司轻松地进入市场并且迅速壮大。Both D and S have solid customer base in residential and light commercial AC industries, which can enable the JV enter into the market easily and expand quickly. 首先进入家用空调市场的优势Advantage of first entrant for RAC industry如今，在中国的家用空调市场并没有微通道换热器的供应商，该合资公司的建立和迅速成长将会对新进入该行业者构成进入壁垒。Currently there is no MCHX supplier for China RAC industry, and the setup and rapid growth of the JV will form an entry barrier to other newcomers into this industry. 持续的降成本能力Continuous cost reduction capability利用D的技术知识和S的制造经验，该合资公司将在微通道换热器的成本优化方面拥有很大的空间，而这也能增加合资公司在市场上的持续竞争力。With D technical know-how and Ss manufacturing experience, the JV has big space for cost optimization for MCHX, which will provide the JV continuous competitiveness in the market. 2.4 目标投资规模2.4 Target Investment Scale根据市场规模、以及D和S的市场资源及经验，我们的目标投资规模如下：According to the market size and the market resources and experiences of D and S, we target the investment scale as below. 表1：目标市场投资规模Table 1: Target investment scale年份Year第一年Year 1第二年Year 2第三年Year 3产能（百万套）Production capacity (m.unit)*3. 技术可行性分析3. Technical Feasibility Analysis3.1 1.5hp微通道换热器样品测试3.1 Sample Testing for 1.5 hp MCHXS在海信的1.5匹机上对一些微通道换热器样品进行了测试。测试结果证明了微通道换热器用于冷凝器的可行性以及它和传统的管翅式换热器相比所体现的优势。主要的测试结果如下所列：S tested some MCHX condenser samples in HiSense in its 1.5 hp RAC. The testing demonstrate the feasibility of using MCHX as condenser in RAC as well as the advantages of MCHX compared to conventional T&F HX. The main testing results are showed as below. 效率Efficiency在测试中发现机器的效率得到了很大的提高。和管翅式换热器1(9.52)相比较，微通道换热器1（10孔）和微通道换热器2（4孔）在能效上分别提高了45%和34%。 并且和管翅式换热器1(7)相比较，分别提高了72%和59%。Big efficiency improvement was found in the testing. Compared to T&F HX 1 (9.52), the efficiency of MCHX 1 (10-hole) and MCHX 2 (4-hole) reached 45% and 34% respectively. And compared to T&F HX 2 (7), it reached 72% and 59% respectively. 表2：微通道换热器1(10孔)和管翅式换热器1( 9.52)及管翅式换热器2( 7)的比较Table 2: MCHX 1 (10-hole) compare to T&F HX 1 (9.52) and T&F HX 2 (7)换热器类型HX type微通道1(10孔)MCHX 1 (10-hole)管翅式1(9.52)T&F HX 1 (9.52)管翅式2（7）T&F HX 2(7)冷凝温度()Condensing temp. ()Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50传热量(W)Heat transfer (W)6,0687,0024,1734,8123,5224,077能效提高率（%）Efficiency improvement (%)N/AN/A45%46%72%72%表3: 微通道换热器2(4孔)和管翅式换热器1(9.52)及管翅式换热器2(7)的比较Table 3: MCHX 2 (4-hole) compare to T&F HX 1 (9.52) and T&F HX 2 (7)换热器类型HX type微通道2(4孔)MCHX 2 (4-hole)管翅式1(9.52)T&F HX 1 (9.52)管翅式2(7)T&F HX 2(7)冷凝温度()Condensing temp. ()Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50传热量(W)Heat transfer (W)5,6036,5094,1734,8123,5224,077能效提高率（%）Efficiency improvement (%)N/AN/A34%35%59%60% 压降Pressure drop微通道换热器和管翅式换热器1相比较，压降几乎相同。同管翅式换热器2相比较其压降降低较大。Compared to T&F HX 1 (9.52), the pressure drop is almost the same. While compare to T&F HX 2 (7), the pressure drop of MCHX reduces a lot. 表4 ：压降测试结果Table 4: Testing result for pressure drop换热器类型HX type微通道1(10孔)MCHX 1(10-hole)微通道2(4孔)MCHX 2(4-hole)管翅式1(9.52)T&F HX 1(9.52)管翅式管热器2(7)T&F HX 2(7)冷凝温度48时的压降（MPa）Pressure drop under Tc = 48 (Mpa)0.0220.0190.0140.091冷凝温度50时的压降（Mpa）Pressure drop under Tc = 50 (Mpa)0.0320.0280.0230.119 外形尺寸及重量Size and weight和管翅式换热器相比较，微通道换热器样品在外形尺寸上要小20%，重量上要轻30%40%。The size of the MCHX sample is 20% smaller than T&F HX, and the weight is 3040% lower. 3.2 应用经验3.2 Application Experiences由于其良好的承压能力、紧凑的外型以及轻巧的重量，微通道换热器在汽车空调行业的R134a系统中得到了长期的应用。这些实际的应用经验表明了微通道换热器用作空调系统换热器的技术可行性。美国德尔福公司已经给约克供应了两年的微通道冷凝器，并已开始为美国开利开发微通道冷凝器。此外，据说德尔福已经开发出了家用空调器用的微通道蒸发器，并将马上推向市场。摩汀公司也已经为韩国的家用空调市场开发出了微通道换热器（包括冷凝器和蒸发器）。MCHX has been applied in R134a system for automobile AC industry for a long time because of its outstanding characteristics in high pressure resistance, compact size, light weight, etc. These application experiences demonstrate the technical feasibility of using MCHX as heat exchangers in AC system. Delphi US has supplied MCHX condensers for RAC to York for about 2 years and has been developing MCHX condensers to Carrier US. And it was said that Delphi has finished the development of MCHX evaporator for RAC and will release for market soon. Modine has also developed MCHX (both condenser and evaporator) for RAC in Korean market. 作为家用空调器制造厂家，美国约克是第一个采用微通道冷凝器的公司，而韩国三星也在探索将微通道换热器应用到空调行业的可能性。As the RAC makers, York US is the first one to use MCHX condensers and Samsung is also exploring the opportunity of applying MCHX in AC industry. 3.3 铜铝焊接技术3.3 Soldering Technology for Copper and Aluminum许多用户可能会担心铝和铜的焊接问题。事实上，这方面的焊接技术出现并成功地运用到了S生产的样品中。在该样品中，铜管接头已经焊接在换热器上，这样客户只需进行铜-铜焊接即可，而这不会给用户带来任何困难。Some customers may have worry about the soldering between copper and aluminum. Actually the technology has been developed already and applied in the samples S produced. A copper tube connection is soldered in the MCHX sample and the customer need only do Cu-Cu solder and it doesnt cause any difficulty to customers. 3.4 不同技术的可变成本比较3.4 Variable Cost Comparison for Different Technologies为了对可变成本进行比较，我们选取海信1.5hp管翅式换热器作为例子。管翅式换热器中所用的主要原材料价格如下所列：In order to compare the variable cost, we chose HiSense 1.5 hp condenser (9.52) as the T&F HX example. The main market prices for raw materials used in T&F HX are list as below. 表5：管翅式换热器原材料价格（含税）Table 5: Raw material price (incl. VAT) for T&F HX材料Material项目Item单位Unit价格Price光铜管Smooth copper tube电解铜价格Electrolytic copper priceRMB/kg65.00 加工费Processing feeRMB/kg 6.00 铜管单价Copper tube priceRMB/kg71.00 内螺纹铜管Internal thread copper tube电解铜价格Electrolytic copper priceRMB/kg65.00 加工费Processing feeRMB/kg 8.00 铜管单价Copper tube priceRMB/kg73.00 铝箔（光箔）Normal aluminum foil铝价格Aluminum priceRMB/kg19.20 加工费Processing feeRMB/kg 5.00 铝箔单价Aluminum foil priceRMB/kg24.20 铝箔（亲水箔）Hydrophilic aluminum foil铝价格Aluminum priceRMB/kg19.20 加工费Processing feeRMB/kg 7.00 铝箔单价Aluminum foil priceRMB/kg26.20 铜弯头Copper elbow铜弯头加工费Copper elbow processing feeRMB/kg 0.03 镀锌铁板Galvanized steet镀锌铁板价格Galvanized steet priceRMB/kg 6.50 焊料（焊环）Solder material (Solder ring)焊料价格Solder material priceRMB/kg90.00 表6中给出了可变成本的比较。有一点需要指出的是，现在的微通道换热器样品并没有进行优化，通过对减小管壁厚度、减少管数以及其它方法，还可以产生巨大的成本削减空间。因此，我们在表6中也列出了经过优化后的成本期望。The variable cost comparison result is listed in Table 6. One thing need to be mentioned is that the current MCHX sample is not optimized. There is sti