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Forward,Futures,andOptionsAgreements

2ASingleSolutionInthepasttwodecades,financialpriceshavebecomemorevolatilethishadledtogreaterrisksRisk-averseFIsandcorporationsusefinancialforward,futures,andoptionscontractstoreducetherisksassociatedwiththesepricefluctuations3ForwardTransactionsFinancialforwardtransactionscanbeusedtohedgetherisksassociatedwithpricechangesassociatedwithanyfinancialinstrumentprimarilyusedtodealwiththeriskscreatedbythefluctuationsinforeignexchangemarkets4ForwardTransactionsTheexchangeratesisthepriceofonecurrencyintermsofanotherExchangerateriskistheriskthatchangesintheexchangeratewillcausesomeonetoexperienceunexpectedlossesthemoreunpredictableandunstableexchangeratesare,thegreatertheexchangeraterisk5ForwardTransactionsSpotratesaredeterminedbysupplyanddemandthespotrateistheexchangerateofforeigncurrencyforimmediatedeliveryInfinancialforwardagreements,thetermsaresettodayforatransactionthatwilltakeplaceonaspecifieddateinthefuturetheexchangerateintheseagreementsisknownastheforwardrate6ForwardTransactionsTheforwardrateforaforeigncurrencywillgravitatetowardtheexpectedfuturespotrateforthatcurrencyaffectedbythesamefactorsthataffectspotratesthesupplyanddemandforforeignexchangeexpectedinflationandinterestratedifferentialseconomicoutlookdomesticandforeignmonetaryandfiscalpolicies7ForwardTransactionsAtypicalforeignexchangerateforwardagreementworksinthefollowingwayabankhasacustomerthatwillreceive1millioneurosin6monthsandanothercustomerwhowillneed1millioneurosin6monthsbothcustomersareworriedthatchangesintheexchangeratecouldreducetheirprofitsthebankcanbuyaforwardcontractfromthefirstcustomerandsellaforwardcontracttotheother8ForwardTransactionsThebankwillbuytheforwardcontractataslightlylowerratethanitwillselltheforwardcontractthisisthebank’sprofitmarginonthetransaction9ForwardTransactionsWhywillthecustomersagree?thecustomerexpectingtoreceivethe1millioneurosmaybeconcernedthattheexchangeratewillfallthecustomerneedingthe1millionin6monthsmaybeconcernedthattheexchangeratewillrisedramatically10ForwardTransactionsIfthespotexchangerates6monthsfromnowareequaltothecurrentforwardrates,thecustomersbothbuyingandsellingforwardagreementswouldbenobetterorworseoffiftheactualspotrateshappentobedifferentfromthecurrentforwardrates,onecustomerwouldbebetteroffandonewouldbeworseoff11TheMechanicsofSpotandForwardMarkets12ForwardTransactionsSinceitisnotknownwhatthefuturespotratewillbe,bothcustomerscanreducetheuncertaintyofthefutureexchangeratebyengaginginaforwardagreementforreducingtheprobabilityofaloss,theyaregivinguptheopportunitytogainsincetheforwardratewillconvergetothemarket’sexpectationofthefuturespotrate,participantsonlygiveuptheopportunitytogainifthereareunexpectedchangesinthefuturespotrate13ForwardTransactionsAnymarketparticipantthatholdsforeigncurrencyisexposedtoexchangerateriskthisincludesbothfinancialandnonfinancialfirmsthatoperateinmanydifferentcountriesSincetheforwardagreementsarrangedbetweenbanksandcustomersareoftennotperfectlyoffsetting,thebankcanalsobeexposedtoexchangeraterisk14ForwardTransactionsForwardagreementscanalsobeusedtospeculateaboutfutureexchangeratesifthespeculatorbelievesthatthefuturespotratein6monthswillbelowerthanthecurrent6-monthforwardrate,hewillenterintoanagreementtosellattheforwardrateifheiscorrect,hecouldenterthespotmarketin6monthsandpurchasetheforeignexchangeatapricelowerthanhesolditforintheforwardmarkettheoppositeistrueaswell15LimitationsofForwardAgreementsFindingpartnersmaybedifficulttransactionscostsmaybehighandoutweighthepossiblegainOnepartytotheagreementmaydefaultgettingcompliancemayrequirelegalactionandmaybecostly16FinancialFuturesFinancialfuturesmarketstradefuturesinfinancialinstrumentsFinancialfuturesarecontractsinwhichtwopartiesagreetotradestandardizedquantitiesoffinancialinstrumentsonstandardizedfuturedatesaccordingtothetermsdeterminedtodayusedtoreducetheriskassociatedwithfuturepricechangesoffinancialinstruments17FinancialFuturesFuturescontractsdifferfromforwardagreementsinthattheamountsandthedeliverydatesarestandardizedforwardagreementsforspecificamountsanddatesarenegotiatedwiththefinancialintermediaryinvolvedfuturescontractswithstandardizedamountsanddatesaretradedonthefloorsoforganizedexchangesforasmallfee18FinancialFuturesFinancialfuturesmarketstradeawidevarietyoffinancialinstrumentsgovernmentsecuritiesstockmarketindexesEurodollarsnumerousforeigncurrenciesThecontractsaretradedonmajorexchangesaroundtheworld19FinancialFuturesAfuturescontracttradesafixedamountofafinancialinstrumentfordeliveryonaspecificdateinthefutureTreasurybondfuturestradeincontractsof$100,000facevaluefordeliveryinMarch,June,September,andDecemberthereare4pricestodayfordeliveryof$100,000ofTreasurybondsonthe4futuredates20FinancialFuturesAfuturescontractcanbeboughtorsoldonanygivendaybetweennowandthefuturedeliverydatethepredicamentforbuyersandsellersisthatthespotpriceonthedeliverydatemaybedifferentfromthefuturespriceagreedupontoday21FinancialFuturesThebuyerrarelytakesphysicalpossessionofthesecuritiesonthedeliverydateandthesellerrarelydeliversIfthepricechanges,thebuyerorthesellermerelysettleupfinanciallyforanychangesinvalue22FinancialFuturesFuturesmarketscanalsobeusedforspeculationifaninvestorbelievesthatthespotpriceofasecurityisgoingtobehigherin6monthsthantoday’sfuturesprice,hewillbuyafuturescontractifheiscorrect,hecanresellthefuturescontractatthehigherspotpriceonthedeliverydatetheoppositeholdstrueaswell23FinancialFuturesBecausefinancialfuturesarewrittenforstandardizedamountsfordeliveryonafewspecificdates,perfectoffsettingtransactionsbetweenbuyersandsellersarerarelymaderiskcanstillbereducedbyfindingaclosematchsinceaperfectmatchdoesnothavetobefound,hightransactionscostsareavoided24FinancialFuturesThefuturespriceissetbybiddingandofferinginanauction-likesettingeachfinancialinstrumentthatistradedusuallyhasitsownpitwhereauthorizedbrokersgathertobuyandsellfortheircustomersbidandaskedpricesarecalledoutuntilthebrokersbecomeawareofthepricesinthemarketthemostfavorabletransactionsareconsummated25FinancialFuturesOnceanagreementisstruck,aclearinghousetakesontheresponsibilityofenforcingthecontractthesellerlookstotheclearinghousetodeliverthebuyerlookstotheclearinghousetopaytheamountdueonthedeliverydatethisreducesthedefaultriskbecausetheclearinghouseguaranteesthatthetermsoftheagreementwillbemet26FinancialFuturesTofacilitatetheguarantee,theexchangerequiresbuyersandsellersoffuturestoputupaperformancebond(calledamarginrequirement)setbytheexchangebrokersarerequiredtocollectmarginrequirementsfromtheircustomersbeforetheymakeanyfuturespurchasesorsales27DeterminingtheFuturesPriceThefuturespriceandthespotpricearehighlycorrelatedthisisduetoactionsofarbitrageurswhoseekarisklessprofitwhenanopportunityforrisklessprofitopensup,arbitrageursmoveinandtakeactionsthatalterspotpricesandfuturesprices,movingthemclosertogether28DeterminingtheFuturesPriceSupposethatthefuturespriceforTreasurybondstobedelivered3monthsfromnowismuchhigherthanthepresentspotpriceanarbitrageurwouldbuythebondsinthespotmarketwhilesellingafuturescontracthewouldthenholdthebondsuntilthedeliverydateofthefuturesagreementthismeansthathewouldincursomecarryingcosts29DeterminingtheFuturesPriceAslongasthefuturespriceisgreaterthanthecurrentspotpriceplusthecarryingcosts,thearbitrageurwillmakearisklessprofitIfthisopportunityexists,arbitrageurswillpurchaseinthespotmarket(drivinguptheprice)andsellinthefuturesmarket(drivingthepricedown)30DeterminingtheFuturesPriceArbitragecontinuesuntilthefuturespriceisbiddowntothespotpricepluscarryingcostsconvergenceAsthedeliverydateapproaches,carryingcostsfallthefuturespricewillapproachthespotprice31OptionsBusinessfirmsandindividualscanusethefuturesmarkettoreducetheriskofpricechangesAnunattractivefeatureofthefuturesmarketisthatiteliminatesapossiblegainfromapricechange32OptionsSupposethatanindividualknowsthathewillneedtoborrow$1million1monthfromnowandisworriedthattheinterestratewillbehigherthenhecansellaT-billfuturefor$1millionthatwillrequirehimtosellT-billsin30daysatapricedeterminedtoday33OptionsIftheinterestraterises,hemustborrowatthehigherrate,butthepriceofthefuturescontractwillfallandhemakesaprofitIftheinterestratefalls,hegainsbyborrowingatthelowerratebuthelosesonthefuturesagreementbecausethefuturespricewillrisewhileheislockedintosellingatthelowerprice34OptionsOptionsaresimilartofuturesinthattheyareusedtoreducetheriskoffuturepricechangesortospeculatetheygivethebuyertherightbutnottheobligationtobuyorsellaninstrumentinthefutureforapricedeterminedtodaytheagreed-uponpriceisthestrikepricetherightcontinuesuntilanexpirationdatespecifiedinthecontract35OptionsOptionsexistformanyagriculturalproducts,commodities,individualstocks,andotherfinancialinstrumentsOptionsarealsoavailableonthemajortypesoffuturescontractscalledoptionsonfuturesgivethebuyertherighttobuyorsellafuturescontractuptotheexpirationdate36OptionsOptioncontractsareoftenwrittenonfuturescontractsratherthanontheunderlyingfinancialinstrumentsbecausethefuturescontractsareoftenmoreliquidthantheunderlyingfinancialinstrumentssecondarymarketsformostfinancialinstrumentsarenotashighlydevelopedasfuturesmarkets37PutOptionsPutoptionsgivethebuyertheright(butnottheobligation)tosellastandardizedcontractofafinancialinstrumentorafuturesagreementatastrikepricedeterminedtodaythesellerhastheobligation(butnottheright)tobuythecontractifthebuyerexercisestheoptionbeforetheexpirationdate38PutOptionsLikefutures,financialoptionsarewrittenonlyinstandardizedamountsfordeliveryonspecificdatesandaperfectlyoffsettingtransactionisrarelyfoundRiskisstillreducedputoptionsallowtheriskofaninterestrateincreasetobehedgedwithoutlosingthepossibilityofagainiftheinterestrategoesdown39CallOptionsCalloptionsgivethebuyertheright(butnottheobligation)tobuyafinancialinstrumentanytimebeforetheexpirationdateatthestrikepricedeterminedtodaythebuyerexercisestherightonlyifitisinhisinteresttodosoifthecurrentpriceisgreaterthanthestrikepriceallowsthebuyertolimitthelossesfromapriceincreasewithoutlimitinghisabilitytotakeadvantageofapricedecrease40TheOptionPremiumWhywouldanyonehedgeriskwithfuturesthatlimitbothlossesandgainswhentheycanuseoptionsthatlimitonlylosses?becausefuturesarecheapersmallbrokeragefeebothpartiestotheagreementhaverightsandobligations41TheOptionPremiumWithoptions,thebuyeroftheoptionhasrightsandnoobligations,whiletheselleroftheoptionhasobligationsandnorightsinadditiontopayingtheexchangeabrokeragefee,thepartywiththerights(andnoobligation)paysanoptionpremiumtothepartywiththeobligation(butnorights)thepremiumistherewardtotheselleroftheoptionforacceptingtheriskofalosswithnopossibilityofagain42DeterminingtheOptionPremiumThepriceofacalloraputoptionisdeterminedbysupplyanddemandOnlythebuyerofacalloraputoptioncanbeahedgermayalsobeaspeculatorThesellerofacalloraputoptioncanneverbehedging43DeterminingtheOptionPremiumForagivenoptionscontract,theoptionpremiumwillgenerallybelargerwhenthepriceofthecontractinstrumentismorevolatiletheexpirationdateoftheoptionisfurtherawaythestrikepricerelativetothespotpriceishigher(forputoptions)thestrikepricerelativetothespotpriceislower(forcalloptions44SummaryofMajorPointsInforwardmarkets,thetermsofthetransactionthatwilloccuronafuturedatearearrangedtodayusedtoreducetheriskthatfuturepricechangeswilleliminateprofitarearrangedbyintermediariescanhavehightransactionscostsusuallyrequiretheexactmatchingbetweentwopartiesandeachpartyfacesadefaultrisk45SummaryofMajorPointsInfinancialmarkets,forwardcontractsinthemostwidelytradedcurrencieshavebeenestablishedbylargecommercialbanksthebankisanactualparticipantintheagreementtheredoesnothavetobeanexactmatchingoftwopartiesthebankwillfacesomeexchangeraterisk46SummaryofMajorPointsFinancialfuturesarestandardizedcontractsbetweentwopartiestobuyorsellfinancialsecuritiesonafuturedateata

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