浅谈人工智能的下个十年

浅谈人工智能的下个十年人工智能的第三次浪潮人工智能历史人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyClaudeShannonShannon,ClaudeE."XXII.Programmingacomputerforplayingchess."Philosophicalmagazine41.314(1950):256-275.AlanTuringTuring,AlanM."Solvableandunsolvableproblems."ScienceNews-ens.fr39(1954).1950计算机象棋博弈1954图灵测试人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyJohnMcCarthyMcCarthy,J.,etal."DartmouthConference."DartmouthSummerResearchConferenceonArtificialIntelligence.19561956达特茅斯会议1959一般问题解决器MarvinMinskyNathanRochesterClaudeShannonHerbert

SimonJ.C.ShawAllen

NewellNewell,A.;Shaw,J.C.;Simon,H.A.(1959).Reportonageneralproblem-solvingprogram.ProceedingsoftheInternationalConferenceonInformationProcessing.pp.256–264.人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyDanielBobrowBobrow,DanielG."Naturallanguageinputforacomputerproblemsolvingsystem."(1964)JosephWeizenbaumWeizenbaum,Joseph."ELIZA—acomputerprogramforthestudyofnaturallanguagecommunicationbetweenmanandmachine."CommunicationsoftheACM9.1(1966):36-45.1964

理解自然语言输入1966ELIZA人机对话人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyBuchanan,Bruce,GeorgiaSutherland,andEdwardA.Feigenbaum.HeuristicDENDRAL:aprogramforgeneratingexplanatoryhypothesesinorganicchemistry.DefenseTechnicalInformationCenter,1968.1968

世界首个专家系统DENDRALEdwardFeigenbaum人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyRandallDavisApplicationsofmetalevelknowledgetotheconstruction,maintenanceanduseoflargeknowledgebases[M].StanfordUniversity,ComputerScienceDepartment,AILaboratory,1976.DrewMcDermott,JonDoyleMcDermottD,DoyleJ.Non-monotoniclogicI[J].Artificialintelligence,1980,13(1):41-72.1976大规模知识库构建与维护1980非单调逻辑人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyBerlinerHJ.Backgammoncomputerprogrambeatsworldchampion[J].ArtificialIntelligence,1980,14(2):205-220.1980

计算机战胜双陆棋世界冠军HansBerliner人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyBrooksR.Arobustlayeredcontrolsystemforamobilerobot[J].RoboticsandAutomation,IEEEJournalof,1986,2(1):14-231987基于行为的机器人学RodneyBrooks人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyTesauroG.TD-Gammon,aself-teachingbackgammonprogram,achievesmaster-levelplay[J].Neuralcomputation,1994,6(2):215-219.1987自我学习双陆棋程序GerryTesauro人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyTimBerners-Lee

Berners-Lee,Tim."Semanticwebroadmap."(1998).McGuinness,DeborahL.,andFrankVanHarmelen."OWLwebontologylanguageoverview."W3Crecommendation10.2004-03(2004):10.1998

语义互联网路线图2004OWL语言人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyGeoffreyHinton

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高层抽象特征构建人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyMarkoff,John."Googlecarsdrivethemselves,intraffic."TheNewYorkTimes10(2010):A1.2009谷歌自动驾驶汽车SebastianThrun人工智能领域发展趋势PoweredbyIBM’sWatsonMarkoff,John."Computerprogramtotakeon‘Jeopardy!’."TheNewYorkTimes(2009).Apple’sSiriSadun,Erica,andSteveSande.TalkingtoSiri:LearningtheLanguageofApple'sIntelligentAssistant.QuePublishing,2013.2011沃森获得Jeopardy冠军2011

自然语言问答人工智能领域发展趋势Poweredby人工智能近10年AI趋势：从感知到认知FromperceptrontocognitionComputingPerceptionCognitionStorage&ComputingRecognizetext,images,objects,voicesOrganizeandgenerateknowledge,reasoningArtificialIntelligenceAlphaGoImagerecognitionSelf-driving算法BERTPre-trainFinetuneBeatallstate-of-the-artson11NLPtasksin2018/pdf/1810.04805.pdfXLNetAutoregressiveModelBeatBERTin2019/pdf/1906.08237.pdfALBERTALiteBERTParameter-reductiontechniquesBeatXLNetandalltheothers/pdf/1909.11942.pdfVideo-to-VideoSynthesisThebestvideosynthesisperformance/abs/1808.06601graph_netByDeepMind/abs/1806.01261MoCoUnsupervised

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ImageNet/abs/2002.05709人工智能未来…第三代人工智能的理论体系早在2015年，张钹老师就提出第三代人工智能体系的雏形；2017年DARPA发起XAI项目，从可解释的机器学习系统、人机交互技术以及可解释的心理学理论三个方面，全面开展可解释性AI系统的研究2018年底，正式公开提出第三代人工智能的理论框架体系建立可解释、鲁棒性的人工智能理论和方法发展安全、可靠、可信及可扩展的人工智能技术推动人工智能创新应用具体实施路线图与脑科学融合，发展脑启发的人工智能理论数据与知识融合的人工智能理论与方法第三代人工智能的理念在国内外

获得广泛影响力认知图谱(CognitiveGraph)

—知识图谱,认知推理,逻辑表达知识图谱“Knowledgegraph”由Google于2012年提出知识工程，专家系统CYC:世界上历史最长的AI项目(1985)Tim

Berners

LeeFatherofWWWTuringAwardEdward

FeigenbaumFatherofKBTuringAward认知图谱：算法与认知的结合TheQualityCafeisanow-defunctdinerinLosAngeles,California.TherestauranthasappearedasalocationfeaturedinanumberofHollywoodfilms,includingOldSchool,Gonein60Seconds,...QualityCaféLosAngelesisthemostpopulouscityinCalifornia,thesecondmostpopulouscityintheUnitedStates,afterNewYorkCity,andthethirdmostpopulouscityinNorthAmerica.Los

AngelesOldSchoolisa2003AmericancomedyfilmreleasedbyDream

WorksPicturesandTheMontecitoPictureCompanyanddirectedbyToddPhillips.Old

SchoolToddPhillipsisanAmericandirector,producer,screenwriter,andactor.Heisbestknownforwritinganddirectingfilms,includingRoadTrip(2000),OldSchool(2003),Starsky&Hutch(2004),andTheHangoverTrilogy.Todd

PhillipsAlessandroMoschittiisaprofessoroftheCSDepartmentoftheUniversityofTrento,Italy.HeiscurrentlyaPrincipalResearchScientistoftheQatarComputingResearchInstitute(QCRI)Alessandro

MoschittiTsinghua

UniversityTsinghuaUniversityisamajorresearchuniversityinBeijinganddedicatedtoacademicexcellence

andglobaldevelopment.TsinghuaisperenniallyrankedasoneofthetopacademicinstitutionsinChina,Asia,andworldwide...算法:BIDAF,BERT,XLNet目标：理解整个文档，而不仅仅是局部片段但仍然缺乏在知识层面上的推理能力BiDAFBERTXLNet挑战:可解释性大部分阅读理解方法都只能看做黑盒:输入:问题和文档输出:答案文本块(在文档中的起止位置)如何让用户可以验证答案的对错:推理路径或者子图每个推理节点上的支撑事实用于对比的其他可能答案和推理路径认知图谱:知识表示,推理和决策和认知科学的结合Dual

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