商业落地路径：虚拟电厂（英）

Pathwaysto

CommercialLiftoff:

VirtualPowerPlants

SEPTEMBER|2023

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Comments

TheDepartmentofEnergywelcomesinputandfeedbackonthecontentsofthisPathwaytoCommercial

LiftoffReport.Pleasedirectallinquiriesandinputto

liftoff@

.Inputandfeedbackshouldnot

includebusinesssensitiveinformation,tradesecrets,proprietary,orotherwiseconfidentialinformation.PleasenotethatinputandfeedbackprovidedissubjecttotheFreedomofInformationAct.

Authors

JenniferDowning,LoanProgramsOffice(Lead)NicholasJohnson,OfficeofPolicy

MailinhMcNicholas,OfficeofTechnologyTransitionsDavidNemtzow,LoanProgramsOffice

RimaOueid,OfficeofTechnologyTransitionsJosephPaladino,OfficeofElectricity

ElizabethBellisWolfe,LoanProgramsOffice

Acknowledgements

Cross-cuttingDepartmentofEnergyleadershipforthePathwaystoCommercialLiftoffeffort:

LoanProgramsOffice:JigarShah,JonahWagner

OfficeofCleanEnergyDemonstrations:KellyCummins,MelissaKlembara

UndersecretaryforInfrastructure:DavidCrane

OfficeofTechnologyTransitions:VanessaChan,LuciaTian

OfficeofPolicy:NeeleshNerurkar

DepartmentofEnergyadvisoryandsupportfortheVPPLiftoffreport:

OfficeofElectricity:GeneRodrigues

OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy:AlejandroMoreno,RebeccaAlbertus-Jones,CarolynSnyder,PaulSpitsen,RamNarayanamurthy,JuliaMiller,GabrielKlein,GarrettNilsen,

CeciliaJohnson

OfficeofStateandLocalEnergyPrograms:HenryMcKoy,ChrisCastro,MichaelForrester

OfficeofCyberSecurity,EnergySecurity,andEmergencyResponse:PueshKumar,ElaineUlrich,ChristopherSweeney

OfficeofEconomicImpactandDiversity:ShalandaBaker,TonyReames,MalcolmMiller,IsaacLertola

LoanProgramsOffice:SeanSevilla,MichaelSchweitzer,AmyPeterson,SandhyaJetty

OfficeofPolicy:CarlaFrisch,NoelCrisostomo,JohnAganGridDeploymentOffice:MariaRobinson

AnalyticalsupportfromTheBrattleGroup:

RyanHledik,KatePeters

TableofContents

PurposeofLiftoffreports1

ObjectivesandScopeofthisLiftoffreportonVirtualPowerPlants1

ExecutiveSummary2

ChapterOne:Introduction6

1.i.Virtualpowerplantdefinition6

1.ii.Distributedenergyresourcedefinition6

1.iii.VPPvalueproposition8

ChapterTwo:CurrentStateTechnologiesandMarket13

2.i.DERadoption13

2.ii.VPPoperations16

2.iii.VPPparticipationinelectricitymarkets19

2.iv.VPPdeploymentbystate21

2.v.VPPbusinessmodeleconomics23

2.vi.AninflectionpointforVPPs31

ChapterThree:PathwaytoVPPLiftoff32

3.i.VPPpotentialin203032

3.ii.PathwaytoVPPliftoff33

3.iii.Broaderimplications35

ChapterFour:ChallengestoLiftoffandPotentialSolutions38

4.i.ExpandDERadoptionwithequitablebenefits38

4.ii.SimplifyVPPenrollment41

4.iii.IncreasestandardizationinVPPoperations43

4.iv.Integrateintoutilityplanningandincentives48

4.v.Integrateintowholesalemarkets51

ChapterFive:MetricstoTrackProgress53

Appendix56

I.Keyconceptsandtermsinthisreport56

II.Illustrative24-hourelectricalloadcurvein2024,2030,205057

III.FERCdefinitionofDERandDERAggregator57

IV.VPPEvolution58

V.VariationacrossVPPs59

VI.EnablinggridsoftwareandhardwaretechnologiesforVPPs60

VII.Potentialgridservices63

VIII.OverviewofVPPBusinessmodelcostandrevenuedrivers65

IX.CostandrevenuedetailforexamplesmartthermostatdemandresponseVPP66

X.2030flexibledemandcapacityandgridsavingspotentialdetail67

XI.ModelingtoolsavailablefromselectDOE-partnerednationallaboratories69

XII.Recommendationsforfurtheranalysis71

References72

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PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

PurposeofLiftoffreports

Liftoffreportsdescribethemarketopportunity,currentchallenges,andpotentialsolutionsforthe

commercializationofinterdependentcleanenergytechnologies.Liftoffreportsareanongoing,DOE-

ledefforttoengagedirectlywithenergycommunitiesandtheprivatesectoracrosstheentireclean-energylandscape.Theirgoalistocatalyzerapidandcoordinatedactionacrossthefulltechnologyvaluechain.

Reportswillbeupdatedregularlyaslivingdocumentsandarebasedonbest-availableinformationattimeofpublication.Formoreinformation,see

Liftoff.E

.

ObjectivesandScopeofthisLiftoffreportonVirtualPowerPlants

Thisreportismeantforadiverseaudienceofstakeholderswhocanhelpaccelerateliftofffor

virtualpowerplants(VPPs).FortheaudienceunfamiliarwithVPPs,thisreportaimstobuildfoundationalunderstandingoftheirvaluepropositionandtheassociatedbusinessmodelsandtechnologyinusetoday.Amongmoreexperiencedaudiences,thereportaimstocatalyzeandorganizeadialoguebetweenDOE,

stateandnationalregulators,policymakers,utilities,ISOs/RTOs,corporations,researchorganizations,

advocacygroups,andmorearoundchallengesandpotentialsolutionsforliftoff.Buildingonthisreport,

futureeffortscanincludenear-term,no-regretsactionsaswellasthedevelopmentofmoredetailed,longer-termroadmapsfortherapid,safe,equitable,andcost-effectivedeploymentofVPPs.

Thisreportisorganizedasfollows:

ĥChapter1:IntroductiondefinesVPPsanddistributedenergyresources(DERs)andsummarizestheVPPvalueproposition.

ĥChapter2:CurrentStateTechnologiesandMarketprovidesanoutlookforDERgrowth,explainsfoundationalconceptsofhowVPPsoperate,reviewshowVPPsparticipateinelectricitymarketsandcurrentdeploymenttrends,andpresentsexamplesoftheeconomicsofVPPbusinessmodels.

ĥChapter3:PathwaytoVPPLiftoffdescribesthepotentialopportunityforVPPsin2030,outlinesfiveimperativesforacceleratinggrowth,anddiscussesbroaderimplications.

ĥChapter4:ChallengestoLiftoffandPotentialSolutionsdiscusseschallengesassociatedwiththefiveimperatives,prioritypotentialsolutions,andassociatedactionsstakeholderscantake.

ĥChapter5:MetricstoTrackProgresssuggestsmetricsforleadingindicators,laggingindicators,andgoaloutcomesofVPPliftoff.

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PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

ExecutiveSummary

Withelectricitydemandgrowingforthefirsttimeinadecadeandfossilassetsretiring,deploying80-160GWofvirtualpowerplants(VPPs)—triplingcurrentscale—by2030couldsupportrapid

electrificationwhileredirectinggridspendingfrompeakerplantstoparticipantsandreducing

overallgridcosts.Between2023and2030,theU.S.willneedtoaddenoughnewpowergenerationcapacitytosupplyover200GWofpeakdemand;1weretheU.S.tofollowapathtowards100%cleanelectricityby

2035,newcapacityneedscouldnearlydouble.iInallscenarios,themixofweather-dependentrenewable

generationwillbeunprecedented,leadingtomorevariableelectricitysupplyandhigherdemandfor

transmissioncapacity.Transmissioninterconnectionbacklogs,whichhavestretchedtoanaverageoffive

years,posepotentialresourceadequacychallenges.

ii

Large-scaledeploymentofVPPscouldhelpaddress

demandincreasesandrisingpeaksatlowercostthanconventionalresources,reducingtheenergycostsforAmericans–oneinsixofwhomarealreadybehindonelectricitybills.

iii

VPPsareaggregationsofdistributedenergyresources(DERs)suchasrooftopsolarwithbehind-the-

meter(BTM)batteries,electricvehicles(EVs)andchargers,electricwaterheaters,smartbuildingsandtheir

controls,andflexiblecommercialandindustrial(C&I)loadsthatcanbalanceelectricitydemandandsupply

andprovideutility-scaleandutility-gradegridserviceslikeatraditionalpowerplant.VPPsenrollDERowners–includingresidential,commercial,andindustrialelectricityconsumers–inavarietyofparticipationmodelsthatofferrewardsforcontributingtoefficientgridoperations.

Virtualpowerplant

1PeakdemandintheU.S.isexpectedtogrowapproximately8%intheU.S.between2023and2030–from743GWto802GW—anincremental59GW(estimatedbyThe

BrattleGroupbasedontotalelectricityconsumptionprojectionsfromOfficeofPolicyNationalEnergyModelingSystemmid-caseelectrificationscenario).Itisestimated

162GWto183GWofgenerationwillberetiredbetween2023-2030.Ifretiringassetswereoperatingatfullcapacity,theretirementscombinedwithpeakdemandgrowthwouldimplyasupplygapof221to242GW.However,themajorityofrecentandexpectedretirementsareagingcoalplants,withsomeoilandnaturalgasplantsretiringaswell;retiringassetswilllikelybeoperatingbelowfullcapacity.Forthisreason,theneedisestimatedconservativelytobe~200GW(~60GWnewpeakdemand+~140GWpeakdemandnolongerservedbyassetsretired).

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PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

VPPsarenotnewandhavebeenoperatingwithcommerciallyavailabletechnologyforyears.Mostofthe30-60GWofVPPcapacitytodayisindemandresponseprogramsthatareusedwhenbulkpowersupplyislimited;theseprogramsturnoffordecreaseconsumptionfromDERssuchassmartthermostats,water

heaters,andcommercialandindustrialequipment.However,VPPshavethetechnicalpotentialtoperformawiderarrayoffunctions.ExamplefunctionsofVPPsonthemarkettodayincludeshiftingthetimingofEVchargingtoavoidoverloadinglocaldistributionsystemequipment,supplyinghomeswithenergyfromon-sitesolar-plus-storagesystemsduringpeakhourstoreducedemandonthebulkpowersystem,chargingdistributedbatteriesatopportunetimestoreduceutility-scalesolarcurtailment,dispatchingenergyfromcommercialEVbatteriesbacktothegrid,andcontributingancillaryservicestomaintainpowerquality,allwhileminimizingimpacttotheDERowner.

VPPscancontributetoresourceadequacy2atalowcost;equallyasimportantastheirfinancial

benefits,VPPsinvariousformscanincreaseresilience,reducegreenhousegasemissionsandair

pollution,reduceT&Dcongestion,empowercommunities,andbeadaptedtomeetevolvinggrid

needs.AVPPmadeupofresidentialsmartthermostats,smartwaterheaters,EVchargers,andBTMbatteries,forexample,couldprovidepeakingcapacityat40to60%lowernetcosttoautilitythanalternatives(autility-scalebatteryandanaturalgaspeakerplant).

iv

Ratherthanusingnaturalgaspeakerplantstoburnfueland

transportelectricityovertransmissionanddistribution(T&D)lines,utilitiescanuseVPPstopayparticipatingend-usersforbalancingdemandonthegridlocallywithDERsandsupportingsystems.

VPPvalueproposition

LimitedintegrationofVPPsintoelectricitysystemplanning,operations,andmarketparticipation

hasinhibitedgrowthtodate.Regulation-drivengridplanningrequirementsandcost-benefitassessmentsundervaluethepotentialbenefitsofVPPsinmostjurisdictions,deterringinvestmentinprogramsand

potentialgridupgradesthatenableVPPs.ToolsandprotocolsforVPPplanning,operations,measurement,andvaluationthatarenecessaryforutilitiesandregionalgridoperatorstointegrateVPPsintodistribution

systemsandbulkpowersystemshaveemerged,butvarybyserviceproviderandjurisdiction.ThiscomplexityandfragmentationhascontributedtoalackofconfidenceinthedependabilityofVPPsamongutilities,whichhasinturnledtomanyyearsofcollectingdatawithpilotsthat–despitetheirsuccess–haveyettoscaleup.

Deploying80-160GWofVPPsby2030tohelpaddressnationalcapacityneedscouldsaveontheorderof$10Binannualgridcostsandwilldirectgridspendingbacktoelectricityconsumers.3

Atthisscale,VPPscouldcontributeapproximately10-20%ofpeakdemand,withlocalvariationbasedonconditionssuchasDERavailabilityandmixofutility-scalerenewablegeneration.PotentialDERcapacity

thatcanbeenrolledinaVPPisgrowingatanacceleratingrate,withEVsrepresentingthevastmajorityofgrowthwithhighlyflexibledemand.Eachyearfrom2025to2030,thegridisexpectedtoadd:20-90GW

2Resourceadequacyreferstotheabilityoftheelectricgridtosatisfytheend-userpowerdemandatanygiventime;Itisanassessmentofwhetherthecurrentorprojectedresourcemixissufficienttomeetcapacityandenergyneedsforaparticulargrid.

3Savingsestimatesfor80GW($6B)to160GW($11B)ofVPPcapacityareestimatedbasedonthesavings-per-GWratiosofBrattle(2023)andClack(2021)analysisofpeak-coincidentflexibledemand/DERcapacity(est.$0.07BperGWinbothstudies).

4

PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

ofnameplate4demandcapacityfromEVcharginginfrastructure

v,vi

and300-540GWhofnameplatestoragecapacity

vii

fromEVbatteries;anadditional5-6GWofflexibledemandfromsmartthermostats,smartwaterheaters,andnon-residentialDER;

viii

20-35GWofnameplategenerationcapacityfromdistributedsolarandfuel-based

generators;ix,x

and7-24GWhofnameplatestoragecapacityfromstationarybatteries.

xi

VPPliftoff

Notes:2023VPPcapacitybasedonestimatesfromWoodMackenzie(2023)andFERC(2021).2030VPPcapacitypotentialandsavingspotentialbasedonindustryinterviewsandanalysisbyTheBrattleGroup(2023)andClacketal.(2021).Seefootnote1fordetailon

assetretirementsandpeakgrowthestimates.

ThisreportrepresentsanurgentcalltoactionforadiverserangeofstakeholderstoaccelerateVPPliftoff.ItismeanttoinitiateandorganizeadialoguebetweentheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE),other

publicsectorleaders,andtheprivatesectoronchartingthepathforward.Thisincludesprogressonfiveimperatives.

ImperativesforVPPliftoff

4ConversionofDERnameplatecapacitytoDERcontributiontoVPPintermsofflexibledemand,generation,andstoragecapacityvariesbyDERtype(e.g.,EVbattery&EVchargercontributionsdependonVPPparticipationrates,stateofcharge,drivingpatterns,andloadmanagementapproach).Estimatesofcapacityfromsmartthermostats,waterheaters,andnon-residentialdemandreflectflexiblecapacity.

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PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

1.ExpandDERadoptionwithequitablebenefits:Governments,nonprofitorganizations,utilities,

DERmanufacturers,andVPPplatformscancollaborateonholisticsupportforDERadoptionandVPPdeploymentthatprioritizesequitablebenefits,includingelectricitybillsavings,gridreliabilityand

resilience,airqualityimprovements,andjobopportunities.Offeringlow-costfinancingandrebatesforenergy-efficient,VPP-enableddevices,forexample,caninduceconsumerstoshiftspendingonequipmentorvehicleupgradestowardDERswithgreaterpotentialsystembenefits.

2.SimplifyVPPenrollment:Utilities,DERmanufacturers,VPPplatforms,consumeradvocates,and

regulatorscandevelopaphasedapproachtostreamlineVPPparticipantenrollment.Measuresincludeconsumereducation,automaticenrollmentofDERsintoVPPsatthepointofpurchasewithopt-out

options,andwiderVPP-enablementofDERdevices.

3.IncreasestandardizationinVPPoperations:Privatesectorandpublicsectorstakeholders

canimprovecoordinationandresourcingforthedevelopmentofguidelines,standards,and/or

requirementsthatmakeVPPsmorerepeatableandshortenthedesignandpilotstagesofindividualVPPdeployments.PriorityareasincludeimprovedDERandVPPforecastingtools,standardized

serviceagreementcontracts,andmeasurementandverification(M&V)methods.Standardizationofdistributiongridoperationsoverall(i.e.,includingandbeyondVPPs)willaccelerateliftoff;key

areasincludedistributionsystemreliabilitystandardsandformalizedgridcodestogovernsystemparticipants,DERinterconnectionanddatastandards,andcybersecurity.Increasedstandardization(Imperative3)willaccelerateVPPintegrationintoretailandwholesalemarkets(Imperatives4&5).

4.Integrateintoutilityplanningandincentives:Governments,utilities,andnonprofitorganizationscanincreaseresourcesandpersonnelsupportforutilityregulators(e.g.,publicutilitycommissions,boardsofcooperatives,andmore)toreviseorintroducenewdistributionsystemplanning

requirements,procurementprocesses,ratemaking,andcustomerprogramsthatpromotecost-

effectiveDERadoptionandVPPdeploymentwhileaccountingforpotentialnecessarygridupgrades.

5.Integrateintowholesalemarkets:Inrestructuredmarkets,5ISOs/RTOsmaybenefitfromtargetedsupportforthetimelyandinclusiveintegrationofVPPsintosystemplanningandmarketplacesasoutlinedinFERCOrder2222.

AsaparallelpathtoscalingupexistingDERandVPPtechnologiesandbusinessmodelsoperatingtoday(thefocusofthisreport),investmentsshouldcontinueinnext-generationDERandVPP

innovation.

DOEanditscollaboratorshaveover20complementaryprogramsunderwaytoaccelerateVPPliftoff.

ExistinginitiativesrangefromfinancingsupportforDERandVPPdeployment,thedevelopmentofVPP

modelingandplanningtools,demonstrationprojects,guidanceongridmodernizationstrategies,andmore.Additionalinitiativesmaytakeshapeinresponsetoindustryengagementthatthisreportaimstocatalyze.

5SeeChapter2forexplanationofrestructuredmarkets.ISO=Independentsystemoperator;RTO=Regionaltransmissionoperator;FERC=FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission.

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PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

ChapterOne:Introduction

Keytakeaways

ĥBetween2023and2030,theU.S.gridwilllikelyneedtoaddenoughnewcapacitytosupplyover200GWofelectricitydemandduringpeakhours.

ĥVPPsareaggregationsofdistributedenergyresources(DERs)thatcanbalanceelectricity

demandandsupplyandprovideutility-scaleandutility-gradegridservicesasanalternativeorsupplementtocentralizedresources.

ĥByusingDERssuchaswaterheaters,EVchargers,behind-the-meterbatteriesandrooftopsolarindifferentways,VPPscanexpandthegrid’scapacitytoserverisingpeakdemandatalowcost.

ĥEquallyasimportantastheirfinancialbenefits,VPPsinvariousformscanincreaseresilience,reducegreenhousegasemissionsandairpollution,reducetransmissionanddistributionsystemcongestion,giveconsumersgreaterfreedomovertheirelectricitysupplyandcost,createand

retaingoodjobs,andbeadaptedovertimetomeetevolvinggridneeds.

1.i.Virtualpowerplantdefinition

VPPsareaggregationsofDERsthatcanbalanceelectricalloads6andprovideutility-scaleand

utility-gradegridserviceslikeatraditionalpowerplant.DOEusesabroaddefinitionofVPPsthat

includesavarietyofmechanismsforaggregatingandorchestratingDERs,discussedindetailinChapter

2.Fundamentally,VPPsareatoolusedforflexingdistributeddemandandsupplyresourceswithalevelofdexteritythathashistoricallyonlybeenpossibleinflexingcentralizedsupply.

Justasdifferenttypesoftraditionalpowerplantscontributetothegridindifferentways(e.g.,

nuclearplantsprovidebaseloadgeneration,andwindfarmsprovidevariablegeneration),sotoododifferentconfigurationsofVPPs.7Forexample,themajorityofVPPstodaystrictlyshapethedemandfeltbytheelectricalgridbyorchestratingDERsthatconsumeelectricityand/orDERsthatgenerateandstore

electricitythatstaysbehindthemeterforon-siteuse(demand-shapingVPPs).AminorityofVPPssupply

electricitybacktothegridfrombehindthemeter(exportingVPPs).Seeappendixforalistofgridservicesandtheirdefinitions,andforamorecomprehensiveoverviewofvariationacrossVPPs.

1.ii.Distributedenergyresourcedefinition

DERsareequipmentlocatedonornearthesiteofend-usethatcanprovideelectricitydemand

flexibility,electricitygeneration,storage,orotherenergyservicesatasmallscale(sub-utilityscale)andaretypicallyconnectedtothelower-voltagedistributiongrid.Inthisreport,DERsaregrouped

intothreecategories:demand,generation,andstorage.ExamplesofdemandDERsincludeEVchargers,

smartthermostatspairedwithelectricheating,ventilation,andairconditioningsystems(HVAC)suchasheat

6Theterm‘electricalload’generallyreferstothedemandforelectricitynetofanylocallysuppliedelectricityfromdistributedgenerationorstoragethatreducetheamountofelectricitythegridneedstoprovidefromcentralizedassets.VPPsaredistinguishedfromotherloadbalancingstrategiesbytheiruseofaunifyingarchitecturethat

translatesasetofdistributedassetsactingindependentlyintooneutility-scaleresourcethat,onthewhole,canbepredictablyincorporatedintoactivemanagementofgridconditions.

7Theterm‘VPP’isusedinthisreporttorefertoacollectionofdifferentpotentialtypesofVPPs(andexamplesarespecifiedinChapter2),butitisimportanttoacknowledgethatdifferentVPPswillperformdifferentservicesanddeliverdifferentbenefits.Forexample,VPPscanintegratedistributedsolarandstorage,butnotallwill.Thevalue

propositionofVPPsinthischapterdescribeswhatcanbeaccomplishedwithdifferentVPPconfigurationsandisnotmeanttosuggestthateveryVPPwill,orshould,achieveeverygoal.

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PathwaystoCommercialLiftoff:VirtualPowerPlants

pumps,electricwaterheaters,andC&Iequipment.StorageDERsincludeBTMbatteriesandEVbatteries.GenerationDERsincludedistributedsolar(whichbecomesdispatchablewhenp