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August2024
SummaryandOilMarketContext
Demand
Forecastsforshort-termglobaloilconsumptionhaveslightlyreduceddivergencecomparedtolastmonth.OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthdownby0.1mb/dto2.1mb/dfor2024y/yforthefirsttimethisyear,butitsforecastsarestillhigherbymorethanamillionbarrelsadaycomparedtotheIEAandEIA.ThisslightrevisionbyOPECfeaturesrealdatacollectedforthefirstquarterof2024and,incertaininstances,thesecondquarterof2024.Additionally,itreflectsamodestdecreaseingrowthexpectationsforChineseoildemandin2024.Incontrast,theIEAandEIAexpectglobaldemandgrowthof0.9mb/dand1.1mb/d,respectively,forthesameyear.OPEChasalmostmaintaineditsforecastgrowthfor2025at1.8mb/d,whiletheEIAhasreviseditsestimatesdownby0.2mb/dto1.6mb/d,comparedtothe1.8mb/dgrowthinlastmonth’sestimates.TheIEAhasalsoreviseddownitsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsbyabout0.1mb/dfor2024y/y,whilekeepingthe2025forecastunchanged.
Supply
OPEChasmaintaineditsforecastofoilsupplygrowthfromnon-DeclarationofCooperation(non-DoC)countriesataround1.3mb/din2024,andkeptitsforecastgrowthfor2025at1.1mb/dy/y.ThegrowthisprimarilyfueledbyproductionincreasesinBrazil,theUS,andCanadaduringbothyears.TheEIAhaskeptitsforecastsfornon-OPECsupplygrowthat0.8mb/dfor2024y/y,whileslightlydowngradingthe2025growthestimateby0.1mb/dto1.6mb/dy/y.Meanwhile,theIEAhasmaintaineditsnon-DoCsupplygrowthprojectionsat1.5mb/dfor2024y/y,whilerevisingitssupplygrowthforecastupwardby0.1mb/dto1.7mb/din2025y/y.Thedisparityamongtheshort-termnon-DoCsupplygrowthforecastsfromthesethreeorganizationsisexpectedtoreach0.2mb/dfor2024and0.6mb/dfor2025.
EconomicGrowth(GDP)andOilDemand
TherecentlyreleasedeconomicforecastsoftheOECD,IMF,andWorldBankindicatenotablegrowthdisparitiesfor2025thatunderscoreuncertaintyinrelationtoeconomicgrowthandoildemand.TheOECDandIMFprojectasteadygrowthtrajectoryat3.21percentand3.2percentrespectively,whiletheWorldBankgivesamorecautiousoutlookfor2025at2.7percent.EnergydemandgrowthremainscloselyalignedwithGDPgrowthmainlyindevelopingandemergingeconomies.Althougheconomicrecessionstypicallyresultintemporarydeclinesinoildemand,historicaltrendssuggestthattheseimpactsarelimitedandrapidlyoffsetbysustainedincreasesinoildemand.Thisreboundisoftendrivenbyfactorssuchaslowprices,opportunitiestoreplenishcommercialandstrategicstocksordemandsupportfrommonetaryandfiscalpolicies,includingquantitativeeasing.Overthepasttwodecades,globaloildemandestimatesfromtheIEAandEIAhaveconsistentlyexceededthosefromOPEC.However,sincetheaftermathoftheCOVID-19pandemic,increasinglyambitiousassumptionsregardingoildemandsubstitution-fueledbyrapidadvancementsincleantechnologiesandefficiencyimprovements-havegainedtraction,potentiallyreversingthistrend(seenextpage).
CompoundOilMarketVolatility
Oilmarketsareexposedtomultiplelayersofuncertaintymanifestindivergingeconomicandoildemandoutlooks,broadeningmilitaryconflictsinboththeMiddleEastandEurope,recentstockmarketcorrectionsaffectingshortandlongoilfuturespositions,andtheuncertainoutcomeofUSElectionsonenergyandclimatepolicy.Digitaldisruptions,anddatadependencyofmonetarypolicyfurthercloudoilmarketsstability.Thoughasoftlandingisstillconsideredmoreprobablethanaglobaldownturn,riskanduncertaintyprevailandcaneasilyshiftconsensus.
2
Economicgrowthandoildemandovertime
110
105
GlobalOilDemand(mb/d)
100
95
90
85
80
75
GlobalGDPGrowth(%)
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
8%
GDPminGDPmaxIEAEIAOPEC
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR,IMF,OECDandWorldBank
Note:TherangebetweentheminimumandmaximumGDPvaluesreflectsthedisparityamongthethreereportedfiguresfromtheIMF,WorldBank,andOECDforeachyear.OilDemand(right-lines)andGDPGrowth(left-bars).Thedottedbarsandlinesrepresentforecastedestimates.
3
Summaryof2023-2025Balances
•OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthdownto2.1mb/dfor2024y/yforthefirsttimethisyear,from2.2mb/dinthelastrevision,whilemaintainingitsforecastfor2025.
•DespitetheslightrevisiondownfromOPECthismonth,thedivergenceinglobaldemandgrowthforecastsisstillhighacrossthethreeagencies,withmorethanamillionbarrelsperdaydifferencein2024.
•TheEIAhaskeptitsforecastforglobaldemandgrowththisyearat1.1mb/dwhiledowngradingitsforecastbyapproximately0.2mb/dto1.6mb/dfor2025y/y.
lowestforecast
highestforecast
2023-2025BalanceSummary
2023
2024
2025
20232023Y/Y
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
2025Y/Y
IEA
102.1
2.1
101.3
102.8
104.0
103.8
103.0
0.9
102.3
103.6
105.0
104.8
103.9
1.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
102.2
2.6
103.1
103.7
104.8
105.6
104.3
2.1
104.9
105.4
106.8
107.3
106.1
1.8
EIA
101.8
2.0
101.8
102.8
103.5
103.6
102.9
1.1
104.0
104.2
104.9
105.1
104.5
1.6
IEA
45.7
0.1
44.8
45.6
45.9
45.9
45.5
-0.1
44.8
45.2
45.9
45.7
45.4
-0.1
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.7
0.1
45.0
45.8
46.3
46.2
45.8
0.2
45.1
45.9
46.4
46.3
45.9
0.1
EIA
45.6
0.1
44.8
45.4
46.2
46.3
45.7
0.0
45.7
45.4
46.2
46.4
45.9
0.2
IEA
56.4
2.0
56.5
57.2
58.1
57.9
57.4
1.0
57.5
58.4
59.1
59.1
58.6
1.1
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
56.6
2.5
58.2
57.9
58.6
59.4
58.5
1.9
59.8
59.5
60.4
61.0
60.2
1.7
EIA
56.2
1.9
57.0
57.4
57.3
57.3
57.2
1.1
58.4
58.8
58.7
58.7
58.6
1.4
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
74.8
2.4
74.9
75.7
76.1
76.5
75.8
1.0
76.5
77.7
78.1
78.5
77.7
1.9
OPECNGLs
EIA
74.9
2.4
75.1
75.5
75.9
76.2
75.7
0.8
76.1
77.0
77.8
78.2
77.3
1.6
IEA
59.8
2.6
60.3
61.3
61.8
62.0
61.3
1.5
61.9
63.0
63.4
63.6
63.0
1.7
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
OPEC
60.0
2.6
61.0
61.3
61.2
61.7
61.3
1.3
62.3
62.3
62.4
63.0
62.5
1.1
EIA
60.0
2.5
60.5
61.3
62.0
62.1
61.5
1.5
61.8
62.6
63.3
63.6
62.8
1.4
CallonOPEC
IEA
27.3
-0.3
26.4
27.1
27.9
27.3
27.2
-0.2
25.8
26.0
26.9
26.4
26.3
-0.9
EIA
26.9
-0.4
26.7
27.3
27.6
27.4
27.3
0.4
27.9
27.2
27.1
26.9
27.3
0.0
IEA
42.3
-0.5
41.0
41.5
42.2
41.8
41.7
-0.6
40.4
40.6
41.6
41.2
40.9
-0.7
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
42.2
-0.1
42.1
42.4
43.6
43.8
43.0
0.8
42.6
43.1
44.5
44.3
43.6
0.6
EIA
41.8
-0.6
41.3
41.5
41.6
41.5
41.5
-0.4
42.2
41.6
41.6
41.5
41.7
0.3
GlobalStockChangeandMiscellaneousto
Balance**
IEA
OPECEIA
0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.5
-0.9
-0.1
0.0
-1.5-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
-1.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
-0.1
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
4
Summaryof2023-2025Balances
•TheEIAhasrevisedupitsforecastsforOECDdemandby0.1mb/dfor2024y/y,andthisincreasewasoffsetbya
downwardrevisioningrowthfromnon-OECDcountries,whichkeptglobaldemandunchanged.TheEIA’s2025globaldemandgrowthforecastshowsadownwardrevisionof0.2mb/dy/y.
•TheIEAhasreviseddownitsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsby0.1mb/dforboththefullyear2024andthefullyear2025.
•OPECreleaseditsforecastswithnochangeinnon-DoCsupplygrowthfor2024and2025y/y.
Month-on-MonthRevisions:2023-2025BalanceSummary
2023
2024
2025
20232023Y/Y
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
2025Y/Y
IEA
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
IEA
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
IEA
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
OPECNGLs
EIA
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
IEA
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
OPEC
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
CallonOPEC
IEA
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
IEA
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
0.0
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
GlobalStockChangeandMiscellaneousto
Balance**
IEA
OPECEIA
0.00.00.0
0.00.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.00.4-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
5
2024OutlookComparison
6
Summaryof2024BalancesandRevisions
•OPEChasreviseddownitsforecastforglobaloildemandgrowthin2024by0.1mb/d,bringingthenewprojectionto2.1mb/dy/y.ThismarksthefirsttimeOPEChascutits2024globaldemandgrowthestimatethisyear,althoughitsforecastsremainhigherbymorethanamillionbarrelsadaycomparedtotheprojectionsfromtheIEAandEIA.
•EIAhasrevisedupitsOECDdemandgrowthby0.1mb/dforthefullyearin2024,whiletheIEAkeptitsgrowthforecastunchanged.
2024BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q242Q243Q244Q24
20242024Y/Y
1Q242Q243Q244Q24
20242024Y/Y
IEA
101.3
102.8
104.0
103.8
103.0
0.9
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
GlobalDemand
OPEC
103.1
103.7
104.8
105.6
104.3
2.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
101.8
102.8
103.5
103.6
102.9
1.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
IEA
44.8
45.6
45.9
45.9
45.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.0
45.8
46.3
46.2
45.8
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
44.8
45.4
46.2
46.3
45.7
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
IEA
56.5
57.2
58.1
57.9
57.4
1.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
58.2
57.9
58.6
59.4
58.5
1.9
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
57.0
57.4
57.3
57.3
57.2
1.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
74.9
75.7
76.1
76.5
75.8
1.0
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
OPECNGLs
EIA
75.1
75.5
75.9
76.2
75.7
0.8
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
IEA
60.3
61.3
61.8
62.0
61.3
1.5
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
OPEC
61.0
61.3
61.2
61.7
61.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
60.5
61.3
62.0
62.1
61.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
CallonOPECCrude
IEA
26.4
27.1
27.9
27.3
27.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
26.7
27.3
27.6
27.4
27.3
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
IEA
41.0
41.5
42.2
41.8
41.7
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
42.1
42.4
43.6
43.8
43.0
0.8
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
41.3
41.5
41.6
41.5
41.5
-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
GlobalStockChangeandMisctoBalance**
IEA
OPECEIA
0.5-0.9-0.1
0.0-1.5-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
0.00.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
7
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Evolutionof2024AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
•OPEChasreviseddownitsglobaloildemandgrowthin2024forthefirsttimethisyear,drivenbynewdatacollectionandslightlyslowerexpectationsforChineseoildemandgrowth.
•TheEIA's2024globaldemandgrowthforecastshowsanupwardrevisionforthefourthconsecutivemonth,drivenbyanincreaseinOECDdemandthismonth.
•IEAreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastfor2024by0.1mb/dy/y.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
-0.5
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
8
OPECforecaststhattotalglobaldemandgrowthisexpectedto
be~1.2mb/dhigherthantheIEA’sforecastfor2024
2024DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Rangein2024DemandGrowth
Forecasts
GlobalTotalNon-OECD
China TotalOECDOtherNon-OECDMiddleEast
RussiaOECDAmericas OECDAsia OECDEuropeIndia
Africa
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.2
millionbarrelsperday
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
9
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Evolutionof2024AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
•TheEIA’sy/ygrowthinnon-OPECsupplyhasbeenreviseddownforthethirdconsecutivemonth.
•TheIEA'sforecastforUSsupplygrowthisstillapproximately0.2mb/dhigherthanthoseforecastedbyOPECandtheEIA.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
ForecastVintage
Non-DoCSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMRNote:BeginninginMay2024,OPECstoppedpublishingsupplyforecastsfornon-OPECmembersoftheDeclaration
ofCooperation(DoCorcommonlyknownasOPEC+)
10
EIAandIEAhavealmostsimilarforecastsfortotalNon-DoC
supplygrowth,despitedifferencesintheirprojectionsfortheUSandCanada
2024SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
IEAOPEC
1.4EIA
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rangein2024SupplyGrowthForecasts
0.3
TotalNon-DoC
US Africa CanadaDoCNGLs China Norway BrazilMiddleEast
S.Am.ex.Brazil
millionbarrelsperday
11
ThedisparitybetweenOPEC's'callonDoC'forecastandthose
fromtheIEAandEIArangesfrom1.3mb/dtoapproximately1.5mb/d
2024CallonDoCCrudeandRecentDoCProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
44.043.543.042.542.041.541.040.540.039.5
44.5
1Q24
3Q24
2Q24
4Q24
2024Avg
mmIEAOPEC
EIAApril'24DoCCrudeProductionLevel
HistoricalDoCCrudeProductionLevel
The“callonDoCcrude”isa
calculationandnotaforecastofactual
production.
The“callonDoCcrude”
estimateswhatOPEC+
wouldneedtoproducetobalanceglobalsupplyanddemand.
Itisestimatedbysubtractingaforecastfornon-DoC
productionandDoCNGLsfromglobaldemand.
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
12
2025OutlookComparison
13
Summaryof2025BalancesandRevisions
•Thedivergenceinglobaloildemandgrowthforecastsamongmajoragenciesremainssignificant,despitethismonth’sdownwardrevisionbytheEIA.
•AlthoughOPEChasslightlyreviseditsestimatedownwardforglobaldemand,itslevelsremainapproximately0.8mb/dabovetheIEAprojectionsand0.2mb/dhigherthanthoseoftheEIA.
•TheEIAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastdownwardbyapproximately0.2mb/dy/y
2025BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q252Q253Q254Q25
20252025Y/Y
1Q252Q253Q254Q25
20252025Y/Y
IEA
102.3
103.6
105.0
104.8
103.9
1.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
104.9
105.4
106.8
107.3
106.1
1.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
104.0
104.2
104.9
105.1
104.5
1.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
IEA
44.8
45.2
45.9
45.7
45.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.1
45.9
46.4
46.3
45.9
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
45.7
45.4
46.2
46.4
45.9
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
IEA
57.5
58.4
59.1
59.1
58.6
1.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
59.8
59.5
60.4
61.0
60.2
1.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
58.4
58.8
58.7
58.7
58.6
1.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
76.5
77.7
78.1
78.5
77.7
1.9
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
OPECNGLs
EIA
76.1
77.0
77.8
78.2
77.3
1.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
IEA
61.9
63.0
63.4
63.6
63.0
1.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
OPEC
62.3
62.3
62.4
63.0
62.5
1.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
61.8
62.6
63.3
63.6
62.8
1.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
CallonOPEC
IEA
25.8
26.0
26.9
26.4
26.3
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
27.9
27.2
27.1
26.9
27.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
IEA
40.4
40.6
41.6
41.2
40.9
-0.7
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
42.6
43.1
44.5
44.3
43.6
0.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
42.2
41.6
41.6
41.5
41.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
GlobalStockChangeand
Misc.toBalance**
EIA
-1.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
14
Thedivergenceinglobaloildemandbetweenthethreeagenciesin
4Q25isexpectedtobemorethandoublethedivergenceprojectedfor2Q24
2024-25GlobalDemand
millionbarrelsperday
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25
IEAOPECEIAIEApreviousOPECpreviousEIAprevious
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
15
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Evolutionof2025AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
•OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastdownwardforthefirsttimethisyear.
•DespitethedownwardrevisionbyOPEC,itsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsisstill0.8mb/dhigherthantheIEA’sprojections.
•IEAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsdownwardforthethirdconsecutivemonth.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPECEIA
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
16
Non-OECDcountriesaccountforapproximately94%oftheglobal
demandgrowthinOPEC’sforecastsandmorethan86%inEIA’sforecasts
2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
GlobalTotalNon-OECD TotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOECDAmericas OECDEurope MiddleEastChina
OECDAsia
IndiaAfricaRussia
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Rangein2025DemandGrowth
Forecasts
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
17
TheIEAandEIAhaveprojectedstrongernon-DoCsupplygrowth
in2025comparedtoOPEC'sforecast
2024-25Non-DoCSupply
millionbarrelsperday
64
64
63
62
62
61
61
63
60
1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25
IEAOPECEIAIEApreviousOPECpreviousEIAprevious
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
18
Evolutionof2025AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
•TheIEA’snon-OPECsupplygrowthforecasthassurpassedtheprojectionsmadebytheEIAforthefirsttimethismonth.
•TheIEA'sforecastforUSoilsupplygrowthisnearlyalignedwiththeEIA’sprojections,however,bothremainapproximately0.13mb/dhigherthantheOPECestimates.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-DoCSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
19
ThedisparitybetweenIEAandEIAforthetotalNon-DoCsupply
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