电池生产计划的制定概述

飞轮电池生产计划的制定市场需求预测-----------------------4实际产品的生产工艺路线分析--------10生产方式的经济分析和比较----------11制定综合生产计划------------------13生产能力的粗平衡------------------14制定主生产计划--------------------14制定MRP,CRP----------------------14生产能力的精平衡------------------39零件工序卡编制--------------------39产品装配工序卡编制----------------411.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）实验数据month1month2month3month4month5month6month7month8month9month10month11month12year91824211020272311222926quarter？？？？根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近，而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARMONTH ACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0251510.00019.3279.6640.3361620.00019.77619.7760.2241727.00020.22426.9660.0341823.00020.67324.1181.1181911.00021.12110.5610.43911022.00021.57021.5700.43011129.00022.01829.3580.35811226.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARMONTHFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND2111.45810.91012.0062223.36422.26824.4602331.75030.28933.2122428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167由决定系数R=0.942和相关系数R2=0.8872，预测结果准确性很高。预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：month1month2month3month4year212243228方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型进行预测预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-----------------------------------------------------SalesSalesABSOLUTEPERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR19.00014.8465.846218.00015.7832.217324.00016.7207.280421.00017.6573.343510.00018.5948.594620.00019.5310.469727.00020.4696.531823.00021.4061.594911.00022.34311.3431022.00023.2801.2801129.00024.2174.7831226.00025.1540.846-----------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND1326.09114.97437.2081427.02815.91138.1451527.96516.84839.0821628.90217.78540.019REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=13.9091b=0.9371R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354误差分析：R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以我采取第一种预测方法。实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程生产提前期12345MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒Q235-A锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-04电磁铁铁芯DW314-50锻造1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精铣钻孔、扩孔精车2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造铣削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-09-01盘片45铸造热处理车削精车钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-02磁环电工纯铁模锻车削铣削1MLF-09-03压环45铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔23.生产方式的经济分析与比较(AlternativePlansComparison)Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。首先,计算计划一年雇用、解雇的工人数量和在这一年的平均库存。1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matchingdemand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112InventoryaddingorsubtractionBeginninginventoryEndinginventoryAverageinventorypermonthAverageinventoryperyear1210221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)14911.500000000000000000然后,计算两种方案的成本：1234567AggregateplanTotalannualnumberofworkershiredTotalannualnumberofworkerslaidoffAverageannualinventoryAnnualhiringandlayoffcostAnnualinventorycarryingcostTotalannualsubtractioncostTotalannualincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matchingdemand4854037200(4+1)*180012720备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matchingdemand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000＄再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下：Costoflevelcapacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Costofmatchingdemand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用Costofmatchingdemand-Costoflevelcapacity=123120-121612.5=1507.5。Levelcapacity比Matchingdemand的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：每台成本是600*2.5=1500外协：每台是1800因为对于matchingdemand中第三月和第四月共缺5台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过外协和加班两者的比较可以看出，两者的费用差不多，但考虑到Levelcapacity的生产方式比Matchingdemand生产方式更加稳定；Levelcapacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matchingdemand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Levelcapacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，我选择Levelcapacity生产方式。4.制定综合生产计划(AggregatePlanning)1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory11224720182242472003322472004292472005.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)生产能力粗平衡Monthfinalassemblyhours1234Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Load(hours)4200420042004200Capacity(hours)4900490049004900由上表可知生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6制定主生产计划(MasterProductionSchedule)主生产计划Month1Month2Month3Month4周数1234123412341234总需求量12243229期初库存10222214需求数量6666期末库存22221497.1MRP7制定MRP,CRP(MaterialRequirementPlanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)012数量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF-111MLF-121各个零件选择用LotForLot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得：***MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)***==============================================================================PROBLEMNAME:Untitled==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize00001080LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available20000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0311000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0512000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070010000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070322000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070421000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases3018181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070522000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070621000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements2436363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements2436363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts2436363636363636PlannedOrderReleases6036363636363636****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements3636363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements3636363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts3636363636363636PlannedOrderReleases363636363636360****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090010000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090122000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****----------------------------------