世界银行-宜居星球的就业机会：清洁能源转型创造就业机会的潜力（英）

REPORTJOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionREPORTJOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionZuzanaDobrotkováSheoliPargalNicolasFichauxABOUTESMAPTheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankandover20partnerstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ESMAP’sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBank’scountryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBank,ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7),whichensuresaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodernenergyforall.IthelpsshapeWorldBankstrategiesandprogramstoachievetheWorldBank’sClimateChangeActionPlantargets.Learnmoreat:.©December2023|InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:ThisworkisaproductoftheWorldBank,withcontributionsgivenbythestaffandconsultantslistedintheacknowledgments.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:///licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.JobsforaLivablePlanet:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition.Washington,DC:TheWorldBank.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythirdparty-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@.ProductionCredits—Designer|CircleGraphics,Inc.CoverImage|©WorldBankPhotos|p.xxiv©EnricoFabian/WorldBank,p.4©WorldBank,p.16,p.76,p.84©Florio,p.30©EXAStudio/WorldBank,p.62©CelineFerre/WorldBankAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.AcknowledgmentsThisworkwasmadepossiblebytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withfinancialsupportfromtheRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairsofDenmark.ESMAPisapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand19donorstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ThereportwaspreparedbyZuzanaDobrotková(SeniorEnergySpecialist),SheoliPargal(LeadEnergyEconomist),andNicolasFichaux(SeniorEnergyConsultant).TheworkwasinitiatedundertheguidanceofRohitKhanna(PracticeManager,ESMAP)andcompletedunderGabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager,ESMAP),withoverallstrategicdirectionprovidedbyDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractivesGlobalPractice).Theteamacknowledgestheimportantinputs,insightsandassistancereceivedfromSudeshnaGhoshBanerjee(RegionalDirector),UlrikeLehr(SeniorEconomist),TuChiNguyen(SeniorEnergyEconomist),AndersPedersen(SeniorEnergySpecialist),NathyeliAcunaCastillo(GenderSpecialist)andAnnaAghababyan(SeniorOperationsOfficer)andWorldBankconsultantsStephaniePinnington,andKavitaRai.Editor:StevenKennedy.JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETviiAboutthisReportThisreportpresentsthefindingsandconclusionsofaprogramofanalyticalworkundertakentoinvestigatetheimpactsoftheglobaltransitiontocleanenergyonthequantityandqualityofjobsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Undertheprogram,entitled“EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition,”theWorldBank’sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)undertookmultiplestreamsofanalysis:•••Areviewoftheliteratureandcommonlyusedmethodologiesofinvestigation(WorldBank2023a)ModelingofeconomywidejobimpactsofpoliciessupportingthecleanenergytransitioninselectedcountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica(WorldBank2023b)CasestudiesoftheeffectsonemploymentofselectedWorldBankcleanenergyprojects(WorldBank2023d;WorldBank2023e;WorldBank2023f;WorldBank2023g;WorldBank2023h;WorldBank2023i;WorldBank2023l)•Deepdivesintotheimpactonjobsofclosureofcoal-firedpowerplants(WorldBank2023j);ofproductiveusesofelectricityassociatedwithminigridsinNigeria(WorldBank2023k);andoftheRusumoFallsHydropowerProject(WorldBank2023c).Inadditiontothisreport,buildingontheabove-mentionedstreamsofanalysis,theprogramhasproducedadiscussionpapertosupportprojectdesign,“TrackingJobsinProjectsFocusedonCleanEnergyandProductiveUsesofElectricity”(WorldBank2023m).ThenoteprovidesstrategiesfortrackingandenhancingjobcreationthatcanbeusedintheWorldBankGroup’scleanenergylendingoperations.Italsodocumentsthejobcreationbenefitsofthediversesetofprojectsexaminedinthecasestudiesabove.Thereportsunderthisprogramtogetheraimtosupportlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinreapinggreatersocioeconomicbenefitsfromtheenergytransitionbysupportingtheminincreasingthenumberandqualityoflocaljobsgeneratedwhileimplementingcleanenergyprojects.Thereportstargetmultipleaudiences,frompolicymakerstodevelopmentpractitionersandacademics.Theyalsoaimtofamiliarizeenergyspecialistswiththeeffectsofenergyprojectsonjobsandgivethemtoolsthatenablethemtotakeaccountof—and,wherepossible,maximize—thesocioeconomicbenefitsofthecleanenergytransition.Reapingthebenefitsofthejobscreatedbycleanenergyinterventionswilldependoneffectiveplanningandpreparationintheearlystagesofprojectsandsustainedsupportduringtheirimplementation.viiiABOUTTHISREPORTAbbreviationsCGEDPOsDREEEcomputablegeneralequilibriumDevelopmentPolicyOperationsdistributedrenewableenergyenergyefficiencyEJETPEPMESMAPFTEEskomJustEnergyTransitionProjectElectricityPlanningModelEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgramfull-timeequivalentGDPGHGIEAgrossdomesticproductgreenhousegasesInternationalEnergyAgencyinput-outputIOIRENALADPMWInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyLocalAreaDevelopmentPlanmegawatt(s)O&MPIAACPUEPVoperationandmaintenanceProgrammefortheInternationalAssessmentofAdultCompetenciesproductiveuseofelectricityphotovoltaicsRErenewableenergyT&DVREtransmissionanddistributionvariablerenewableenergyAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETixGlossaryDirectjobsJobsassociatedwiththedesign,development,management,construction/installation,andmaintenanceofprojectsandprojectfacilities.EmploymentfactorsFull-timeequivalentAjobs-per-megawattemploymentcalculation.Thenumberofhoursconsideredfull-timework.Forexample,ifacompanyconsiders40ꢀhoursfulltime,thentwoemployeesworking20ꢀhoursperweekwouldequal1.0full-timeequivalent(FTE).IndirectjobsInducedjobsJobsassociatedwiththemanufacturingofequipmentandmaterialsusedforafacility,thesupplychainthatprovidestherawmaterialsandservicesneededforthemanufacturingprocess,andthefinanceandbankingsectorsthatprovideservicesfortheconstructionandoperationofafacility.Jobscreatedduetothespendingofearningsbypersonsdirectlyandindirectlyemployedbyaproject.Inducedjobscanalsostemfromincreasedspendingusingconsumersavingsachievedthankstoenergyefficiency,thecostcompetitivenessofrenewablesorjobsstemmingfromproductiveusesofelectricityfromnewlyacquiredenergyaccess.LocaldevelopmentAmultidimensionalconceptofchangebringingtogethereconomic,social,cultural,andenvironmentaldimensions.Localdevelopmentmaybeseenasamethodthathelpsimprovequalityoflife,supportingoracceleratingtheempowermentofpeople,developingorpreservinglocalassets,strengtheningcohesion,anddefininganddeliveringgrassrootsdevelopmentprojects.On-the-jobtrainingAtrainingapproachbywhichtraineesacquiretheskillsandcompetenciesneededforajobinanactualworkplaceenvironment.Quasi-naturalexperimentQuasi-naturalexperimentsrefertoserendipitoussituationsinwhicheconomicagentsarerandomlyassignedtotreatmentorcontrolgroups,approximatingtherandomizeddesignofawell-controlledexperimentandallowingcausalinference.PieceratecontractApieceratecontractreferstopaymentperunitofworkratherthanperunitoftime.xGLOSSARYRandomizedcontroltrialsTherandomizedcontroltrialisatrialinwhichsubjectsarerandomlyassignedtooneoftwogroups:one(theexperimentalgroup)receivingtheinterventionthatisbeingtested,andtheother(thecomparisongrouporcontrol)receivinganalternative(conventional)treatment.SkillsdevelopmentTheacquisitionofpracticalcompetencies,know-how,andattitudesnecessarytoperformatradeoroccupationinthelabormarket.SociallicenseInthisreport,asociallicenseistheacceptancegrantedtoacompany,organization,orindustrybyacommunity.Theconceptencompassesacompany’sorindustry’sstandardbusinesspracticesandoperatingprocedures.SocioeconomicbenefitsTangiblesocialandeconomicimprovementstoinequality,poverty,andmarginalization,measuredthroughemployment,income,resourceaccess,andpowerandcontrol.Thisreportfocusesonthreecategoriesofsocioeconomicbenefits:domesticvaluecreation,localdevelopment,andgenderequalityandsocialinclusion.TechnicalandvocationaleducationandtrainingAformofeducationdesignedtodeveloppracticalskills,understanding,andknowledgerelatingtospecificoccupations,ofteninthetrades(forexample,electricalworks,plumbing,etc.).JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETxiKeyFindingsTheglobaltransitiontocleanenergymustaccelerateifglobalwarmingistobelimitedto1.5°Ctoavoiddevastatingclimatechange.Thetransitionwillresultindisruptivechangestoenergyproductionandconsumptionwiththegrowthofsustainableenergytechnologies,suchasrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency,atthesametimeastraditionalfossil-fuelindustrieswillprogressivelyphase-out.Thesechangeswillalsoresultinnewdemandsonenergyinfrastructure,suchastheexpansionofpowergridsandenergystorage.ThemassiveinvestmentinsustainableenergyandtheinfrastructureupgradesrequiredforthetransitiontocleanenergywillprovideasignificantimpetustoGDPgrowthandjobcreation.Jobswillbecreatedintheenergysectorandintherelatedsectorsoftheeconomy.Atthesametime,jobsdependentonfossilfuelswilldecreaseovertime.Thesuccessofthistransitionwilldependcruciallyonhowtheimpactsonthelaborforce,i.e.,the‘jobstransition’,ismanaged,andparticularlywhetheritisseentobe‘just’tothosewhoarenegativelyimpacted.Keyquestionsforpolicymakersthereforerelatetofacilitatingjobcreation,managingthejoblossesthatwillensue,andensuringthatthosewholosetheirlivelihoodsandwayoflifeduetotheenergytransitionaremadewhole.Inthecommunitiesthatareentirelydependentonfossilfuelsproduction,theimpactsoftheenergytransitioncanbeexistential,sothoughtfulandinclusiveplanningwillbeneededforaneconomicallyandsociallyacceptabletransition.Whatkindsofjobswillthetransitiontocleanpowercreate?Whatskillswillworkersneedinthesenewjobs?Howcangovernmentstakeadvantageofsustainableenergyprojectstosupportlocalemploymentandthereforeincreasesocio-economicbenefitsoftheseprojects?Internationalenergythinktanks,academia,theInternationalLabourOrganizationaswellastheWorldBankhaveshownthattheenergytransitionwillcreatesignificantnetadditionalemploymentintheenergyandassociatedsectorsandaboosttoeconomicgrowthandoveralljobsintheeconomythroughthenewenergyinvestment.Whetherthejobscreatedarelocalorcreatedabroadwilldeterminetheextenttowhichtheybenefitthelocaleconomy.Jobsarecreateddirectlybypowersectorprojectsatallstages—design,construction,commissioning,operationandmaintenance,anddecommissioning.Aboutonethirdofthesejobsrequirehighlyskilledprofessionalswithtraininginengineering,finance,projectmanagement,law,etc.,whilethebalancerequireasemi-skilledorunskilledworkforceoftechnicians,constructionworkersanddiversesupportroles,oftenrecruitedlocally.WorldBankprojectexperienceshowsthatsustainableenergyjobsareattractive,withcompetitiveremunerationandgoodemploymentconditions.Forsemiskilledandunskilledpositionson-the-jobtrainingisoftenprovidedduetothelackofskillsneeded.Tomaximizedomesticjobcreation,governments,incollaborationwithprivatesector,shouldsetupappropriatexiiKEYFINDINGStechnicalandvocationaleducationprograms,preferablyintheareasdesignatedforfuturecleanenergydevelopment.Toincreasefemaleparticipation,governmentsshouldadoptagenderagendawithspecifictargetsandmandatesandfollowthroughonitsgoalsinindividualprojects.Indirectjobsorjobscreatedupstreamofprojectinvestments,particularlythoserequiringhighlyspecializedskills,specialmaterials,orspecifictechnologies,areoftenlocatedinafewcountriesoverseas.Tomaximizethepotentialforlocalemploymentgenerationinthesupplychainsofcleanenergytechnologies,governmentsshouldidentifywhichpartsofthevaluechainsarealreadyproducedlocally–cement,aluminummountingstructuresorcablingwouldbetypicalexamples–andwhichpartsofthevaluechainscouldbedevelopedovertimeinacost-competitivemanner–heatpumps,efficientbuildinginsulationmaterials,energyefficientwindowsareexamplesoftheequipmentwhoselocalproduction,reflectingthespecificitiesofthelocalbuildingstock,couldbeworthwhiletopursue.Incountrieswithabundantmetalormineraldeposits,developmentofminingrelatedtomaterialsneededforcleanenergyequipmentisaclearavenuetopursue.Jobsassociatedwiththeincreaseineconomicactivityduetoenergysectorinvestments,so-called‘induced’jobs,representmostofthejobscreatedbytheenergytransition.Theyarenotrestrictedtotheenergysectorandcouldultimatelybelongerlastingthanjobsassociateddirectlywithprojectconstructionoroperationsandmaintenance.Aregulatoryandpolicyframeworkthatfacilitatescreationandexpansionofbusinesses;assistslabormobility,andsupportsre-skillingisanimportantenablerofinducedjobcreation.Complementaryactionssuchasawarenessraising,accesstocreditandavailabilityofnewtechnologiesenablingproductiveuseofpowercanhelptoensureanincreaseinenterpriseproductivityrelatedtotheimprovedpowersupply.Asfossilfuelsandtherelatedindustriesarephasingout,canthelaborreleasedinthisprocessbeemployedinsustainableenergysectors?Howcanthe‘jobstransitions’beassmoothaspossible?Governmentsneedtoplantoreplacefossilfuelsbyassessingoptionsforinvestmentincleanenergyanddevelopingstrategiesforadoption.Thelossoffossilfueljobswillnottranslateone-for-oneintonewcleantechnologyjobs,complicatingthelabortransition.Decidingonrepurposingoptionsforexistingfossilfuelinfrastructureandfacilitiesshouldtakeintoconsiderationtheimplicationsofdifferentoptionsforgeneratinglocalbenefits,includingemployment.WorldBankanalysishasshownthatthetasksinvolved,andskillsrequired,forcleanenergyjobsarequitedifferentfromthoserequiredinfossil-fueledpowerplants;indeed,jobsinthelatterareclosertothoseinconstructionandmanufacturing.Themostpromisingrepurposingoptionsmaythereforenotbeintheenergysectorandwhendecisionsaremadeitisimportanttotakeintoaccounttheskillsetsandjobtransitionpreferencesofcurrentemployees.Thetransitionprocessforthelaborforceshouldincludeadeterminationofwhichworkerswouldretire,whichcouldbere-skilledandthejobstheycouldbere-deployedto.GovernmentswillneedtodesignthecorrespondingeducationalandtrainingprogramstofosterskillsJOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETxiiineededfordevelopmentofcleanenergytechnologiesorotherindustriesidentifiedforre-deploymentoflabor,consistentwiththecountry’sstrategicandpolicyobjectivesandtointernationalstandards.Theywillneedtocreatelabortransitionpathsthatarecrediblefromaskillspointofviewandlifestylepointofview,andtheywillneedtoconductactivelabormarketoutreachtoenhanceawarenessofcareeropportunitiesincleanenergy.Coordinationandcollaborationbetweendifferentministrieswillbecrucialinthisrespect,whilethefeedbackfromtheprivatesectorremainscrucialtodelivergovernmentalprogramscorrespondingtothedemandsofthenewlabormarkets.xivKEYFINDINGSExecutiveSummaryTheglobaltransitiontocleanenergymustaccelerateifglobalwarmingistobelimitedto1.5°Candtheeffectsofclimatechangemitigated.Fortheenergysector,thetransitioninvolvesreplacingfossilfuelswithcleansourcesofenergyandelectrifyingtraditionallyunelectrifiedareas(suchastransport,heating,andindustrialprocesses)whileworkingtowarduniversalaccesstocleanenergyservices.Disruptivechangesinproductionandconsumptionintheeconomywillresultfromphasingouttraditionalfossil-fuelindustriesandpromotingsustainableenergytechnologies.Policymakerswillneedtounderstand,planfor,andaddressthepositiveandnegativeimpactsofsuchtransitions.Maximizingthenational,sub-national,andlocalsocioeconomicco-benefitsofthesetransitions—particularlytheirjobcreationpotential—willbeincreasinglyimportanttohelpovercomeresistancefromtraditionalinterestgroups,particularly,organizedlabor,thatareconcernedaboutbeingleftbehind.Morepositively,harnessingthepotentialoftheenergytransitionforjobcreationcanfosterbuy-intothemoveawayfromfossilfuelsandincreaselocaldevelopmentimpactsofdecarbonization.Themovecanbefacilitatedbyproactiveinvestmentintheeducationandskillsneededforcleanenergy,oncethepotentialforemploymentcreationisunderstood.Politicaldiscourseoftenprovidesasimplisticviewofreskillingworkersfrom“brown”to“green”jobs,butthegroundrealityismuchmorecomplex.Thisiswhysystematic,datadrivenanalysisofemploymentaspectsoftheenergytransitionissoimportant.Tobringevidencetobearonthisissue,theWorldBank’sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)implementedaprogramofanalyticalworkfrom2020to2023.Entitled“EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition,”itassessedthejobcreationpotentialofthecleanenergytransitioninlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Theprogramstartedwithareviewoftheacademicandpolicyliteraturetoidentifywhatisknownandtoguidetheanalysisgoingforward.Inviewofthelimitedapplicabilityoftheliteraturetotheenergytransitionfordevelopingeconomiesanddataconstraintsthatprecludeanexpostanalysis,acomputablegeneralequilibriummodelwasdevelopedtosimulate,exante,theeconomywideemploymentimpactsofcleanenergyinterventionscharacterizingtheenergytransitioninasampleofstrategicallyimportantSub-SaharanAfricancountries.FocusingonSub-SaharanAfricapermitsstudyingtheimpactofnewpowerproductionbetterthanstudyingotherregions,sincenewpowerproductioninAfricatypicallycomesintothesystemasadditionalpower,whileindevelopedcountriescleanpoweroftensimplydisplacesexistingfossilfuel–basedpower.Whilemodelingcanindicatelikelyhigh-leveloutcomes,itshedslittlelightonthemechanismsbywhichcleanenergyprojectscreatejobs,whichisimportantforpolicydesign.Modelingalsoabstractsfromspatial,temporal,andskillsfrictionsthatariseinreallabormarkets.Therefore,JOBSFORALIVABLEPLANETxvtocomplementthemodelingandunderstandhowcleanenergyinterventionscreatejobsindevelopingcountriesandalsocharacterizethejobscreated,detailedcasestudiesofselectedWorldBank–supportedcleanenergyprojectswerecarriedout,supplementedbydeepdivesintojobscreatedbyproductiveuseofelectricityinminigridsandinsightsonthelabortransitionoptionsforworkersofcoal-firedpowerplants.Thefindings,conclusions,andrecommendationsofthisprogramofanalyticalworkarepresentedinthisreport.SummaryofFindingsThereportfindsthattheacademicandpolicyliteratureonemploymentimpactsoftheenergytransitionhassignificantlimitations.Intheabsenceofdata,expostmethods,whichpermitanevaluationofcausalityandcouldprovideestimatesoftheactualemploymentimpactsofprojects,havescarcelybeenused.Instead,theliteratureisdominatedbyexantemodelingofpotentialemploymentimpacts,withcoverageofdevelopingcountriesparticularlylimitedacrossmodels.Bothexanteandexpostmodelslackcoverageofnewjobsinducedbygreateravailabilityanduseofelectricity.Fourcleanenergyscenarioswereanalyzedusingthecomputablegeneralequilibriummodel.TheanalysisfoundthatinthecontextofSub-SaharanAfricathemosteffectivescenariosforboostingeconomicgrowthandemploymentareimprovementsinelectricitygridreliabilityandrolloutofenergyefficiencyprograms,bothreflectiveofthelowqualityandlimitedavailabilityofpowerinthesecountries.Increaseddeploymentofrenewablesandregionalelectricitytrade(whichexpandsthemarketforrenewablesourcepower)alsohaveapositiveimpactongrossdomesticproductandemploymentoverall,althoughoflessermagnitudeperdollarspent.Allfourcleanenergyinterventionsresultinmoreproductiveandbetter-paidjobs;incombination,asinreal-lifereformprograms,synergieswouldproduceevengreaterimpacts.Overall,themodelingandliteraturereviewbothindicatethatjobsassociatedwiththeincreaseineconomicactivityduetoenergysectorinvestments,so-calledinducedjobs,likelyrepresentamajorityofthejobscreatedbytheenergytransition.Inducedjobsarenotrestrictedtotheenergysectorandcouldultimatelylastlongerthanjobsassociateddirectlywithprojectconstructionoroperationsandmaintenance(O&M).Thecasestudiesshowthattheoverallemploymentbenefitsoftheenergytransitionarenotalwaysobviousattheprojectlevel—sustainableenergyprojectstendtogeneratealargenumberoftemporary,high-qualityjobsduringconstruction(aperiodofafewmonthstoafewyears),butfewerO&Mjobs,whichtypicallylastseveraldecades.TableES.1summarizesthefindingsofthecasestudiesondirectandindirectjobsattributabletotheprojectsreviewed.Inadditiontojobsdirectlyassociatedwiththeproject,sustainableenergyprojectsalsocreateindirectjobsinsupplychainsforthematerialsandequipmentrequiredtodeployrenewableenergy,energyefficiency,andothercleanenergyinterventions.SincethesupplychainsofmajorsustainableenergytechnologiesarecurrentlyconcentratedinaxviEXECUTIVESUMMARYTABLEES.1TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)PROJECTꢀDIRECTINDIRECTTOTALDESIGN,MANAGEMENT,CONSTRUCTIONOPERATIONANDMAINTENANCETOTALDIRECTRampurHydropowerProject(India)18,13132,19115,08451,95333,21584,14418,53051,745MalawiEnergySectorSupportProject168,341252,485KosovoEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyProject326n.a.326122448NigeriaElectrificationProject40151191206397SindhSolarEnergyProject(Pakistan)8171,1371,9541,3683,322SecondRuralElectrificationProject(Peru)5759116154n.a.270RegionalRusumoHydroelectricProject(NileEquatorialLakesRegion)3,854(constructionandO&M)and4,021(LADPactivities)n.a.3,854(constructionandO&M)and4,021(LADPactivities)7,875Note:

LADP=LocalAreaDevelopmentPlan;O&M=operationandmaintenance;n.a.=notavailable.handfulofmiddle-andhigh-incomecountries,intheshortterm,developingcountriesarelikelytohostonlyalimitedportionofthissupplychain,leadingtog