2024年春季行业比较之市场交易特征篇：“宁组合”是否调整充分

证券分析师：林丽梅A0230513090001刘雅婧A0230521080001郝丹阳A0230523120002王胜A0230511060001研究支持：冯彧A02301230800012024.03.1819/0119/0219/0319/0419/0519/0619/0719/0819/0920/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0920/1020/1120/1221/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0921/1021/1121/1222/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1019/0119/0219/0319/0419/0519/0619/0719/0819/0920/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0920/1020/1120/1221/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0921/1021/1121/1222/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0923/1023/1123/1224/0124/0225,00020,00015,00010,0005,000CXO（医疗研发外包）30,00027540.1327540.13F20404.17E15833.2715746.51C11431.66B阶段每波最大涨幅每波最大跌幅每波上涨交易天数每波下跌交易1浪-26%132浪31%-47%211613浪43%-67%293903波下行：30个月（2021年8月-2024年2月）26870.7120502.3324088.7913162.7216696.3314308.7913788.624147.336637.808588.636745.605527.61AD业绩估值共振，贡献幅度差不多杀估值业绩增速中枢下移，仍高增0收盘价最高价/最低价资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注图示点位为阶段性最高点和最低点320/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0921/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0922/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0923/0120/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0921/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0922/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0923/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0924/0124/026,0004,0002,0007642.582272.52AD2932.293260.24BD2932.293260.24B5222.78CC2315.594076.035669.22E4116.72业绩提升F7063.767063.765631.775380.533792.043波下行：31个月（2021年7月-2024年2月）阶段每波最大涨幅每波最大跌幅每波上涨交易天数每波下跌交易天数1浪-26%472浪25%-46%38963浪42%-52%733632561.81业绩增速中枢下移业绩增速中枢下移业绩、估值共振0收盘价最高价/最低价资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注图示点位为阶段性最高点和最低点420/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0921/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0922/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0820/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0921/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0922/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0923/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0924/0124/0240,00035,00030,00025,00020,0005,00034829.4734829.4729178.4423265.79F20950.2918815.46E3波下行：27个月（2021年11月-2024年2月）阶段每波最大涨幅每波最大跌幅每波上涨交易天数每波下跌交易天数1浪-51%992浪69%-36%49763浪24%-57%602534174.00业绩增速中枢下移，仍高增6381.335450.92业绩大幅加速且超预期业绩估值共振，估值提升更明显5516.977072.42C4756.575166.446986.8510392.4014535.9017230.8412688.6010681.81D收盘价最高价/最低价资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注图示点位为阶段性最高点和最低点520/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0921/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0922/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0920/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0921/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0922/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0923/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0924/0124/0218,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000015557.1615557.1612717.7912108.472浪9954.358246.383波下行：30个月（2021年8月-2024年2月）阶段每波最大涨幅每波最大跌幅每波上涨交易天数每波下跌交易天数1浪-36%1082浪28%-35%19333浪83%-68%60357AB3浪15058.0511258.134881.894282.222856.532672.663351.423345.317245.772244.141966.182713.9DCE业绩估值共振估值提升更明显业绩加速且不断上调盈利预测业绩估值共振估值提升更明显业绩加速且不断上调盈利预测主要靠业绩提升收盘价最高价/最低价资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注图示点位为阶段性最高点和最低点6过去热门行业后期回撤最大幅度：下跌70%-80%左右代码名称801125.SI801150.SI医药生物851563.SI医疗研发外包(CXO)801080.SI801081.SI半导体801750.SI计算机801760.SI传媒801770.SI通信801735.SI光伏设备801737.SI最高价日最低价日持续时间2008-01-142008-11-072002008-01-172008-11-041942007-09-112008-11-042792007-05-292008-11-043542007-05-292008-11-043542008-01-212008-11-041922008-01-032008-11-042042008-01-242008-10-281842008-03-042008-11-041662007-05-282008-11-04355涨跌幅-66%-59%-76%-75%-74%-68%-68%-65%-78%-70%PE(TTM）4.82.6822529232.322最高价日最低价日持续时间2012-07-122014-01-103632010-11-252012-01-172812011-06-272012-11-283492010-12-202012-12-044782010-11-252012-11-284912010-11-112012-12-045052010-04-122012-12-046462010-01-142012-12-047022011-03-172012-11-284172011-02-222012-11-28434涨跌幅-59%-40%-51%-53%-57%-50%-50%-61%-70%-54%PE(TTM）82.5272.8282.12.4272.529432.5最高价日最低价日持续时间涨跌幅PE(TTM）2021-02-182024-02-02723-46%232015-06-122016-01-27155-45%4.22015-06-052016-02-01163-50%737.62015-06-122019-01-04871-58%232.12015-06-122019-01-03870-62%2.32015-06-052018-10-16820-70%2.52015-06-052018-10-19823-79%212015-06-152018-10-19817-64%2.02015-06-152015-09-2974-53%682015-06-152015-09-2974-46%4.3最高价日最低价日持续时间2018-05-292019-01-031492018-05-292019-01-041502021-07-272024-02-056162021-07-302024-02-056132020-07-102024-02-058712020-07-142022-10-255542020-07-142022-05-124432017-11-132018-11-302582017-09-122018-11-30297涨跌幅-41%-31%-51%-63%-56%-51%-40%-36%-43%PE(TTM）232.6454.6492.6432.32527262.0282.7最高价日最低价日持续时间2021-02-102024-02-057252021-08-052024-02-066102021-08-302024-02-055922021-11-302024-02-05533涨跌幅-50%-71%-64%-69%PE(TTM）222.22.492.02.2资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注：以上为长周期视角下涨跌幅统计，可能存在一定统计误差7过去各行业后期回撤最大幅度代码行业最高价日最低价日持续时间涨跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI801950.SI801050.SI801960.SI801030.SI钢铁煤炭有色金属石油石化基础化工2007-09-182007-09-242007-10-152007-11-052008-01-102008-11-042008-11-072008-11-042008-11-072008-11-04274273260248-77%-77%-86%-86%-74%-70%69801710.SI建筑材料2008-01-152008-11-04196-76%251.3801170.SI交通运输2008-01-152008-11-07199-71%131.6801720.SI建筑装饰2008-01-072008-10-28197-58%302.1801890.SI机械设备2007-10-172008-11-04258-71%121.9801970.SI环保2007-09-112008-11-04279-73%191.6801160.SI公用事业2007-09-192008-10-28268-63%401.8801730.SI801735.SI801737.SI光伏设备2008-01-152008-03-042007-05-282008-11-042008-11-042008-11-04355-66%-78%-70%801740.SI国防军工2008-01-082008-11-04201-81%191.8801880.SI汽车2007-09-182008-11-04274-78%81.2801110.SI家用电器2008-01-212008-10-28187-68%121.6801010.SI农林牧渔2008-03-042008-11-04166-66%332.2801120.SI801125.SI食品饮料2008-01-152008-01-142008-11-072008-11-07200-67%-66%4.8801150.SI医药生物851563.SI医疗研发外包2008-01-172007-09-112008-11-042008-11-04279-59%-76%801200.SI商贸零售2008-01-152008-11-04196-69%152.0801210.SI社会服务2007-09-182008-11-07277-79%311.6801130.SI纺织服饰2007-05-292008-11-04354-73%131.4801140.SI轻工制造2008-01-152008-11-04196-75%141.1801980.SI美容护理2008-01-162008-11-10199-69%301.7801080.SI801081.SI半导体2007-05-292007-05-292008-11-042008-11-04354354-75%-74%801750.SI计算机2008-01-212008-11-04192-68%231.9801760.SI传媒2008-01-032008-11-04204-68%322.3801770.SI通信2008-01-242008-10-28184-65%181.7801180.SI房地产2007-11-012008-11-07250-75%211.6801780.SI银行2007-11-012008-10-28242-69%71.7801790.SI非银金融2007-11-022008-11-04246-76%132.3资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注：以上为长周期视角下涨跌幅统计，可能存在一定统计误差8过去各行业后期回撤最大幅度（续）代码行业最高价日最低价日持续时间涨跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI钢铁2009-08-042013-06-25941-68%200.7801950.SI煤炭2009-07-242014-03-111,120-73%91.0801050.SI有色金属2010-11-022014-01-20782-62%372.2801960.SI石油石化2009-08-042013-06-25941-53%191.9801030.SI基础化工2010-01-042013-06-25839-48%262.0801710.SI建筑材料2011-04-082013-06-25536-54%231.6801170.SI交通运输2009-08-052013-06-25940-55%121.1801720.SI建筑装饰2011-02-152014-03-11744-42%101.2801890.SI机械设备2011-03-092012-12-04427-54%131.7801970.SI环保2010-04-132012-12-04645-42%272.3801160.SI公用事业2009-08-052012-12-04811-43%191.7801730.SI801735.SI801737.SI光伏设备2010-11-112011-03-172011-02-222012-12-042012-11-282012-11-28417434-63%-70%-54%43801740.SI国防军工2010-11-052012-12-04509-56%321.9801880.SI汽车2010-11-092012-09-27464-55%121.6801110.SI801010.SI801120.SI801125.SI家用电器农林牧渔食品饮料2011-03-282010-11-102010-11-292012-07-122012-08-302012-12-042014-06-202014-01-10351863363-37%-52%-32%-32%-59%8801150.SI医药生物851563.SI医疗研发外包2010-11-252011-06-272012-01-172012-11-28281349-40%-51%801200.SI商贸零售2010-11-112013-06-25634-56%171.7801210.SI社会服务2010-11-112012-01-06284-36%353.0801130.SI纺织服饰2010-11-112013-06-25634-47%191.6801140.SI轻工制造2010-11-112012-12-04505-50%361.5801980.SI美容护理2010-11-102012-01-19294-34%343.1801080.SI801081.SI半导体2010-12-202010-11-252012-12-042012-11-28478491-53%-57%801750.SI计算机2010-11-112012-12-04505-50%322.4801760.SI传媒2010-04-122012-12-04646-50%272.5801770.SI通信2010-01-142012-12-04702-61%291.3801180.SI房地产2009-07-242013-06-25948-47%111.6801780.SI银行2009-07-312012-09-26770-40%51.0801790.SI非银金融2009-07-292013-06-25945-53%231.6资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注：以上为长周期视角下涨跌幅统计，可能存在一定统计误差9过去各行业后期回撤最大幅度（续）代码行业最高价日最低价日持续时间涨跌幅PE(TTM）801040.SI钢铁2015-06-152016-02-01-59%801950.SI煤炭2015-06-092016-02-15-53%801050.SI有色金属2015-06-122016-01-29-54%801960.SI石油石化2015-06-152016-01-27-51%801030.SI基础化工2015-06-152016-01-27-48%42801710.SI建筑材料2015-06-152016-01-29-50%801170.SI交通运输2015-06-152016-03-01-52%801720.SI建筑装饰2015-06-082016-02-29-56%801890.SI机械设备2015-06-032016-03-01-55%801970.SI环保2015-06-122016-01-29-48%43801160.SI公用事业2015-06-152016-02-29-51%801730.SI2015-06-122016-03-01-52%41801735.SI光伏设备2015-06-152015-09-29-53%801737.SI2015-06-152015-09-29-46%4.3801740.SI2015-05-272018-10-19830-72%801880.SI汽车2015-06-152018-10-19817-58%801110.SI家用电器2015-07-142015-09-1544-32%801010.SI农林牧渔2015-06-122018-10-19818-57%801120.SI食品饮料2015-06-152016-01-27-40%801125.SI2021-02-182024-02-02723-46%801150.SI2015-06-122016-01-27-45%4.2851563.SI2015-06-052016-02-01-50%801200.SI商贸零售2015-06-122020-02-031,129-69%801210.SI社会服务2015-06-122015-09-02-44%4.1801130.SI纺织服饰2015-06-152015-09-15-48%801140.SI轻工制造2015-06-122016-01-29-47%801980.SI美容护理2015-06-152015-08-26-46%801080.SI2015-06-122019-01-04871-58%801081.SI半导体2015-06-122019-01-03870-62%801750.SI计算机2015-06-052018-10-16820-70%801760.SI传媒2015-06-052018-10-19823-79%801770.SI通信2015-06-152018-10-19817-64%801180.SI房地产2019-04-192024-02-051,168-61%801780.SI银行801790.SI非银金融2020-12-302022-10-31443-41%资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注：以上为长周期视角下涨跌幅统计，可能存在一定统计误差10过去各行业后期回撤最大幅度（续）代码行业最高价日最低价日持续时间涨跌幅PE(TTM）801040.SI钢铁2017-09-042020-02-04585-47%80.8801950.SI煤炭2017-09-122020-04-28638-46%70.9801050.SI有色金属2017-09-122018-10-19267-50%21801960.SI石油石化2018-01-252020-05-25563-40%801030.SI基础化工2017-09-122019-01-04320-36%801710.SI建筑材料2017-04-122019-01-04426-37%801170.SI交通运输2017-04-132018-10-19372-34%801720.SI建筑装饰2017-04-112020-02-04686-50%80.9801890.SI机械设备2016-11-232018-10-19465-49%24801970.SI环保2017-04-132024-02-061,662-68%801160.SI公用事业2017-04-142020-02-04683-45%801730.SI电力设备2016-11-232018-10-19465-48%21801735.SI光伏设备2017-11-132018-11-30258-36%26801737.SI2017-09-122018-11-30297-43%28801740.SI国防军工801880.SI汽车801110.SI家用电器2018-01-262018-10-30182-39%801010.SI农林牧渔2022-01-052024-02-05508-39%43801120.SI801125.SI食品饮料2021-02-182024-02-05724-47%234.8801150.SI2018-05-292019-01-03149-41%23851563.SI医疗研发外包2018-05-292019-01-04150-31%454.6801200.SI商贸零售2020-07-132024-02-05870-65%23801210.SI社会服务2021-02-182024-02-05724-59%801130.SI纺织服饰2016-11-242024-02-051,753-65%801140.SI轻工制造2016-11-282018-10-19462-50%801980.SI美容护理2021-07-012024-02-05634-61%25801080.SI2021-07-272024-02-05616-51%801081.SI半导体2021-07-302024-02-05613-63%49801750.SI计算机2020-07-102024-02-05871-56%43801760.SI传媒2020-07-142022-10-25554-51%25801770.SI通信2020-07-142022-05-12443-40%27801180.SI房地产801780.SI银行801790.SI非银金融资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注：以上为长周期视角下涨跌幅统计，可能存在一定统计误差11过去各行业后期回撤最大幅度（续）代码行业最高价日最低价日持续时间涨跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI钢铁2021-09-092024-02-05584-53%190.8801950.SI煤炭2022-06-152023-08-22292-30%61.1801050.SI有色金属2021-09-132024-02-05582-50%131.7801960.SI石油石化2021-09-162024-01-23570-32%141.1801030.SI基础化工2021-09-162024-02-05579-54%171.4801710.SI建筑材料2021-09-102024-02-05583-54%151.0801170.SI交通运输801720.SI建筑装饰801890.SI机械设备801970.SI环保801160.SI公用事业801730.SI801735.SI801737.SI电力设备光伏设备2021-11-232021-08-302021-11-302024-02-052024-02-052024-02-05538592533-61%-64%-69%9801740.SI国防军工801880.SI汽车801110.SI家用电器2021-01-132022-10-31434-48%122.1801010.SI农林牧渔801120.SI801125.SI食品饮料801150.SI医药生物851563.SI医疗研发外包2021-02-102021-08-052024-02-052024-02-06725610-50%-71%22801200.SI商贸零售801210.SI社会服务801130.SI纺织服饰801140.SI轻工制造2022-01-072024-02-05506-43%221.4801980.SI美容护理801080.SI801081.SI半导体801750.SI计算机801760.SI传媒801770.SI通信801180.SI房地产801780.SI银行801790.SI非银金融资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究；备注：以上为长周期视角下涨跌幅统计，可能存在一定统计误差12资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究132.502.001.501.000.500.00《2.502.001.501.000.500.00如2014年1月10日白酒行业绝对股价见底开始拐头向上（经历了为期1年半，幅度为59%的下跌但是公募基金对白酒的配置却没有结束下行趋势，而是继续下行到2015Q1。公募基金配置系数从2012Q1的—配置系数（右轴）—电子—配置系数（右轴）4.504.004.504.0014,0003.5012,0003.0010,0002.508,0002.006,0001.504,0001.000.500.000.500.0005,2004,7004,2003,7003,2002,7002,2001,7001,200700 机构并非一定随着行业绝对股价触底而同步加仓2018年年底到2019年年初股价见底的电子、计算机、通信、传媒，除通信外，其余三者在股价触底反弹仓通道。电子配置系数（右轴）14%6,40014%12%5,40010%4,4008%3,4006%2,4004%2%1,4002%0%4000%通信配置系数（右轴）1.403,5001.401.203,0001.002,5000.802,0000.601,5000.400.201,0000.200.005000.00计算机配置系数（右轴）2.508,0002.507,0002.006,0001.505,0004,0001.003,0000.502,0000.001,0000.00传媒配置系数（右轴）2.501,0002.509002.008001.507006001.005000.504000.003000.00资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究14-- 机构的配置不仅取决于行业绝对收益，更重要的是相对收益--历史经验上，具备一定成长性的行业在绝对股价调整到位之后，虽有绝对收益但后续1-2年并无明显超底见底的电子、计算机、传媒、通信后续1年的绝对涨幅是42%、43%、74%、21%、48%、20%；相对上证指数的涨幅是-10%、50%、51%、-1%、26%、-2%；相对创业板指数的涨幅是30%、-40%、30%、-23%、4%、-24%。（备注：由于白酒在2014年初见底，故取见底当年2014年进行统计；电子第二轮见底为2019年初，故取见底当年即2019年进行统计；另外除电子外，其余行业相对市场并无明显超额收益）。白酒电子电子传媒计算机通信见底时间（T）下一年(或当年)绝对涨跌幅%2014年1月2014/12/31422012年12月2013/12/31432019年初2019/12/31742018年底2019/12/31212018年底2019/12/31482018年底2019/12/3120相对上证涨跌幅%相对创业板指涨跌幅%相对创业板指涨跌幅%26 4-2440基金持仓（见底时）基金持仓（T年末或T+1下半年中）1.4%1.2%2.3%5.1%6.0%5.3%2.6%1.8%7.8%6.6%2.0%1.5%配置系数（见底时）配置系数（T年末或T+1下半年中）0.850.771.362.061.801.501.380.901.921.470.830.83资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究15资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究16 机构的配置不仅取决于行业绝对收益，更重要的是相对收益机构的加减仓行为与行业绝对走势并非完全一致，更多取决于当时行业的市场相对强弱，资金总是会向更新的主题、更强劲的进攻方向进行加仓。公募基金加仓行为并非随一定随着行业调整结束，随行业反弹而加仓，而是有可能会延续惯性继续减仓。绝对涨幅相对上证涨幅相对创业板指涨幅归母净利润增速持仓占比配置系数2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/3142%10%13%%%-16%1.2%1.3%3.1%0.770.87 %-6228%41%%%9.2%93%87%%45%2.52绝对涨幅相对上证涨幅相对创业板指涨幅归母净利润增速持仓占比配置系数2013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/3143%50%-40% 57%5.1%2.0619%-34%6%-12%15%0.9911%7%2.1%6.0%6.0%8.5%8.5%72%63%1.82-13%0%26%2.537%% 机构的配置不仅取决于行业绝对收益，更重要的是相对收益7%%绝对涨幅相对上证涨幅相对创业板指涨幅归母净利润增速持仓占比配置系数2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/3174%51%19%46%46%101%101%-27%-33% 8.0%10.5%9.6%9.6%13.2%13.2%13.4%13.4%2.121.531.531.761.761.701.7022%-21%4%-7%36%16%-37%传媒绝对涨幅相对上证涨幅相对创业板指涨幅归母净利润增速持仓占比配置系数2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/3121%8%0%-26%-26%17%--8% 2.1%8%1.150%3.6%8% 2.1%8%1.150%3.6%1.62 0.86%0.450.44%%0.450.44%0.8%%-0%36%计算机绝对涨幅相对上证涨幅相对创业板指涨幅归母净利润增速持仓占比配置系数2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/3148%26%4%11%4%-42%-42%8.4%1.89 -25% 9%5.3% 5.3% 4.9% 5.0%5.7%5.7%-55%-11%4%28%通信绝对涨幅相对上证涨幅相对创业板指涨幅归母净利润增速持仓占比配置系数2026-162019/12/312026-162020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/31%%--0.83% 0.640.701.421.4%0.83% 0.640.701.421.4%%%0.41%%0.411.0%2.7%2.7%%%3%3%%3---9%45%7资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究17“宁组合”主要行业23Q4机构持仓情况医疗研发外包半导体电池光伏设备配置系数持仓占比配置系数持仓占比配置系数持仓占比配置系数持仓占比3.792.4%2.417.8%2.175.0%1.843.4%医疗研发外包（CXO）9.009.008.007.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.007.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%0.00%持仓占比配置系数（右轴）持仓占比3.503.503.002.502.001.501.000.500.008.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%持仓占比配置系数（右轴）半导体9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%3.002.502.001.501.000.500.00持仓占比配置系数（右轴）光伏设备4.504.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.500.009.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%持仓占比配置系数（右轴）资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究18《行业基本面超预期下行；由于本文涨跌幅均以长周期视角进行统计，因此可能会存在一定统计误差。信息披