商贸零售行业专题研究报告：美妆偏淡、把握龙头新锐品牌成长黄金珠宝稳健、关注金价

内容目录1、妆淡偏、分化剧把集化头&锐牌长遇 4淡需走、品类零速缓 4板总：季和利增放缓 4子块品商加剧原商头续丽增，产/运业绩续压 6、牌：化，毛率续化普加码销入累利现 6、料：头Q3淡季淡成性步显 8、产：绩承压关订回下能爬带的利复 9、运商增压，找品/品牌拓平机会 92、金宝业稳长，金品续领 10高数下Q3银宝类零速低黄产品增动主导 10黄产景延渠道张比速稳健 10、盈性：金价上行+产品及渠道结构影毛率表现，收入增摊薄用、盈利能力同升 、道：Q3店比提或健全目望顺达成 133、资议 144、险示 14化品 14黄珠宝 14附录化品块股本 15图表目录图表1：Q334图表2：Q3猫+宝音美类销额比-19/+73、幅比大续高增4图表3：3Q23品商/料商生商块收+8/-225图表4：3Q23品商/料商块母利同-9........................................5图表5：Q31042.45图表6：3Q239.99+25图表7：3Q23+5.36PCT6图表8：3Q2310.730.17PCT6图表9：3Q23+4.34PCT...............................................610：3Q23化妆品板块销售费用率同比+4PCT、主要系品牌商营销投入普遍加码（单位：PCT）.......611：3Q23品商收同比+8.5增环缓.............................................712：3Q239.2713：3Q2311.83.4PCT714：3Q23品牌商盈利能力同比下降........................................................715：3Q23品牌商毛利率持续优化..........................................................7图表16：，3Q23+5.4PCT..............................7图表17：3Q232.2PCT8图表18：3Q233.6PCT8图表19：3Q231.9PCT8图表20：3Q238图表21：3Q2313.28图表22：3Q23668图表23：3Q23+7.9PCT9图表24：3Q234.9PCT.............................9图表25：3Q239图表26：3Q239图表27：3Q23+6.3PCT.........................................9图表28：3Q23-2.8PCT...............................9图表29：9图表30：3Q239图表31：3Q23+3.3PCT.......................................9图表32：3Q23+0.9PCT9图表33：以绝对值推算、Q3限额以上金银珠宝类零售额同比持平.................................10图表34：1-9M23金银珠宝类社零增速领跑其他可选品类.........................................10图表35：Q3金饰条和币费同-8.8/-4.1.......................................10图表36：Q3（Au9999）+19.610图表37：黄金珠宝板块个股样本..............................................................11图表38：1-3Q23+18.712.211图表39：Q356410.22110.311图表40：Q315.93.5+30.111图表41：黄金珠宝板块1-3Q23业绩增速靓丽...................................................11图表42：1-3Q23黄金珠宝板块毛利率同比+1.1PCT..............................................12图表43：1-3Q23黄金珠宝板块归母净利率同比+0.5PCT..........................................12图表44：3Q23黄金珠宝板块毛利率同比提振、盈利能力提升.....................................12图表45：收入增长摊薄费用、3Q23黄金珠宝板块销售/管理费用率同比下降........................12图表46：3Q23黄金珠宝板块销售费用率同比-0.29PCT...........................................13图表47：1-3Q23黄金珠宝板块管理费用率同比-0.3PCT..........................................13图表48：Q3开店环比提速或稳健.............................................................13图表49：化妆品板块个股样本................................................................151H/1-3Q23化品零额同+8.6/+6.8，计绝值算单Q3比+3、...图表1：化妆品类社零增速放缓，从累计绝对值推算、单Q3同比+3...类别2023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09环比变化2年CAGR总体社会消费品零售总额3.5%10.6%18.4%12.7%3.1%2.5%4.6%5.5%0.90%4.0%限额以上企业消费品零售总额2.1%10.1%19.0%12.5%2.3%0.3%3.1%5.2%2.10%5.6%必需粮油、食品类9.0%4.4%1.0%-0.7%5.4%5.5%4.5%8.3%3.80%8.4%饮料类5.2%-5.1%-3.4%-0.7%3.6%3.1%0.8%8.0%7.20%6.4%烟酒类6.1%9.0%14.9%8.6%9.6%7.2%4.3%23.1%18.80%6.0%中西药类19.3%11.7%3.7%7.1%6.6%3.7%3.7%4.5%0.80%6.9%可选化妆品类3.8%9.6%24.3%11.7%4.8%-4.1%9.7%1.6%-8.10%-0.8%金银珠宝类5.9%37.4%44.7%244%7.8%-10.0%7.2%7.7%0.50%4.8%服装鞋帽针纺织品类5.4%17.7%32.4%17.6%6.9%2.3%4.5%9.9%5.40%4.6%耐用家用电器和音像器材类-1.9%-1.4%4.7%0.1%4.5%-5.5%-2.9%-2.3%0.60%-4.2%家具类5.2%3.5%3.4%5.0%1.2%0.1%4.8%0.5%-4.30%-3.5%通讯器材类-8.2%1.8%14.6%274%6.6%3.0%8.5%0.4%-8.10%3.1%汽车类-9.4%11.5%38.0%242%-1.1%-1.5%1.1%2.8%1.70%8.4%来源：国家统计局天猫+淘宝受“618”大促虹吸效应影响，Q3美妆品类销售额同比-19、降幅环比扩大；品牌商力叠平期趣电转率对高，Q3抖音妆肤目额同增70、71。图表2：Q3天猫+淘宝/抖音美妆类目销售额同比-19/+73、降幅环比扩大/延续高增图表2：Q3天猫+淘宝/抖音美妆类目销售额同比-19/+73、降幅环比扩大/延续高增700600500400300200100

淘系（亿元） 抖音（亿元） 淘系yoy（右轴）抖音yoy（右轴） 合计yoy（右轴）

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%0 -60%来源：魔镜数据，萝卜投资，Q3104/9.972.4/+107.4，/+2。图表3：3Q23品牌商/原料商/生产商板块营收同比

图表4：3Q23品牌商/原料商板块归母净利润同比-+8/+13+8/+139

代运营 品牌商 原料商 生产商 板块总体2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q232020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23

代运营 品牌商 原料商 板块总体（未含松份）2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q232020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23来源：， 来源：，图表5：Q3104同比+2.4

图表6：3Q239.99（青松股份、同比+20

化妆品板块营（元） yoy（右轴）2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23

20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

0

化妆品板块净利（百万元）yoy（右轴）yoy剔除青松（右轴）2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%来源：， 来源：，毛利端：3Q23化妆品板块毛利率同比+5.36PCT、持续优化。分板块看，美妆品牌商/代运营商/生产商/原料商毛利率同比+5.4/+3.3/+6.3/+7.9PCT。1）美妆品牌商：产品升级&结构改善、聚焦大单品策略，毛利率同比提升；2）代运营商/生产商：毛利率低基数下修复；3）原料商：防晒剂新老品价格锁定高位、高毛利新品占比提升，全球防晒剂龙头科思股份毛利率同比显著提升。费用端：3Q23化妆品板块期间费用率同比+4.34PCT，其中销售费用率同比+4PCT，主要系品牌商销售费用率同比+3.6PCT、营销投入普遍加码。净利端：3Q2310.15.2PCT归母净利率10.73、同比-0.17PCT，其中美妆品牌商同比-3.4PCT6.8PCT。化妆品板块毛利率毛利率变动（PCT化妆品板块毛利率毛利率变动（PCT，右）

图表83Q2310.730.17PCT55%55%53%6.05.04.03.02.01.00.0(1.0)(2.0)15%化妆品板块净利率净利率变动（PCT，右）剔除青松净利率变动（PCT、右）6.054%4.010%52%2.051%0.050%5%(2.0)49%48%0%(4.0)2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23来源：， 来源：，图表9：3Q23化妆品板块期间费率同比+4.34PCT 图表10：3Q23化妆品板块销售费率同比+4PCT、主要系品牌商营销投入普遍加码（单位：PCT）5%0%

2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23

5.0化妆品板块费用率费用率变动（化妆品板块费用率费用率变动（PCT，右）3.02.01.00.0(1.0)(2.0)(3.0)

5.04.03.02.01.00.0

管理费用率变动 销售费用率变动 研发费用率变动2020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q32020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3来源：， 来源：，、子板块：品牌商分化加剧，原料商龙头延续靓丽增长，生产商/代运营商业绩继续承压3Q23+8.5-9.2分化持续加深，龙头珀莱雅增长稳健（收入&利润均同增20+，优化产品及渠道+聚焦组织效率提升、贝泰妮/福瑞达/丸美股份营收增长环比提速，持续加码营销推广、上海家化增，莱营/母润Q3同比2124白特霜新推持续探Q3（+40。Q3逆势靓丽增长、营收同比+31.6；恋火势能持续释放+主品牌丸美直播渠道亮眼，丸美股Q346.1，利润率延续Q2&水羊股份Q3营收同比-5，受汇率波动、转债利息支付等拖累、归母净利润同比+4.03。2020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q232020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-7%9%-7%0%-24%1%-3%-6%3%-11%珀莱雅20%23%38%39%35%22%50%29%46%21%丸美股份-3%2%-3%-5%-7%24%-9%25%34%46%水羊股份54%35%-6%28%-11%-4%-19%0%8%-5%贝泰妮36%53%25%59%37%21%11%7%21%26%敷尔佳18%4%7%2%---4%5%7%-5%巨子生物25%30%53%----63%-华熙生物112%147%39%77%17%-8%-福瑞达120%117%32%95%45%12%7%13%7%32%品牌商18%31%15%20%11%18%13%7.1%18.3%8.5%2020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-23%51%-27%18%亏损16%-31%16%269%-40%珀莱雅21%21%42%44%19%44%52%31%110%24%丸美股份-10%-47%-30%-35%-42%扭亏为盈-49%20%1%1367%水羊股份415%69%-47%36%-29%-37%-94%25%119%4%贝泰妮32%59%22%86%34%35%5%8%17%6%敷尔佳-2%24%5%-7%---10%-1%-1%-37%巨子生物50%0%21%----53%品牌商13%19.2%6.7%16.8%12%115.9%-6.0%14.8%56.1%-9.2%来源：，（注：1）福瑞达/华熙生物仅包含化妆品业务；2）1Q22-2Q23品牌商营收增速未包含华熙生物化妆品业务、巨子生物）

来源：，聚焦大单品+产品结构优化，毛利率持续提升、3Q23同比+5.4PCT。1）头部公司：大单促销活动，珀莱雅Q30.67PCT、贝泰妮Q3+2.2PCT78.732）Q3毛利率同比+7.55PCT72.4Q360.32+4.7PCT0.71PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化8.5%6.6%9.4%202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化8.5%6.6%9.4%-2.6%9.5%9.1%11.6%4.3%6.4%珀莱雅12.4%12.8%12.6%10.1%14.8%13.3%12.8%14.5%15.2%丸美股份13.9%10.1%17.1%11.9%0.9%9.2%16.5%8.9%9.0%水羊股份4.7%2.6%4.0%3.6%3.2%0.4%5.0%7.3%3.5%贝泰妮21.5%21.0%18.1%20.1%14.5%25.2%18.3%19.4%12.1%敷尔佳48.8%47.9%45.7%42.3%58.5%-42.7%39.2%38.8%巨子生物53.2%42.2%44.4%40.9%41.5%-品牌商净利率16.0%15.4%13.0%10.1%15.2%13.0%13.9%13.2%11.8%20221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.8%1.4%-8.2%1.2%-3.5%2.2%6.9%-3.1%珀莱雅0.4%0.5%-1.4%2.2%0.2%0.2%4.4%0.4%丸美股份-3.8%-7.7%-7.1%18.8%-7.1%-0.6%-2.9%8.1%水羊股份-2.1%0.2%-0.9%-1.7%-4.9%1.0%3.7%0.3%贝泰妮-0.5%2.6%-0.5%1.6%-1.4%0.3%-0.7%-2.3%敷尔佳-1.0%-4.2%--2.9%-3.1%-19.7%巨子生物-11.1%--2.9%-品牌商-0.6%2.7%0.3%7.6%-1.9%1.0%3.1%-3.4%来源：， 来源：，图表15：3Q23品牌商毛利率持续化 图表16：产品结构改善+聚焦大，3Q23品牌商毛利202120221Q22202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化59%57%63%56%54%54%61%59%58%珀莱雅66%70%68%69%72%70%70%71%73%丸美股份64%68%67%71%65%69%69%71%72%水羊股份52%53%54%56%56%48%54%60%60%贝泰妮76%75%78%76%77%73%76%75%79%敷尔佳82%83%83%83%82%-83%83%82%巨子生物87%84%85%84%84%-品牌商毛利66%68%66%66%63%64%66%68%69%20221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.6%-2.1%-7.5%-4.7%8.1%-1.5%2.8%3.5%珀莱雅3.2%3.2%5.5%5.9%0.2%2.5%2.3%0.7%丸美股份4.4%2.8%7.2%7.6%2.5%2.0%-0.1%7.5%水羊股份1.1%2.3%1.8%-2.0%1.2%-0.6%4.0%4.7%贝泰妮-0.8%-0.3%-0.4%0.2%-2.0%-1.7%-1.3%2.2%敷尔佳1.1%-----0.7%-0.3%-0.4%巨子生物-2.9%-----1.0%-品牌商1.6%3.6%6.6%5.1%7.2%0.3%2.2%5.4%来源：， 来源：，1）公司：珀莱雅Q3销售费用率同比-1.1/-0.3PCT；2）//Q3销售费用率同比+11.7/+7.4/+5.7/+4.9PCT。图表17：3Q23品牌商期间费用率比+2.2PCT 图表18：3Q23品牌商销售费用率比+3.6PCT、营销投20221Q222Q2220221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-2.9%-6.0%-1.5%-8.2%5.8%-0.5%1.0%12.6%珀莱雅0.5%-0.2%-0.9%5.2%-1.1%2.0%1.0%-3.2%丸美股份9.7%12.1%11.8%-10.2%14.0%2.3%1.8%2.2%水羊股份3.4%2.1%2.4%-1.1%7.8%-0.7%-2.8%3.6%贝泰妮2.0%0.8%2.0%0.9%1.7%-0.5%2.9%1.3%敷尔佳6.0%----4.9%3.2%6.2%品牌商1.5%0.2%-1.4%-1.8%4.6%0.6%0.9%2.2%20221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.2%-3.6%-2.9%-6.3%10.8%0.9%-0.9%11.7%珀莱雅0.6%0.7%0.3%2.1%-0.2%0.9%1.2%-1.1%丸美股份7.4%8.4%7.9%-10.4%13.3%5.0%3.4%5.7%水羊股份2.5%3.1%2.0%-0.1%4.4%-2.1%-3.0%4.9%贝泰妮-0.9%2.1%-0.9%-0.5%-3.3%-0.4%1.9%-0.3%敷尔佳6.0%----3.5%2.3%7.4%巨子生物7.5%----7.8%-品牌商1.4%1.3%-2.0%-1.9%4.1%0.7%0.4%3.6%来源：， 来源：，图表19：3Q23品牌商管理费用率同比-1.9PCT、持续推进组织运营效率提升

图表20：3Q23品牌商研发费用率同比持平20221Q222Q223Q2220221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.5%-1.7%1.3%-2.0%-4.6%-0.6%0.3%-0.4%珀莱雅0.0%-0.6%-1.8%3.6%-0.6%0.7%0.3%-2.3%丸美股份0.8%1.2%1.7%-1.8%0.7%-2.1%-1.7%-3.0%水羊股份0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.7%1.3%-0.2%1.1%-3.3%贝泰妮0.7%-0.4%0.8%0.0%1.3%0.1%0.1%0.2%敷尔佳0.2%0.9%---3.1%2.0%4.3%巨子生物0.0%-----2.2%-品牌商-0.3%-0.9%-0.1%-0.1%-0.6%-0.2%0.3%-1.9%20221Q213Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化0.1%2.0%0.7%0.0%0.2%0.6%0.1%珀莱雅0.4%2.0%0.6%-0.1%0.8%-0.3%-0.3%丸美股份0.2%2.9%-1.3%0.8%-0.6%0.0%-0.7%水羊股份0.6%2.1%1.1%0.2%0.6%-0.4%-0.8%贝泰妮2.3%4.5%1.8%3.7%0.1%0.9%1.6%敷尔佳0.6%--0.2%0.3%1.0%巨子生物0.3%--0.2%-品牌商0.7%2.2%0.9%1.0%0.4%0.2%0.0%来源：， 来源：，Q3科思股份：防晒剂淡季出货仍旺盛，盈利能力持续优化。传统防晒剂市场地位稳固、价3Q23毛利率50.1同比+10.93PCT、环比继续+0.43PCT；归母净利率31.79、同比+6.76PCT、环比继续润同+36/+73。Q3晒剂老再产战Q4旺季个24图表21：原料商3Q23营收同增13.2 图表22：科思股份表现亮眼动料商3Q23归母净利润同增66同增66202120221Q22202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23科思股份8.1%61.8%59.6%63.0%82.5%48.7%42.3%47.9%36.3%丽臣实业15.9%10.8%10.1%9.1%12.2%11.2%11.8%16.4%1.6%原料商13.6%25.3%25.3%24.5%28.8%22.7%23.8%28.2%13.2%202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23科思股份-18.7%192.1%21.0%131%325%535%176%114%73%丽臣实业-19.6%-32.9%-49.3%-42.4%-21.1%-14.7%27.5%57.2%36.2%原料商-19.2%63.0%-18.1%48.1%126.1%149.1%125.1%104%66%来源：， 来源：，图表23：原料商毛利率持续化、3Q23同比+7.9PCT 图表24：原料商盈利能力持优、3Q23板块归母净利率同比+4.9PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23科思股份丽臣实业原料商2021-4.0%-2.9%-3.3%20229.8%-2.6%2.4%1Q22-4.5%-5.5%-4.4%2Q226.4%-2.7%1.6%3Q2214.3%-1.3%4.5%4Q2219.9%-1.5%6.4%1Q2313.2%0.7%6.8%2Q239.8%1.0%5.9%3Q236.8%1.1%4.9%科思股份-6.2%9.9%-7.0%2.1%15.4%24.7%22.8%15.6%10.9%丽臣实业-3.4%-4.1%-8.0%-5.9%-2.0%-1.8%-0.1%0.4%2.6%原料商-4.4%1.9%-6.6%-1.5%4.9%8.4%11.0%8.3%7.9%来源：， 来源：，嘉亨家化：Q3收入/6.4/-42.5产期、产能利用率较低。静待订单回暖下湖州新产能爬坡、一体化服务优势凸显，规模图表25：生产商3Q23营收增长承压 图表26：青松股份大幅减亏生商3Q23业绩延续承压202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23青松股份-4.4%-21.0%-19.7%-30.9%-3.7%-24.6%-42.2%-27.7%-28.8%青松股份-297.8%18.6%-167.2%-208.7%-704.4%亏损收窄亏损收窄亏损收窄大幅减亏嘉亨家化19.9%-9.4%0.6%-21.3%-4.6%-12.4%-14.8%10.7%-6.4%嘉亨家化4.0%-28.3%-19.5%-40.3%-20.2%-34.7%-67.5%-16.4%-42.5%生产商-24.1%-3.0%-15.1%-29.0%-4.0%-21.7%-34.9%-19.2%-22.2%生产商-247.0%17.4%-139.7%-182.6%-1273%93.6%4.5%93.8%102.2%来源：， 来源：，图表27：生产商毛利率低基数下修复、3Q23同比+6.3PCT

图表28：3Q23青松股份大幅减亏、嘉亨家化归母净利率同比-2.8PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23青松股份-12.7%-7.3%-19.0%-14.7%0.2%4.5%-2.8%6.8%7.6%青松股份-48.3%6.7%-19.6%-21.8%-60.4%89.2%-3.2%10.8%68.2%嘉亨家化-1.5%0.2%-1.0%1.6%-0.8%1.0%0.6%0.7%0.8%嘉亨家化-1.3%-1.7%-1.7%-1.5%-1.4%-2.5%-4.1%-1.1%-2.8%生产商-9.2%-5.3%-14.2%-11.1%-0.1%4.2%-0.2%6.5%6.3%生产商-33.7%3.3%-14.8%-17.4%-43.1%67.5%-2.2%8.6%47.6%来源：， 来源：，/增品牌拓平台机会受天猫流量趋于饱和、成长红利减弱，线上流量成本上升、竞争加剧，业务结构调整，新渠道/新品类贡献增量有限，21年开始代运营板块营收与净利增长承压。21年/22年/1-3Q23运板营同比-6.5同-1/-92/-16.9。图表29：代运营商营收增长压 图表30：代运营商3Q23归母净利多数承压2020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q232020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23壹网壹创-10%-13%36%20%39%58%29%5%-10%-26%壹网壹创42%5%-45%-2%-28%-46%-73%-18%-16%-36%丽人丽妆19%-10%-22%-5%-23%-16%-31%-14%-2%-9%丽人丽妆19%21%-134%-71%-104%-180%-167%-291%减亏若羽臣18%13%-6%6%-24%-2%-1%-1%23%-16%若羽臣3%-67%16%-81%-73%19%198%95%181%42%凯淳股份15%-6%-8%-17%-19%8%-4%-2%5%-26%凯淳股份27%-43%-112%-165%-127%-187%50%114%亏损扩大代运营12.3%-6.5%-8.7%-0.8%-14.4%3.3%-14.8%-6.6%0.9%-17.2%代运营25%-1%-92%-55%-83%-100%-114%-55%9%8632%来源：， 来源：，图表31：代运营商毛利率低基数下修复、3Q23同比+3.3PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23壹网壹创-0.2%-14.0%-4.4%-13.5%-18.4%-16.0%-9.8%-5.4%-2.0%丽人丽妆0.6%-9.4%-7.3%-15.0%-20.5%-3.4%-0.3%3.9%4.8%若羽臣-3.0%2.0%-0.6%-5.0%-6.3%15.3%6.3%12.1%10.5%凯淳股份-0.7%2.4%-1.0%0.1%0.5%7.6%-1.5%-10.8%-2.6%代运营-0.5%-6.3%-4.5%-10.7%-14.2%-0.4%-1.0%2.0%3.3%来源：，

图表32：代运营商3Q23归母净利率同比+0.9PCT20212022202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23壹网壹创4.9%-17.1%-4.4%-13.3%-20.8%-24.0%-4.2%-1.1%-1.6%丽人丽妆2.5%-14.2%-4.1%-15.4%-17.0%-17.8%-5.7%0.8%2.6%若羽臣-5.5%0.5%-5.7%-4.2%0.5%8.5%1.2%2.9%1.9%凯淳股份-3.7%-6.6%-14.6%-12.6%-6.0%1.8%7.4%-2.1%2.8%代运营0.6%-10.0%-5.0%-11.6%-10.8%-11.2%-2.2%0.2%0.9%来源：，Q3据国家统计局，23年H1/1-3Q+17.5/+12.2，Q37（-108销反馈良好，情侣和年轻人成为消费主力，国潮类、IP类、古法金等设计感/时尚感强的黄金产品受年轻群体青睐，零售额表现向好（同比+7.2；9纷启订会战Q4季，售延亮表（同+7.7。对比三大可选消费品类，1-9M23化妆品类/金银珠宝类/服装鞋帽针纺织品类累计同比+6.8合21年期别增1.9增7.1/增3。图表33：以绝对值推算、Q3同比持平

图表34：1-9M23金银珠宝类社零增速领跑其他可选品类150% 服装鞋帽针纺织品类100% 化妆品类金银珠宝类50%限额以上企业品售额 服装鞋帽针纺150% 服装鞋帽针纺织品类100% 化妆品类金银珠宝类50%2019202020192020202120221-9M2330%25%20%15%10%19-0219-0519-0219-0519-0819-1120-0220-0520-0820-1121-0221-0521-0821-1122-0222-0522-0822-1123-0223-0523-080%-5%-10%来源：国家统计局， 来源：国家统计局，黄金产品价增驱动占主导，量微降。1）量：据中国黄金协会，Q3全国黄金消费量280.19吨同比-7，中黄首饰183.78吨比-8.8金和金币76.06吨同比，我们预计金饰需求同比下降主要系去年同期高基数+9月底金价大幅波动增强消2）价：Q3（Au9999）19.6。图表35：Q3黄金首饰/金条和金币消费量同比-8.8/-

图表36Q3（Au9999）日收盘均价同比黄金消费量（黄金消费量（黄金消费量（）黄金首饰yoy（右轴）金条及金币yoy（右轴）4.1+19.6250200%200150%100%15050%1000%50-50%0-100%来源：中国黄金协会， 来源：上海黄金交易所，/稳健我们选择老凤祥、豫园股份、中国黄金、周大生、菜百股份、迪阿股份、曼卡龙、潮宏基作为黄金珠宝板块样本股。图表37：黄金珠宝板块个股样本3032%42%13%2127%15.514.517.7438384517总体（除豫园、迪阿）3%90%13%10%2125%15.932.922.0564512677板块总体2354%30%24%6122%1.040.841.24151515潮宏基2361%29%2%323%0.180.240.27453曼卡龙89%-123%-73%--48%38%-42%-0.21-0.481.01557迪阿股份669%1531%25%7846%1.791.782.35403351菜百股份3%27%26%15%6950%3.553.743.65444041周大生1727%19%13%2212%2.042.373.00117134161中国黄金89%-8%341%6%2525%0.1718.823.36121122152豫园股份4915%7610%3%33%6.925.577.16217158246老凤祥3Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q23归母净利润yoy收入yoy归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）公司来源：各公司公告1-3QQ1（1-2、Q2延续亮眼表现（、Q3图表38：1-3Q23+18.7，表现好图表39Q3564+10.2于金银珠宝类社零12.2的增速 复合21年同期增10.3，表现稳健1-3Q23+18.7，12.2Q3564+10.22110.3图表38：1-3Q23+18.7，表现好图表39Q3564+10.2于金银珠宝类社零12.2的增速 复合21年同期增10.3，表现稳健黄金珠宝板块营收（亿元）yoy黄金珠宝板块营收（亿元）yoy（右轴）金银珠宝零售额增速（右轴）0

40%30%20%10%0%-10%

0

22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3

30%黄金珠宝板块营收（亿元）yoy黄金珠宝板块营收（亿元）yoy（右轴）剔除豫园股份、迪阿股份yoy（右轴）10%0%-10%-20%来源：， 来源：，图表40Q315.9

图表41：黄金珠宝板块1-3Q23业绩增速靓丽+3.5，调整后同比+30.1+3.5，调整后同比+30.1黄金珠宝板块归母净利润（亿元）yoy黄金珠宝板块归母净利润（亿元）yoy（右轴）剔除豫园股份、迪阿股份yoy（右轴）3530252015105022Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3

100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%

黄金珠宝板块净利（百万元）yoy黄金珠宝板块净利（百万元）yoy（右轴）0

80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%来源：， 来源：，、盈利性：金价上行+产品及渠道结构影响毛利率表现，收入增长摊薄费用、盈利能力同比提升//Q3老凤祥、中国黄金受益金价上行毛利率同比提升；毛利较低的黄金首饰+加盟代理收入占比提升、潮宏基毛利率同比-2.17PCT；黄金产品占比提升、周大生毛利率同比-13PCT。图表42：1-3Q23黄金珠宝板毛率同比+1.1PCT 图表43：1-3Q23黄金珠宝板块归净利率同比+0.5PCT

3.0% 6%黄金珠宝板块毛利率毛利率变动（右轴）2.0% 5%黄金珠宝板块毛利率毛利率变动（右轴）1.0% 4%0.0% 3%-1.0% 2%-2.0% 1%-3.0% 0%

1.0%黄金珠宝板块净利率净利率变动（右轴）0.8%黄金珠宝板块净利率净利率变动（右轴）0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.8%来源：， 来源：，图表44：3Q23黄金珠宝板块毛利率同比提振、盈利能力提升0.5%0.5%0.3%0.4%0.9%0.7%0.0%3.5%3.8%3.4%8.7%9.5%8.6%总体（除豫园、迪阿）-0.2%2.4%-0.4%-0.7%-1.0%-1.8%2.8%6.4%3.3%10.3%10.9%10.4%板块总体0.0%-0.3%0.5%-2.2%-7.2%-3.2%7.0%5.7%8.1%26.5%25.7%28.0%潮宏基0.8%0.9%1.6%-2.0%-4.1%0.9%4.5%5.0%7.7%16.2%14.5%23.2%曼卡龙%.1-16%-32.3%.5-16-2.8%-1.4%-1.3%4.1%-8.9%14.3%68.2%68.5%69.9%迪阿股份1.1%1.7%-0.5%-0.1%1.4%-1.3%4.5%5.4%4.6%10.5%11.6%11.4%菜百股份-1.0%-3.1%-1.7%-0.1%-5.5%-2.3%8.0%9.5%8.9%17.8%19.0%17.9%周大生0.0%0.1%0.1%1.7%-0.2%-0.1%1.7%1.8%1.9%4.2%4.5%4.0%中国黄金-1.2%11.1%-0.5%-3.2%-3.8%-4.4%0.1%15.4%2.2%13.7%12.7%14.0%豫园股份0.8%0.4%0.7%0.8%1.7%0.1%3.2%3.5%2.9%7.5%9.1%8.0%老凤祥3Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q23归母净利率变动毛利率变动归母净利率毛利率公司来源：各公司公告3Q23黄金珠宝板块（剔除豫园股份、迪阿股份）毛利率/销售费用率/管理费用率/归母净利率分别为、同+0.87/-0.29/-0.01/+0.47PCT。图表45：收入增长摊薄费用、3Q23黄金珠宝板块销售/管理费用率同比下降公司销售费用率管理费用率销售费用率变动管理费用率变动1Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q23老凤祥1.4%1.4%0.9%0.6%0.6%0.5%-0.1%0.3%-0.5%0.0%0.0%-0.1%豫园股份5.3%5.6%6.7%4.6%6.2%5.8%-0.8%-0.6%0.3%-1.6%-0.5%-1.2%中国黄金0.6%0.8%0.9%0.2%0.3%0.4%-0.3%-0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%周大生4.5%5.4%5.0%0.5%0.6%0.6%-1.2%-1.5%0.0%-0.3%-0.3%0.0%菜百股份2.8%2.3%2.6%0.7%0.4%0.6%0.0%-1.8%-0.5%-0.2%-0.5%-0.1%迪阿股份48.8%65.2%54.8%6.3%6.0%7.0%21.2%27.0%11.9%3.1%1.8%2.2%曼卡龙8.9%6.1%7.0%4.1%3.3%3.7%0.1%-2.4%-1.5%-0.5%-1.2%-0.8%潮宏基13.6%14.6%12.5%1.3%1.9%2.4%-2.5%-5.4%-3.1%-0.5%-0.5%0.5%来源：各公司公告图表46：3Q23黄金珠宝板块销售用率同比-0.29PCT 图表47：1-3Q23黄金珠宝板管费用率同比-0.3PCT黄金珠宝板块销售费用率销售费用率变动（右轴）4.5%黄金珠宝板块销售费用率销售费用率变动（右轴）4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%

0.30%0.20%0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%-0.30%-0.40%-0.50%

2020

2021

2022

2023H12023Q1-3

0.3%黄金珠宝板块管理费用率管理费用率变动（右轴）0.2%黄金