财务管理-报表分析的逻辑切入点

厦门国家会计学院

报表分析新思维(之一)

报表分析的逻辑切入点

黄世忠

Ph.DCPA.MBA单位邮址:11/12/20231XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮台与财务报表的预警信号中石油的经营记录与业绩评价移动电信的辉煌业绩与潜在风险本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系研讨要点与目的11/12/20232XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大核心问题问题1M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题2M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题3如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？

考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题11/12/20233XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模--雇员人数11/12/20234XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模--资产总额11/12/20235XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模—销售收入11/12/20236XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营规模--CFFOA11/12/20237XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市值(Capitalization)11/12/20238XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute财务实力—净资产11/12/20239XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

经营绩效—净利润11/12/202310XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002)

项目名称

GFC公司

M公司

倍数GFC合计M雇员人数36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45资产总额3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11销售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44现金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股东权益68564085325400.99净利润17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新经济与旧经济的反差11/12/202311XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.科学管理(时间和动作研究)2.成本核算和差异分析3.商业研究实验室(科学产业化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)资本分析和资本预算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大规模项目管理7.事业部制(GM)8.领导力开发(GE)9.产业内联合(多公司合作组织)(Visa)10.极度分权化(自我组织)(Google)11.正式化战略分析12.员工驱动问题解决法(Toyota)DuPontAnalysis13.臭鼬工厂(内部攻坚小组)14.客户管理15.业务流程再造

1900-2000年175项管理创新1.是否明显脱离以前的管理实践2.是否给率先创新的公司带来竞争优势3.是否在当今的组织中留下烙印

20世纪现代管理的12大创新11/12/202312XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute净资产收益率

(收入+利得)–(成本+费用+损失)实收资本+资本公积+盈余公积+未分配利润

净利润ROE=净资产做大分子:增收节支做小分母:光明正道:资本结构歪门邪道:亏损挥霍

ROE陷阱11/12/202313XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute财务数据：GFCv.sM(2003)

项目名称

GFC公司

M公司

倍数GFC合计M雇员人数32.332.838.4103.55.718.2资产总额4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3销售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2现金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股东权益2521174348036101.32净利润384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.38

新经济与旧经济的强烈反差11/12/202314XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利质量现金流量资产质量

财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点11/12/202315XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利质量收入质量利润质量毛利率成长性波动性研发营销

盈利质量分析方法11/12/202316XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入质量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999197169016011482200023017391698160320012531691160915402002284177316231474200332218551642136420043681935170914212005398192617711498200644320731601151620075111881172515262008604

11/12/202317XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入质量(QualityofRevenue)11/12/202318XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

利润质量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-25402008177

11/12/202319XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利润质量(QualityofProfit)11/12/202320XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteRivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004B$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement

(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)11/12/202321XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute项目名称GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005销售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽车1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83净利润27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽车-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a经营业绩:2005vs.200411/12/202322XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006:艰难的转折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$8711/12/202323XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)会计年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%2008

80.8%11/12/202324XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteM公司的成本费用结构3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish11/12/202325XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteR&D占销售收入比重2006年2248家企业集团R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%11/12/202326XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute成本结构与风险传导资产质量资产结构现金含量退出壁垒经营风险财务弹性潜在损失

资产质量分析方法技术风险11/12/202327XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2001)11/12/202328XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2002)11/12/202329XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2003)11/12/202330XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2004)11/12/202331XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2005)11/12/202332XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

如何解释市净率?13.15.55.83.40.6711/12/202333XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

品牌价值11/12/202334XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

被忽略的“软资产”Coca-ColaMicrosoft品牌价值资产总额股东权益品牌价值资产总额股东权益2001690224114651588473200269624411864167652220037052731416527966492004674314159614944748200567529416459970848211/12/202335XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute何为风险?Riskisuncertainty风险的类别经济风险(EconomicRisk)环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境）市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势）经营风险（OperationalRisk)固定成本与变动成本比例财务风险（FinancialRisk)资本结构与金融市场利率营业风险BusinessRisk利润易变性ProfitVolatility传导传导成本结构与风险传导11/12/202336XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute+5%+14%+18%

-5%-14%-18%

经济风险

经营风险

营业风险

财务风险经济状况政治社会环境销售收入息税前利润税后利润市场结构竞争优势

风险的传导与放大11/12/202337XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

XYZ公司风险评估测算表预期数

销售收入+5%

销售收入-5%销售收入50,000+5%52,500-5%47,500减:变动成本19,000+5%19,950-5%18,050

固定成本20,0000%20,0000%20,000息税前利润11,000+14%12,550-14%9,450减:固定利息支出2,5000%2,5000%2,500税前利润8,500+18%10,050-18%6,950减:所得税2,125+18%2,513-18%1,738税后利润6,375+18%7,537-18%5,212

风险传导放大效应11/12/202338XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute现金流量经营现金流量自由现金流量“造血”功能自由裁量

现金流量分析方法11/12/202339XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute广义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力狭义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利用于评估企业的财务弹性利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow11/12/202340XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute现金流量趋势:G(12vs.73)200420052006FCF+53-250-197Interest120158170Principal4526461419162007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:184411/12/202341XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2005.12.13Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23yearsGM-不断恶化的信用等级11/12/202342XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

GMvs.Toyota2008.11.7GM:27TM:105211/12/202343XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute谁是老大?11/12/202344XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54bGM-不堪重负的医疗与退休债务11/12/202345XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20052004GMToyotaGMToyotaHealthCare$1,850

$200$1,528$201Pension$700$50$695$50Total$2,550$250$2,223$251GAP:$2,300GAP:$1,972医疗及退休费用对制造成本的影响11/12/202346XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute汽车巨头盈利能力差异11/12/202347XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteS&PloweredFord’sratingtoB+onJune27,2006现金流量趋势:F(69vs.63)2007CF-O:171CF-CE:6011/12/202348XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForwardTurnaroundProgram1.CutNorthAmericaWhite-collarcostsby10%2.Eliminateupto30,000Hourlyjobsandclose14Plantsby20122006.9.15Buyoutall75,000NorthAmericanfactoryworkers$140,000perworkerTotal$10.5billion11/12/202349XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

现金流量趋势:C2007CF-O:191CF-CE:16411/12/202350XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

现金流量趋势:M11/12/202351XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft:股票期权的妙用IfyouworkforMicrosoft,Microsoftdoesnotpayyou,youhavetopayMicrosoft2003-2008166.4011/12/202352XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashCows市场成长性市场占有率高低高

BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968

波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)11/12/202353XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteStars(现金明星)

–PLC处于高速成长阶段，市场占有率很高且仍呈上升趋势–销售收入和现金流量有很高的增长潜力–获利丰厚，但现金流量不很充裕波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)11/12/202354XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCashCows(现金奶牛)市场占有率很高PLC处于成熟阶段产品维持成本较低现金性收入很高经营性现金流量十分充裕波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)11/12/202355XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteDogs(现金瘦狗)PLC处于衰退阶段

市场占有率很低或不断下降经营性现金流量入不敷出产品需要大量维持支出Isyourproductstartingtoembarrassyourcompany?波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)11/12/202356XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChild(问题小孩)PLC处于高速成长阶段，但市场占有率很低产品维持需要大量资金支出经营性现金流量可能出现负数未来潜力充满不确定性Problemchildren–worthspendinggoodmoneyon?波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix)11/12/202357XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

股票市场表现11/12/202358XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft的崛起1975年4月BillGatesandPaulAllen创立了MicrosoftMicrosoftstaffphotofromDecember7,1978.Fromlefttoright:

Top:SteveWood,BobWallace,JimLane.

Middle:BobO'Rear,BobGreenberg,MarcMcDonald,GordonLetwin.

Bottom:BillGates,AndreaLewis,MarlaWood,PaulAllen

IPOinMarch13,1986,raising$61mTodate,totalcapitalraisedismorethan$62.8b11/12/202359XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

BillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuffettdonated$37billion,mainlytotheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation+$5011/12/202360XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute谁是美国高科技的最大功臣?

中美经济改革的不同价值取向11/12/202361XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大逻辑切入点盈利质量资产质量现金流量收入质量利润质量毛利率高低成长性退出壁垒潜在损失经营现金流量自由现金流量波动性资产结构现金含量”造血“功能自由裁量研发营销报表分析三大逻辑切入点11/12/202362XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利质量与资产质量相互背离案例NPLRatio2005:4.62%;2006:4.04%NPLRatio2001:27.51%;2002:22.49%拨备覆盖率2001:16.80%2002:22.09%拨备覆盖率2005:80.55%;2006:96.00%11/12/202363XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利质量与资产质量相互背离案例类别名称XYZ银行20022001正常贷款11,5568,935关注贷款2,5202,558不良贷款4,0854,360其中:次级6571,089可疑1,5542,344损失1,874927贷款合计18,16215,853贷款准备903681贷款类别计提比例正常1%关注2%次级25%可疑50%损失100%11/12/202364XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute第一次不良贷款剥离Carved-outOrCoveredout?11/12/202365XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteBankAMCNPL(¥billion)工行华融407.7农行长城345.8中行东方267.4建行信达373.0合计1,394.0《财政部关于中国银行和中国建设银行所持金融资产管理公司债券本息有关问题的通知》（财金[2004]87号），从2005.1.1起，如果东方和信达不能全额向BOC和CCB支付债券利息或按期兑付本金，MOF将给予资金支持NPLtransferredtoAMC11/12/202366XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute414亿元可疑类贷款227亿元核销冲销贷款2787亿元可疑类贷款2460亿元损失类贷款4590亿元可疑类贷款交行2004.6中行和建行2004.6工行2005.5;2005.6信达信达四大AMC

不良贷款二次剥离11/12/202367XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute年度净利润CFFOA19989,876-17,191199912,308-21,248200017,844-53,57620013,610-2,59420022,280-84,8072003-18,683-15,54420041,98245,3002005-69,60021,6002006-71,86616,413年度净利润比例调整前17,844调整后6,99539.2%调整额10,84960.8%调整原因将原计入长期待摊费用和在建工程的R&D，作为重大会计差错进行调整

“纸面富贵”的D公司2004:S26.3;NI(A)-641;2005:S15.6;NI(A)-7.112006:S21.42004:NIoverstatedby3719,30finedbyCSRS11/12/202368XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

乐极生悲的四川长虹净利润20010.891.762.412004-36.812004Q1-Q3CFFOA-3.1211/12/202369XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute权责发生制会计管理当局动机盈利质量现金流量分析资产负债质量核心盈利可持续性、成长性、现金流量调整与调节应计制向现金流动制的转换确认和计量资产、负债、股东权益决策财务契约设计估值与投资信贷分析财务风险评估审计风险评估差错歪曲报表失真问题报表分析纬度报表分析用途财务报表分析的逻辑切入点11/12/202370XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大报表的功能区分资产负债表利润表现金流量表从“德隆系”的垮台看证券监管的误区基于新疆屯河的案例分析德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?11/12/202371XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute现金流量表的“妙用”经营活动产生的现金流量投资活动产生的现金流量筹资活动产生的现金流量造血功能抽血功能输血功能现金流量表—经常被忽略的报表11/12/202372XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteIPO的条件3年连续盈利上市前一年末的净资产比率不低于30%SEO的门槛配股：ROE不低于6%增发：上一年的ROE不低于10%ST或退市的标准ST：连续两年亏损，或NAPS低于1元退市：连续三年亏损复市的条件恢复盈利以利润表和资产负债表的监管导向11/12/202373XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

项目名称2001年末2002年末2003年末2004年末流动资产173,190281,349139,354163,402长期投资98,33978,10188,11448,081固定资产134,618245,025143,305171,191无形及其他资产23,62127,5469,73311,676

资产总计429,768632,021380,506394,350流动负债278,007426,140217,752311,522长期负债6,70642,83548,51443,459少数股东权益56,60962,0472,5923,378股东权益88,446100,999111,64835,991L&SE总计429,768632,021380,506394,350

德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?11/12/202374XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国电信的运营资本20072006200520042003固定资产339,331346,805351,938349,713341,576其他非流动资产25,99327,86028,70129,47129,391现金及银行存款20,55622,44518,86314,60318,199其他流动资产22,12421,76121,58219,83920,278资产合计408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444流动负债138,537157,629157,707152,284149,630非流动负债47,09553,59377,199100,007102,744负债合计185,632211,222234,906252,291252,374股东权益222.372207,649186,178161,335157,070负债与股东权益合计408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444运营资本-95,857-113,423-117,262-117,842-111,153运营资本—中国移动+52,68+22,16111/12/202375XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20047,459185,084-34,924德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?11/12/202376XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute项目名称2001年2002年2003年2004年主营业务收入76,726194,351217,379109,765主营业务利润25,87272,13878,55029,980营业利润3,8247,6135,357-29,177加：投资收益4,2354,9929,824-37,839补贴收入5654,887407472营业外收入317411345106减：营业外支出1565564781,958利润总额8,78517,34715,456-68,397减：所得税-5222,374168179少数股东损益4,2413,7093,361-746加：未确认投资损失

1,229净利润5,06611,26211,926-66,601德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?11/12/202377XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute项目名称2001年2002年2003年2004年经营活动产生的现金-19,61848,84527,726-41,910投资活动的现金流入3,72228370,39315,232其中:收回投资3,180069,94815,100投资收益506000投资活动的现金流出55,91351,884173,16724,909投资活动的净现金流-52,19151,601-102,774-9,676筹资活动的现金流入156,569212,677327,95262,126其中:借款137,244212,467324,97358,968筹资活动的现金流出75,651143,361289,02050,596其中：偿还债务67,830123,278270,33240,802

支付股利和利息7,82119,89717,3419,733德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?11/12/202378XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?11/12/202379XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆的死因既不是被郎咸平“搞死”的，也不是被监管部门“整死”的而是自己“搞死”的战略管理的失误理财策略的失误短借长用“造血”功能不足，靠“输血”维持，且不懂得“节制”初步启示证券监管出现方向性“偏差”CSRC和两个SE都不关心现金流量表，CPA也不例外理性回归牢记理财学中的“万有引力定律”Cashisking!CashFlowStatementisakingwithoutcloth!

简短结论11/12/202380XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute燃料工业部石油管理总局(1950.4)石油工业部(1955.7)燃料化学工业部(1970.6)石油化学工业部(1975)石油工业部(1978)中国石油天然气总公司(1988.9)中国石油天然气集团公司(1998.7)中国海洋石油总公司(1982.2)中国石油化工总公司(1983.7)

中国石油化工行业的沿革11/12/202381XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2000.4上市—200亿2005.9增发—196亿1999.11.5重组中石油(0857.HK)股价周线图发行40亿A股,发行价16.70元，募集688亿元股份比例%国有股157986.28H股21111.53A股402.19合计1830100.011/12/202382XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油上市以来股价表现发行价格1.26vs.16.7巴菲特撤退?11/12/202383XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油业绩因何突出?--业绩角度2008Q3S:8537NI:98711/12/202384XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油业绩因何突出?–税收角度2008Q3188311/12/202385XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油业绩因何突出?–资产结构角度2008Q3TA:10594;FA:693511/12/202386XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油业绩因何突出?

–财务状况角度2008Q3TA:11227;SE:7853DR:30.05%DR:28.07%11/12/202387XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油业绩因何突出?–现金流量角度2008Q3OA:1499;IA:-1196;FA:-26911/12/202388XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油业绩因何突出?—自由现金流量角度2008Q3:19711/12/202389XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国石油业绩报告(可控与不可控因素分析)油价影响?EVA影响?改制影响?中石油业绩因何突出?11/12/202390XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

业绩飙升的动因2007接替率原油:1.104天然气:3.23811/12/202391XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute原油价格走势图(2000-2008)2008.10.31收盘$67.812008.7.11最高$147.2711/12/202392XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

“暴利税”(300亿)政府的重大决定(2006.3.26)《国务院关于开征石油企业收益特别金的决定》、财政部《石油收益特别金征收管理办法》

原油价格

税率$40-$4520%$45-$5025%$50-$5530%$55-$6035%$60以上40%11/12/202393XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteEVAvs.NI–中石油

EVA=NOPAT–ICxWACC或EVA=净利润-净资产×资金成本率11/12/202394XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute资本成本导致经营业绩锐减EVAvs.NI–中石化(2002)11/12/202395XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteValueCreationValueDestructionEVAvs.NI–四川长虹(2002)11/12/202396XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCNPCvs.PC

的比较及涵义资产总额股东权益销售收入税后利润少数股东损益2000集团股份6,5654,3203,9392,1763,4512,453197546522001集团股份6,7514,6274,0892,9063,4352,413151455832002集团股份7,3614,8314,5043,1673,7922,444236469942003集团股份8,0835,3174,9693,5664,7533,038371696802004集团股份9,1376,0995,9544,2525,7073,8867251,0291382005集团股份11,6027,7817,4755,4376,9375,5221,0611,3961672006集团股份14,0908,685n.a6,1768,6856,8901,2991,49488.2%(1,318)2007集团股份15,9909,641n.a7,15110,0078,3501,3451,43486.3%(1,238)11/12/202397XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute项目名称SinopecGroupSinopec资产总额6,2024,608负债及少数股东权益4,2922,744股东权益1,9101,864主营业务收入6,3425,906净利润105323销售利润率1.69%7.00%净资产收益率5.49%17.32%SINOPEC少数股东损益165有何涵义？中石化集团vs.中石化股份的比较及涵义11/12/202398XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile2006.12.312008.10.3111/12/202399XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile项目名称200220032004200520062007销售收入--PC--EM2,4932,0093,1042,3713,9742,9125,5223,5906,8903,6558,3503,903税后利润--PC--EM4741157192151,0672531,3963611,4943951,434406资产总额--PC--EM5,0091,5265,5701,7436,3851,9537,7812,0838,7212,1909,9412,421净资产--PC--EM3,2437463,6698994,4301,0185,4371,1125,4371,1127,1511,2183.412.071.781.2411/12/2023100XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile项目名称200220032004200520062007销售利润率--PC--EM19.01%5.72%23.16%9.06%27.07%8.69%25.28%10.06%21.68%10.81%17.17%10.40%资产周转率--PC--EM0.511.360.591.450.661.580.781.780.841.710.891.70财务杠杆系数--PC--EM1.542.051.521.941.441.921.431.871.411.921.391.99净资产收益率--PC--EM14.93%15.95%20.77%25.48%25.73%26.36%28.19%33.49%25.68%35.49%21.34%34.50%DebtRatio-2007PC:28%EM:50%11/12/2023101XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

DuPont分析体系净资产收益率的分解

净利润净资产收益率=净资产净利润销售收入资产总额净资产收益率=××销售收入资产总额净资产=销售利润率×资产周转率×财务杠杆系数11/12/2023102XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国电信市场概览市场总量2007年全国通信业务收入7120.6亿元其中电信业务收入7280.18亿元,增长10.9%邮政业务收入771.5亿元,增长21.2%电话用户总量2007.12.31,全国电话用户91,273.4万户其中移动电话用户54,728.4万户,约占60%固定电话用户36,545万户,约占40%11/12/2023103XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute移动电话一支独秀11/12/2023104XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

发展趋势:冰火两重天11/12/2023105XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute电信市场构成11/12/2023106XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute移动通信案例分析—市场占有率11/12/2023107XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute王建宙:我举双手赞成!常小兵:我想不通!王晓初:我无话可说!电信三巨头闪电换岗

---中组部和国资委的灰色幽默11/12/2023108XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute电信重组:走向实质竞争?新中国电信=旧中国电信+CDMA网+中国卫通基础电信业务新中国联通=旧中国联通GSM网+中国网通新中国移动=旧中国移动+中国铁通王晓初常小兵王建宙11/12/2023109XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute电信三巨头的竞争实力中国移动中国联通中国电信联通网通营业收入3,5701,0058411,787增长率10.9%4.1%-3.35%2.80%EBIDTA1,940326412893EBIDTA率54.3%33.0%50.0%50.0%净利润87156121237增长率31.9%166%-6.70%1.10%用户数(亿)3.8661.6249固话1.1878宽带0.1977固话2.26宽带0.3565净增数(万)6810.71825.3固话-325.2宽带533.9固话-271宽带73311/12/2023110XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国移动(0941.HK)股价月线图1997.7上市323亿元11/12/2023111XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国联通(0762.HK)股价月线图2000.6上市453亿11/12/2023112XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute市场开拓？资本运作?营业收入趋势图(Comparability)2008H119652008H135911/12/2023113XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入成长性11/12/2023114XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute会计年度纳入合并的子公司家数报表数备拷数金额（亿元）比增金额（亿元）比增20006182---247---20011328053.8%28415.0%20022132716.4%34019.7%2003213568.9%3472.1%20043142018.0%43224.50%20053153527.4%53523.8%合并范围对中国移动营业收入的影响11/12/2023115XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

中国移动营业收入曲线11/12/2023116XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute经营业绩项目20012002200320042005经营收入-报告数-备拷数6851,3017551,4091,1851,5161,6121,6121,6931,693利润总额-报告数-备拷数698316983247139281281280280资产总额-报告数-备拷数1,8934,2342,1084,2373,0564,0394,1264,1264,1714,171L&MI-报告数-备拷数9182,5408582,3671,7442,5312,5342,5342,3552,355净资产-报告数-备拷数9751,6941,2501,8701,3121,5081,5921,5921,8161,816

中国电信5年财务概要11/12/2023117XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

中国电信过去5年业绩成长11/12/2023118XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国电信过去五年收入构成11/12/2023119XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国电信经营成本构成200620052004金额%金额%金额%折旧与摊销51,27237.5749,65238.0947,17038.86网络营运及支撑成本30,72322.5130,33423.2727,61122.75销售、一般及管理费用22,24116.3019,89215.2619,22915.84人工成本26,01919.0624,96019.1523,23319.14网间互联&其他经营成本6,2554.595,5184.234,1393.41合计136,483100.0130,356100.0121,382100.011/12/2023120XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中国移动经营成本构成项目名称金额备注电路租费3,224其他营运支出主要包括销售及推广开支、减值损失、经营租赁费用、维修费用、收账服务费用、无线电频率费用等。假设其中60%为固定成本，则固定成本占经营成本的70%网间互联支出15,309折旧56,368工资14,200其他营运支出80,254经营成本合计169,35511/12/2023121XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute会计

年度