风险管理外文翻译

外文文献翻译译文一、外文原文原文：RiskManagementThischapterreviewsanddiscussesthebasicissuesandprinciplesofriskmanagement,including:riskacceptability(tolerability);riskreductionandtheALARPprinciple;cautionaryandprecautionaryprinciples.Andpresentsacasestudyshowingtheimportanceoftheseissuesandprinciplesinapracticalmanagementcontext.Beforewetakeacloserlook,letusbrieflyaddresssomebasicfeaturesofriskmanagement.Thepurposeofriskmanagementistoensurethatadequatemeasuresaretakentoprotectpeople,theenvironment,andassetsfrompossibleharmfulconsequencesoftheactivitiesbeingundertaken,aswellastobalancedifferentconcerns,inparticularrisksandcosts.Riskmanagementincludesmeasuresbothtoavoidthehazardsandtoreducetheirpotentialharm.Traditionally,inindustriessuchasnuclear,oil,andgas,riskmanagementwasbasedonaprescriptiveregulatingregime,inwhichdetailedrequirementsweresetwithregardtothedesignandoperationofthearrangements.Thisregimehasgraduallybeenreplacedbyamoregoal-orientedregime,puttingemphasisonwhattoachieveratherthanonthemeansofachievingit.Riskmanagementisanintegralaspectofagoal-orientedregime.Itisacknowledgedthatriskcannotbeeliminatedbutmustbemanaged.Thereisnowadaysanenormousdriveandenthusiasminvariousindustriesandinsocietyasawholetoimplementriskmanagementinorganizations.Therearehighexpectationsthatriskmanagementistheproperframeworkthroughwhichtoachievehighlevelsofperformance.Riskmanagementinvolvesachievinganappropriatebalancebetweenrealizingopportunitiesforgainandminimizinglosses.Itisanintegralpartofgoodmanagementpracticeandanessentialelementofgoodcorporategovernance.Itisaniterativeprocessconsistingofstepsthat,whenundertakeninsequence,canleadtoacontinuousimprovementindecision-makingandfacilitateacontinuousimprovementinperformance.Tosupportdecision-makingregardingdesignandoperation,riskanalysesarecarriedout.Theyincludetheidentificationofhazardsandthreats,causeanalyses,consequenceanalyses,andriskdescriptions.Theresultsarethenevaluated.Thetotalityoftheanalysesandtheevaluationsarereferredtoasriskassessments.Riskassessmentisfollowedbyrisktreatment,whichisaprocessinvolvingthedevelopmentandimplementationofmeasurestomodifytherisk,includingmeasuresdesignedtoavoid,reduce(“optimize”),transfer,orretaintherisk.Risktransfermeanssharingwithanotherpartythebenefitorlossassociatedwitharisk.Itistypicallyaffectedthroughinsurance.Riskmanagementcoversallcoordinatedactivitiesinthedirectionandcontrolofanorganizationwithregardtorisk.Inmanyenterprises,theriskmanagementtasksaredividedintothreemaincategories:strategicrisk,financialrisk,andoperationalrisk.Strategicriskincludesaspectsandfactorsthatareimportantfortheenterprise’slong-termstrategyandplans,forexamplemergersandacquisitions,technology,competition,politicalconditions,legislationandregulations,andlabormarket.Financialriskincludestheenterprise’sfinancialsituation,andincludes:Marketrisk,associatedwiththecostsofgoodsandservices,foreignexchangeratesandsecurities(shares,bonds,etc.).Creditrisk,associatedwithadebtor’sfailuretomeetitsobligationsinaccordancewithagreedterms.Liquidityrisk,reflectinglackofaccesstocash;thedifficultyofsellinganassetinatimelymanner.Operationalriskisrelatedtoconditionsaffectingthenormaloperatingsituation:Accidentalevents,includingfailuresanddefects,qualitydeviations,naturaldisasters.Intendedacts;sabotage,disgruntledemployees,etc.Lossofcompetence,keypersonnel.Legalcircumstances,associatedforinstance,withdefectivecontractsandliabilityinsurance.Foranenterprisetobecomesuccessfulinitsimplementationofriskmanagement,topmanagementneedstobeinvolved,andactivitiesmustbeputintoeffectonmanylevels.Someimportantpointstoensuresuccessare:theestablishmentofastrategyforriskmanagement,i.e.,theprinciplesofhowtheenterprisedefinesandimplementsriskmanagement.Shouldonesimplyfollowtheregulatoryrequirements(minimalrequirements),orshouldonebethe“bestintheclass”?Theestablishmentofariskmanagementprocessfortheenterprise,i.e.formalprocessesandroutinesthattheenterpriseistofollow.Theestablishmentofmanagementstructures,withrolesandresponsibilities,suchthattheriskanalysisprocessbecomesintegratedintotheorganization.Theimplementationofanalysesandsupportsystems,suchasriskanalysistools,recordingsystemsforoccurrencesofvarioustypesofevents,etc.Thecommunication,training,anddevelopmentofariskmanagementculture,sothatthecompetence,understanding,andmotivationlevelwithintheorganizationisenhanced.Giventheabovefundamentalsofriskmanagement,thenextstepistodevelopprinciplesandamethodologythatcanbeusedinpracticaldecision-making.Thisisnot,however,straightforward.Thereareanumberofchallengesandhereweaddresssomeofthese:establishinganinformativeriskpictureforthevariousdecisionalternatives,usingthisriskpictureinadecision-makingcontext.Establishinganinformativeriskpicturemeansidentifyingappropriateriskindicesandassessmentsofuncertainties.Usingtheriskpictureinadecisionmakingcontextmeansthedefinitionandapplicationofriskacceptancecriteria,costbenefitanalysesandtheALARPprinciple,whichstatesthatriskshouldbereducedtoalevelwhichisaslowasisreasonablypracticable.Itiscommontodefineanddescriberisksintermsofprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Thishas,however,beenchallenged,sincetheprobabilitiesandexpectedvaluescancamouflageuncertainties;theassignedprobabilitiesareconditionalonanumberofassumptionsandsuppositions,andtheydependonthebackgroundknowledge.Uncertaintiesareoftenhiddeninthisbackgroundknowledge,andrestrictingattentiontotheassignedprobabilitiescancamouflagefactorsthatcouldproducesurprisingoutcomes.Byjumpingdirectlyintoprobabilities,importantuncertaintyaspectsareeasilytruncated,andpotentialsurprisesmaybeleftunconsidered.Letus,asanexample,considertherisks,seenthroughtheeyesofariskanalystinthe1970s,associatedwithfuturehealthproblemsfordiversworkingonoffshorepetroleumprojects.Theanalystassignsavaluetotheprobabilitythatadiverwouldexperiencehealthproblems(properlydefined)duringthecoming30yearsduetothedivingactivities.Letusassumethatavalueof1%wasassigned,anumberbasedontheknowledgeavailableatthattime.Therearenostrongindicationsthatthediverswillexperiencehealthproblems,butweknowtodaythattheseprobabilitiesledtopoorpredictions.Manydivershaveexperiencedseverehealthproblems(AvonandVine,).Byrestrictingrisktotheprobabilityassignmentsalone,importantaspectsofuncertaintyandriskarehidden.Thereisalackofunderstandingabouttheunderlyingphenomena,buttheprobabilityassignmentsalonearenotabletofullydescribethisstatus.Severalriskperspectivesanddefinitionshavebeenproposedinlinewiththisrealization.Forexample,Avon(a,a)definesriskasthetwo-dimensionalcombinationofevents/consequencesandassociateduncertainties(willtheeventsoccur,whattheconsequenceswillbe).AcloselyrelatedperspectiveissuggestedbyAvonandRenan(a),whodefineriskassociatedwithanactivityasuncertaintyaboutandseverityoftheconsequencesoftheactivity,whereseverityreferstointensity,size,extension,scopeandotherpotentialmeasuresofmagnitudewithrespecttosomethingthathumansvalue(lives,theenvironment,money,etc.).Lossesandgains,expressedforexampleinmonetarytermsorasthenumberoffatalities,arewaysofdefiningtheseverityoftheconsequences.SeealsoAvonandChristensen().Inthecaseoflargeuncertainties,riskassessmentscansupportdecision-making,butotherprinciples,measures,andinstrumentsarealsorequired,suchasthecautionary/precautionaryprinciplesaswellasrobustnessandresiliencestrategies.Aninformativedecisionbasisisneeded,butitshouldbefarmorenuancedthancanbeobtainedbyaprobabilisticanalysisalone.Thishasbeenstressedbymanyresearchers,e.g.Apostolicism(1990)andApostolicismandLemon():qualitativeriskanalysis(QRA)resultsareneverthesolebasisfordecision-making.Safety-andsecurity-relateddecision-makingisrisk-informed,notrisk-based.Thisconclusionisnot,however,justifiedmerelybyreferringtotheneedforaddressinguncertaintiesbeyondprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Themainissuehereisthefactthatrisksneedtobebalancedwithotherconcerns.Whenvarioussolutionsandmeasuresaretobecomparedandadecisionistobemade,theanalysisandassessmentsthathavebeenconductedprovideabasisforsuchadecision.Inmanycases,establisheddesignprinciplesandstandardsprovideclearguidance.Compliancewithsuchprinciplesandstandardsmustbeamongthefirstreferencepointswhenassessingrisks.Itiscommonthinkingthatriskmanagementprocesses,andespeciallyALARPprocesses,requireformalguidelinesorcriteria(e.g.,riskacceptancecriteriaandcost-effectivenessindices)tosimplifythedecision-making.Caremust;however,beshownwhenusingthistypeofformaldecision-makingcriteria,astheyeasilyresultinamechanizationofthedecision-makingprocess.Suchmechanizationisunfortunatebecause:Decision-makingcriteriabasedonrisk-relatednumbersalone(probabilitiesandexpectedvalues)donotcapturealltheaspectsofrisk,costs,andbenefits,nomethodhasaprecisionthatjustifiesamechanicaldecisionbasedonwhethertheresultisoverorbelowanumericalcriterion.Itisamanagerialresponsibilitytomakedecisionsunderuncertainty,andmanagementshouldbeawareoftherelevantrisksanduncertainties.ApostolicismandLemon()adoptapragmaticapproachtoriskanalysisandriskmanagement,acknowledgingthedifficultiesofdeterminingtheprobabilitiesofanattack.Ideally,theywouldliketoimplementarisk-informedprocedure,basedonexpectedvalues.However,sincesuchanapproachwouldrequiretheuseofprobabilitiesthathavenotbeen“rigorouslyderived”,theyseethemselvesforcedtoresorttoamorepragmaticapproach.Thisisonepossibleapproachwhenfacingproblemsoflargeuncertainties.Theriskanalysessimplydonotprovideasufficientlysolidbasisforthedecision-makingprocess.Wearguealongthesamelines.Thereisaneedforamanagementreviewandjudgmentprocess.Itisnecessarytoseebeyondthecomputedriskpictureintheformoftheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Traditionalquantitativeriskanalysesfailinthisrespect.Weacknowledgetheneedforanalyzingrisk,butquestionthevalueaddedbyperformingtraditionalquantitativeriskanalysesinthecaseoflargeuncertainties.Thearbitrarinessinthenumbersproducedcanbesignificant,duetotheuncertaintiesintheestimatesorasaresultoftheuncertaintyassessmentsbeingstronglydependentontheanalysts.Itshouldbeacknowledgedthatriskcannotbeaccuratelyexpressedusingprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Aquantitativeriskanalysisisinmanycasesbetterreplacedbyamorequalitativeapproach,asshownintheexamplesabove;anapproachwhichmaybereferredtoasasemi-quantitativeapproach.Quantifyingriskusingriskindicessuchastheexpectednumberoffatalitiesgivesanimpressionthatriskcanbeexpressedinaverypreciseway.However,inmostcases,thearbitrarinessislarge.Inasemi-quantitativeapproachthisisacknowledgedbyprovidingamorenuancedriskpicture,whichincludesfactorsthatcancause“surprises”relativetotheprobabilitiesandtheexpectedvalues.Quantificationoftenrequiresstrongsimplificationsandassumptionsand,asaresult,importantfactorscouldbeignoredorgiventoolittle(ortoomuch)weight.Inaqualitativeorsemi-quantitativeanalysis,amorecomprehensiveriskpicturecanbeestablished,takingintoaccountunderlyingfactorsinfluencingrisk.Incontrasttotheprevailinguseofquantitativeriskanalyses,theprecisionleveloftheriskdescriptionisinlinewiththeaccuracyoftheriskanalysistools.Inaddition,riskquantificationisveryresourcedemanding.Oneneedstoaskwhethertheresourcesareusedinthebestway.Weconcludethatinmanycasesmoreisgainedbyopeningupthewaytoabroader,morequalitativeapproach,whichallowsforconsiderationsbeyondtheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Thetraditionalquantitativeriskassessmentsasseenforexampleinthenuclearandtheoil&gasindustriesprovidearathernarrowriskpicture,throughcalculatedprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues,andweconcludethatthisapproachshouldbeusedwithcareforproblemswithlargeuncertainties.Alternativeapproacheshighlightingthequalitativeaspectsaremoreappropriateinsuchcases.Abroadriskdescriptionisrequired.Thisisalsothecaseinthenormativeambiguitysituations,astheriskcharacterizationsprovideabasisfortheriskevaluationprocesses.Themainconcernisthevaluejudgments,buttheyshouldbesupportedbysolidscientificassessments,showingabroadriskpicture.Ifonetriestodemonstratethatitisrationaltoacceptrisk,onascientificbasis,toonarrowanapproachtoriskhasbeenadopted.Recognizinguncertaintyasamaincomponentofriskisessentialtosuccessfullyimplementriskmanagement,forcasesoflargeuncertaintiesandnormativeambiguity.Ariskdescriptionshouldcovercomputedprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues,aswellas:Sensitivitiesshowinghowtheriskindicesdependonthebackgroundknowledge(assumptionsandsuppositions);Uncertaintyassessments;Descriptionofthebackgroundknowledge,includingmodelsanddataused.Theuncertaintyassessmentsshouldnotberestrictedtostandardprobabilisticanalysis,asthisanalysiscouldhideimportantuncertaintyfactors.Thesearchforquantitative,explicitapproachesforexpressingtheuncertainties,evenbeyondthesubjectiveprobabilities,mayseemtobeapossiblewayforward.However,suchanapproachisnotrecommended.Tryingtobepreciseandtoaccuratelyexpresswhatisextremelyuncertaindoesnotmakesense.Insteadwerecommendamoreopenqualitativeapproachtorevealsuchuncertainties.Somemightconsiderthistobelessattractivefromamethodologicalandscientificpointofview.Perhapsitis,butitwouldbemoresuitedforsolvingtheproblemathand,whichisabouttheanalysisandmanagementofriskanduncertainties.Source:TerjeAven..“RiskManagement”.RiskinTechnologicalSystems,Oct,p175-198.二、翻译文章译文：风险管理本章回想和讨论风险管理的基本问题和原则，涉及：风险可接受性（耐受性）、风险削减和安全风险管理原则、警示和防止原则，并提出了一种研究案例，阐明在实际管理环境中这些问题和原则的重要性。这需要我们的进一步研究，在此之前，让我们简朴谈谈风险管理的某些基本特性。风险管理的目的是：在现时事件产生有害后果时，及时采用适宜的方法以确保人类，环境和资产的安全，以及平衡人们的不同关注取向，特别是风险和成本。风险管理涉及两种方法，控制危险源和减少潜在的危害。传统上，诸如核能，石油和天然气产业，风险管理重要是依靠规范监管制度来管理的，这项制度对设计和操作的安排提出了系统性的规定。但是渐渐的，这一制度已被一项更加原则化的制度所取代，此制度是强调要获得的成果而不是如何实现这些成果的手段。风险管理是原则化制度的一种构成部分。风险不能消除，只能加以控制改善，这是被人们所公认的。现在有一项含有巨大驱动力和感召力的方法正应运而生，它将不同产业和社会作为一种整体来实施组织风险管理。风险管理是一项适宜的方法，人们对于用它来实现高产值有很大的盼望。风险管理涉及可认识到的实现增益的机会和损失的最小化，并且在它们之间实现适宜的平衡。这是一种组织构成良好有效的管理实践的基本要素。这是一种由递进环节构成的重复的过程，按次序进行时，能不停提高决策对的性并且增进产值的不停增加。为了支持决策方面的设计和操作，需要进行风险分析。它们涉及危害物和威胁识别，成因分析，成果分析和风险描述鉴定，然后评定成果。全部的分析和评定将被作为风险评定。另首先是风险评定的解决方法，这是一种过程，涉及开发和实施方法来缓和风险，方法涉及避免，减少（“优化”），转移或保存风险。风险转移意味着与另一方共同享有利益或承当由于损失造成的风险。它最典型的是受保险的影响。风险管理涵盖了全部协调活动的方向目的和风险组织。在许多公司中，风险管理的任务分为三大类：战略风险，财务风险和经营风险。战略风险涉及对于公司的长久战略和计划起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼并和收购，技术，竞争，政治环境，法律和法规，以及劳工市场。财务风险涉及影响公司财务状况的因素，涉及：市场风险，商品和服务，外汇汇率和证券的有关成本（股票，债权等）；信用风险，与债务人没有按照其商定的有关条款推行义务；流动性风险，反映现金缺少时，及时出售资产的困难。操作风险是有关条件影响正常工作的状况：意外的事件，涉及故障和缺点，质量差，自然灾害；预期行为，破坏，心怀不满的雇员等；丧失竞争力，核心人员；与法律环境下有关的，例如有缺点合同及责任保险。一种公司要成功实施风险管理，需要高层管理人员参加，活动必须贯彻在许多层面上。确保成功的要点是一种风险管理战略确实立，例如公司如何定义和实施风险管理的原则。难道仅仅只需遵照监管规定（最低规定），或追求“成为最佳的”？公司风险管理过程的建立，涉及公司贯彻的正式流程和常规。建立管理构造，涉及角色和责任分派，这样，风险分析过程和组织融为一体。分析和支持系统的实施，如风险工具分析，执行，统计系统多个类型的事件的发生等。沟通，培训和发展风险管理文化，这样，组织的能力，理解和动机水平得到增强。实施了上述风险管理的基础原则后，下一步是制订可用于实际决策中的原则和办法。然而，这并不是那么简朴，尚有一系列的挑战，在这里我们列举其中某些：为不同的风险选择建立一种丰富的风险信息平台，将其运用到风险决策环境中。这意味着对的认识不拟定因素的风险指数和风险评定。在风险决策方面则意味着接受风险的定义和准则，成本效益分析和安全风险管理原则，风险应当减少到实际合理的最低水平。定义和描述有关风险的概率和预期性价值是常见的现象。然而，这受到了挑战，由于概率和预期值的不拟定性是隐蔽的。概率的分派都是有条件的基于数量的简朴假设和推测，他们根据的是背景知识。不拟定性往往是隐藏在这个背景知识背面，注意限制性是由于给定的概率而产生的，这些因素的隐蔽性可能产生令人惊讶的成果。直接考虑到了重要的不拟定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潜在的惊喜可能会是你不曾考虑到的。让我们举一种例子，通过20世纪70年代风险分析师分析海上石油项目工作的有关潜水员将来健康的问题来考虑风险。该分析师对潜水员在将来30年中将经历的由于潜水活动而产生的健康问题（对的的定义）分派一种价值概率。让我们假设1%的价值被分派，以当时的知识为基础是适宜的。没有强烈的迹象表明潜水员会碰到健康问题，但在今天我们懂得这些概率造成了较少的预测。许多潜水员们已出现了严重的健康问题（Avon和Vine，）。通过限制单独作业风险的概率，不拟定性和风险的重要方面被隐藏了。由于对深层次的现象缺少理解，单独作业的概率不能充足描述这种状态。某些危险的观点和定义已被提出并且已被证明符合这个现实。例如，Avon（a，a）把风险定义为事件/后果和有关不拟定性的二维组合（将发生的事件，后果将是什么）。Avon和Renan（a）建议从一种亲密有关的角度将风险定义为有关不拟定性活动及其产生的严重后果，其严重性是指强度，大小，扩展，范畴和其它潜在的有关人类价值（生活，环境，金钱等）的大小方法。损失和收益，例如以货币形