联合国粮农组织（FAO）：作物监测预警月报2023年6月

Contents:

ConditionsataGlance

2

GlobalClimateOutlook

3

ClimateInfluences

3

EastAfrica;RegionalClimateOutlook

4

WestAfrica

7

MiddleEast&NorthAfrica

8

SouthernAfrica

9

Central&SouthAsia

11

SoutheastAsia

1

2

CentralAmerica&Caribbean;RegionalClimateOutlook

1

4

Appendix–Terminology&Definitions

1

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No.83–June2023

Overview:

InEastAfrica,conditionsaremostlyfavourableforbothBelgandMeherseasoncerealsinEthiopiaduetobeneficialrainsreceived.Inthesouth,plantinganddevelopmentofmainseasoncerealscontinuesundermixedconditionswithsomeimprovementduetoenhancedrainsacrosspartsoftheregion(SeeRegionalOutlookPg.6).InWestAfrica,plantinganddevelopmentofmainseasoncerealscontinuesundergenerallyfavourableconditionsexceptinpartsofMaliandGuinea-Bissauexperiencingdelayedrainsandinareasimpactedbypersistentconflict.IntheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,wheatharvestingisrampingupwithongoingmixedconditionsandbelow-averageyieldsexpectedinpartsofMorocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Syria,andIraqduetopersistentdrynessthroughouttheseason,andneartotalcropfailureisexpectedinsomelocalizedareas.InSouthernAfrica,harvestingofmainseasoncerealshasmostlycompletedundermixedconditions.CropfailurehasresultedinSouthernMalawiduetostormdamageandnorthernNamibiaduetopersistentdryandhotconditions,anddryconditionsarealsolikelytoimpactyieldsinpartsofAngola,Botswana,Zambia,andMozambique.InCentralandSouthAsia,harvestingofwinterwheatisunderway,andpersistentdrynessiscausingconcerninAfghanistan,Turkmenistan,andUzbekistan.The2023-2024wetseasonisexpectedtobewetterthannormalduetotheexpectedshifttoElNiño(SeeClimateInfluencesPg.3).InSoutheastAsia,harvestingofdry-seasonriceisnearingcompletioninthenorthunderfavourableconditionsexceptinpartsofwesternMyanmarimpactedbyCycloneMocha.InIndonesia,harvestingofwet-seasonricecontinuesunderfavourableconditions.InCentralAmericaandtheCaribbean,dryandhotconditionscontinuetocauseconcerninGuatemala,northernHonduras,easternNicaragua,andHaitiandareforecasttocontinueduringthenextseveralmonthswiththelikelydevelopmentofanElNiñoevent(SeeClimateInfluencesPg.3andRegionalOutlookPg.15).CropsinCubaarebenefittingfromabundantprecipitationinAprilandMay.

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GEOGLAMCropMonitorforEarlyWarning

CropConditionsataGlance

basedonbestavailableinformationasofMay28th

CropconditionmapsynthesizinginformationforallCropMonitorforEarlyWarningcropsasofMay28th.Cropconditionsoverthemaingrowingareasarebasedonacombinationofinputsincludingremotelysenseddata,groundobservations,fieldreports,national,andregionalexperts.Regionsthatareinotherthanfavourableconditionsarelabeledonthemapwithasymbolrepresentingthecrop(s)affected.

fromTropicalCycloneFreddyandinpartsofnorthernNamibiaduetodryandhotconditionsthisseason.PoorconditionshavealsoresultedinpartsofAngola,Botswana,Zambia,andMozambiqueduetopersistentdryness.Elsewhere,endofseasonconditionsaremostlyfavourabletoexceptional.

CENTRAL&SOUTHASIA:Winterwheatharvestingisrampingup,andoverallconditionsaremixedwithconcerninAfghanistan,Turkmenistan,andUzbekistanduetopersistentdryconditions.AlikelyshifttoElNiñosuggestsabove-averageprecipitationforthe2023-2024wetseason(SeeClimateInfluencesPg.3)

SOUTHEASTASIA:Harvestingofdry-seasonriceisnearingcompletioninthenorthundergenerallyfavourableconditionsexceptinwesternMyanmarwhereCycloneMochaimpactedcrops.Plantingofwet-seasonriceisdelayedinsomeareasduetothelaterainyseason.InIndonesia,harvestingofwet-seasonricecontinuesunderfavourableconditions.

CENTRALAMERICA&CARIBBEAN:PlantingofPrimeraseasoncerealsisjustbeginningundermixedconditionswithconcerninGuatemala,northernHonduras,andeasternNicaraguawheredryandhotconditionsareimpactingplantingactivitiesandareforecasttocontinueforthenextseveralmonths(SeeRegionalOutlookPg.15).InHaiti,persistingrainfalldeficitsandhightemperaturescontinuetonegativelyimpactPrintempsseasoncropdevelopment.

EASTAFRICA:InEthiopia,conditionsaremostlyfavourablefor

bothBelgandMeherseasoncerealsdespiterecentheavyrainsand

floodinginsomeareas.Inthesouth,plantinganddevelopmentof

mainseasoncerealscontinuesundermixedconditionswith

concerninareasofcentralUganda,central-easternKenya,

northwestandcentralSomalia,andnorthandcentralpartsofthe

UnitedRepublicofTanzaniaimpactedbydryconditions.Below-

normalrainfallisforecastinwesternequatorialareasandsouthern-

centralEthiopiafortheJunetoAugustperiod(SeeRegional

OutlookPg.6).

WESTAFRICA:Plantinganddevelopmentofmainseasoncereals

isunderwayinmostregionsundergenerallyfavourableagro-

climaticconditionsexceptincentralMaliandGuinea-Bissauwhere

delayedrainfallonsetisimpactingplantingactivities.Additionally,

conflictcontinuestoimpactagriculturalactivitiesinpartsofMali,

Nigeria,Cameroon,andtheCentralAfricanRepublic.

MIDDLEEAST&NORTHAFRICA:Wheatharvestingisramping

up,andoverallconditionsremainmixedwithbelow-averageyields

expectedinpartsofMorocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Syria,andIraq.In

Syria,improvedrainshaveledtoabove-averagecropbiomass

acrossthecountry,butconcernremainsduetopersistentconflict

andsocio-economicchallenges.

SOUTHERNAFRICA:Harvestingofmainseasoncerealsis

completeornearingcompletioninallregionsundermixed

conditions.CropfailureresultedinsouthernMalawiduetoimpacts

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GlobalClimateOutlook:Two-weekForecastofAreaswithAboveorBelow-AveragePrecipitation

Thetwo-weekforecast(Figure1)indicatesalikelihoodofabove-averagerainfalloverthewesternUS,Portugal,Spain,southernFrance,Italy,BosniaandHerzegovina,Albania,NorthMacedonia,Greece,Türkiye,Georgia,Armenia,northernMorocco,northernAlgeria,Liberia,Côted'Ivoire,Mali,BurkinaFaso,Ghana,Togo,Benin,Niger,Nigeria,Chad,Sudan,Gabon,northwesternIran,centralMongolia,andthenorthernPhilippines.

Thereisalsoalikelihoodofbelow-averagerainfalloverthePrairiesandEasternCanada,westernandsouthernMexico,Guatemala,Guyana,Suriname,FrenchGuiana,northernandcentralBrazil,Ireland,theUnitedKingdom,Belgium,Netherlands,northernGermany,southernDenmark,Norway,Sweden,Finland,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,northernPoland,Belarus,northwestandcentralRussianFederation,easternSouthSudan,centralEthiopia,Uganda,westernKenya,theeasternDemocraticRepublicofCongo,southernMadagascar,westernKazakhstan,easternUzbekistan,westernTajikistan,northeasternAfghanistan,India,Nepal,Bangladesh,easternMongolia,centralandnortheastChina,theRepublicofKorea,southernJapan,southernPhilippines,Malaysia,andIndonesia.

Figure1.IRISubXPrecipitationBiweeklyProbabilityForecastfor3–16June2023,issuedon26May2023.TheforecastisbasedonstatisticallycalibratedtercilecategoryforecastsfromthreeSubXmodels.Source:

IRISubseasonalForecastsMaproom

ClimateInfluences:ENSOcurrentlyinneutralstatewithalikelihoodofElNiñoandpositiveIODconditionsdevelopingduringJunetoSeptemberTheElNiño-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)iscurrentlyinaneutralstate.ElNiñoconditionsareforecasttodevelopduringthenextseveralmonthsandcontinueinto2024.AccordingtotheIRI/CPCforecast,thereisarounda90%chanceofElNiñoconditionsdevelopingduringJunetoSeptember,andtheseoddsremainhighthroughDecember2023toFebruary2024(>90%chance).Modelspredictthat,ifthisElNiñoeventdevelops,itwilllikelybeamoderateorstrongeventbyitspeakduringthenorthernhemispherefallandwinter.

ElNiñoeventstendtoenhancerainfallinCentralAsia,southernNorthAmerica,south-easternSouthAmerica,southernEurope,easternandsouthernEastAfrica,andsouthernandeasternChina.Drier-than-averageconditionstendtooccurinCentralAmerica,theCaribbean,northernSouthAmerica,partsofwesternandnorthernEastAfrica,SouthernAfrica,India,NorthernChina,theMaritimeContinent,andAustralia.

PositiveIndianOceanDipole(IOD)conditionsmayalsodevelopduringJunetoOctober,accordingtotheAustralianBureauofMeteorologyforecast.PositiveIODconditionscanenhanceElNiño-relateddryinginfluencesinAustraliaandtheMaritimeContinent,andwettinginfluencesduringtheEastAfricashortrains.Source:UCSBClimateHazardsCenter

Figure1.AreasofdryandwetconditionsduringElNiñophaseofENSO.Source:

NOAA&CHC&FEWSNET

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EastAfrica

CropconditionmapsynthesizingMaize1cropconditionsasofMay28th.Cropconditionsoverthemaingrowingareasarebasedonacombinationofinputsincludingremotelysenseddata,groundobservations,fieldreports,national,andregionalexperts.Conditionsthatareotherthanfavourablearelabeledonthemapwiththeirdriver.

Acrossthenorthofthesubregion,plantinganddevelopmentofmainseasoncerealsisunderwayinSouthSudanandYemenwithconcernintheCentralandWesternEquatoriaregionsofSouthSudanduetodryconditionsandthroughoutSouthSudanandYemenduetoongoingconflictandsocio-economicchallenges.InEthiopia,BelgseasonmaizecropsareinvegetativetoreproductivestageforharvestfromJunewhileplantingofMeherseasoncerealsisunderway,andconditionsaremostlyfavourableforbothBelgandMehercropsdespiterecentheavyrainsthatresultedinfloodinginSomali,Oromia,andAfarregions.

Acrossthesouthofthesubregion,mainseasoncerealscontinuetodevelopinUganda,Kenya,Rwanda,Burundi,Somalia,andtheUnitedRepublicofTanzaniaundergenerallymixedconditionswithsomeimprovementduetoenhancedrains.However,thereisconcerninareasimpactedbydryconditions,includingcentralUganda,central-easternKenya,northwestandcentralSomalia,andnorthandcentralpartsoftheUnitedRepublicofTanzania.ThereisalsoconcerninsouthernSomaliawhereheavyrainssinceMarchthroughMayhasresultedinwidespreadfloodingalongtheShabelleandJubariverineareas,andheavyrainfallinearlyMayimpactedthewesternRift.TheMay24Statementfromthe64thGreaterHornofAfricaClimateOutlookForum(GHACOF64)JunetoSeptember(JJAS)rainfallforecastindicatesahigherlikelihoodofdryconditionsinseveralareas,includingDjibouti,Eritrea,centralandnorthernEthiopia,westernKenya,northernUganda,SouthSudan,andSudan.Conversely,coastalregionsofKenya,partsofSomalia,isolatedareasineasternEthiopia,southernUganda,andareasalongtheEthiopiaandSudanborderarelikelytoexperiencewetterthanaverageconditions(SeeRegionalOutlookPg.6).

FordetaileddescriptionofthepiechartpleaseseedescriptionboxonPg.16.

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CropconditionmapsynthesizingMaize2conditionsasofMay28th.Cropconditionsoverthemaingrowingareasarebasedonacombinationofinputsincludingremotelysenseddata,groundobservations,fieldreports,national,andregionalexperts.Conditionsthatareotherthanfavourablearelabeledonthemapwiththeirdriver.

NorthernEastAfrica&Yemen

InEthiopia,BelgseasonmaizecropsareinvegetativetoreproductivestagewhileplantingofMeherseasoncerealsisnowunderway,andconditionsremaingenerallyfavourableduetogoodrainsreceived.However,residualsocio-economicchallengesrelatedtothepriorconflictsituationcontinuetoimpactagriculturalactivitiesinTigrayregionandotherlocalizedareas.Additionally,heavyrainfallandsignificantfloodingoccurredinsomeareasfrommid-March(SeeRegionalOutlookPg.6).IntheSomaliregion,floodscausedthedestructionofapproximately99,713hectaresoffarmlandandthedeathsof23,306livestock,accordingtodatafromtheDisasterRiskManagementBureau,impactingtheregion'sagriculturalsectorandprimarylivelihoods.ThefloodsalsocausedsignificantdamagetocropsinOromiaregionandresultedinlivestocklossesinSNNPRregion.InSouthSudan,

plantingoffirstseasoncerealscontinuesundermixedconditionswithconcerninCentralandWesternEquatoriaareasduetoexpandingdryconditions.Concernalsoremainsthroughoutthecountryduetosocio-economicissuesrelatingtoagriculturalinputaccessaswellasongoingpocketsofconflict,includingintheNileSobatregionlocatedinthenortheast.InYemen,plantingofsorghumcropscontinuesunderfavourableagro-climaticconditions.However,socio-economicchallengesrelatingtoconflictcontinuetoimpactagriculturalactivitiesthroughoutthecountry.Additionally,heavyrainfallinearlyAprilresultedinfloodingalonglocalizedareasofthesouth,centre,andwest.FurtherheavyrainfallinearlyMayfloodedfieldsandresultedinlargedamfailures.

SouthernEastAfrica

InUganda,developmentoffirstseasoncerealscontinuesundermixedconditions.Conditionsinthecentralregionaredrierthanaveragecomparedtotherestofthecountry,andthereisconcerninKaramojaregionlocatedinthenortheastwhererecentconflictandrelatedsocio-economicissuesareimpactingplanting.InKenya,developmentofLongRainscerealscontinuesinallregionsundergenerallyfavourableconditionsexceptintheminorbimodalcentral-easternareawhereongoingdryconditionsareimpactingcrops.Additionally,southeasternareasofthecountryalongthecoastreceivedlittletonorainfallinMarch,andlimitedrainsthroughMaycouldshortenthegrowingperiodiftherainsdonotpickup.InRwanda,SeasonBmaizecropscontinuetodevelopunderfavourableconditions,andharvestingwillbegininJune.InBurundi,SeasonBmaizeandricecropsaredevelopingunderfavourableconditionsforharvestfromJuly.InSomalia,Guseasonmaizeandsorghumcropsareinvegetativetoreproductivestageforharvestfrommid-JulywithconcerninthewestandcentrewheredryconditionsareimpactingcropdevelopmentandinthesouthernShabelleandJubariverineareasimpactedbyflooding.TheApriltoJuneGurainsstartedearlierthanusualwithslighttomoderaterainsinMarchwhichintensifiedinApril.TheearlystarttotherainsincombinationwithwaterflowsfromheavyrainsintheEthiopianhighlandsresultedinfloodinginmanyareas,includingBardhere,Hirshabelle,Galmudug,Puntland,SouthWestState,Mogadishu,andthebroaderBanadirregion.InnorthernbimodalareasoftheUnitedRepublicofTanzania,harvestingofMasikaseasoncerealsisunderwaywhileVuliseasonsorghumcropscontinuetodevelop,andconcernremainsduetoongoingdryconditions.Incentralandsouthernunimodalareas,harvestingofMasikaseasoncerealsisnearingcompletionundermixedconditionsduetopersistentdrynessinthecentrewherebelow-averageyieldsareexpected.Whilesomeareasinthenorthandcentrereceivedrecentfavourablerainsthatimprovedsoilmoisture,below-averagerainfallperformanceinMaycouldaffectgrowingconditions.

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RegionalOutlook:MixedrainfalllikelytocontinueacrosstheregionwithrainfalldeficitsexpectedacrosspartsofKenya,Uganda,SouthSudan,andEthiopia

Duringrecentweeks,betweenApril21standMay20th,conditionswerewetterthanaverageincentralandnortheasternEthiopia,acrossmostpartsofKenya(central,northern,easternandcoastalKenya),southwesternandnorthwesternSomalia,andinnortheasternandwesternTanzania.ConditionsweredrierthanaverageinnorthwesternareasoftheregionandinsoutheasternandcentralSomalia(Figure1-left).

RainfalltotalsforMarchtoearlyJunewilllikelybemixed,withprominentsurplusareasinKenyaandEthiopia,andbelow-averagetotalsinsomewesternandeasternareas,basedonpreliminarydataforMay1-20thandatwo-weekunbiasedGEFSforecast(Figure1middle-left).SeasonalrainfallhasbeenirregularlydistributedinportionsofcentralandsouthernSomalia,withhighrainfallinMarchandlateApril,andmulti-weekperiodsofdrierconditions,includingseveralweeksofbelow-averagerainfallinMay.

Duringthenexttwoweeks,forecastbelow-averagerainfallinwesternequatorialareasandSouthSudanisofsomeconcern,asconditionsweredrierthanaverageearlierinMay.Thiscouldresultinalengthydryspell,ormoresubstantialseasonalrainfalldeficitsifpessimisticforecastsforJunetoSeptemberalsomaterialize.

Forecastabove-averagerainfallintheEthiopianHighlandsandcentralandnortheasternSomaliaduringlateMayraisesconcernsforcontinuedelevatedfloodriskslocallyandinareasalongtheShabelleRiver.RiverlevelsareclosetobankfulllevelinBuloBurti,asofMay24th,accordingtoFAOSWALIM,anddestructivefloodingoccurredinBeletWeyneearlierinMay.FloodandlandslideriskswilllikelyremainhighinmanylocationsofcentralandnortheasternEthiopia,wherehighlyabove-averagerainfalloccurredinthepasttwomonths.Basedonpreliminarydata,March1sttoMay20thrainfalltotalsareamongthe

wettestontheCHIRPS

record

insomeoftheselocations,aswellasinportionsofnorthernKenyaandsouthwesternSomalia.Above-averagerainfallisalsoforecastthroughearlyJuneinnorthernSomalia,coastalKenya,northeasternTanzania,andwesternSudan.

RainfalldeficitsarelikelytobeanongoingconcernduringJune,July,andAugust,forcroppingareasinwesternKenya,northernandsouthwesternUganda,SouthSudan,andsouthwestern,central,andnorthernEthiopia.TheGHACOF64forecastforJunetoSeptember(JJAS)rainfall(Figure1middle-right)shows40to55%chancesofbelow-normalrainfallinmanyoftheseareas.Othermulti-modelensembleforecasts,e.g.theWMO(Figure1-right),NMME,andC3S,arealsopessimisticforJunetoAugust,particularlyforwesternequatorialareasandsouthern-centralEthiopia.Below-normalrainfallhaspreviouslyoccurredintheseareasduringconcurrentElNiñoconditions,whichareforecasttodevelop.

Monitoringofpotentialagriculturalheatandwaterstressisrecommended.Manyareaswilllikelyexperienceabove-normaltemperaturesduringthenextseveralmonths,accordingtohighlyconfidentmodelforecasts.AccordingtotheGHACOFJJASforecast,“probabilitiesforwarmerthanaveragetemperaturesaremostenhancedovernorthernSudan,partsofsouthernandcentraltowesternEthiopia,centralandnorthernKenya,centralandnorthernSomalia,andcoastalpartsofTanzania.”

Multipleinternationalmodelforecastsareindicatingabove-normalrainfallduringSeptembertoDecemberineasternareas(ClimateInfluencesPg.3),associatedwithforecastElNiñoandpositiveIndianOceanDipoleconditions.Thesetendtoenhancerainfallineasternandsouthernareasoftheregion.

Figure1.Arecentrainfallanomaly,aseasonalrainfallanomalyoutlook,4-monthand3-monthprobabilisticrainfallforecasts.Theleftandmiddle-leftpanelsareCHCEarlyEstimates,whichcomparecurrentprecipitationtotalstothe1981-2022CHIRPSaverageforrespectiveaccumulationperiods.TheseshowthepercentofaverageprecipitationforApr.21sttoMay20th,2023(left),andforMar.1sttoJun.5th(middle-left).BothpanelsuseCHIRPSPrelimforMay1stto20th.Themiddle-leftpanelalsoincludesaCHIRPS-GEFSforecastforMay21st-Jun.5th.Themiddle-rightpanelisan

IGADClimatePredictionandApplicationsCentre(ICPAC)

probabilisticforecastforJune-to-September2023precipitation.Theright-mostpanelisaWMOprobabilisticforecastforJune-to-August2023precipitation,basedonmodelsinitializedinMay.ThisimageisfromtheWMOLeadCentreLong-RangeForecastMulti-ModelEnsemble.Source:UCSBClimateHazardsCenter

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WestAfrica

CropconditionmapsynthesizingcropconditionsasofMay28th.Cropconditionsoverthemaingrowingareasarebasedonacombinationofinputsincludingremotelysenseddata,groundobservations,fieldreports,national,andregionalexperts.Cropsthatareinotherthanfavourableconditionsarelabeledonthemapwiththeirdriver.

InWestAfrica,plantingofmainseasoncerealsisunderwayinbimodalandSoudano-GuineanzoneswithlocalizedareasenteringthevegetativetoreproductivestageinCoted’ivoire,Ghana,Benin,Togo,Nigeria,andCameroon.HarvestingofsecondseasonricefinalizedinMauritaniawhileplantingisunderwayincentralNigeria.Agro-climaticconditionsremainfavourableforcropdevelopmentthroughoutthesubregionexceptincentralMaliandGuinea-Bissauwheredelayedrainfallonsetisdelayingplantingactivities.Additionally,persistentconflictcontinuestoimpactagriculturalactivitiesincentralMali,northeasternNigeria,southwesternCameroon,andtheCentralAfricanRepublic.Ongoingsocio-economicchallengesrelatingtolimitedresourcescontinuetoimpactagriculturalproductioninnorthandnorth-centralNigeria.Additionally,basedonCHIRPStotalrainfallfromApril1sttoMay20th,thesouthernpartofthesubregionfromsouthernGuineatotheCentralAfricanRepublichasreceivedtotalsrangingfrom100mmtomorethan400mmineasternLiberiaandsouthwesternCameroon.Conversely,rainfalltotalsarelessthan75mmintheSahelianband.

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MiddleEast&NorthAfrica

CropconditionmapsynthesizingwheatconditionsasofMay28th.Cropconditionsoverthemaingrowingareasarebasedonacombinationofinputsincludingremotelysenseddata,groundobservations,fieldreports,national,andregionalexperts.Cropsthatareinotherthanfavourableconditionsarelabeledonthemapwiththeirdriver.

IntheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,wheatharvestinghasstartedinMorocco,Tunisia,andEgyptwhilecropscontinuetodevelopelsewhereinthesubregion.Cropconditionsremainmixedwithbelow-averageyieldsexpectedinlargeareasofMorocco,mostofAlgeriaandTunisia,northeasternSyria,andnorthwesternIraq.NeartotalcropfailureisexpectedinlocalizedareasofnortheasternMorocco,northernAlgeria,andnorth-centralTunisiaduetopersistentseasonaldroughtandhightemperatures.Furthermore,concernremainsthroughoutLibyaandSyriawhereongoingconflictandsocio-economicchallengescontinuetoimpactcropoutcomes.Conversely,yieldsareexpectedtobenear-averageinEgyptduetosufficientirrigationwatersupply,andconditionsremainfavourableinmostpartsofIraqandIran.

InMorocco,wheatprospectsremainpoorduetoacombinationofseasonaldroughtandabove-averagetemperaturesthathaveadverselyaffectedthevegetativetoreproductivestages,acceleratingcropsenescence.TheOrientalregionlocatedinthenortheastisthemostaffected,withcropfailurelikelyacrossmuchoftheregion.Althoughyieldandtotalproductionprospectsarepoor,being17percentand25percentbelowthefive-yearaveragerespectively,theyarenotassevereastheresultsobservedinthepreviousseason,accordingtotheMay22JRCMARSBulletin.InAlgeria,prolongeddroughtandhightemperaturescontinuetoadverselyaffectthemajorityofthecerealproducingregions,exceptinthenortheast,andhaveimpactedcropsduringthecriticalfloweringandgrain-fillingdevelopmentstages.RainfallhasbeenlimitedsincethestartofMarch,withmostregionsexperiencingrecordlowrainfallaccumulations.Temperatureshavebeenconsistentlyabovethelong-termaverage,particularlyinwesternareasduringlate-April.Someregions,suchasMascara,Saida,OumElBouaghi,Khenchela,andTebessa,facethesignificantpossibilityofcompletecropfailure.Bothyieldandproductionareforecasttobewellbelowthefive-yearaverageat24and45percentlowerrespectively,accordingtotheMay22JRCMARSBulletin.InTunisia,wheatcropshavebeenseverelyaffectedbypersistentdroughtconditions,withrainfalloccurringonlyinsporadicandlow-intensityevents,mostlyinearlyMarchandthestartofApril.Cumulativeprecipitationwasthelowestonrecordinmostcentralandnorthernregionswherethemajorityofcerealproductionoccurs,resultinginrainfalldeficitsrangingfrom65to80percentbelowthelong-termaverage.RegionssuchasElKef,Siliana,andZaghouanfaceahighprobabilityofcropfailure,whileallotherregions,exceptBizerte,haveobservedbelow-averagebiomassaccumulation.Yieldisforecasttobe19percentbelowthefive-yearave