韩国央行（BOK）：韩国货币政策报告摘要2023年9月

ExecutiveSummary

[RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments]

“AlookateconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsathomeandabroadbetweenJuneandAugust2023findsthefollowing.Eventhoughmanufacturingsectorsweresluggish,globaleconomicgrowthwasrunningabovetheexpectationparticularlyinadvancedeconomies,thankstothesustainedfavorablegrowthinservicesectors.IntheUnitedStates,steadyincreaseinserviceconsumption,coupledwithareboundinprivateinvestment,resultedinhigher-than-expectedeconomicgrowth.Intheeuroarea,evenwiththecontinuedsluggishnessinmanufacturingsectors,theeconomyshowedaslightgrowth,mainlydrivenbytherecoveryinservicesectors,includingtourismindustry.TheChineseeconomyhasbeenexperiencingaweakeningrecoverymomentumsincethesecondquarter,duetothedownturnintherealestatemarketandweakexternaldemand.TheJapaneseeconomysawanexpansioninitsrecovery,astheslumpingoodsexports,includingautomobiles,wasmoderating,andserviceexportsimprovedwithincreasingnumberofforeigntourists.

Globalinflationhadbeenstabilizingquickly,buthasexperiencedaslowerdeclinesinceAugust,owingtorisingenergyprices.Coreinflationremainedatahighlevel,drivenbytightlabormarketconditionsandsolidserviceconsumption.

Intheinternationalfinancialmarkets,therehadbeenacontinuedpreferenceforriskyassets,drivenbyfactorssuchastheresolutionofdebtceiling

i

ExecutiveSummary

Economicgrowthinmajoreconomies

8

6

4

2

0

-2

U.S.(left)

Japan(left)(QoQ,%)

Euroarea(left)

China(right)

(YoY,%)

20

15

10

5

0

-5

21.IIII22.IIII23.I

Sources:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA),Eurostat,Statistics

BureauofJapan,NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.

Consumerpriceinflationinmajoreconomies

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

U.S.

Japan

Euroarea

China

(YoY,%)

(YoY,%)

20.1721.1722.1723.17

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Sources:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(BLS),Eurostat,StatisticsBureau

ofJapan,NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.

ii

U.S.interestrate,globalstockpriceindexanddollarindex

130

120

110

100

90

80

MSCIGlobalMarketsIndex1)(left)

DXYIndex(left)

U.S.TreasuryNote(10-year)yield(right)(%)

5

4

3

2

1

0

21.1722.1723.17

Note:1)January1,2021=100.

Source:Bloomberg.

RealGDPgrowth1)

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

QoQ(left)YoY(right)

(%)

(%)

20.IIII21.IIII22.IIII23.I

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Note:1)Reflectspreliminaryfiguresfor2022and2023.

Source:BankofKorea.

negotiationsandexpectationsofasoftlandingintheU.S.economy.However,sincelateJuly,volatilityhasgraduallyincreasedduetorisingU.S.TreasurybondyieldsandgrowingconcernsaboutrisksrelatedtoChina.TheU.S.Treasurybondyieldshasshownslightfluctuations,thenrosesignificantly,influencedbyexpectationsoftheprolongedmonetarytighteningstancebytheU.S.FederalReserveandgrowingexpectationsofasoftlandingintheU.S.economy.Globalstockpriceshadcontinuedtorise,drivenbyfavorableeconomicgrowthinadvancedeconomiesandthestrongcorporateearningbutthendeclinedduetovaluationpressurestemmingfromrisinglong-terminterestratesandtoconcernsaboutaslowdownintheChineseeconomy.TheU.S.dollarhadweakened,asinflationindicatorsfellbelowexpectations,thenturnedstrongagain,drivenbysolideconomicindicatorsintheU.S.andloweredexpectationsfor

additionaltighteningbyECBandBOE.

ThetrendofrecoveryinKoreaneconomyslowedsomewhat,particularlyindomesticdemand.Asthecontributionofnetexportsincreased,realGDPgrowthinthesecondquarterwentupby0.6%fromtheprecedingquarter(+0.9%year-on-year).Bysector,privateconsumptiondecreasedduetoweakendedpent-updemandandtemporaryfactorssuchasfrequentrainfall.Meanwhile,facilitiesinvestmentincreased,withITequipmentinvestmentshowingaslightreboundafterexperiencingsignificantcontractionearlierthisyear.Exportscontinuedtodecline,influencedbyfactorssuchasthedownturninthesemiconductorindustryandweakenedrecoveryintheChineseeconomy.However,theextentofthedeclinehasmoderated.

SinceJuly,consumptionandinvestmenthavedecreasedduetodeterioratingweatherconditionsandthestagnationintheglobalmanufacturingindustry,whilethesluggishnessinexportshavebeenalleviated.

Whileemploymentconditionsremainedfavorableoverall,thepaceofgrowthinthenumberofpersonsemployedhascontinuedtoslowmoderately.InJuly,thenumberofpersonsemployedinthemanufacturingindustrycontinuedtodecreaseduetolacklusterexports,butthenumberofpersonsemployedintheserviceindustrysustainedastrongupwardtrajectory,ledbytheface-to-faceandhealth&welfareservices.Nominalwagesincreasedby2.9%year-on-yearinthesecondquarter,markingaslowdownintheupwardtrend.

ConsumerpriceinflationhadbeensustainingitsslowingtrendsinceJulylastyearanddeclinedtothe2%rangeduringJuneandJulythisyear.However,itreboundedto3.4%inAugust,drivensignificantlybybaseeffectandrapidsurgeinpetroleumandagriculturalproductprices.CoreinflationhadconsiderablydeclinedinJuneandcontinuedtoslowatamoderatepacesincethen,astheupwardmomentumofpersonalservicepricesgraduallyweakened.Meanwhile,short-terminflationexpectationsofhouseholdshavecontinuedtofallsinceMarch,reachingthelow-andmid-3%levelinthethirdquarter.

Nationwidehousingsalepricesshowedsmallerdeclinesfromthisyear,influencedbygovernment’shousingmarketstabilizationmeasuresandloweredlendingratesfornewloanscomparedtothe

beginningofthisyear,thenturnedtoanincreasein

ofpersonsemployedandnominal

Changesinnumber

wagegrowth1)

Growthrateofnominalwage(left)

Changesinthenumberofpersonsemployed(right)

(YoY,

%)

tenthousandpersons)

(YoY,

8

125

7

100

6

5

75

50

4

25

3

0

2

1

-25

-50

0

-75

-1

-2

-100

-125

20.1721.1722.1723.17

Note:1)Nominalwagegrowthisbasedonquarterlydata.

Sources:StatisticsKorea,MinistryofEmploymentandLabor.

Inflation1)

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

CPIinflation

Coreinflation2)

(YoY,%)

Inflationexpectationsofhouseholds3)

(YoY,%)

20.1721.1722.1723.17

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Notes:1)Theboldlineindicatestheinflationtarget.

2)Excludingfoodandenergy.

3)Expectationsfortheconsumerpriceinflationrateoverthenext12months.

Sources:BankofKorea,StatisticsKorea.

Housingsalesandleasehold(jeonse)depositpricesrateofincreaseandhousingpriceforecastCSI

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Rateofincreaseinhousingsaleprices(left)

Rateofincreaseinleaseholddepositprices(left)HousingpriceforecastCSI(right)

(MoM,%)

21.1722.1723.17

130

115

100

85

70

55

Sources:BankofKorea,KoreaRealEstateBoard.

iii

Executive

Summary

iv

July.SentimentindicatorsincludinghousingpriceforecastCSI(ConsumerSentimentIndex)hascontinuedtorise,surpassingthebenchmarklevel(100)inthesecondhalfofthisyear.Nationwideleaseholddeposit(jeonse)pricesalsohaveshownsmallerdeclinessincethisyear,aslendingratesdeclined.

Domesticinterestrates,stockpricesandexchangerates

Yields

Stockpricesand

exchangerates

6

5

4

3

2

1

KoreaTreasuryBonds(3-year)

Corporatebonds(AA-,3-year)CP(91-day)

(%)(%)

6

5

4

3

2

1

22.1723.17

KOSPI(left)

KRWperUSD(right)

(Jan4,1980=100)(KRW/USD)

3,200

3,000

2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

22.1723.17

1,450

1,400

1,350

1,300

1,250

1,200

1,150

Sources:BankofKorea,KoreaFinancialInvestmentAssociation,KoscomCorporation.

Changesinloansbydeposit-takingbanks1)2)

30

20

10

0

-10

Corporateloans

(MoM,trillionwon)

Householdloans

(MoM,trillionwon)

21.1722.1723.17

30

20

10

0

-10

Notes:1)IncludingmortgagetransfersbyKoreaHousingFinanceCorporation.

2)FiguresforJuly2023arebasedonBankofKoreaadvancedestimate.

Source:BankofKorea.

。Indomesticfinancialandforeignexchangemarkets,TreasurybondyieldsincreasedconsiderablyandtheKoreanwon/U.S.dollarexchangeratefluctuated,duetotheexpectationsofstrengthenedandprolongedmonetarypolicytighteningbytheU.S.FederalReserve.InJuly,theinterestrateandexchangeratedecreasedastheinflationinmajoreconomiesdecelerated.However,sincelateJuly,growingexpectationsthatthetighteningstanceoftheU.S.FederalReservewouldbecomeprotractedandworriesaboutthesupplyofU.S.TreasurybondshaveledtoasignificantincreaseintheU.S.Treasurybondyields,resultinginsubstantialriseinKoreaTreasuryBondyieldsaswell.Theexchangeratehasalsorisenconsiderably,duetothefactorssuchasstrongU.S.dollarandgrowingconcernsovertheChineseeconomy.

Meanwhile,growthinhouseholdlendinghasbeenexpanding,drivenbypolicysupportsincludingSpecialBogeumjariLoan,easedloanregulations,anddemandforfundsrelatedtohousingpurchasessinceithadshiftedtoanincreaseinthesecondquarter.Corporatelending,followinganincreaseinthesecondquarter,alsosawasignificantexpansioninJuly.Asforlendingtolargecorporationsinparticular,theexpansionwasattributedtocorporate

demandforworkingcapitalanddebtfinancing.

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.5

0.0

Directcorporatefinancingshiftedtoanet

v

redemptioninthesecondquarter,ledby

corporatebonds.Inthecaseofcorporatebonds,Executive

Summary

thevolumeofissuancedecreased,assome

companiessecuredrefinancingfundsinadvance

andexpandedtheirfundingthroughbankloans.

[MonetaryPolicyImplementation]

TheBankofKoreamaintainedtherestrictivepolicystancewithanemphasisonensuringpricestabilityinordertostabilizeconsumerpriceinflationatthetargetlevel(2%)overthemedium-termhorizonasitmonitoredeconomicgrowth,whilepayingattentiontofinancialstability.Inthisprocess,theBankthoroughlyassessedthepaceofinflationslowdown,financialstabilityrisks,downsideriskstogrowth,monetarypolicychangesinmajorcountries,andhouseholddebtgrowth,maintainingtheBaseRateat3.50%.

TheBankofKoreadecidedtoleavetheBaseRateunchangedat3.50%inJuly,asinflationwasforecasttobeabovethetargetlevelforaconsiderabletimealthoughithadcontinuedtoslow.Inaddition,thedecisionwasalsobasedonthejudgmentthatuncertaintiesregardingmonetarypolicyinmajorcountriesstillremained,anditwasnecessarytomonitorhouseholddebttrends.

BankofKoreaBaseRate1)

(%)

(Jan.23)(Nov.22)

(Oct.22)

(Aug.22)

(Jul.22)

(May22)

(Apr.22)

(Jan.22)

(Nov.21)

(Aug.21)

22.1

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.0

0.5

0.0

21.1

23.1

(%)

7

7

7

Note:1)FiguresinparenthesesrefertothemonthsofBaseRate

adjustments

Source:BankofKorea.

TheBaseRatewasalsomaintainedat3.50%in

August.Althoughinflationhadcontinuedtoslow,it

wasforecastthattherewouldbeaconsiderable

periodoftimebeforeinflationconvergesonthe

targetlevel,anduncertaintiesregardingmonetary

policyandeconomicconditionsinmajorcountries

vi

CeilingandinterestratesofBankIntermediatedLendingSupportFacility1)

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Ceiling(left)(trillionwon)

Interestrates(right)

(%)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Note:1)Shadedarearepresentsthetimeframewhereinterestrates

weredifferentforeachprogram.

Source:BankofKorea.

increased.Itwasalsonecessarytocloselymonitorhouseholddebttrends.TheBank,therefore,deemedthatitwasappropriatetomaintainitscurrentrestrictivepolicystance.

TheBankofKoreaisusingvariouspolicyinstrumentstopromotesmoothcreditflowsandstabilityinfinancialandforeignexchangemarkets.AsfortheBankIntermediatedLendingSupportFacility,ceilingsforeachprogramareasfollows:1.5trillionwonforTradeFinancing,13trillionwonforNewGrowthEngineDevelopmentandJobCreation,0.3trillionwonforStabilizationofSMELending,5.9trillionwonforRegionalSMEs,13trillionwonforSMEsAffectedbyCOVID-19,and6trillionwonforSmallBusinesses.Thetotalceilingis39.8trillionwonincluding0.1trillionwoninceilingreserves.

Meanwhile,theBankofKoreareformeditslendingfacilityinawaytostrengthenitsroleasaliquiditybackstopfordepositoryinstitutions.Forbanks,itadjustedthelendingratesandtherangeofeligiblecollateralforLiquidityAdjustmentLoans,oneofregularlendingfacilitiesoftheBankofKoreacurrently,toalleviatethenegativeperceptionsaboutbanksusingthisfacilityandtoenhancetheiraccesstothefacility.Inparticular,therangeofeligiblecollateralwasexpandedtoincludemunicipalbonds,bondsissuedbypublicinstitution,andprimecorporatebonds,whichgreatlyincreasedtheavailablelendingresources.Inaddition,theBankplanstopursuewaystoaddloansreceivableheldbybankstothelistofeligiblecollateralforlendingandtoreviewwhethertoincludeloansreceivablebynon-bankdepositoryinstitutionstotherangeofeligiblecollateralifinstitutionalconditionsaremet.

[PolicyConsiderationsandOutlook]

vii

ExecutiveSummary

TheKoreaneconomicgrowthisexpectedto

improvegraduallywithamodestrecoveryin

consumption,areboundintheITsectorandthe

influxofChinesetourists.Accordingly,Korea’sreal

GDPgrowthisprojectedtobe1.4%in2023and

2.2%in2024.Privateconsumptionwillcontinueto

recover,butthepaceofrecoveryisforecasttobe

limitedduetoincreaseddebtserviceburdenof

householdsanduncertaintiessurroundingexternal

conditions.Facilitiesandconstructioninvestmentsare

projectedtobesluggishduetodelayed

improvementinglobalmanufacturingsectorand

declinesincommencementofnewconstructions,

respectively.Exportswillshowaslowrecoveryfor

sometime,butareprojectedtoexhibitvisible

improvementasthesemiconductorindustryrecovers

towardtheendofthisyear.Uncertaintiesremain

elevatedregardingthegrowthforecastpathdueto

factorssuc