版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
and
Profitable
Pathway
to
APurposeful
ABetterTomorrowTM
OurNewCategoryJourney
1
Classified-Confidential
2
ImportantInformation
TheinformationcontainedinthispresentationinrelationtoBritishAmericanTobaccop.l.c.(“BAT”)anditssubsidiarieshasbeenpreparedsolelyforuseatthispresentation.Thepresentationisnotdirectedto,orintendedfordistributiontooruseby,anypersonorentitythatisacitizenorresidentorlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistribution,publication,availabilityorusewouldbecontrarytolaworregulationorwhichwouldrequireanyregistrationorlicensingwithinsuchjurisdiction.
Referencesinthispresentationto‘BritishAmericanTobacco’,‘BAT’,‘Group’,‘we’,‘us’and‘our’whendenotingopinionrefertoBritishAmericanTobaccop.l.c.andwhendenotingbusinessactivityrefertoBritishAmericanTobaccoGroupoperatingcompanies,collectivelyorindividuallyasthecasemaybe.
Theinformationcontainedinthispresentationdoesnotpurporttobecomprehensiveandhasnotbeenindependentlyverified.Certainindustryandmarketdatacontainedinthispresentationhascomefromthirdpartysources.Thirdpartypublications,studiesandsurveysgenerallystatethatthedatacontainedthereinhavebeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butthatthereisnoguaranteeofaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchdata.
Forward-lookingStatements
Thispresentationdoesnotconstituteaninvitationtounderwrite,subscribefor,orotherwiseacquireordisposeofanyBATsharesorothersecurities.Thispresentationcontainscertainforward-lookingstatements,including“forward-looking”statementsmadewithinthemeaningoftheU.S.PrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995.Thesestatementsareoften,butnotalways,madethroughtheuseofwordsorphrasessuchas"believe,""anticipate,""could,""may,""would,""should,""intend,""plan,""potential,""predict,""will,""expect,""estimate,""project,""positioned,""strategy,""outlook","target"andsimilarexpressions.Theseincludestatementsregardingourintentions,beliefsorcurrentexpectationsconcerning,amongstotherthings,ourresultsofoperations,financialcondition,liquidity,prospects,growth,strategiesandtheeconomicandbusinesscircumstancesoccurringfromtimetotimeinthecountriesandmarketsinwhichtheBritishAmericanTobaccoGroup(the“Group”)operates.
Allsuchforward-lookingstatementsinvolveestimatesandassumptionsthataresubjecttorisks,uncertaintiesandotherfactors.Itisbelievedthattheexpectationsreflectedinthispresentationarereasonablebuttheymaybeaffectedbyawiderangeofvariablesthatcouldcauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthosecurrentlyanticipated.
Inparticular,amongotherstatements:certainstatementsonslides5,6,17,27and33.
Amongthekeyfactorsthatcouldcauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseprojectedintheforward-lookingstatementsareuncertaintiesrelatedtothefollowing:theimpactofcompetitionfromillicittrade;theimpactofadversedomesticorinternationallegislationandregulation;theinabilitytodevelop,commercialiseanddelivertheGroup'sNewCategoriesstrategy;adverselitigationanddisputeoutcomesandtheeffectofsuchoutcomesontheGroup'sfinancialcondition;theimpactofsignificantincreasesorstructuralchangesintobacco,nicotineandNewCategoriesrelatedtaxes;translationalandtransactionalforeignexchangerateexposure;changesordifferencesindomesticorinternationaleconomicorpoliticalconditions;theabilitytomaintaincreditratingsandtofundthebusinessunderthecurrentcapitalstructure;theimpactofseriousinjury,illnessordeathintheworkplace;adversedecisionsbydomesticorinternationalregulatorybodies;changesinthemarketposition,businesses,financialcondition,resultsofoperationsorprospectsoftheGroup;directorindirectadverseimpactsassociatedwithClimateChangeandthemovetowardsaCircularEconomy;andCyberSecuritycausedbytheheightenedcyber-threatlandscape,theincreaseddigitalinteractionswithconsumersandchangestoregulation
Pastperformanceisnoguidetofutureperformanceandpersonsneedingadviceshouldconsultanindependentfinancialadviser.Theforward-lookingstatementsreflectknowledgeandinformationavailableatthedateofpreparationofthispresentationandBATundertakesnoobligationtoupdateorrevisetheseforward-lookingstatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwise.Readersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonsuchforward-lookingstatements.
Classified-Confidential
ImportantInformation
Forward-lookingStatements(continued)
AdditionalinformationconcerningtheseandotherfactorscanbefoundinBAT’sfilingswiththeU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(“SEC”),includingtheAnnualReportonForm20-FandCurrentReportsonForm6-K,whichmaybeobtainedfreeofchargeattheSEC’swebsite,,andBAT’sAnnualReports,whichmaybeobtainedfreeofchargefromtheBritishAmericanTobaccowebsite
.
AdditionalInformation
AllfinancialstatementsandfinancialinformationprovidedbyorwithrespecttotheU.S.orReynoldsAmericanInc.(“Reynolds”)areinitiallypreparedonthebasisofU.S.GAAPandconstitutetheprimaryfinancialstatementsorfinancialrecordsoftheU.S.business/Reynolds.ThisfinancialinformationisthenconvertedtoInternationalFinancialReportingStandardsasissuedbytheIASBforthepurposeofconsolidationwithintheresultsoftheBATGroup.TotheextentanysuchfinancialinformationprovidedinthispresentationrelatestotheU.S.orReynoldsitisprovidedasanexplanationof,orsupplementto,Reynolds’primaryU.S.GAAPbasedfinancialstatementsandinformation.
OurVapourproductVuse(includingAlto,Solo,CiroandVibe),andcertainoralproductsincludingVelo,Grizzly,Kodiak,andCamelSnus,whicharesoldintheUS,aresubjecttotheFoodandDrugAdministration(“FDA”)regulationandnoreduced-riskclaimswillbemadetotheseproductswithoutagencyclearance.
NoProfitorEarningsPerShareForecasts
NostatementinthispresentationisintendedtobeaprofitforecastandnostatementinthispresentationshouldbeinterpretedtomeanthatearningspershareofBATforthecurrentorfuturefinancialyearswouldnecessarilymatchorexceedthehistoricalpublishedearningspershareofBAT.
Audience
ThematerialinthispresentationisprovidedforthepurposeofgivinginformationaboutBATanditssubsidiariestoinvestorsonlyandisnotintendedforgeneralconsumers.BAT,itsdirectors,officers,employees,agentsoradvisersdonotacceptorassumeresponsibilitytoanyotherpersontowhomthismaterialisshownorintowhosehandsitmaycomeandanysuchresponsibilityorliabilityisexpresslydisclaimed.Thematerialinthispresentationisnotprovidedforproductadvertising,promotionalormarketingpurposes.Thismaterialdoesnotconstituteandshouldnotbeconstruedasconstitutinganoffertosell,orasolicitationofanoffertobuy,anyofourproducts.Ourproductsaresoldonlyincompliancewiththelawsoftheparticularjurisdictionsinwhichtheyaresold.
3
Classified-Confidential
01
03
AMulti-
NewCategories
are
valueaccretive
Category
Portfolioisessential
isajourney
TobaccoHarm
Reduction
02
4
Today’sThemes
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
Ourpurposeistobuild…
…throughreducingthehealthimpactofour
businessbyofferingagreaterchoiceofenjoyable
andlessrisky*tproductsforourconsumers
*Basedontheweightofevidenceandassumingacompleteswitchfromcigarettesmoking.Theseproductsarenotriskfreeandareaddictive.
5
†OurvapourproductVuse(includingAlto,Solo,CiroandVibe),andcertainproducts,includingVelo,Grizzly,Kodiak,andCamelSnus,whicharesoldintheU.S.,aresubjecttoFDAregulationandnoreduced-riskclaimswillbemadeastotheseproductswithoutagencyclearance.
6
OurObjective:
Deliveringvalueforallofourstakeholders
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
…andwe’veonlyjustbegun
100mof1.1bn
7
GlobalconsumernumbersforNewCategoriesandSmokersatanIndustryLevelSource:Statista2023,KantarIncidence&TrackStudies
Classified-Confidential
Increasinglyaglobalphenomenon
~60%
OfT-50marketsfullyopentoNewCategories
BRAMEXTUR
Keyglobalmarketsremaininaccessible
~30%
Countriesrestrict
1ormoreNew
Categories
8
Source:BATDataofcurrentmarketregulationsH12023
Classified-Confidential
AccessrestrictedtooneormoreNCsHighlyrestrictedorinaccessibletoNCs
SATISFACTION
IDENTITY
HARMREDUCTION
Marketsandconsumersarenothomogeneous
AccessibleNCmarkets
FLAVOURPREFERENCES
VALUE
CONVENIENCE
Regulation&Access
FundamentalDrivers
Occasions&Consumption
meeting
allpreferences
Nosinglesolutioniscapableof
9
Source:BATdata&ProprietaryConsumerResearch
10
So…weareinvestingnowinaMulti-Categoryfuture
Classified-Confidential
Beliefsto
Challenge
11
1
Thereisa
‘onesizefitsall’
solution
5
Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdiseasefromsmoking
3
THPencouragesmoreswitchingthanvaping
7
Poly-users
tendtosmokejustasmuch
10
Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarettesales
4
ModernOralisa
Scandinavian
phenomenon
8
NCsareusedequallyacrosscohorts
6
NewCategories(NCs)areoftenagatewaytosmoking
9
NCsareless
profitable
2
THPattractsthemostconsumers
BeliefstoChallenge
12
Classified-Confidential
6
NewCategories(NCs)areoftenagatewaytosmoking
9
NCsareless
profitable
8
NCsareusedequallyacrosscohorts
5
Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdiseasefromsmoking
7
Poly-users
tendtosmokejustasmuch
10
Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarettesales
Theme1:Multi-Category
4
ModernOralisa
Scandinavian
phenomenon
3
THPencouragesmoreswitchingthanvaping
1
Thereisa
‘onesizefitsall’
solution
2
THPattractsthemostconsumers
13
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
THPPenetration(%FMC*)
VapingPenetration(%FMC*)
Belief#1Thereisa‘onesizefitsall’solution
>70%ofVapour
>80%
ofTHP
60%
80%
70%
FACT
50%
60%
40%
50%
30%
20%
10%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
THPandVapour
correlate
inverselyto
Weighted
AverageTar
levels
8.5mg
AverageWeighted
TarperCigarette
8.5mg
AverageWeightedTarperCigarette
*FMC:FactoryMadeCigarettesSource:KantarIncidenceStudy2022,RetailAudit(suppliersdifferentbymarket),BATinternalinformation
Belgium,Bulgaria,Canada,Colombia,Croatia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Italy,Japan,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,Mexico,Netherlands,NewZealand,Poland,Portugal,Russia,SaudiArabia,Spain,SouthKorea,Sweden,Switzerland,UK,Ukraine,USA
14
Classified-Confidential
Belief#2THPattractsthemostconsumers
62
#TotalAdultUsers*(Mn)
54
FACT
43
+36
40
34
26
+24
21
17
13
Vapouristhebiggest
contributorto
consumergrowth
andaccelerating
11
10
10
7
2
2
20182019202020212022
VapourTHPMO
Source:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022*Adultusersbasedon20YearsofAge+inUSA.18+inallothermarkets
15
T42Markets:Algeria,Argentina,Australia,Bangladesh,Belgium,Brazil,Bulgaria,Canada,Chile,Colombia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Egypt,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Indonesia,Italy,Japan,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,Netherlands,NewZealand,Nigeria,Pakistan,Poland,Romania,SaudiArabia,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Taiwan,Turkey,UK,Ukraine,USA,Vietnam
Classified-Confidential
66%
34%
54%
46%
65%
35%
Belief#3THPencouragesmoreswitchingthanvaping
NCConsumers:StillSmokingDailyStoppedSmokingDaily
37%
39%
FACT
63%
61%
Vapour
THP
65%
71%
29%
35%
Vapour*andTHP
areequallyeffective
atencouraging
smokerstoswitch
Vapour
THP
THP
Vapour
61%
63%
64%
39%
37%
36%
Vapour
THP
THP
Vapour
16Source:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022
*VapourincludesDisposablesandrechargeableclosedsystemonly
Classified-Confidential
FACT
MOwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplayasmarketexpansionandtheUSaccelerategrowth
Belief#4ModernOralisaScandinavianphenomenon
MORevenueContribution
1.5
22%
1.1
21%
0.8
19%
52%
50%
25%
31%
27%
53%
2021
2022
2023Est
NordicsUSARoW
17
MOIndustryRevenue,£bnSource:KantarIncidenceStudy2022,BATOutlook
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
18
Implication1
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
AMulti-CategoryPortfolioisEssentialtoDeliverourPurpose&Industry
Transition
Classified-Confidential
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributorto
consumergrowthandaccelerating
6
NewCategories(NCs)areoftenagatewaytosmoking
9
NCsareless
profitable
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveat
encouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
Poly-users
tendtosmoke
justasmuch
10
Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarettesales
4
ModernOralwill
haveacritical
positiveroletoplay
8
NCsareusedequallyacrosscohorts
Theme2:THR
19
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeighted
AverageTarlevels
5
Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdiseasefromsmoking
Classified-Confidential
FACT
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedbyproductsofcombustion,notnicotine
UKROYALCOLLEGEOFPHYSICIANS
It’stheotherchemicalcompoundsintobacco,andinthesmokecreatedbysettingtobaccoonfire,thatdirectlyandprimarilycausetheillnessanddeath,
notthenicotineDR.SCOTTGOTTLIEB
USFDACOMMISSIONER(JULY2017)
Nicotineisnot…ahighlyhazardousdrug.
Themainculpritissmokeand,ifnicotinecouldbedeliveredeffectivelyandacceptably…withoutsmoke,most,ifnotall,oftheharmofsmokingcouldprobablybe
avoided
Nicotinewithoutsmoke:Tobaccoharmreduction(2016)
20
Belief#5Nicotineisasubstantialcauseofdisease
fromsmoking
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
FACT
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumersdon’tontosmoke
2.2%
1.8%
1.7%
3.1%
%SolusVapour
Entrants
switchingto
FMC2022
go
%ofadultpopulation
0.1%0.1%0.04%0.05%
Belief#6NewCategoriesareoftenagatewayto
smoking
%SolusVapourEntrantsswitchingtoFMC*
Globally**
2.2%
2.1%
2021
2022
*FactoryMadeCigarettes
21
Source:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022**TopNCMarkets:Canada,Denmark,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Poland,S.Korea,Sweden,Switzerland,UK–excludingUSA
Classified-Confidential
FACT
Theconsumerjourneyofteninvolvespoly-usagewherecigaretteconsumptionisreduced
Index
92
83
FMC+THPFMC+MO
FMC+Vapour
Belief#7Poly-userstendtosmokejustasmuch
FMC*AverageDailyConsumptionreductionamongPoly-Usersvs.FMCSolus
100
Index
81
Consumptioninleading9NCmarketsinstickEquivalent.
22
*FactoryMadeCigarettesSource:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022
Canada,Denmark,Germany,Italy,Japan,S.Korea,Sweden,UK,USA
“Poly-usage"referencesatransitionalperiodforadultFMCconsumerstowardsacompleteswitchingtoNCsduring
whichadultconsumersreducecigaretteconsumptionandchoosetoaddtoitaconsumptionofoneormoreNCs.
Classified-Confidential
35%22%43%
28%23%49%
22%16%62%
Belief#8NewCategoriesareusedequallyacross
cohorts
Categoryuse-AgeCohorts
2018
2022
FACT
AU3024%23%53%
AU30
30-4421%17%62%
30-44
NCpenetration
correlatesinversely
totheagecohortsof
adultconsumers
AO45
AO4513%13%73%
SolusNC**
DualFMC-NC**SolusFMC*
23
*FactoryMadeCigarettes**NCIncludesSnus“Dual-usage"referencesatransitionalperiodforadultFMCconsumerstowardsacompleteswitchingtoNCsduringwhichadultconsumersreducecigaretteSource:KantarIncidence&TrackStudies2022
consumptionandchoosetoaddtoitconsumptionofanNC.AU30:Adultconsumerfromminimumlegalageto30yrs.AO45:Adultconsumerover45yrs.Canada,Italy,Japan,UK,Sweden
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
6
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumersdon’tgoontosmoke
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
8
Cigaretteconsumptionisdecliningwith
poly-usage
NCpenetrationcorrelatesinverselytotheagecohortsofadultconsumers
TobaccoHarmReductionisabonafidecorporateandsocietalgoal
24
Implication2
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
5
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedbyproductsofcombustion,notnicotine
Classified-Confidential
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
5
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedby
productsofcombustion,
notnicotine
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
8
Cigaretteconsumptionisdecliningwithpoly-
usage
10
Industryvalueis
decliningwith
cigarettesales
NCpenetrationcorrelatesinverselyto
theagecohortsofadultconsumers
25
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
6
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumers
don’tgoontosmoke
9
NCsareless
profitable
Theme3:IndustryValue
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
FACT
NCsarealreadypositiveatGrossMarginlevelinalmostallCategories
**EuropeAvg.
*WorldAvg.*Worldexcl.USAvg.
Belief#9NewCategoriesarelessprofitable
AnnualConsumerProfitabilityIndex
VAPOURRechargeable
VAPOURDisposable
>120SolusFMC†
<80SolusFMC
80-120SolusFMC
Source:BATdata:IndexedNCGrossMarginperconsumerperannumvsFMC
*WorldAveragebasedonTop17NCmarketsaccountingfor~85%ofWorld’sNCsrevenue,basedonBATinternalest..
26
**EuropeTop12EuropeanNCMarketsaccountingfor~85%oftotalEurope’sNCrevenue,basedonBATinternalest.†FactoryMadeCigarettes-GMsperunitbasedonBATinternalestimates:FMCValueformoney(2023@‘22FXrates);Users&AvgdailyconsumptiondatabasedonNCTrack,NCusers.-AnnualGrossMargin(excl.MarketingInvestmentinrevenue&Royalties)peruserGroup
Classified-Confidential
£12bn
£43bn
Belief#10Industryvalueisdecliningwithcigarette
sales
T10IndustryValuevsFMCVolume
654bn
FMC**
VOLUME
FACT
Totalnicotinerevenueisgrowingyear-on-yearwithNewCategoriesdrivingvalueaccretion
613bn
570bn
-6.3
%CAGR
£8bn
£10bn
INDUSTRY
VALUE
£43bn
£43bn
+3.4
%CAGR
2021
FMC**Volume
2022
NCValue(Rev*)
2023Est
FMCValue(Rev*)
27
*Revenue**FactoryMadeCigarettesSource:BATOutlook
USA,UK,Germany,Canada,Japan,Switzerland,Italy,Denmark,Poland,SouthKorea,France,Sweden
2
Vapouristhebiggestcontributortoconsumergrowthandaccelerating
6
Ingeneral,newadultnicotineconsumersdon’tgoontosmoke
9
3
Vapour&THPareequallyeffectiveatencouragingsmokerstoswitch
7
4
ModernOralwillhaveacriticalpositiveroletoplay
8
Cigaretteconsumptionisdecliningwith
poly-usage
NCpenetrationcorrelatesinverselytotheagecohortsofadultconsumers
10
Totalnicotinerevenueisgrowingyear-on-yearwithNCsdrivingvalueaccretion
28
1
THP&VapourcorrelateinverselytoWeightedAverageTarlevels
5
Mostoftheharmfromsmokingiscausedbyproductsofcombustion,notnicotine
10Facts
NCsarealreadypositiveatgrossmarginlevelinalmostallCategories
Classified-Confidential
29
Today’sThemes
3
NewCategory
Productsare
ValueAccretive
1
AMulti-CategoryPortfoliois
Essential
2
TobaccoHarm
Reductionisajourney
Classified-Confidential
Classified-Confidential
Belief#11Japanisthe‘bellwether’transformation
story
SwedenFMC*Incidence2008-2022
14.3%
13.4%
11.8%
11.3%
10.0%
9.0%
6.9%
5.9%
Swedenhas
successfullydelivereda
multi-decadeTobacco
HarmReductionpolicy
200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
30
*
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 细胞内运输中的纳米技术应用-洞察分析
- 医院化验室个人工作总结范文(7篇)
- 《保安服务培训》课件
- 农机配件行业的办公流程与质量控制整合策略
- IT技术支持团队问题解决的动态视觉汇报
- 健康教育课程在校园文化建设中的作用
- 企业内部实验室的节能减排措施
- 健康管理在提升现代生活品质中的重要性
- 《物体的形状改变以后》课件
- 创新客户服务模式引领行业发展
- 2024年短剧拍摄及制作协议版
- 汽车维修安全生产管理制度(3篇)
- 用电安全专项检查工作方案模版(3篇)
- 微积分(I)知到智慧树章节测试课后答案2024年秋南昌大学
- 低空经济的商业化路径分析
- 新外贸业务员年终总结
- 化工厂设备安装施工方案
- 代账公司会计主管年终总结
- 创新思维训练学习通超星期末考试答案章节答案2024年
- 2024年一级注册消防工程师考试复习题库100题及答案(一)
- 科学与文化的足迹学习通超星期末考试答案章节答案2024年
评论
0/150
提交评论