FAO：食品价格趋势月度报告（2023年第5期）

ISSN2707-1952

CONTENTS

INTERNATIONALCEREALPRICES 2

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGS 3

WESTAFRICA 7

SOUTHERNAFRICA 9

EASTAFRICA 11

FAR

EASTASIA 13

EASTERNEUROPE,CAUCASUSANDCENTRALASIA 15

CENTRALAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN

17

SOUTHAMERICA

18

BULLETIN

FoodPriceMonitoringandAnalysis

#5

14June2023

MONTHLYREPORTONFOODPRICETRENDS

KEYMESSAGES

刁InternationalpricesofwheatandmaizecontinuedtodeclineinMay,whilericepricesincreasedfurther.Thedownwardtrendinwheatpriceswasmostlyduetoampleglobalsuppliesandsubduedimportdemand,whileanexpectedrecordcropinBrazilandhigherproductionintheUnitedStatesofAmericawerelargelybehindthedeclineinmaizeprices.TheextensionoftheBlackSeaGrainInitiativealsocontributedtosofteningworldprices.Bycontrast,internationalricequotationscontinuedtheirupwardtrendinMay,aspreviousdealswithAsianbuyerswereexecutedandsuppliestightenedinsomeexporters,suchasVietNamandPakistan.

刁InmostcountriesmonitoredbyFAO,domesticstaplefoodpricesinMay2023remainedabovetheiryear‑earlierlevels.Conflictandinsecurity,adverseweather,highpricesofagriculturalinputs,elevateddistributioncostsaswellascurrencyweaknessescontinuetobethemajordrivers.CoarsegrainpricesremainedconsiderablyhighinEastandWestAfrica,whileharvestseasedthepressureonmaizepricesinSouthernAfricaandSouthAmerica.InEasternEurope,CaucasusandCentralAsiacountriesandEastAsia,amplestocksandsuppliesfromongoingharvestscontributedtothesofteningofwheatandwheatflourprices.Meanwhile,inEastAsia,domesticricepricesincreasedinmajorexportingcountriesdespiteharvestpressuresweighingonpricesinothercountriesofthesubregion.

Argentina|Wheatflour

Botswana|Maizemeal

Ethiopia|Cereals

Ghana|Coarsegrains

Malawi|Maize

Myanmar|Rice

Nicaragua|Redbeans

Pakistan|Wheatflour

SouthSudan|StaplefoodsSudan|Staplefoods

Zimbabwe|Fooditems

Domesticpricewarnings

Pricewarninglevel:HighModerate[BasedonGIEWSanalysis]

Source:GIEWS,modifiedtocomplywithUNmap,2023.

Warningsareonlyincludediflatestavailablepricedataisnotolderthantwomonths.

GIEWS-GlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystemonFoodandAgriculture

INTERNATIONALCEREALPRICES

Internationalpricesofwheatandmaizecontinuedtodecline,whilericepricesincreasedfurtherinMay

InternationalwheatexportpricesdeclinedagaininMay.PricequotationsfortheRussianFederation(milling,offer,f.o.b.,deep-seaports),theEuropeanUnion(France,grade1),theAustralia(easternstates)andthebenchmarkUnitedStatesofAmerica(USNo.2,HardRedWinter),declinedby8.5percent,8.1percent,6.9percentand3.3percent,respectively,month-on-month,mostlyreflectingamplesupplies,amidstsubdueddemandand,consequentlystrongcompetitionamongexporters.GenerallyfavourablecropconditionsintheEuropeanUnionandtheRussianFederation,alongwiththeextensionoftheBlackSeaGrainInitiative,alsocontributedtothesoftertoneinwheatmarkets.

InternationalmaizeexportpricesfellsharplyinMay,withstrongdeclinesinquotationsforsuppliesfromallmajororigins.TheBrazil(Paranagua,feed)andtheArgentina(UpRiver,f.o.b.)quotationsfellby13.2percentand10.3percent,respectively,month-on-month,withdownwardpressurestemmingfromexpectationsforarecordharvestinBrazil.Currency

depreciationalsoweighedonArgentina’sprices.ThebenchmarkUnitedStatesofAmerica(USNo.2,Yellow)maizepricedeclinedby8percentinMay,drivenbyfavourablecropconditionsasplantingcontinued,andcancelledpurchasesbyChina(mainland)thataddedtothealreadyslowsalespace.

TheFAOAllRicePriceIndexaveraged127.8pointsinMay2023,up2.9percentfromitsAprilvalueand17percentaboveitsyear-earlierlevel.ExportpricesofIndicariceweregenerallyhigherinallmajorAsianoriginsduringMay,assuppliersexecutedpreviouslysealeddealswithAsianbuyers.QuotationsrosethemostinVietNamandPakistan,asatighteningofsupplieslentadditionalsupporttopricesintheseorigins.IncreasestendedtobemoremoderateinThailandandIndia,astheywerecappedinThailandbyadearthinfreshsalesand,inIndia,byincreasedarrivalsoffreshlyharvestedrice.IntheUnitedStatesofAmerica,sluggishdemandkeptpricesunderdownwardpressure,offsettingthesupportprovidedbyincreasinglytighteravailabilities.

Internationalwheatprices

265.00-4.5-12.3-34.2

250

f.o.b.,deep-seaports)

UnitedStatesdollarpertonneLatestPricePercentChange

May-231M3M1Y

450

aFr,273.91-6.9-15.1-31.8

EuropeanUnion(France),Wheat(grade1)256.96-8.1-19.8-41.6

200

May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23

Internationalmaizeprices

Argentina,Maize(Argentina,UpRiver,f.o.b.)253.61-10.3-18.9-19.4

260

240

it)ofAmerica(Gulf),Maize(US267.96-8.0-10.2-22.4

280Brazil(Paranagua),Maize(feed)242.17-13.2-21.2-26.8

UnitedStatesdollarpertonneLatestPricePercentChange

May-231M3M1Y

220

May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23

Internationalriceprices

UnitedStatesdollarpertonne

LatestPriceMay-23

750

700

Thailand(Bangkok),Rice(Parboiled100%)

521.50

650

600

457.75

VietNam,Rice(25%broken)

550

500

415.75

India,Rice(25%broken)

UnitedStatesofAmerica,Rice(USNo.2,4%LongGrain)

450

400

714.75

350

300

May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23

PercentChange

1Y

1M

3M

7.9

1.8

4.1

15.4

4.5

5.7

0.7

26.3

0.7

10.0

-0.6

-1.9

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

2GIEWSFPMABulletin14June2023

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGS

Countrieswherepricesofoneormorebasicfoodcommodityareatabnormalhighlevelswhichcouldnegativelyimpactaccesstofood

Argentina|Wheatflour

GrowthRate(%)

to04/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

-2.4

0.2

12months

0.2

0.2

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Argentina,GreaterBuenosAires,Retail,Wheat(flour).

Pricesofwheatflourrosefurtherandsetnewrecordhighs

RetailpricesofwheatflourcontinuedtoriseinApril,fortheninthmonthinsuccession,tolevelsmorethandoubletheiryear-earliervalues,reflectinghigherpricesofwheatgrainandcompoundedbyelevatedmillingandtransportcosts.Thiscontributedtoan8percentmonthlyincreaseinretailpricesofbread.Ingeneral,pricesoffooditemscontinuedtorise,amiddifficultmacroeconomicconditionsandby10percentmonth-on-monthinApril2023,withtheannualfoodinflationrateregistering115percentatthenationallevel.Tocontainthepriceincreases,thePreciosJustosProgramme,relaunchedinNovember2022,wasextendedtoend-July2023,fixingthepricesof2000basiccommoditiesinsupermarkets,includingstaplefooditems.InMay,theprogrammewasrevisedtoallowfora3.8percentmonth-on-monthincreaseinprices.

Botswana|Maizemeal

GrowthRate(%)

to04/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

0.2

0.4

12months

1.8

-0.1

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Botswana,NationalAverage,Retail,Maizemeal.

Pricesofmaizeatexceptionallyhighlevels

PricesofmaizemealcontinuedtoriseinApril2023,butataslowerpacecomparedtoprecedingmonths,asdecliningpricesontheinternationalmarketandinSouthAfrica,themainsourceofcereals,begantofilterintothedomesticmarket.Althoughdomesticcerealproductiononlyaccountsforasmallproportionoftotalnationalsupplies,thecurrentharvestperiodisforeseentoexertsomeadditionaldownwardpricepressure.

Ethiopia|Cereals

GrowthRate(%)

3months

to04/23

1.5

Sameperiodaverage

2.0

12months

-0.1

0.3

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Ethiopia,AddisAbaba,Wholesale,Maize.

PricesofcerealsatrecordlevelsinAprilduetothecontinuousdepreciationofthenationalcurrencyandconflict-relatedtradedisruptions

PricesofdomesticallyproducedmaizereachedrecordlevelsinAprilinallmonitoredmarkets,includingthecapital,AddisAbaba.PricesinAprilwere30–35percenthigherthanthealreadysignificantlyelevatedvaluesayear-earlier.InAddisAbaba,pricesoflocallyproducedteffandpricesofwheat,partlyimportedandmainlyconsumedinurbanareas,werealsoatrecordlevels,79and43percent,respectively,higheronayearlybasis.Thehighpricelevelsofcerealsaremainlyduetothecontinuousdepreciationofthenationalcurrency,whichincreasedpricesofimportedfuelandinputs,inadditiontoconflict-relatedtradedisruptionsinsomeareas.

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

14June2023GIEWSFPMABulletin3

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d

Ghana|Coarsegrains

GrowthRate(%)

to05/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

-3.3

3.2

12months

-1.4

0.5

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Ghana,Accra,Wholesale,Maize.

PricesofcoarsegrainsremainedstableorincreasedandremainedatveryhighlevelsinMay

Wholesalepricesoflocallyproducedsorghumandmilletremainedstableorincreased,whilepricesoflocalmaizeincreasedinMay.Pricesofsorghumwereupto69percenthigherthantheirelevatedyear-earlierlevels,whilepricesofmaizeandmilletwereuptoabout75percentabovetheirhighyear-earliervalues.ThehighcerealpricesaremostlysupportedbythedepreciationoftheGhanaiancedi,whichwasequivalenttoGHS11.38/USD1inMay2023comparedtoGHS7.13/USD1inMay2022,aswellaselevatedinternationalcommoditypricesandtransportcosts.

Malawi|Maize

GrowthRate(%)

to04/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

3.3

-3.1

12months

6.5

-0.1

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Malawi,NationalAverage,Retail,Maize.

Maizepricesdroppedseasonally,butstillhigheryear-on-year

ThenominalnationalaveragepriceofmaizegraindroppedsteeplyinAprilandMay,asthenewlyharvested2023cropseasedsupplypressure.Productionofmaizein2023isestimatedtobeclosetothepreviousyear’slevelandthefive-yearaverage,astheeffectsofCycloneFreddyandrainfalldeficitsinsomeareascontainedproduction.Elevatedcostsofcropproduction,amidhigherglobalinputpricesandaweakernationalcurrencythatamplifiedinflationarypressure,havecontributedtothehighyear-on-yearprices.

Myanmar|Rice

GrowthRate(%)

3months

to05/23

6.4

Sameperiodaverage

1.5

12months

5.8

-0.1

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Myanmar,Yangon,Wholesale,Rice(Emata,Manawthukha-FQ).

DomesticpricesofriceincreasedinMayandwereatnewrecordhighs

Domesticpricesof“Emata”rice,awidelyconsumedvariety,registeredtheir16thconsecutivemonthlyincreaseinMay,reachingnewrecordlevels,reflectingtightavailabilityduetoabelow-average2022outputlinkedtoelevatedproductioncosts.DisruptionstomarketsupplyduetotheupsurgeinviolenceaswellastheimpactofCycloneMochathathitnorthwesternpartsofthecountryinmid-May2023andcausedlossestostandingcrops,andhouseholds’foodreserves,alsosupportedprices.Overall,Maypriceswereabout120percenthigheryear-on-year.

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

4GIEWSFPMABulletin14June2023

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d

Nicaragua|Redbeans

GrowthRate(%)

to05/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

-2.3

1.7

12months

2.0

0.2

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Nicaragua,Managua(oriental),Wholesale,Beans(red).

PricesofredbeansinMaystrengthenedtolevels40percenthigher

year-on-year

WholesalepricesofredbeansstrengthenedinMayforthesecondconsecutivemonthaftershort-livedseasonaldeclinesintheFebruary–Marchperiod.Despitethehigheryear-on-yearproductionofbeansin2022,officiallyestimatedtohaveincreasedby2percent,pricesinMaywere40percentabovetheiryear-earlierlevels.Thehighlevelofpriceswasunderpinnedbyelevatedproductionandtransportcostsaswellasstrongexportdemand,withthequantityofbeansexportedduringthefirstquarterof2023morethan15percenthigheryear-on-year.ThiscontributedtothehighpricesofbeansinElSalvadorandHonduras,themajorimportersofbeansfromNicaragua,wherepriceswereabout30percentupfromayear-earlier.

Pakistan|Wheatflour

GrowthRate(%)

3months

to05/23

23.5

Sameperiodaverage

-0.3

12months

4.3

0.0

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Pakistan,Lahore,Retail,Wheat(flour).

PricesofwheatfloursurgedinMayandwereatnewrecordhighs

Pricesofwheatflour,akeystaplefood,continuedtoincreaseinMayandreachedrecordlevels,rangingfrom100–270percenthigheryear-on-year.Despitetheongoing2023harvest,officiallyestimatedatanabove-averagelevel,thehighdomesticpricesmostlyreflectasurgeininflationarypressureandelevatedagriculturalinput,andtransportcosts.Disruptionstosupplychainsduetoelevatedfuelpricesanddamagestoroadinfrastructurefollowingtheseverefloodsin2022,whichcausedseverelossesofhouseholds’foodreserves,contributedtotheupwardpressureonprices.

SouthSudan|Staplefoods

GrowthRate(%)

to05/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

0.1

0.9

12months

7.2

0.2

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:SouthSudan,Juba,Retail,Sorghum(Feterita).

PricesofmaizeandsorghumincreasinginMaytoexceptionallyhighlevels,mainlyduetoinsufficientsuppliesandseveremacroeconomicdifficulties

Pricesofmaizeandsorghumincreasedby4percentinMayinthecapital,Juba,asseasonaltrendswerecompoundedbyafurtherdepreciationofthenationalcurrency.Pricesofcassava,groundnutsandimportedwheat,otherimportantstaplesinthelocaldiet,alsoincreasedinMayby3–12percent.NominalfoodpricesinMaywereatexceptionallyhighlevels,withthoseofmaizeandsorghumaroundtwicetheiralreadyhighyear-earliervaluesandmorethan100timesthoseinJuly2015,beforethecurrencycollapse.Underlyingthehighfoodpricesareinsufficientsuppliesandthecontinuouslydifficultmacroeconomicsituationduetolowforeigncurrencyreservesandtheweaknationalcurrency.

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

14June2023GIEWSFPMABulletin5

DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d

Sudan|Staplefoods

GrowthRate(%)

to03/23

Sameperiodaverage

3months

0.5

4.0

12months

0.3

-0.4

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Sudan,ElGedarif,Wholesale,Sorghum(Feterita).

Zimbabwe|Fooditems

GrowthRate(%)

3months

to04/23

19.7

Sameperiodaverage

3.3

12months

8.5

1.6

Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.

Refersto:Zimbabwe,Mutare,Sakubva,Retail,Maize(white).

Pricesoffoodsurgingpasttheiralreadyhighlevelsduetotheongoingconflict

FoodpricesarereportedtohavesurgedinAprilandMayduetotradeandmarketdisruptionscausedbytheconflictthatstartedon13April2023,especiallyinurbanareas,wheretheconflictismoreintense.Thesesurgesoccurredagainstabackdropofalreadyhighcostsoffood,aspricesofdomesticallyproducedsorghumandmillet,themaincerealstaples,wereinMarchupto60percentabovetheiralreadyelevatedvaluesofayear-earlierdespitethefavourableoutcomeofthe2022croppingseason.AccordingtotheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP),thepriceofalocalfoodbasket,already28percenthigheronayearlybasisinMarch2023,isexpectedtoincreasebyafurther25percentintheleanseasonbetweenJuneandSeptember,iftheconflictcontinues.WFPhasprojectedthatthisincreaseinfoodprices,ifitmaterializes,willprevent18millionpeopletomeettheirbasicfoodneeds.Cerealpricesbegantofollowasustainedincreasingtrendinlate2017duetothedifficultmacroeconomicsituation,coupledwithhighpricesoffuelandagriculturalinputsinflatingproductionandtransportcosts.Heightenedpoliticalinstabilityandintercommunalclashesexertedfurtherupwardpressureonprices.

Currencyweaknessdrivesupinflation

Theannualfoodinflationrateincreasedto117percentinMay,upfromanestimated102percentinApril.Themonthlyratealsoincreasedsteeplyto28percentinMay,asthevalueoftheZimbabwedollarweakenedfurther.Inresponse,thegovernmentimplementedanumberofpoliciestoeaseinflationarypressure,includingthesuspensionofimportdutiesonkeyfoodcommodities

(FPMAFoodPolicies

).Atthecommoditylevel,maizegrainandmaizemealpriceswerestillsignificantlyhigheryear-on-yearinAprilandMay2023,respectively.TheharvestperiodofthemainseasoniscomingtoanendinJuneandincreasedmarketsuppliescouldexertsomedownwardpressureondomesticallygrowncereals,suchasmaize.

Price

level:

warning

High

Moderate

FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere

6GIEWSFPMABulletin14June2023

WESTAFRICA

Pricesofcoarsegrainsfollowedmixedtrendsandwerewellabovetheir

year‑earlierlevelsinseveralcountries

PricesofcoarsegrainsshowedmixedtrendsinAprilandMay2023incountriesoftheSahelandalongtheGulfofGuinea.SeasonaldepletionofhouseholdstocksandconsequentincreasedmarketrelianceaswellasrisingdemandinAprilduringRamadanunderpinnedpriceincreasesinsomecountries.Pricesofcoarsegrainsremainedwellabovetheiryear-earlierlevelsinseveralcountriesacrossthesubregion.

InMali,wholesalepricesofmilletfollowedmixedtrendsinMay,whilepricesofsorghumremainedstableordecreased.Pricesofcoarsegrainsweregenerallybelowtheirveryhighyear-earlierlevels,reflectingtheyear-on-yearincreaseincerealoutputsin2022.However,inthemarketofGao,locatedinaconflict-affectedarea,pricesofsorghumandmilletwere3and13percent,respectively,higheronayearlybasis.InBurkinaFaso,wholesalepricesofsorghumandmilletweregenerallystableordecreasedinMayandwerelowercomparedtotheiryear-earlierlevels,reflectinghigheryear-on-yearcerealoutputs.However,inthemarketofBoboDioulasso,thepriceofmilletwas4percenthighercomparedtothepreviousyear,underpinnedbysustaineddemandfromcereal-deficitareas.IntheNiger,wholesalepricesofmilletfollowedmixedtrends,whilewholesalepricesofsorghumremainedstableorincreasedinMay.Pricesofcoarsegrainswereat,orbelow,year-earlierlevels,reflectingthesharpcerealproductionupturnin2022.InChad,retailpricesofmaizewerestable,pricesofsorghumdecreasedandpricesofmilletwerestableordeclinedinApril.Pricesofcoarsegrainsweregenerallybetween4and24percentabovetheirelevatedyear-earlierlevels,mostlyunderpinnedbylowsupply,hightransportcostsandstronglocaldemand,particularlyineasternareas,whichareexperiencinginformalcerealoutflowstotheSudan.InSenegal,nationalaveragepricesofmaizeandmilletdeclined,whiletheaveragepriceofsorghumincreasedinApril.Inspiteoftheabove-average2022cerealharvest,pricesofmaize,sorghum

andmilletwere18,30and45percent,respectively,abovetheirelevatedyear-earliervalues,mostlyunderpinnedbyhighproductionandtransportcostsaswellasgeneralinflationarypressure.

InGhana,pricesoflocallyproducedsorghumandmilletremainedstableorincreased,whilepricesoflocalmaizeincreasedinMay.Pricesofsorghumwereupto69percenthigherthantheirelevatedyear-earlierlevels,whilepricesofmaizeandmilletwereuptoabout75percentabovetheirhighyear-earliervalues.ThehighcerealpricesaremostlyduetopersistentinflationarypressuresfromthedepreciationoftheGhanaiancediandelevatedinternationalcommodityprices,andtransportcosts.InTogo,retailpricesofmaizeandsorghumremainedstableordecreasedinMayandwereatorbelowtheiryear-earliervalues,exceptinthemarketsofAnieandLomé,wherepricesofsorghumwere3and11percent,respectively,higheronayearlybasis,mostlysupportedbylowsupplyduetohighfuelcosts.InBenin,retailpricesofsorghumdeclinedinApril,whilepricesofmaizewerestableorincreased.Pricesofcoarsegrainswerenearorbelowtheiryear-earlierlevels.InNigeria,pricesofmilletandmaizeincreasedseasonallyinApril,whilepricesofsorghumfollowedmixedtrends.Pricesofmaizeandmilletwerebetween5and24percent,respectively,higheryear-on-yearinmostmarkets,whilepricesofsorghumwerebeloworslightlyabovetheiryear-earlierlevels.PricesoflocallyproducedricegenerallyincreasedinAprilandwere20–35percenthigheryear-on-year.Bycontrast,pricesofimportedricedecreasedslightlyinApril,butremained30–40percentaboveitsyear-earlierlevels.Thehighcerealpricesreflectmarketdisruptionsduetoinsecurityaswellasincreasedproductionandtransportcosts.Furthermore,highfoodpricesweresupportedbypersistentshortagesofcashanddepreciationofthenationalcurrency,inparticularontheparallelmarket.Foodinflationreachedanannualrateof24.6percentinApril2023.

WholesalepricesofmilletandsorghuminMali

Kayes,Sorghum230000.0-8.0-32.4

CFAfranc(BCEAO)per100kgLatestPricePercentChange

May-231M3M1Y

45000Bamako,Millet26500-3.61.9-28.4

50000

35000Ségou,Millet250000.04.2-16.7

40000

15000Tombouctou,Sorghum33000-8.310.0-5.7

10000

May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23

Kongoussi,Millet350000.016.7-6.7

40000Ouagadougou,Millet28000-1.8-6.7-20.0

WholesalepricesofmilletandsorghuminBurkinaFaso

CFAfranc(BCEAO)per100kg