贝恩-2021年奢侈品未来（英文）-2021.5-36正式版

TheFutureofLuxury:

BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Our2020LuxuryGoodsWorldwideMarketStudyoutlinesthepandemic’sdrasticimpactontheindustryandpointstoapathtorecovery.

Authors

ThisstudywasauthoredbyClaudiaD’Arpizio,FedericaLevato,FilippoPreteandConstanceGault.

ThisreportwaswrittenbyJoëlledeMontgolfier.

Copyright©2021Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Contents

Executivesummary........................................pg.1

1. Luxuryspendingtrendsin2020............................... pg.5

2. Regionalhighlights....................................... pg.11

3. Distributiontrends........................................ pg.15

4. Individualcategoryperformance.............................. pg.19

5. Outlookforthefuture.....................................pg.23Appendix..............................................pg.28

i

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

ii

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Executivesummary

Covid-19causedanunprecedentedfallinluxurymarketsize

The19theditionoftheBainLuxuryStudy,publishedbyBain&CompanyforFondazioneAltagamma,thetradeassociationofItalianluxurygoodsmanufacturers,analyzedrecentdevelopmentsinthegloballuxurygoodsindustry,aswellasitsfutureoutlook.

TheluxuryindustryastrackedbyBain&Companyencompassesbothluxurygoodsandexperiences.Itcomprisesninesegments,ledbyluxurycars,luxuryhospitalityandpersonalluxurygoods,whichtogetheraccountformorethan80%ofthetotalmarket.

TheluxuryindustryhasbeenheavilyimpactedbytheCovid-19crisisin2020.Theoverallluxurymarket—encompassingbothluxurygoodsandexperiences—shrankby20%to22%atcurrentexchangerates,andisnowestimatedatapproximately€1trillionglobally,backtoits2015levels.

Salesofluxurycarscontinuedtodominatethemarket,butdeclinedby8%to10%atcurrentexchangeratesto€503billion.Mostluxuryexperiences(includingluxuryhospitality,cruisesandfinedining)weredisproportionatelyimpacted(–56%atcurrentexchangerates)andshouldbelasttorecovergiventheirdependenceontouristflows.Experience-basedgoods(includingfineart,luxurycars,privatejetsandyachts,finewinesandspirits,andgourmetfood)resistedbetter,decliningbyonly10%atcurrentexchangerates.Theyshouldrecoverrapidlyfromthe2020shockgivenpositiveconsumptiondynamicsacrossmostsegments.

Personalluxurygoodswereseverelyimpacted

Themarketforpersonalluxurygoods—the“coreofthecore”ofluxurysegments,andthefocusofthisanalysis—contractedforthefirsttimesince2009,fallingby23%atcurrentexchangeratestohit€217billion.ThisdropisthelargestrecordedsinceBainhasbeentrackingtheindustry.Uncertaintywillhoverovertheindustryforsomemonthstocome.

Anacceleratedshifttolocalpurchasing,drivenbyChina

MainlandChinahasbeentheonlyregiongloballytoendtheyearonapositivenote,growingby45%atcurrentexchangeratestoreach€44billion.Localconsumptionhasroaredaheadacrossallchannels,categories,generationsandpricepoints.

Europehasbornethebruntofacollapseinglobaltourism.Consumptiononthecontinentfellby36%atcurrentexchangeratesto€57billion.

TheAmericasexperiencedlessimpact—themarketfellby27%atcurrentexchangeratesto€62billion.IntheUS,departmentstoresfaceanuncertainfuture,andthemapofluxuryconsumptionhasbeenredrawntomoveawayfromcitycenters.

1

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Japanshrankby24%atcurrentexchangeratesto€18billion.TherestofAsiaalsostruggled,withHongKongandMacauamongtheworstperformersglobally.Theregioncontractedby35%atcurrentexchangeratestoreach€27billion.

TheimpactintheMiddleEastwasmitigatedbyshorterlockdownsandrepatriationofspendingpreviouslymadeabroad.InAustralia,aslowdownfromthewildfireswasamplifiedbythehaltoftourism.Overall,therestoftheworldcontractedby21%atcurrentexchangeratesto€9billion.

Theregionalshiftsmarkanaccelerationofarebalancingofwhereluxurypurchasesaremadeastouristsshifttobuyintheirhomemarkets.Theshareofpurchasesmadelocallyreached80%–85%thisyear,andintheyearsaheadweexpectittorepresentbetween65%and70%asdomesticpurchasesregainrelevanceespeciallyinChinaandthebroaderAsianregion.

Onlinechannelaccelerates,whilestoreswillberedefined

ThechangesbroughtbyCovid-19increasedthepresenceofonlineineveryaspectoflife.Intheluxurymarket,onlinesalesmadeup€49billionin2020,upfrom€33billionin2019.Theshareofpurchasesmadeonlinenearlydoubledfrom12%in2019to23%in2020.

Onlineissettobecometheleadingchannelforluxurypurchasesby2025,fuelingtheomni-channeltransformation.

Thisdramaticincreasecomesattheexpenseofbrick-and-mortar.Weexpectnogrowthinthenumberofstoresoperateddirectlybybrandsin2020,andapossibledeclineinstorefootprintsin2021.Brandswillneedtoadjusttheirnetworkstothenewmapofluxurybuying,evolvethestoreroleanditsergonomicsandmaximizethecustomerexperience.Thewaveoftransformationwillnotleavewholesaledistributionuntouched:Perimetercontraction,polarizedperformanceandentryofnewplayerswillleadluxurybrandstoincreasetheircontrolonthechannel.Meanwhile,thesecondhandmarketforluxurygoodsroseby9%to€28billion.

Allpersonalluxurygoodscategorieshaveseendeclinesin2020

Despiteastrongdeceleration,accessoriesremainedthelargestpersonalluxurygoodscategory.

Shoesandjewelryweretheproductcategoriesthatdeceleratedtheleast.Shoeswerecushionedbydemandinsneakers,fallingbyonly12%to€19billion,whilejewelrysawsustaineddemandinAsiaandbenefitedfromonlinesales.Thatcategoryremainspolarizedwithhighjewelryandiconic,entry-priceditemsleadingtherecovery.

Watchesandapparelbothdeclinedby30%.Forwatches,Covid-19amplifiedsecularconsumptionpatternshifts.Inapparel,formalweardemandwasinsharpdeclineandapparelplayersfacedincreasingcompetitionfromsocialmediasavvy,direct-to-consumerbrands.

2

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Acrossproductcategories,entry-priceitemsgainedinrelevance,reachingmorethan50%ofvolumessoldin2020.Inthequestforpricingrelevance,therulesofthegamearerapidlychangingaccessibleluxuryasweknewit,duetoincreasingcompetitionfromnew,insurgentbrandswithrelevantpurposeandinnovativebusinessmodels.

TheturmoilofCovid-19hasbeenacatalystforchangefortheluxuryindustry

Ithasbeenayearofprofoundchangeinthewaygloballuxuryconsumersliveandshop,andinwhattheyvalue.Scenariosfor2021arevaried,andBainforecastsgrowththatrangesfrom+10%/12%to+17%/19%dependingonmacroeconomicconditions,theevolutionofCovid-19andthespeedofreturntotravelglobally,aswellastheresilienceandconfidenceoflocalcustomers.

Thedeclineinrevenuein2020shouldtakeadisproportionatetollonprofitability—weexpectoperatingprofittodeclineby60%in2020comparedwith2019(i.e.,fromanaverageof21%marginto12%margin).Accordingtoouranalysis,in2021themarketisexpectedtorecover50%oftheprofitlossof2020—butstillremainbelow2019levels.

Weexpectsalesrecoverytogatherpaceoverthenextthreeyears,withthepersonalluxurygoodsmarketreturningto2019levelsbytheendof2022orearly2023.

Luxurybrandshavefacedayearoftremendousshifts,buttheindustryshouldcomeoutofthecrisiswithmorepurposeanddynamismthanbefore.By2030,theindustryshouldbedrasticallytransformed.Wewillnottalkoftheluxuryindustryanymore,butofthemarketfor“insurgentculturalandcreativeexcellence.”Inthisnew,enlargedspace,winningbrandswillbethosethatbuildontheirexistingexcellencewhilereimaginingthefuturewithaninsurgentmindset.Luxuryplayerswillneedtothinkboldlytorewritetherulesofthegame,transformingtheiroperationsandredefiningtheirpurposetomeetnewcustomerdemandsandretaintheirrelevance,especiallyforyoungergenerations,whoaresettodrive180%ofthegrowthinthemarketfrom2019to2025.

3

1

Luxuryspendingtrendsin2020

ThegloballuxurymarkettrackedbyBain&Companycomprisesninesegments:luxurycars,personalluxurygoods,luxuryhospitality,finewinesandspirits,gourmetfoodandfinedining,high-endfurnitureandhousewares,fineart,privatejetsandyachts,andluxurycruises.Overall,theluxurymarketdeclinedby20%to22%atcurrentexchangeratesin2020,toanestimated€1trillion,withallsegmentsdeclininginrealterms.Luxurycars,luxuryhospitalityandpersonalluxurygoodstogetheraccountedfor80%ofthetotalmarket.

Salesofluxurycarscontinuedtodominatethemarket,butdeclinedby8%to10%atcurrentexchangerates,downto€503billion.Weobservednuancedimpactacrosssegmentsandbrands,withselectedplayersintheaspirationalandabsolutesegmentsperformingsignificantlybetterthanmarketaverage.Thetransitiontowardgreen-poweredtrainsacceleratedacrossallcountriesexcepttheUS,whereitwasslowedbypolicyinfavoroffossilfuels.TheCovidpandemicoutbreakpostponedinvestmentstowardautonomousvehicles.

Luxuryhospitalityseverelydeclined,by55%to65%atcurrentexchangerates.Themarketwassignificantlyimpactedbylockdownmeasures,withoccupancyratesdecreasingbyover30percentagepointsglobally.Inselectcountries,hotelsfulfilleda“medical”functiontohostpeopleinquarantine.Luxuryhotels,whichwillhavetowinbacktheirclientelewhenglobaltravelresumes,experimentedwithalternativeformsofstay(e.g.,“work-from-hotel”)tostayrelevant.Trustedbrandsplayedameaningfulroleasqualityassuranceinlightofsafety-relatedconcerns.

High-endfoodandfinediningdeclinedby15%to17%atcurrentexchangerates,withsignificantdifferencesinperformanceacrosssegments:Finediningwasstronglyimpactedbyclosuresandtourismcontraction;conversely,high-endfoodcapturedarisingshareofconsumption,albeitnotsufficientlytooffsettheimpactontheentiresegment.Finediningexperimentedwithinnovativewaystokeepintouchwiththeircustomers(e.g.,“cook-at-home”kits).

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Salesoffinewinesandspiritsdecreasedby10%to13%onaverageatcurrentexchangerates.Inwines,thesegmentofsuper-high-endbrandsprovedmoreresilientthanentry-to-luxuryduetoitsstrongerconnectionwithpersonalgratificationandcollection.Thesparklingsegmentwasoverlyimpactedduetoitsstronglinkwithcelebratoryoccasions.Spiritsweremoreresilientthanwinesduetoahistoricallyhigherweightofat-homeconsumption(toavoidthe“drink-and-drive”issue).Ginremainedon-trend,andtappedintonewgeographies(suchasAfrica)throughtheriseoflocalcraftbrands.Sophisticationremainsacriticaltrend,ascustomerspreferqualityoverquantityinwines,cocktailsandspirits.

Salesofprivateyachtsandjetsdeclinedby10%to12%atcurrentexchangerates.Luxuryyachtdeliveriesshowedresilience,withaflattrendcomparedwith2019,favoredbystrongorderbooks,withsomeshipyardsevenincreasingdeliveriesvs.2019.Ingeneral,orderintakessloweddownduetotheglobaleconomicuncertainty,yetatalowerratethanotherluxurysegments,withcustomerswillingtosecurean“intimate”luxuryexperienceforthecomingyears.Customersalsoshowedcontinuedinterestforsustainablesolutionsindesign.Inprivatejets,weobservednuancedperformanceacrossbrandsandrisingdemandforsecondhandjets.Ultra-high-net-worthindividualsareexpectedtoshowsustaineddemandintheyearsahead,withprivatejetsviewedasaviablealternativetocommercialtravel.

Thefineartmarketshrankevenmoresubstantiallythanlastyear(–35%to40%).Weobservedasharpimpactonbothauctionsandprivatesales,assupplyshrankinlightofglobaluncertainty.Therewerealsochallengingconditionsforsmallandmediumgalleries,whichlackedscaletoinvestbehindashifttoonline.CustomersshowedgrowinginterestinBlackandLatinoartistsinlightofglobalsocialmovementsinfavorofdiversity.Onlinepenetrationincreased,broadeningthecircleofpotentialbuyerstoincludenewgenerations.

High-endfurnitureandhousewaresexperiencednegativegrowthof–10%to12%.Thecorehigh-qualitydesignmarketsustainedwiththegrowingroleofhomesaspersonal“cocoons,”withrisingneedsforpersonalization,self-expressionandfunctionality.Thelightingandaccessoriescategoriesexperiencedstrongtraction,withlightingcontinuingitsfunctionalevolutionbeyondpureaesthetics.The“resi-mercial”trendaccelerated,fueledbytheblurringboundariesbetweenlivingandworkingspaces,withcomfortanincreasinglyrelevantpurchasingcriteria(alongsidepuredesign).Thedecelerationofthehospitalityandretailsegmentsinducedaslowdownofthecontractmarket.

6

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Mostluxuryexperiences(includingluxuryhospitality,cruisesandfinedining)weredisproportionatelyimpacted(–56%atcurrentexchangerates)andshouldbelasttorecovergiventheirdependenceontouristflows.Experience-basedgoods(includingfineart,luxurycars,privatejetsandyachts,finewinesandspirits,andgourmetfood)resistedbetter,decliningbyonly10%atcurrentexchangerates.Theyshouldrecoverrapidlyfromthe2020shockduetopositiveconsumptiondynamicsacrossmostcategories.

Themarketforpersonalluxurygoodscontractedforthefirsttimesince2009,fallingby23%atcurrentexchangeratestohit€217billion.ThisdropisthelargestrecordedsinceBainhasbeentrackingtheindustry.Uncertaintywillhoveroverthesegmentforsomemonthstocome.Followingonthesecondquarter,whichwastheworstthesectorhaseverexperienced,thereweresignsofrecoveryinthethirdquarter.Themostlikelyoutcomeinthefourthquarterisa–10%year-over-yeardrop,whichisheavilydependentonthefutureevolutionofCovid-19andtheadditionalrestrictionsthatnationalgovernmentscouldputinplace.

7

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Figure1:Thegloballuxurymarketcontractedto€1trillionin2020,down20%to22%from2019

Worldwideluxurymarket,2020E(€billions)

45

38

23

22

1

1,000

68

85

503

217

Year-over-year(YOY)growth,2019–20E

Personal

Luxury

Luxury

Fine

Gourmet

High-end

Fine

Private

Luxury

Total

luxury

cars

hospitality

wines

food&

furniture&

art

jets&

cruises

2020E

goods

&spirits

fine

housewares

yachts

dining

Atcurrent –21%/ –8%/ –55%/ –10%/ –15%/ –10%/ –35%/ –10%/ –65%/ –20%/

exchangerates –25% –10% –65% –13% –17% –12% –40% –12% –75% –22%

Source:Bain&Company

Figure2:Experience-basedgoodssufferedlessin2020andshouldrecoverfasterthanpersonalluxurygoods;experienceswillrecoverlastgiventheirrelianceontourism

Growthofgloballuxurygoodssegments,indexedto2010(2010–25F)

280

2024/25

180 2021/22

2022/23

80

2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920E21F22F23F24F25F

CAGR

YOY

CAGR

2010–19

19–20E

20E–25F

Experience-

8%

–10%

5%/9%

basedgoods

Experiences

9%

–56%

17%/21%

Personal

6%

–21%

7%/11%

goods

Expectedyearofrecoverytopre–Covid-19level(i.e.,2019)

Notes:Growthshownatcurrentexchangerates;personalgoodsincludehigh-endfurniture,housewaresandpersonalluxurygoods;experience-basedgoodsincludefineart,luxurycars,privatejetsandyachts,finewinesandspirits,andgourmetfood;experiencesincludeluxuryhospitality,cruisesandfinediningSource:Bain&Company

8

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Figure3:Covid-19interruptedthe“newnormal”pathofthepersonalluxurygoodsmarketin2020,leadingtothefirstmarketcontractioninoveradecade

Globalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket(€billions)

YOYgrowth,2019–20E

–23%Atcurrentexchangerates

–22%Atconstantexchangerates

CAGR

281

1996–2019E

212

219

245

244

254

262

+6%

207

217

186

116122122120128139150161159147167

76 84 88 98

1996

97

98

99

2000

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20E

“Sortiedutemple”

Democratization

Crisis

Chinese

Reboot

New

Covid

shoppingfrenzy

normal

crisis

Source:Bain&Company

Figure4:Q22020wastheworstquartereverforpersonalluxurygoods.TherearesignsofrecoveryinQ3,butuncertaintyisthekeywordfortheholidayseason

Globalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,growthtrendperquarterin2020E(QoQgrowthrate,2020Evs.2019)

EstimatedQ4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

QOQgrowth

0%

2019–20E

Best

–5%

–12%

Base

–10%

QOQgrowth

2019–20E

Worst

–20%

–22%

MarketperformanceinQ4expectedatdifferentpace

Chinaatfullspeed,whileAsiainrecovery

Americassluggish(thoughontherighttrack).Europestillstruggling

VariationinQ4performancedrivenby:

Performanceduringholidayseason

–50% –23%

Mostlikely

–21% outcome –25%

Estimatedfull-yearmarketgrowth

(2020Evs.2019)

EvolutionofCovid-19andrelatedadditionalrestrictions/lockdowns(especiallyinEurope/Americas)

Possibleadditionalsocioeconomictensions(e.g.,post-USelections,governmentmeasuresinEurope)

Macroeconomicevolution

Source:Bain&Company

9

2

Regionalhighlights

In2020,theglobalrankingofluxurysalesbyregionchangedquitedramatically.Until2019,EuropeandtheAmericaswerethebiggestregionsforluxurysales,butin2020Asiabecamethetopregionforluxurysales.

ThisislargelydrivenbytheperformanceofMainlandChina,whichhasbeentheonlyregiongloballytoendtheyearonapositivenote,growingby45%atcurrentexchangeratestoreach€44billion.Localconsumptionreboundedquicklyandacceleratedweekafterweek,roaringaheadacrossallchannels,categories,generationsandpricepoints.TravelretailinMainlandChinaexperiencedaboomthisyear,particularlyinHainan.However,totalpurchasesmadebyChinesecustomersexperienceda30%–35%decline,duetoChinesecustomersnottraveling:Purchasesmadeabroad(historicallyuptotwo-thirdsoftotalpurchasesbyChinesecustomers)thusdeclinedby70%.

Japanshrankby24%atcurrentexchangeratesto€18billion.Japanesecustomersrefrainedfromspendingduringthecrisis,butfavoredtimelessbrandsviewedaslong-terminvestments.

TherestofAsiastruggled,contractingby35%atcurrentexchangeratestoreach€27billion.HongKongandMacauwereamongtheworstperformersglobally.SouthKoreanconsumersshowedstrongappetiteforluxuryconsumption,yettheduty-freemarketslumped.InSoutheastAsia,asmallanddevelopinglocalcustomerbasewasnotabletooffsetthecollapseintourism.

Europehasbornethebruntofacollapseinglobaltourism.Demandfellby36%atcurrentexchangeratesto€57billion.Inthesecondquarter,itwastheworst-performingregionglobally,duetolackoftourism,lockdownmeasures,storenetworkclosuresandlowconsumerconfidence.However,localconsumptionshowedresilience:PurchasesbyEuropeancustomersdecreasedonlyby10%–15%.Localconsumptionmovedtowealthyareasandshowedthebiggestshifttotheonlinechannelglobally.AmongEuropeancountries,Russiaexperiencedthebestperformance.

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

TheAmericasexperiencedlessimpact:Themarketfellby27%atcurrentexchangeratesto€62billion.IntheUS,localconsumptionshowedthesameresilienceasinEurope(–10%to–15%).Despitelockdownsandpoliticaluncertainty,therewerepositivesignsofarestartinQ3duetothestimuluspackage.Departmentstoresseemtohavereachedapointofnoreturnandfaceanuncertainfuture.Themapofluxuryconsumptionseemstoberedrawntomoveawayfromcitycenters.InSouthAmerica,Brazilperformedbetterthantheregionalaverage.

Overall,therestoftheworldcontractedby21%atcurrentexchangeratesto€9billion.TheimpactintheMiddleEastwasmitigatedbyshorterlockdownsandrepatriationofspendingpreviouslymadeabroad,thoughwithdifferentnuancesamongcountrieswithintheregion(theUnitedArabEmirateswasmostimpacted).InAustralia,thehaltintourismamplifiedaslowdownfromthewildfires.

Regionalshiftsmarkanaccelerationofarebalancingofwhereluxurypurchasestakeplace,astouristsshifttobuyintheirhomemarkets.Theshareofpurchasesmadelocallyreached80%–85%thisyear,andweexpectittorepresentbetween65%and70%asdomesticpurchasesregainrelevance,especiallyinChinaandthebroaderAsianregion.

Figure5:Asiabecamethetopregionforluxurysalesbyvalue

Shareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,byregion(€billions)

CAGR

YOYgrowth

281

2010–20E

2019–20E

262

186

207

212

219

245

244

254

217

1%

–21%

167

1%

–24%

–1%

–36%

2%

–27%

–2%

9%

2010

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20E

Europe

Americas

Asia,includingChina,excludingJapan

Japan

Restofworld

Note:Growthshownatcurrentexchangerates

Source:Bain&Company

12

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Figure6:Chinawasthebestperformingcountrybuthadthemostaffectedcustomers(nottraveling);Europewasthemostaffectedregionbuthadthebestperformingcustomers(locally)

Shareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,byconsumernationality(€billions,2019–20E)

Shareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,byregion(€billions,2019–20E)

281

217

281

217

6%

5%–7%

4%

4%

10

7–9

9

8

22

24–26

30

28

17

17–19

26

13

31

13–15

13

33

27–29

15

20

11

2019

2020E

2019

2020E

Chinese/China

OtherAsian/RestofAsia

European/Europe

American/Americas

Japanese/Japan

Restofworld

Source:Bain&Company

Figure7:Thegloballuxurymarket,historicallytourismdependent,confirmeditsmorelocalnaturein2020andshouldcontinuedoingsointhecomingyears

Shareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,bylocalcustomersvs.tourists(€billions,2015–25F)

330–370

281

30%–35%

245

40%

217

Tourists

15%–20%

50%

65%–70%

80%–85%

60%

Localcustomers

50%

2015

2019

2020E

2025F

Note:Findicatesforecastedgrowth

Source:Bain&Company

13

3

Distributiontrends

Wholesaleremainedthelargestchannelforluxurygoods,accountingfor

54%ofallsales.Yettheretailchannelresistedbetter,growingitsshareto46%(upfrom40%).

Thedistributionlandscapeunderwentasignificanttransformationin2020.Threechannelswereparticularlyaffected:travelretail(duetothefreezeinworldtravel),departmentstoresandspecialtystores.Monobrandstoresandoutletsalsosufferedduetoclosures,butwereabletomaintaintheirshare.

Onlinewasthefastest-growingchannel,increasingby50%andnearlydoublingitssharetoreach23%ofluxurysalesglobally(upfrom12%in2019).Onlinesalesmadeup€49billionin2020,upfrom€33billionin2019.Globally,theonlinechannelinfluenced85%ofluxurytransactions(comparedwith75%in2019),and40%to50%ofpurchasesweredigitallyenabled(comparedwith20%to25%in2019).

Online’sdramaticincreasecomesattheexpenseofbrick-and-mortarstores.Bainexpectsnogrowthinthenumberofstoresoperateddirectlybybrandsin2020andapossibledeclineinstorefootprintsin2021.Brandswillneedtoadjusttheirfootprintstothenewmapofluxurybuying,evolvethestoreroleanditsergonomics,andmaximizethecustomerexperience.

Thewaveoftransformationshouldnotleavewholesaledistributionuntouched:Perimetercontraction,polarizedperformanceandentryofnewplayerswillleadluxurybrandstoincreasetheircontrolonthechannel.

TheFutureofLuxury:BouncingBackfromCovid-19

Figure8:Wholesaleremainedthedominantchannelforluxurygoods,butownedretail

resistedbetter

Shareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,bychannel(€billions)

262

281

245

244

254

167

186

207

212

219

62

60

217

63

65

64

68

54

72%

71

70

68

40

35

36

37

38

46

30

32

32

29

28%

2010

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2020E

RetailWholesale

Note:Growthshownatcurrentexchangerates

Source:Bain&Company

CAGR YOYgrowth

2010–20E 2019–20E

0% –30%

8% –11%

Figure9:Allbrick-and-mortarchannelsweredramaticallyhitin2020,leading