澳大利亚电池产业的未来

Charging

AheadAustralia’s

battery

powered

futureFinal

ReportMarch

2023About

AccentureAccentureisaleadingglobalprofessionalservicescompanythathelpstheworld’sleadingbusinesses,governmentsandotherorganisationsbuildtheirdigitalcore,optimisetheiroperations,acceleraterevenuegrowthandenhancecitizenservices—creatingtangiblevalueatspeedandscale.

We

are

a

talent

and

innovation

led

company

with

738,000

people

serving

clients

in

more

than120countries.Technologyisatthecoreofchangetoday,andweareoneoftheworld’sleadersinhelpingdrivethatchange,withstrongecosystemrelationships.Wecombineourstrengthintechnology

with

unmatched

industry

experience,

functional

expertise

and

global

delivery

capability.We

are

uniquely

able

to

deliver

tangible

outcomes

because

of

our

broad

range

of

services,

solutionsandassetsacrossStrategy&Consulting,Technology,Operations,IndustryXandAccentureSong.Thesecapabilities,togetherwithourcultureofsharedsuccessandcommitmenttocreating360°value,

enable

us

to

help

our

clients

succeed

and

build

trusted,

lasting

relationships.

We

measure

oursuccessbythe360°valuewecreateforourclients,eachother,ourshareholders,partnersandcommunities.Visitusat

About

Future

Battery

Industries

CRCFBICRC

was

established

in

2019

through

the

Australian

Government’s

Cooperative

Research

CentreProgram.

It

brings

together

partners

with

a

presence

across

the

battery

value

chain

from

Australia’sestablishedstrengthinminingthroughtoprocessing,manufacture,servicesandrecyclingandreuse

of

batteries.

Through

investment

with

its

partners

in

aportfolio

of

research,

development

andeducationprogramsitseekstoaddresschallengesassociatedwiththeenergytransitionandcapture

the

significant

economic

opportunities

for

Australia

from

the

rising

demand

for

batteries.Manyoftheseissuescanonlybeaddressedincollaborativeeffortsalongthevaluechain.TheFBICRCprovidesaplatformtoenablethiscollaboration.Itisthelargestpartnershipofindustry,government

organisations

and

research

partners

focused

on

battery

industries

in

Australia

with

73participants.Visitusat

.auWe

are

grateful

to

the

following

organisations

that

havesupported

the

development

of

this

report:Acknowledgements:Reportcommissioned

by:TherapidgrowthofglobaldemandandtheincreasedforecastvalueofbatterypackshasamplifiedtheopportunityforAustralia.DiversifiedbatteryindustriesinAustraliacouldnowcontributeA$16.9billiongrossvalueadded(GVA)and61,400jobstotheeconomyby2030,whichismorethandouble

the

GVA

contribution

of

A$7.4

billionforecastinFuture

Charge.Thedemandforbatterieshasgrownsignificantly.

We

now

forecast

that

demandforbatteriesin2030is64%higherthanprevious

estimates,

with

the

annual

growthrateofbatterydemandacceleratingfrom24%to

34%.Materialshortageshavedrivenlong-termpriceincreasesfor

batteries.Lithium,nickel,graphiteandcobaltallfacestructuralsupplyshortagesby2030.Thisexpectedshortagehasincreasedthe2030forecastprice

of

lithium-ion

battery

packs

by

35%.Thedynamicsoftheglobalbatteryindustrieshavechangedrapidly,andAustraliamustactquicklyanddecisivelytocapturetheeconomicandstrategicopportunityofdiversifiedbattery

industries.TherearesixkeypolicystrategiesthatAustraliangovernmentsshould

implementtobuildaninternationallycompetitivebattery

industries

at

speed

and

scale:Alliancesand

incentivesIndustry

attractionIndustry

coordinationRegionalexport

partnershipsIncreasedomestic

demandSpecialistbattery

institute.Globally,governmentsareadoptingincreasinglyambitiousindustrypoliciestogrowtheirbatteryindustries.Thishasnarrowed

Australia’s

window

of

opportunityto

compete

on

an

international

scale.Chinaiscurrentlythedominantplayeracrossthebatteryvaluechain.However,many

countries

are

now

seeking

to

diversifytheirbatterysupplychains,creatingopportunitiesforalternativesupplierssuchas

Australia.Australia’sstrategicanddefencepartnerships

in

the

Asia-Pacific

region

havestrengthened,creatinganopportunityforAustralia

to

partner

with

its

allies

to

developitsbattery

industries.Australiahaskeysourcesofdifferentiationacrossthevaluechainandiscostcomparable

with

peers,

but

global

subsidiesareerodingAustralia’scostposition,particularlyinbattery

manufacturing.Todrivegreatercompetitive

advantage,Australia

will

need

to

leverage

its:Criticalmineralwealth;todrivecostsynergiesthroughverticalintegrationand

co-location,

and

to

provide

uniquesupply

diversity.Reliabilityandsecurity;topositionAustraliaasanalternativesecuresourceof

supply,

enabling

countries

to

diversifytheirsupplychainandsecurematerialsfortheirgrowingdomesticbatteryindustries.Environmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)credentials;todifferentiateAustraliaagainstrivalsasa

responsibleproviderofbatterymaterialsandproducts.Executive

summaryAustralia

now

has

the

opportunity

to

build

thriving

domestic

battery

industries

that

will

provide

$16.9

billion

in

gross

value

added

and

support

61,400

jobs

by

2030Thegrowthofglobalbatteryindustrieshasacceleratedrapidly,andtheopportunityforAustraliaisnowmorethandouble

previousforecasts.Governmentsmustactquicklyanddecisivelytocapturemidstream

anddownstreamvalueinglobalbatteryindustries.Majorglobaleconomiesarenowvyingforgreatersharesofthebatteryvaluechain,creatingbothopportunitiesand

challengesforAustralia’sbattery

industries.Australiawillneedtoleanintoitscomparativeadvantagesofmineraldiversity,reliability,securityandESGcredentialstobecompetitiveacrossthevalue

chain.Highlighted

a

rapidly

growing

market

for

batteriesWhen

Future

Charge

was

released

in

2021,

the

global

batterymarket

was

forecast

to

grow

at

24%

per

annum

to

2030,increasing

nine

to

tenfold

compared

to

2020.Identified

how

Australia

could

compete

across

the

valuechainThe

report

identified

how

Australia

could

compete

globally

byleveraging

upstream

cost

advantages,

its

positionas

areliablenationandthrough

specialisationopportunities.Evaluated

the

economic

opportunity

for

AustraliaFutureChargeestimatedthatdiversifiedbatteryindustriescould

contribute

A$7.4

billion

in

GVA

and

34,700

jobs

to

theAustralianeconomyby

2030.Provided

an

overview

of

key

policies

for

governmentconsiderationFourkeypolicyobjectiveswerelaidout,withhigh-levelrecommendations

for

government

to

meet

each

objective.The

dynamics

of

global

battery

industries

have

rapidly

changed,

and

Australiamust

act

quickly

to

capture

the

economic

and

strategic

opportunityFuture

Charge

highlighted

the

opportunity

for

Australia

in

the

global

battery

market,and

provided

a

high-level

path

for

Australia

to

capture

that

valueSince

Future

Charge,

the

global

battery

market

has

taken

off,

and

Australia

must

act

nowif

it

wants

to

compete

and

capture

the

greater-value

opportunity

now

at

stakeThe

demand

for

batteries

is

growing

much

faster

than

anticipatedGlobal

battery

demand

is

now

forecast

to

grow

at

34%

per

annum

to2030,increasing18-foldon2020levels.Thisrepresentsa64%increase

in

demand

in

2030

relative

to

previous

forecasts.The

market

for

batteries

is

now

far

more

competitiveMajor

global

governments

have

accelerated

their

efforts

to

capturevalueintheglobalbatterymarketandbuildtheirsovereigncapabilities.Australiawillneedtoleanintoitscomparativeadvantages,

particularly

mineral

wealth,

to

be

competitive.The

size

of

the

economic

opportunity

is

now

much

largerThegrowthinglobaldemandforbatteries,coupledwithsupplyshortagesofkeycriticalminerals,hasgreatlyincreasedthesizeoftheopportunityforAustralia.Diversifiedindustriescouldnowcontribute

A$16.9

billion

and

61,400

jobs

to

Australia’s

economy.Quick

and

decisive

action

from

government

is

required

if

Australiawants

to

capture

the

economic

opportunity

availableGiventheacceleratedpacewithwhichbatteryindustriesaredeveloping

and

consolidating,

Australian

governments

will

need

toact

quickly

to

support

battery

industries

to

capture

shares

in

high-valuemarket

segments.Mining-focused

industriesAustraliaremainsfocusedoncapturingopportunitiesfromminingrawbatterymaterials,whichhaveexpandedbasedontherapiduptakeofbatteriesgloballyandsubsequentincreasesinrawmaterial

prices.Diversifiedbattery

industriesAustralia

builds

from

its

mining

strength

tocapture

the

opportunities

from

developingdiversifiedbatteryindustries,includingdownstreamactivities.These

opportunitieshave

expanded

due

to

the

growth

in

globaland

domestic

demand

for

batteries.Path1Path2$25.8

billioninadditional

GDP$10.4

billioningrossvalue

added31,600direct

jobs$55.2

billioninadditional

GDP$16.9

billioningrossvalue

added61,400direct

jobs$8.9

billioninadditional

GDP$4.1

billioningrossvalue

added18,700direct

jobs$23.6

billioninadditional

GDP$7.4

billioningrossvalue

added34,700direct

jobsNotes:Figures

in

Australian

currency.FutureCharge

released

in

2021.

Modelling

assumptions

are

in

the

appendix.Source:FBICRC(2021);IEA(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);McKinsey(2022);BNEF(2022a,2022b,2022c);AEMO(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);WoodMackenzie(2022);RenewEconomy(2022a,2022b);EnergyStorageNews(2022);SolarRun(2022);

Department

of

Energy

and

PublicWorks

(2022);

BatteriesEurope(2021);

CSIRO

(2021);

Accentureanalysis.Australia’s

battery

industries

could

contribute

$16.9

billion

to

the

economy

by2030,

more

than

double

previous

forecastsFutureCharge

2030

forecast Updated2030

forecast5Contents03Australia

must

leverage

its

comparative

advantages

ofmineral

diversity,

supply

chain

reliability

and

high

ESGstandardstocompete

internationally2502Ascompetitionbetweenglobalbatteryindustrieshasintensified,

Australia

must

now

expedite

more

targetedand

comprehensive

policies

to

compete1301Withtheacceleratinggrowthoftheglobalbatterymarket,diversifiedbatteryindustriescouldnowcontribute

A$16.9

billion

to

the

Australian

economy

in2030704Tobuilddiversifiedbatteryindustries,fastandcomprehensive

action

from

government

is

required3905Appendix49With

the

accelerating

growth

of

theglobalbatterymarket,diversifiedbatteryindustriescouldnowcontributeA$16.9billiontotheAustralian

economy

by

20301,0002,0003,0004,0003,7002,300+64%Historic

data

2020FutureCharge

forecast

2022updated

forecast02015 2020 2025 2030Notes:The2022updatedforecastisanevenlyweightedaverageofthreescenarios:theMcKinseyBaseCaseScenario,BNEFEconomicTransitionScenarioandtheIEASustainableDevelopmentScenario.The2020FutureChargeforecast

is

the

2020

Roskillprojection

as

it

was

used

for

market

sizing

in

the

report.Sources:

IEA

(2022,

2022,

2022,

2022);

McKinsey

(2022);

BNEF(2022);

EY

(2022);ICCT

(2022);

BNEF

(2022);

US

Congress(2022);

European

Commission

(2019,

2021).CAGR24%34%Economicopportunity–

demandGrowth

in

global

demand

for

batteries

has

accelerated

since

2020

forecasts,with

64%

additional

demand

expected

by

2030Globalbatterydemandisnowforecasttoincreaseby18timesfrom2020to2030,comparedtothepreviousforecastofaninetotenfold

increase.The

revised

demand

projection

can

be

attributedtoincreasedadoptionofelectricvehiclesandstationarystorage,andaglobalaccelerationintheenergy

transition.Increased

adoption

of

electric

vehicles

is

the

keydriverbehindtheforecastgrowthinbatterydemand,

with

demand

for

batteries

in

stationarystoragealsocontributingtoglobalbatterydemand.GlobalEVuptakein2030isnowforecasttobe94%higherthanwasforecastin2021.EVsincludeelectricbuses,two-wheelers,commercialvehiclesandpassenger

EVs.PassengerEVsrepresentthelargestshareofforecastEVuptake.Inaddition,forecastsofstationary

storage

installations

have

increased

by4%since2020

forecasts.Governmentsgloballyhaveacceleratedtheenergytransition,inpartbysubsidisingtheirdomesticbatteryindustries.Forexample,theUS’sInflationReductionAct(IRA)willdeployatleastUS$369billionintocleanenergyinvestmentsoverthenexttenyears,providingtaxincentivesacrossallbatteryvaluechainsegments.AveragingoverUS$36billionininvestmentperyear,theIRAinvestmentsurpassespreviouscleanenergysubsidyprograms,suchasChina’swindandsolarsubsidies

which

were

less

than

US$10

billion

peryear.Othercountriesandjurisdictionsarealsoinvesting

heavily

in

their

battery

industries.

TheEuropean

Union

has

approved

over

US$6

billionin

public

funding

to

support

innovative

projectsacrossthebatteryvaluechain,whileIndiahasallocatedoverUS$2billioningrantstosupportgigafactory

construction.Exhibit

1:

Global

battery

demand,

projected

to

2030GWh

per

annum,

2020

=

latest

actual

dataNotes:

Forecast

supply

and

demand

for

nickel,

cobalt

and

graphiteare

in

the

appendix.Sources:

IEA

(2021,

2022,

2022);BCG(2022);

S&P

Global

(2022);

Benchmark

MineralsIntelligence

(2022);

NRDC

(2022);

Reuters

(2022,

2022);

FrontierGroup

(2022);

Cobalt

Institute

(2022,

2022);

World

Bank

(2022);

SumitomoMetal(2022);

Stratas

Advisors

(2022);

Resources

Rising

Stars(2022);

World

Economic

Forum(2022);

International

Graphite

(2022);

Benchmark

Mineral

Intelligencedata

(2022,

2022,

2022);

Wood

Mackenzie

data

(2022);

Industrial

MetalService(2022);Walkabout(2022);UtilityDive(2022);Accenture

analysis.4.62.8

2.9203520201.81.40.50.4202520303.5LithiumdemandMinesin

operationProbablenew

extractionPossiblenew

extractionRecyclingTherearesupplyconcernsregardingseveralcriticalbatterymaterials,particularlylithium,nickel,cobaltand

graphite.Thesupplyoflithiumisforecasttofallshortofdemandby2030.StrongdemandforEVsisexpectedtodrivelithiumdemandoverthenextdecade.However,newsupplyisnotcomingonlineattherateneededtomatchsurgingdemand.

This

is

due

to

low

lithium

prices

in

2018-2020causinganunder-investmentinlithiummining.Furthermore,thecapabilitiesandexpertiserequiredtorefinelithiumintobatterychemicalsareconcentratedinahandfulofcountries,whichislimitingnewpotentialproduction.Current

nickel

production

is

forecast

to

not

meetdemandin2035.Miningandprocessingindustriesarestrugglingtokeepupwiththedemandforbattery-gradenickelusedinEVbatteries.Inaddition,globalsupplychaindisruptionscausedbytheRussia-Ukrainewarhavealsocontributedtotheshortageofnickel.Nickelisexpectedtoremaininasupplydeficitfor

the

third

straight

year

in

2023.Economicopportunity–

supplyExhibit

3:

Expected

date

of

shortage

for

nickel,

graphite

and

cobaltSupply

of

key

battery

materials

is

not

forecast

to

keep

up

with

increasingdemandNickelGraphiteCobaltYearof

expectedshortageCurrentlyin

shortage20252026Cobaltisforecasttobeinasupplydeficitby2026,andgraphiteisforecasttobeinasupplydeficit

by

2025.

Graphite

shortages

are

expectedduetoacombinationofalimitednumberofgraphiteminesintheworldandunder-investmentintographiteprojects.Forthesecriticalminerals,BenchmarkMineralIntelligenceforecastthatatleast231newminesand54factoriesareneededby2035toequatesupplyanddemand

forecasts.Lead

times

in

mining

are

much

longer

than

otherpartsofthesupplychain,withminingrequiringexploration,proofofviabilityforextraction,andextensivepermitting.AccordingtotheIEA,mines

that

started

operations

between

2010

and2019

took

on

average

16.5

years

to

develop

fromexplorationto

extraction.Exhibit

2:

Forecast

global

lithium

supply

and

demand

Mt

lithium

carbonate

equivalent

(LCE),

2020

=

latest

actual

dataLithiumisexpectedto

be

in

shortage

by2030.Exhibit

4:

Price

forecasts

for

lithium-ion

battery

packsRealUS$perkWh,2022=latestactual

data3,4,5The

price

of

battery

packs

in

2030

is

expected

to

be

35%

higher

thanpreviously

forecastDuetotheincreaseddemandandforecastshortageofcriticalminerals,themajormetalsusedtoproducebatterieshaveallexperiencedpriceincreases.Inturn,thishasincreasedtheforecastpriceforlithium-ionbattery

packs.BetweenDecember2021andDecember2022,lithium,nickelandcobaltpricesincreasedby499%,117%and56%respectively.Batterypackmaterialcosts–ofwhichcriticalmineralsareakeycontributor–makeupbetween50%and70%

of

the

total

battery

pack

price.

While

criticalmineralpricesareexpectedtoincreasethroughout2023,forecastsbeyondthisarelesscertain.Whileincreasedpricesofcriticalmineralsareputtinginflationarypressureonpackprices,packpricesareforecasttodeclinebetween2024and2030.Continuedtechnologyimprovements,2increaseduptakeofLFPcathodes,adoptionofalternativecheaperbattery

chemistries,

and

manufacturing

scale

areputtingdownwardspressureonprices.BatterypacksareexpectedtocrosstheUS$100/kWhthresholdin

2026.587802018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027Notes:1.ForLFPmodulesandNMC-811packs.2.Includingchangesinmoduleandpackdesign,suchascell-to-packdesigns.3.BNEFforecastsareusedforbatterypackprices,butbatterypricesareinfluencedbytheunderlyingcommodity

prices

and

are

subject

tochange.

4.

The

forecast

pack

priceof

$78/kWh

in

2030

implies

a

lithium

carbonate

price

of

around

$70/kg.

A

lithiumcarbonate

price

of

$70/kg

in

2030

is

around

current

prices,

which

have

rangedfrom

$69-79

over

the

past

month.

5.

2022

forecast

in

2022

dollars,

2020

forecast

in

2020

dollars

to

align

withFuture

Charge

estimates.Sources:

BNEF

(2022,2022);

IEA(2022);

VisualCapitalist

(2022);

SQM

(2022);

InvestorIntel

(2022);

Trading

Economics

(2022a,

2022b,

2022c,

2022d,

2022e).50100150200202820292030151+35%Historic

data

2020FutureCharge

forecast

2022updated

forecastEconomicopportunity–

priceMining-focused

industriesAustraliaremainsfocusedoncapturingopportunitiesfromminingrawbatterymaterials,whichhaveexpandedbasedontherapiduptakeofbatteriesgloballyandsubsequentincreasesinrawmaterial

prices.Diversifiedbattery

industriesAustralia

builds

from

its

mining

strength

tocapture

the

opportunities

from

developingdiversifiedbatteryindustries,includingdownstreamactivities.

Theseopportunitieshave

expanded

due

to

the

growth

in

globaland

domestic

demand

for

batteries.Future

Charge

2030

forecastPath1Path2Updated2030

forecast$16.9

billioningrossvalue

added61,400direct

jobs$10.4

billioningrossvalue

added31,600direct

jobs$25.8

billioninadditional

GDP$8.9

billioninadditional

GDP$4.1

billioningrossvalue

added18,700direct

jobs$55.2

billioninadditional

GDP$23.6

billioninadditional

GDP$7.4

billioningrossvalue

added34,700direct

jobsNotes:As

the

value

of

mined

productsfor

the

battery

value

chain

has

increased

significantly

since

Future

Charge,

the

gross

value

added

per

job

for

the

mining

industry

has

increased,

decreasing

the

number

of

jobsassociated

with

agiven

level

of

grossvalue

added

for

mining.

Figures

in

Australian

currency.Sources:FBICRC(2021);IEA(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);McKinsey(2022);BNEF(2022a,2022b,2022c);AEMO(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);WoodMackenzie(2022);RenewEconomy(2022a,2022b);EnergyStorageNews(2022);SolarRun(2022);

Department

of

Energy

and

PublicWorks

(2022);

BatteriesEurope(2021);

CSIRO

(2021);

Accentureanalysis.Economic

opportunityThe

accelerating

growth

in

the

battery

market

has

more

than

doubledAustralia’s

economic

opportunity

by

20302.9x2.6x1.7x2.3x2.3x1.8xIncreasePursuing

diversified

battery

industries

could

increase

gross

value

added

toA$16.9

billion

in

2030

and

support

around

61,400

jobsNotes:

1.

Direct

jobs

required

to

operate

and

maintain

activity.

Does

not

include

temporary

construction

jobs.Sources:FBICRC(2021);IEA(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);McKinsey(2022);BNEF(2022a,2022b,2022c);AEMO(2022a,2022b,2022c,2022d);WoodMackenzie(2022);RenewEconomy(2022a,2022b);EnergyStorageNews(2022);SolarRun(2022);

Department

of

Energy

and

PublicWorks

(2022);

BatteriesEurope(2021);

CSIRO

(2021);

Accentureanalysis.Exhibit

5:

Additional

GDP,

gross

value

added

and

jobs1by

value

chain

segment,

pathway

1

and

pathway

2,

2030

MininDiversifiedbattery

industriesAustraliacouldeitherpursuemining-focusedindustries,whichwouldgeneraterawmaterialsneededforbatteries,ordiversifiedbatteryindustries.Amining-focusedstrategywouldcreateA$25.8billioninadditionalGDPby2030,generatingA$10.4billioninGVAandsupporting31,600jobs.Themajorityofthegrossvalueaddedandjobswouldbeinmining,withsomerefiningactivity,alongwithservicesandintegrationtoaddress

the

demand

for

batteries

from

Australia.Achievingamining-focusedstrategywouldrequirearoundA$20-25billionofcapitalinvestmentbetween2020and2030.Theinvestmentrequirementsforamining-focusedstrategyhaveapproximatelydoubledsinceFutureCharge,drivenlargelybytheincreasedGVAin2030fortheminingandrefiningindustries.AdiversifiedbatterystrategywouldcreateA$55.2billioninadditionalGDPby2030,generating

A$16.9

billion

in

GVA

and

supporting61,400

jobs.

This

pathway

would

involve

greaterrefiningandservicesandintegrationactivitythanpathway1,alongwithactivityinactivematerials,cellmanufacturing,packassemblyandre-useandrecycling.AdiversifiedbatterystrategywillrequirearoundA$30-35billionofcapitalinvestmentbetween2020and2030,approximatelyA$10billionmorethanwouldbeneededforamining-focused

strategy.g-focused

industriesAdditionalGDP

(A$b)16.07.82.025.8GVA

(A$b)7.91.60.910.4Jobs

(’000)13.97.99.731.611.03.74.911.215.613.9Jobs

(’000)1.0

61.4MiningRefiningActive

materialsCell

manufacturingPack

assemblyServices

&Re-use&integrationrecyclingPath1Path20.2.27.15.78.315.416.0AdditionalGDP