Kantar-解锁UAE-FMCG市场趋势和购物者暗示（英）

UnlockingUAE

FMCGMarket

Trendsand

ShopperInsights

FMCGMacroUpdateQ1,2023

WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

June2023

Macro-economicContext

DespitethedowngradetoheadlineGDPfromoiloutputcut,non-oilsectors,includingFMCG,

remainsstronglypositive,witharobustcapitalmarketsignalingfurtherencouragingsignsfortheUAEeconomy

OPEC+'soutputcuttoweighonoilGDPbutnon-oilsectorisvibrant

UAEeconomyisexpectedtogrowthat2.4%in

2023,slowerthanwhatwaspreviously

projected.

Expandingnon-oilsectorleadstoimprovement

inPMIat55.9inMar.

RealGDPGrowth:

InflationinDubaiedgeddown,howeverrenthikeshitsthewallets

InflationinDubaidroppedinQ1toaverage

4.6%,downfrom6.2%inQ32022.

However,inflationinDubaiandUAEasawhole

easedataslowerratethanseeninotherpartsoftheworld,suchastheUSandtheeurozone.

Inflationhasslowedatamoregradualpacein

theUAEinpartbecauseitpeakedatalowerrateastheauthoritiessmoothedtheadjustmentinfoodandenergyprices.

However,strongeconomicgrowthandaninflux

ofexpatstotheUAEcausingrentstorise.

Deepeningcapitalmarketsignalsgrowthandinnovation

Despiteglobalmarketuncertainty,aflowof

IPOsontoemirates'localbourses,likelytomaintainrelativelystrongperformanceoflocalequitymarkets.

UAEEquityPrices

Source:OxfordEconomicsCountryEconomicForecast

report,April2023

2

KeyFMCGTrends

RussiaUkraineWarStarts

114

108

104

102

101

101

100

107

105

97

101

9898

87

88

96

94

93

90

Inspiteofpricingpressuresthatwidenthevolume-valuegap,thestrongriseinRamadan

drivenvolumein2023wasapositivedevelopmentforbrandsandretailers

UAEFMCGMonthlyKPIs|IndexedtotheaverageofFY2020

120

110

100

90

80

70

VolumesSpends

COVID19

110

87

Avg

2020

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Ramadan

2020(April&May)

Covid

impactbegins

SummerVacations

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Apr-21

May-21

Backtoschool

Vaccinationstartsbutcases

Ramadan2021

continue

Manyofficesresume

Gradual

openingup

Jun-21

Jul-21

SummerVacations

Aug-21

Sep-21

Oct-21

Backtoschool

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Ramadan2022

Ramadan2023

Summer

Vacations

Backtoschool

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA.Basisthe87FMCGcategorieswecurrentlytrackintheUAE

3

*Inordertoseethetrends/crestsandthroughsintermsofvolumesforoverallFMCGwehaveremovedthecontributionfromBottledWaterwhichisabout55%oftheoverallvolumesanddoesnotfluctuatemuchovertime

COVID19

127

116

103

114

114

114

104

92

111

98

110

105

104

104

102

90

101

100

87

97

103

92

82

100

89

88

80

86

8686

80

92

80

FluctuationsinFMCGconsumerbehavioraredrivenbyseasonalfactorsandamplifiedby

basketpricehikes,necessitatingadaptivemarketingstrategies

Basisthe87FMCGcategorieswecurrentlytrackintheUAE

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

SpendsFrequencySpend/Trip

RussiaUkraineWarStarts

125

121

121

120

117

117

119

Avg2020

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Ramadan

2020(April&May)

Covid

impactbegins

SummerVacations

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Apr-21

May-21

Jun-21

Jul-21

BacktoschoolVaccinationstartsbutcases

Ramadan2021

SummerVacations

continue

Manyofficesresume

Gradual

openingup

Aug-21

Sep-21

Oct-21

Backtoschool

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Ramadan2022

Ramadan2023

Summer

Vacations

Backtoschool

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

Basisthe87FMCGcategorieswecurrentlytrackintheUAE

4

Asinflationreachesaplateau,thereisasofteningofthespendinggrowthrate.Overallgrowth

alsodrivenbyincreasedpopulation

Intheshortterm,theprimarycountermeasureshoppersusedisreductionoffrequency

QuarterFMCG|PerformanceDrivers

Spend000’sSR

Penetration

Frequency

VolumeperTripKG/Ltr.

TotalHH000’s

AveragePriceSR/KG/Ltr.

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

*Inordertoseethetrends/crestsforoverallFMCGwehaveremovedthecontributionfromBottledWaterallKPIs

5

InflationTrend

Monitoringpricingtrendsacrossdifferentproductcategoriesiscrucialforcreatingbrand-

specificstrategiesasinflationgrowthshowssomesignsofrestraintinmostsegments,exceptforbeverages

FMCGquarterlypricechangeversusSPLY(%chg)

Q2'22Q3'22Q4'22Q1'23

10.2%

7.4%

5.9%5.0%

11.9%

7.9%

7.2%

3.4%

Drivenby

Coffee,RTDJuices

10.6%

12.4%

8.9%

7.9%7.4%

10.5%

DrivenbySCareandBSoap

kin

ar

5.2%

6.3%

5.7%

5.1%

2.8%

1.6%

2.7%

2.8%

2.3%

3.7%

AllFMCG

Food

Beverages

Dairy

PersonalCare

HomeCare

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA.Quarterlychangevs.sameperiodlastyear

Inordertoseethetrends/crestsforoverallFMCGwehaveremovedthecontributionfromBottledWater

6

SegmentDeepDive

Thisquarter,therelativelylowerpriceincreasecorrelatedwithaslightincreaseinvolume,

asindividualbuyersrationalizedtheirpurchasestoalesserextent

Mar'23vs.SPLY

Quarterly%changeValueVolumeVol/BuyerAvgPrice

FMCG

6.3

1.3

-2.9

5.0

Food

7.5

3.9

-0.3

3.4

Beverage

8.3

-2.0

-6.3

Highestrisein

Coffee,RTD

Juices

10.6

8.1

0.2

-4.2

7.9

HighestriseinGhee,Evap.milk,Butter/Margarine,

Labneh

Dairy

-2.8

-5.0

2.3

-7.4

PersonalCare

HomeCare

7.9

2.0

-1.8

5.7

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA.DecQ1'23vsSPLY&DecQ1'23vsSPLY

Inordertoseethetrends/crestsforoverallFMCGwehaveremovedthecontributionfromBottledWater

7

RecenttrendsalsoindicatelargerpackpurchasesforFood,Beverages,andPersonalCare,

necessitatingafreshlookatportfoliomanagement

Brandsneedtobemorecompetitiveaspenetrationgainsinmostsegmentsdecreased

SegmentsPerformance|QE/Q1'23indexedvsSPLY

>103<97

TotalFMCG

Food

Beverage

Dairy

PersonalCare

HomeCare

Spend/

buyer

Spend/

trip

Price/

volume

Volume/

buyer

Frequency

Basket

size

Pack

size/buyer

Packs/

trip

Penetration

gaininno.ofcategories

102

105

105

97

97

100

104

89

74

103

104

103

100

99

101

107

88

77

104

109

111

94

95

98

105

83

100

103

105

108

96

98

98

100

100

125

95

101

102

93

94

99

103

75

33

104

103

106

98

101

97

99

100

45

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA.Inordertoseethetrends/crestsandtroughsforoverallFMCGwehaveremovedthecontributionfromBottledWaterwhichisabout55%oftheoverallvolumesanddoesnotfluctuatemuchovertime

8

OpportunitiesforBrands

Increasedexposuretoawiderrangeof

customersthroughhypermarkets,leadingtopotentialforincreasedsalesandmarketshare.

Abilitytonegotiatebetterpartnership

dealswithhypermarketsduetolargervolumepurchases.

ChallengesforBrands

Increasedcompetitioninhypermarkets

makesdifferentiationchallenging.

Needtoadjustmarketingandproducts

forhypermarketshoppers'preferencesandbehavior.

14.5

10.8

11.8

5.2

20

15

10

5

0

ChannelPerformance

Ashiftinshopperbehaviortowardsexploringalternativeshoppingoptionslikehypermarkets

presentsbothchallengesandopportunitiesforbrands

Q4SpendContribution(%)

17.9

25

PengrowthobservedinallFMCGsegments

11.6

9.4

8.68.6

6.4

19.920.1

1110.9

20.7

16.8

16.4

14.8

6.9

5.6

Carrefour

Lulu

KNHypermarketsKNSupermarkets

KNCo-operatives

Q1'21Q1'22Q1'23

=Q1'23Volumecontribution%

<=-3%growth>=3%growth

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

9

44.7

OnlineShopping

WhilethedepthofonlineshoppingisincreasinginUAE,itspenetrationrateamong

householdsappearstobereachingaplateaubeforepotentiallytakingoffagain

TotalFMCG|RollingMATPeriods|

E-commercePenetration%

Penetration

45.5

40.0

Mar'21

Mar'22

Mar'23

TotalFMCG|RollingMATPeriods|Online

Volume/ValueProportionvs.Offline%

VolumeShareValueShare

6.1

5.4

5.8

5.3

4.2

4.0

MAR'21

MAR'22

MAR'23

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

Base:Excludingbottledwater

10

Interestingfacts

Thepenetrationrankingofcategories

remainsconsistentbetweenonlineandofflinepurchases>suggestingthatpeople'sbuyingdecisionsareprimarilybasedontheirneeds,whicharesimilarregardlessofthechannelstheychoose.

However,approximately67%ofcategories

(fromall5segments)showhigheraveragepricespaidonlinecomparedtooffline.

Onlyaround11%ofthetop600brands

don’tsellonline>alltherestarealreadythere,albeitwithvaryinglevelsofonlineperformance.

Halfofthesebrandsaresellingata

premiumonlinethanoffline(PI>103).Buttheotherhalfaresellingcheaperthanoffline(PI<97)>indicatingopportunitiesforbothpremiumizationanddiscountingexistsinonlineplatform.

ConvenienceleadingtoconsistentgrowthofonlineshoppingdepthintheUAE

Thesizeofonlinepackpurchasesisgraduallydecreasingtoalignwiththesizeofofflinepurchases

UAEFMCG|MATMar'23|OnlineShoppingIndexedAgainstStore

Mar'21Mar'22Mar'23

109

113

105

156153

135

104103106

7.87.98.9

9.311.313.0

FrequencyNo.ofpacksPackSizeVol/tripAveragePrice

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

Base:Excludingbottledwater

11

ExpatArabsremainattheforefrontofonlineshopping.Increasedparticipationfromothernationalities,especiallythoseinhigherSECgroups,woulddrivefurtheradoptionofthe

channel

OnlineShoppingContributionwithinSegments

MATMar'23|OnlineShoppingVolume/Valuevs.Offline%

6.13

11.2

4.9

4.5

9.3

3.5

5.3

5.2

7.2

4.8

4.6

6.7

8.8

9.9

5.8

5.1

5.4

AllUAEEmiratiExpatArabsSouthAsianSouthEastOthersSECABSECC1SECC2/D

Asians

Volume%Value%

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar,MENA

Base:Excludingbottledwater

12

13

KeyObservations&Conclusions

Overall,theUAEFMCGmarketremainspositiveasitentersapost-pandemicworldwithashift

inconsumerbehavior,adaptationtohypermarkets,andpotentialforgrowthinonlineshopping.However,brandsandretailersmustremainflexibleandkeepacloseeyeonthemarkettrendstoadjusttheirstrategiesaccordingly

Macroeconomy&FMCG

Performance

Non-oilsectors,includingFMCG,

remainpositivedespiteaslowdownintheUAE'smacroeconomy.

Thepandemichasbrough