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Monte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBall®TorunasimulationusingCrystalBall®:1.SetupSpreadsheetBuildaspreadsheetthatwillcalculatetheperformancemeasure(e.g.,profit)intermsoftheinputs(randomornot).Forrandominputs,justenteranynumber.2.DefineAssumptions—i.e.,randomvariablesDefinewhichcellsarerandom,andwhatdistributiontheyshouldfollow.3.DefineForecast—i.e.,outputorperformancemeasureDefinewhichcell(s)youareinterestedinforecasting(typicallytheperformancemeasure,e.g.,profit).4.ChooseNumberofTrialsSelectthenumberoftrials.IfyouwouldlaterliketogeneratetheSensitivityAnalysischart,choose“SensitivityAnalysis”underOptionsinRunPreferences.栋5.Ru死nSim隶ulati筋on奋Runt辽hesi绣mulat璃ion.宅Ifyo勺uwou怕ldli耻keto劲chan脾gepa基ramet巾ersa票ndre晓-run珍thes满imula梁tion,既you稻shoul沿d“re缺set”慨thes同imula允tion醉(clic帜kon翅the“冈Reset弄Simu抢latio论n”bu礼tton叠onth托etoo滴lbar缝orin草the伟Runm狡enu)赵first聪.纲6.Vi商ewRe虚sults蜂Thef斗oreca描stwi婶ndow钳showi腥ngth滋eres况ults口ofth离esim地ulati泉onap芬pears总auto愚matic猛ally亿after诵(or辣durin弓g)th便esim师ulati绩on.M栗anyd占iffer捐entr涛esult展sare嫁avai秋lable中(fre采quenc仍ycha各rt,c莲umula倦tive翁chart嘉,sta物tisti视cs,p滔ercen刷tiles述,sen是sitiv险itya泊nalys稼is,a哗ndtr举endc絮hart)译.The饭resu谋ltsc覆anbe羽copi柏edin难toth纳ewor恳kshee默t.黑Cryst坚alBa侍llTo聪olbar区:匀Defin渗e煤滚Defin惩e炭筹Run僚孙Start崭躺Reset苹股Forec尊ast零寨Trend救Assum大ption雄s约鸡Forec绞ast正背Prefe伴rence野s缝抹Simul摩ation颈滑Simul脂ation钞京Windo估w室趣Chart勤Walto厨nBoo泄kstor樱eSim肯ulati鹅onwi膜thCr伤ystal伞Ball割®匀Recal盼lthe延Walt右onBo贷oksto圆reex膀ample姻:It时isAu敏gust,回and瓦they离must舍decid已ehow水many默ofn显exty绝ear’s娘natu任reca迎lenda炭rsto在orde腾r.Ea路chca蝇lenda穴rcos乔tsth衫eboo途kstor劈e$7.蚁50an傻dis威sold革for$悔10.A肢fter帮Febru刻ary,扬allu柿nsold交cale尚ndars矮are床retur桑nedt耍othe匆publ佳isher讨for尚aref淹undo训f$2.桶50pe贸rcal颗endar储.Sup柿pose遮Walto万npre订dicts之dema肃ndwi术llbe少some纸where抹betw粥een1加00an泪d300电(dis就crete妨unif森orm).宫Deman鞭d抄掘=d~脖Unif搂orm[1脂00,3智00]箭Order愤Quan巷tity君谨=Q(雾decis惊ionv肿ariab蛛le)晌Reven壮ue静街=$10挣*Mi困n(叶Q驻,臭d泳)颠Cost傍彼=$7.拢50*色Q艇Refun沟d淡雁=$2.今50*些Max(扭Q–d么,0)秃Profi构t嫂刻=Rev粉enue割–Cos慨t+R扎efund气Step津#1(S容etup洽Sprea提dshee蚂t)该Walto块nBoo筝kstor称eSim狱ulati焦onwi霉thCr闯ystal给Ball劈®泡Step喝#2(D老efine坝Assu仓mptio炉ns—i.撑e.,r描andom塘vari董ables捞)想Selec雄tthe帐cell醒that贯cont乔ains谦ther退andom检vari奇able愧(B17)予—co询lorc遗ode(泊blue)旱:举andc坦lick您onth灭e“De纳fine涨Assum翼ption倍s”bu旧tton诞into透olbar戒(or麦inth欺eCel貌lmen湾u):洗Selec乳ttyp朱eof猪distr胳ibuti章on:码Provi泽depa捡ramet娘erso扛fdis邻tribu陶tions屠:航Walto妇nBoo殊kstor妻eSim沃ulati找onwi宫thCr乒ystal姑Ball矮®阔Step倍#3(D贝efine充Fore古cast—跌i.e.,偏outp辫ut)谢Selec慢tthe丘cell漂that闪cont朵ains局theo蚁utput座vari阁able码tofo票recas笑t(F1叛7):康click窄ont自he“D汇efine艰Fore尖cast”设butt互onin盆tool测bar(网orin严the训Cell状menu)袜,恨andf瓶illi喇nthe风Defi粥neFo促recas李tdia适logue探box.润Step园#4(C孕hoose摧Numb幻erof疫Tria塞ls)摔Click娇ont隶he“R香unPr者efere失nces”锯butt飘onin箱tool音bar(计orin吐the掠Runm民enu):翅ands睁elect氧the炭numbe素rof牌trial盼sto询run.榜Walto顿nBoo竖kstor逢eSim垃ulati匪onwi狼thCr零ystal赏Ball丛®马Step衬#5(R担unSi钞mulat增ion)奋Click围ont乏he“S炭tart途Simul代ation侦”but盈toni美ntoo沸lbar叔(orR恨unin悉the批Runm贼enu):破Step亲#6(V樱iewR浆esult胶s)跌Ther掌esult包sof誓thes茂imula势tion视canb谁evie馋wedi景nav济ariet奉yof汪diffe吩rent声ways格(freq富uency察char宫t,cu重mulat丽ivec振hart,齐stat尚istic古s,an婚dper肾centi坛les).茫Choo士sedi轿ffere扔ntop哑tions挽unde领rthe值View吹menu爱int京hefo微recas池twin齿dow.遇Ther浊esult任scan快bec畏opied饰into扇awo逼rkshe茫etor顷Word萄docu发ment天(choo雨seCo虑pyun泰dert睛heEd蹦itme中nuin顾the响simul比ation开outp滤utwi糖ndow.臂Using易Tren碧dCha疫rtst轿oFin秃dthe插Impa贫ctof针Orde乓rQua姐ntity历onP紫otent棉ialP色rofit携Defin班esev挪eral戴forec傍astc比ells屋(G14:勾G18)打fors杜evera侍lpos刺sible殊orde泽rqua跨ntiti抢es(Q观=100,陪150,驾200,窃250,就300)册.Use蓝the吼same踩rando厕mord油erqu括antit躺yfor时each智toc忍ompar求ethe缸mmor着eequ黄ally拆(i.e.闹,one贯assu场mptio蛾ncel赞lfor脚dema院nd—C1赔4—wit药hthe漫rest情set怜equal每toC字14).交After熊runn坐ingt拔hesi残mulat虎ion,胀choos郑e“Op惜enTr叛endC甘hart”德int北heRu斧nmen揪u.Th唤isch对artg棒ives匠“cert逆ainty惊band奔s”fo惠rthe丑fore杯cast走cells滩.10%珍oft浓heti奥me,t裙hepr露oject可dura群tion锹will我fall秒withi欣nthe雷inne遇rban呈d(li灾ghtb帽lue),融25%姜ofth货etim痰ewit摧hint冲he2壶nd端band解(red意),50坡%of筒thet汇imew阶ithin绩the梳third枝band吗(gre脂en),械and9除0%of保the顾time卧withi劈nthe良outs撞ideb充and(匀dark娱blue)巨.什Proje圣ctMa欠nagem粮ent—G利lobal静Oil害Globa惰lOil群isp抽lanni支ngto比move黄thei男rcre疾ditc传ardo奶perat予iont迫o昂DesM会oines奔,顾Iowa团from纠thei棵rhom戴eoff炉icei忘n躺Dalla财s奴.The袍move忍invo具lves吸many押diffe漂rent款divis稻ions近withi书nthe络comp致any.玩Real爹estat佛emus寇tsel高ecto熟neof烛thre鸦eava小ilabl方eoff掌ices扎ites.余Pers苏onnel伐has耀tode颤termi锹newh滥iche轻mploy模eesf画rom悦Dalla暴s三will岛move执,how骑many总new乳emplo波yees稿tohi乖re,a蒸ndwh的owil冻ltra朝inth磨em.T其hesy闯stems练grou企pand荡trea拦surer你’sof果fice居must赵organ聋izet良hene厕wope预ratin专gpro疑cedur相eand萌make塞fina父ncial馆arra艘ngeme屿nts.叶Thea准rchit柿ects往will计have爬tode勒sign弱thei墓nteri快orsp述ace,晕ando蜘verse郊enee侄deds巨truct统ural三impro凑vemen歼ts.E狂achs遍itei向san裤exist暂ingb也uildi渗ngwi陡thsu勿ffici灰ento本pens拔pace,疑but写offic阔epar突titio哪ns,c躲omput你erfa叹cilit窄ies,梨furni宫shing柱s,an江dso轻on,m片usta球llbe川prov粘ided.傍Acom骨plica还ting爹facto序ris锄that寇there雹isa绞nint铁erdep梁enden庙ceof前acti茶vitie寇s.In熊othe掘rwor拔ds,s蓝omep帝arts远ofth蚂epro沾ject哄canno降tbe隔start哪edun薯tilo描ther陪parts畏are束compl粮eted.险For鞋examp混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